3-5 year plan…gold and oil?

[stockstradr]

Stocks I was buying this last Friday:

PTR: Petrochina
PBR: Petrobras

Oil stocks selling at prices ranging from 5X to 8X trailing earnings. Oil at $77/bbl. I hesitate to use the phrase “sure bet” but these oil stocks sure look like easy money…acknowledging it could take us a couple years (+/- a year) to get through this recession, and see oil demand start rising again. These are stocks that will pay off big but that may require holding them for five years or more.

Of SHI, CEO, PTR, for some reason the pro’s seem to prefer PTR. I noticed the pro’s were already buying PTR in the early morning on Friday (in a morning session where the DOW fell 700 pts in six minutes!), so I bought much more of PTR than the other Chinese oil companies. By end-of-day the pro’s had bid it up about 9% off session lows, then it pulled back to +7% for the day – still far better day move than for the others. I’m not sure why the pros like PTR over the other China oil companies.

However, my purchases of oil companies on Friday only reached 10% of portfolio. I’m holding back on the chance we might see even lower prices on these stocks. After all, weren’t “trailing earnings” calculated when oil was well over $100/bbl? Now oil is at $77/bbl and falling. Yet, obviously OPEC does NOT like oil below $100/bbl, and they are going to do something about that at this coming month’s emergency OPEC session.

However, I was willing to start buying those stocks on Friday because in previous day session China Shanghai had finally pulled back near to the Sept 18 low of 1900, and the Hang Seng had reached new lows.

I also bought PBR. Brazil has recently announced a “major oil discovery” off their coast. “the head of Brazil’s National Petroleum Agency, Haroldo Lima, said the strike could be one of the world’s biggest oil discoveries in decades, containing as much as 33 billion barrels in oil equivalent.”

Even without that news, PBR is a good buy. P/E = 8.

Did you know I bought PBR back in about June ’04 for about $6.50/share. True. Then I patted myself on the back for selling it a few months later for about $7/share. Then after I sold it, it promptly went to $70/share. WARNING: this is the story of my life with stocks. I am very accurate picking winners. I can pick the right time when to buy those winners. Yet, I make my mistake by selling WAY TOO EARLY. So if anything doubt my advice on when to sell good stocks!

Russian oil companies are even cheaper, but are you willing to risk the chance of the Russian government nationalizing their oil companies right out of the hands of common stockholders? I see that as a significant risk, particularly the way things are going in their financial markets! After all, they already nationalized their oil fields out of the hands of American oil companies!

What will be the bottom for the SEE Composite? http://www.sse.com.cn/sseportal/en_us/ps/home.shtml
Your guess is good as mine; however, instincts tell me that China’s stock markets bottom before ours, and most importantly will start recovering sooner AND will have far more appreciation over the next 5-10 years than will US markets. Shit, US stock markets might STILL be declining five years from now. Also that last bottom (June 2005) the SEE Composite hit 1,000. Do we really think it could go THAT low again? I don’t think so. My GUESS is: 1,300 to 1,500.

(So if you never sold your US stock funds and saw them drop 40%, you might consider now trading them in for Chinese stocks.)

Wanna gamble? How about buying Goldman Sachs for a price far below that paid by the World’s Greatest Investor (Warren Buffet)!

When’s the last time you had a chance to step a few weeks after Buffet bought and outsmart him and buy the same company at even a cheaper price? I bought GS on Friday to the tune of only 1% of portfolio; that’s all I’m willing to gamble. So far, I’m up 9% on that stock in 24 hours. So far, so good.

Also, the sure bet is gold – yet last week instead of just going with the sure bet, I instead fooled around trying to buy US stocks ahead of an expected Fool’s Rally (that never came). So I lost plenty on that move.

I need to remember the basics: go with the SURE BET, even if the sure bet lacks glam and is boring and requires waiting five years for the big payoff. Shorting the dollar through buying gold/Euro/RMB; that is the sure bet.

Gold fell to about $845 on Friday. I shifted some of my short market positions (which I’ve lost my ass on) to the tune of 10% of my portfolio into gold. Here’s my logic: Previously, I procrastinated and missed my chance to buy at $750 (Sept 11). Then it climbed up to $920. Then it pulled back to $835 and I repeated same mistake of not buying. Soon it rallied back to $910.

Then last few days we see it sitting at $845. I figure time to quit procrastinating and buy gold and hold for about five years. Otherwise, if keep waiting for that wished-for lower gold price, I’ll probably *blink* and a week later find gold climbed to $1000/ounce and I didn’t own a dime of it.

I also bought a China fund (FXI) and a Jap fund (JSC) to the tune of about 4% of portfolio each. FXI alone moved up about 7% on Friday.

So the sure bets are buying oil, gold, and Chinese stocks at the bottom, then hold ’em for the long haul as in five years or more.

[SmellsFeeshy]

I used to prefer PBR back in college but these days I’d rather go with a nice microbrew.

[SmellsFeeshy]

I used to prefer PBR back in college but these days I’d rather go with a nice microbrew.

[SmellsFeeshy]

I used to prefer PBR back in college but these days I’d rather go with a nice microbrew.

[SmellsFeeshy]

I used to prefer PBR back in college but these days I’d rather go with a nice microbrew.

[SmellsFeeshy]

I used to prefer PBR back in college but these days I’d rather go with a nice microbrew.

[peterb]

For those of you that are statistically oriented:
I took this from another poster on another site. So I cant take credit. But it’s very telling.
————————————————

Largest daily percentage gains, DOW
Rank – Date – Close – Net Change – % Change

———————————-

1 1933-03-15 62.10 +8.26 +15.34
2 1931-10-06 99.34 +12.86 +14.87
3 1929-10-30 258.47 +28.40 +12.34
4 1932-09-21 75.16 +7.67 +11.36
5 2008-10-13 9,387.61 +936.42 +11.08
6 1987-10-21 2,027.85 +186.84 +10.15
7 1932-08-03 58.22 +5.06 +9.52
8 1932-02-11 78.60 +6.80 +9.47
9 1929-11-14 217.28 +18.59 +9.36
10 1931-12-18 80.69 +6.90 +9.35
11 1932-02-13 85.82 +7.22 +9.19
12 1932-05-06 59.01 +4.91 +9.08
13 1933-04-19 68.31 +5.66 +9.03
14 1931-10-08 105.79 +8.47 +8.70
15 1932-06-10 48.94 +3.62 +7.99
16 1939-09-05 148.12 +10.03 +7.26
17 1931-06-03 130.37 +8.67 +7.12
18 1932-01-06 76.31 +5.07 +7.12
19 1932-10-14 63.84 +4.08 +6.83
20 1907-03-15 81.33 +5.10 +6.69

Today’s move was in fifth place. The top four all occurred during the Great Depression.

[peterb]

For those of you that are statistically oriented:
I took this from another poster on another site. So I cant take credit. But it’s very telling.
————————————————

Largest daily percentage gains, DOW
Rank – Date – Close – Net Change – % Change

———————————-

1 1933-03-15 62.10 +8.26 +15.34
2 1931-10-06 99.34 +12.86 +14.87
3 1929-10-30 258.47 +28.40 +12.34
4 1932-09-21 75.16 +7.67 +11.36
5 2008-10-13 9,387.61 +936.42 +11.08
6 1987-10-21 2,027.85 +186.84 +10.15
7 1932-08-03 58.22 +5.06 +9.52
8 1932-02-11 78.60 +6.80 +9.47
9 1929-11-14 217.28 +18.59 +9.36
10 1931-12-18 80.69 +6.90 +9.35
11 1932-02-13 85.82 +7.22 +9.19
12 1932-05-06 59.01 +4.91 +9.08
13 1933-04-19 68.31 +5.66 +9.03
14 1931-10-08 105.79 +8.47 +8.70
15 1932-06-10 48.94 +3.62 +7.99
16 1939-09-05 148.12 +10.03 +7.26
17 1931-06-03 130.37 +8.67 +7.12
18 1932-01-06 76.31 +5.07 +7.12
19 1932-10-14 63.84 +4.08 +6.83
20 1907-03-15 81.33 +5.10 +6.69

Today’s move was in fifth place. The top four all occurred during the Great Depression.

[peterb]

For those of you that are statistically oriented:
I took this from another poster on another site. So I cant take credit. But it’s very telling.
————————————————

Largest daily percentage gains, DOW
Rank – Date – Close – Net Change – % Change

———————————-

1 1933-03-15 62.10 +8.26 +15.34
2 1931-10-06 99.34 +12.86 +14.87
3 1929-10-30 258.47 +28.40 +12.34
4 1932-09-21 75.16 +7.67 +11.36
5 2008-10-13 9,387.61 +936.42 +11.08
6 1987-10-21 2,027.85 +186.84 +10.15
7 1932-08-03 58.22 +5.06 +9.52
8 1932-02-11 78.60 +6.80 +9.47
9 1929-11-14 217.28 +18.59 +9.36
10 1931-12-18 80.69 +6.90 +9.35
11 1932-02-13 85.82 +7.22 +9.19
12 1932-05-06 59.01 +4.91 +9.08
13 1933-04-19 68.31 +5.66 +9.03
14 1931-10-08 105.79 +8.47 +8.70
15 1932-06-10 48.94 +3.62 +7.99
16 1939-09-05 148.12 +10.03 +7.26
17 1931-06-03 130.37 +8.67 +7.12
18 1932-01-06 76.31 +5.07 +7.12
19 1932-10-14 63.84 +4.08 +6.83
20 1907-03-15 81.33 +5.10 +6.69

Today’s move was in fifth place. The top four all occurred during the Great Depression.

[peterb]

For those of you that are statistically oriented:
I took this from another poster on another site. So I cant take credit. But it’s very telling.
————————————————

Largest daily percentage gains, DOW
Rank – Date – Close – Net Change – % Change

———————————-

1 1933-03-15 62.10 +8.26 +15.34
2 1931-10-06 99.34 +12.86 +14.87
3 1929-10-30 258.47 +28.40 +12.34
4 1932-09-21 75.16 +7.67 +11.36
5 2008-10-13 9,387.61 +936.42 +11.08
6 1987-10-21 2,027.85 +186.84 +10.15
7 1932-08-03 58.22 +5.06 +9.52
8 1932-02-11 78.60 +6.80 +9.47
9 1929-11-14 217.28 +18.59 +9.36
10 1931-12-18 80.69 +6.90 +9.35
11 1932-02-13 85.82 +7.22 +9.19
12 1932-05-06 59.01 +4.91 +9.08
13 1933-04-19 68.31 +5.66 +9.03
14 1931-10-08 105.79 +8.47 +8.70
15 1932-06-10 48.94 +3.62 +7.99
16 1939-09-05 148.12 +10.03 +7.26
17 1931-06-03 130.37 +8.67 +7.12
18 1932-01-06 76.31 +5.07 +7.12
19 1932-10-14 63.84 +4.08 +6.83
20 1907-03-15 81.33 +5.10 +6.69

Today’s move was in fifth place. The top four all occurred during the Great Depression.

[peterb]

For those of you that are statistically oriented:
I took this from another poster on another site. So I cant take credit. But it’s very telling.
————————————————

Largest daily percentage gains, DOW
Rank – Date – Close – Net Change – % Change

———————————-

1 1933-03-15 62.10 +8.26 +15.34
2 1931-10-06 99.34 +12.86 +14.87
3 1929-10-30 258.47 +28.40 +12.34
4 1932-09-21 75.16 +7.67 +11.36
5 2008-10-13 9,387.61 +936.42 +11.08
6 1987-10-21 2,027.85 +186.84 +10.15
7 1932-08-03 58.22 +5.06 +9.52
8 1932-02-11 78.60 +6.80 +9.47
9 1929-11-14 217.28 +18.59 +9.36
10 1931-12-18 80.69 +6.90 +9.35
11 1932-02-13 85.82 +7.22 +9.19
12 1932-05-06 59.01 +4.91 +9.08
13 1933-04-19 68.31 +5.66 +9.03
14 1931-10-08 105.79 +8.47 +8.70
15 1932-06-10 48.94 +3.62 +7.99
16 1939-09-05 148.12 +10.03 +7.26
17 1931-06-03 130.37 +8.67 +7.12
18 1932-01-06 76.31 +5.07 +7.12
19 1932-10-14 63.84 +4.08 +6.83
20 1907-03-15 81.33 +5.10 +6.69

Today’s move was in fifth place. The top four all occurred during the Great Depression.

[stockstradr]

Microbrew?
🙂
I’ll stick with “PBR”

PBR: up over 30% today. Nice. Refreshing!

[stockstradr]

Microbrew?
🙂
I’ll stick with “PBR”

PBR: up over 30% today. Nice. Refreshing!

[stockstradr]

Microbrew?
🙂
I’ll stick with “PBR”

PBR: up over 30% today. Nice. Refreshing!

[stockstradr]

Microbrew?
🙂
I’ll stick with “PBR”

PBR: up over 30% today. Nice. Refreshing!

[Author]

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