4918 Concannon Ct San Diego, CA 92130

[streak]

So we are soon going to be house hunting in the Carmel valley/Del Mar area.

The house above and this one

13496 El Presidio Trl San Diego, CA 92130

would be the type of home we would be looking at.
Zillow shows both of these with declining price trends.

Would either of these be good buys at their current prices? In real terms we will probably be renting in SD once we arrive in August with a view to buying sometime during the 12 month (or less) rental period but we need to start understanding the correlation between what Zillow says and what the actual facts are!!

[CA renter]

Without knowing much about Carmel Valley, it might be a good idea to look at pricing trends from 1970-present. Many of us think that it’s unwise to buy anything priced higher than 2001 levels.

Different areas behave differently. Do NOT expect your realtor to do the work for you. YOU need to be the one who investigates pricing trends over time. Realtors often take advantage of a buyer’s ignorance when they come from somewhere else.

Understand how Prop 13 works, and do not take “seller concessions” in lieu of a discounted price. You will be paying taxes for those “concessions” for as long as you own that house. It is key to get the house for the lowest price possible.

Know that 2001 was already nearing the top of the “normal” real estate cycle (everything after that was a result of the massive credit bubble). I cannot stress enough the need for you to do your own research. Check public records, and take a look at how different areas performed during the 1970-2001 period, then see what happened after that. Come to your own conclusions based on what you find during your research.

Do not rely on Zillow or any other home price valuation tool. Look at closed sales over the years (the longer term, the better), and realize that many of the sales in the 2003-2007 period were based on fraud/loans that could not be paid back — they are not a legitimate reflection of the true value of houses. Do not price anchor to bubble prices. Anchor to pre-bubble prices (2001 and before).

Good luck!

[CA renter]

Without knowing much about Carmel Valley, it might be a good idea to look at pricing trends from 1970-present. Many of us think that it’s unwise to buy anything priced higher than 2001 levels.

Different areas behave differently. Do NOT expect your realtor to do the work for you. YOU need to be the one who investigates pricing trends over time. Realtors often take advantage of a buyer’s ignorance when they come from somewhere else.

Understand how Prop 13 works, and do not take “seller concessions” in lieu of a discounted price. You will be paying taxes for those “concessions” for as long as you own that house. It is key to get the house for the lowest price possible.

Know that 2001 was already nearing the top of the “normal” real estate cycle (everything after that was a result of the massive credit bubble). I cannot stress enough the need for you to do your own research. Check public records, and take a look at how different areas performed during the 1970-2001 period, then see what happened after that. Come to your own conclusions based on what you find during your research.

Do not rely on Zillow or any other home price valuation tool. Look at closed sales over the years (the longer term, the better), and realize that many of the sales in the 2003-2007 period were based on fraud/loans that could not be paid back — they are not a legitimate reflection of the true value of houses. Do not price anchor to bubble prices. Anchor to pre-bubble prices (2001 and before).

Good luck!

[CA renter]

Without knowing much about Carmel Valley, it might be a good idea to look at pricing trends from 1970-present. Many of us think that it’s unwise to buy anything priced higher than 2001 levels.

Different areas behave differently. Do NOT expect your realtor to do the work for you. YOU need to be the one who investigates pricing trends over time. Realtors often take advantage of a buyer’s ignorance when they come from somewhere else.

Understand how Prop 13 works, and do not take “seller concessions” in lieu of a discounted price. You will be paying taxes for those “concessions” for as long as you own that house. It is key to get the house for the lowest price possible.

Know that 2001 was already nearing the top of the “normal” real estate cycle (everything after that was a result of the massive credit bubble). I cannot stress enough the need for you to do your own research. Check public records, and take a look at how different areas performed during the 1970-2001 period, then see what happened after that. Come to your own conclusions based on what you find during your research.

Do not rely on Zillow or any other home price valuation tool. Look at closed sales over the years (the longer term, the better), and realize that many of the sales in the 2003-2007 period were based on fraud/loans that could not be paid back — they are not a legitimate reflection of the true value of houses. Do not price anchor to bubble prices. Anchor to pre-bubble prices (2001 and before).

Good luck!

[CA renter]

Without knowing much about Carmel Valley, it might be a good idea to look at pricing trends from 1970-present. Many of us think that it’s unwise to buy anything priced higher than 2001 levels.

Different areas behave differently. Do NOT expect your realtor to do the work for you. YOU need to be the one who investigates pricing trends over time. Realtors often take advantage of a buyer’s ignorance when they come from somewhere else.

Understand how Prop 13 works, and do not take “seller concessions” in lieu of a discounted price. You will be paying taxes for those “concessions” for as long as you own that house. It is key to get the house for the lowest price possible.

Know that 2001 was already nearing the top of the “normal” real estate cycle (everything after that was a result of the massive credit bubble). I cannot stress enough the need for you to do your own research. Check public records, and take a look at how different areas performed during the 1970-2001 period, then see what happened after that. Come to your own conclusions based on what you find during your research.

Do not rely on Zillow or any other home price valuation tool. Look at closed sales over the years (the longer term, the better), and realize that many of the sales in the 2003-2007 period were based on fraud/loans that could not be paid back — they are not a legitimate reflection of the true value of houses. Do not price anchor to bubble prices. Anchor to pre-bubble prices (2001 and before).

Good luck!

[CA renter]

Without knowing much about Carmel Valley, it might be a good idea to look at pricing trends from 1970-present. Many of us think that it’s unwise to buy anything priced higher than 2001 levels.

Different areas behave differently. Do NOT expect your realtor to do the work for you. YOU need to be the one who investigates pricing trends over time. Realtors often take advantage of a buyer’s ignorance when they come from somewhere else.

Understand how Prop 13 works, and do not take “seller concessions” in lieu of a discounted price. You will be paying taxes for those “concessions” for as long as you own that house. It is key to get the house for the lowest price possible.

Know that 2001 was already nearing the top of the “normal” real estate cycle (everything after that was a result of the massive credit bubble). I cannot stress enough the need for you to do your own research. Check public records, and take a look at how different areas performed during the 1970-2001 period, then see what happened after that. Come to your own conclusions based on what you find during your research.

Do not rely on Zillow or any other home price valuation tool. Look at closed sales over the years (the longer term, the better), and realize that many of the sales in the 2003-2007 period were based on fraud/loans that could not be paid back — they are not a legitimate reflection of the true value of houses. Do not price anchor to bubble prices. Anchor to pre-bubble prices (2001 and before).

Good luck!

[streak]

Many thanks CAr.
I agree on doing ones own research, which is why I have been following the wise folks here for some time!!
Interesting to use prices at 2001 levels as a guideline.

Most Carmel Valley properties appear to be newer so one cant go back as far as 1970 and the one above was only built in 2003.

Where’s the best place to look at closed sales over the years?

Moving house is quite daunting, moving countries, now that’s a challenge! As it happens our home here is on show today, hold thumbs!!

[streak]

Many thanks CAr.
I agree on doing ones own research, which is why I have been following the wise folks here for some time!!
Interesting to use prices at 2001 levels as a guideline.

Most Carmel Valley properties appear to be newer so one cant go back as far as 1970 and the one above was only built in 2003.

Where’s the best place to look at closed sales over the years?

Moving house is quite daunting, moving countries, now that’s a challenge! As it happens our home here is on show today, hold thumbs!!

[streak]

Many thanks CAr.
I agree on doing ones own research, which is why I have been following the wise folks here for some time!!
Interesting to use prices at 2001 levels as a guideline.

Most Carmel Valley properties appear to be newer so one cant go back as far as 1970 and the one above was only built in 2003.

Where’s the best place to look at closed sales over the years?

Moving house is quite daunting, moving countries, now that’s a challenge! As it happens our home here is on show today, hold thumbs!!

[streak]

Many thanks CAr.
I agree on doing ones own research, which is why I have been following the wise folks here for some time!!
Interesting to use prices at 2001 levels as a guideline.

Most Carmel Valley properties appear to be newer so one cant go back as far as 1970 and the one above was only built in 2003.

Where’s the best place to look at closed sales over the years?

Moving house is quite daunting, moving countries, now that’s a challenge! As it happens our home here is on show today, hold thumbs!!

[streak]

Many thanks CAr.
I agree on doing ones own research, which is why I have been following the wise folks here for some time!!
Interesting to use prices at 2001 levels as a guideline.

Most Carmel Valley properties appear to be newer so one cant go back as far as 1970 and the one above was only built in 2003.

Where’s the best place to look at closed sales over the years?

Moving house is quite daunting, moving countries, now that’s a challenge! As it happens our home here is on show today, hold thumbs!!

[zk]

You’re not going to find anything in CV at 2001 prices. Not now, not ever. Carmel Valley single family homes, at best (lowest), are at late 2003 levels. Which are a solid 50% higher than 2001 prices. While real values in CV have a slight chance of dropping 50% at some point, nominal prices will never approach 2001 levels.

I think that a lot of buyer demand has been moved earlier by the fed gov’t handouts, which will make it relatively hard for sellers to find buyers for a while now that they’ve ended. You’ve now got the state handout, which may help things for a while, but apparently the money for that won’t last long.

I’d give prices a twenty percent chance of coming down 10%. Odds are they won’t drop even that much, if they drop at all.

[zk]

You’re not going to find anything in CV at 2001 prices. Not now, not ever. Carmel Valley single family homes, at best (lowest), are at late 2003 levels. Which are a solid 50% higher than 2001 prices. While real values in CV have a slight chance of dropping 50% at some point, nominal prices will never approach 2001 levels.

I think that a lot of buyer demand has been moved earlier by the fed gov’t handouts, which will make it relatively hard for sellers to find buyers for a while now that they’ve ended. You’ve now got the state handout, which may help things for a while, but apparently the money for that won’t last long.

I’d give prices a twenty percent chance of coming down 10%. Odds are they won’t drop even that much, if they drop at all.

[zk]

You’re not going to find anything in CV at 2001 prices. Not now, not ever. Carmel Valley single family homes, at best (lowest), are at late 2003 levels. Which are a solid 50% higher than 2001 prices. While real values in CV have a slight chance of dropping 50% at some point, nominal prices will never approach 2001 levels.

I think that a lot of buyer demand has been moved earlier by the fed gov’t handouts, which will make it relatively hard for sellers to find buyers for a while now that they’ve ended. You’ve now got the state handout, which may help things for a while, but apparently the money for that won’t last long.

I’d give prices a twenty percent chance of coming down 10%. Odds are they won’t drop even that much, if they drop at all.

[zk]

You’re not going to find anything in CV at 2001 prices. Not now, not ever. Carmel Valley single family homes, at best (lowest), are at late 2003 levels. Which are a solid 50% higher than 2001 prices. While real values in CV have a slight chance of dropping 50% at some point, nominal prices will never approach 2001 levels.

I think that a lot of buyer demand has been moved earlier by the fed gov’t handouts, which will make it relatively hard for sellers to find buyers for a while now that they’ve ended. You’ve now got the state handout, which may help things for a while, but apparently the money for that won’t last long.

I’d give prices a twenty percent chance of coming down 10%. Odds are they won’t drop even that much, if they drop at all.

[Author]

Posts