30 YR Mortgage Rates vs. 10 YR Bond vs. FFR

[HLS]

SD, it’s still an OK barometer on day to day moves, but not foolproof. You cannot assume the 30 YR rate by where the 10 YR is. Will see if the 2008 spread holds or widens.

Point agreed that I don’t think we will see a huge move up in the 10 YR and a drop in the 30 YR.

My point was that when the FED cuts rates, many think that 30 YR rates will go down. The FFR is now 325 bps lower and 30 YR rates are back where they were before the first cut last summer.

If the 10 YR gets back to 5% or above, I imagine that 30 YR rates will be considerably higher than 6.25%

Payments on a $417K loan are now much higher than just several months ago.

In January, 30 YR fixed were at 5.25% for a few days, and were at 5.375% in January and in March…
They have been below 5.875% most of this year.

Is it up up and away or back into the 5’s ?? I DUNNO.

[stansd]

I saw a post on calculated risk where they had run a regression on the 30 year fixed mortgage vs. the 10 yr bond. Dont remember the R^2, but the fit looked plenty good for me to take it to the bank as a heuristic.

Stan

[stansd]

I saw a post on calculated risk where they had run a regression on the 30 year fixed mortgage vs. the 10 yr bond. Dont remember the R^2, but the fit looked plenty good for me to take it to the bank as a heuristic.

Stan

[stansd]

I saw a post on calculated risk where they had run a regression on the 30 year fixed mortgage vs. the 10 yr bond. Dont remember the R^2, but the fit looked plenty good for me to take it to the bank as a heuristic.

Stan

[stansd]

I saw a post on calculated risk where they had run a regression on the 30 year fixed mortgage vs. the 10 yr bond. Dont remember the R^2, but the fit looked plenty good for me to take it to the bank as a heuristic.

Stan

[stansd]

I saw a post on calculated risk where they had run a regression on the 30 year fixed mortgage vs. the 10 yr bond. Dont remember the R^2, but the fit looked plenty good for me to take it to the bank as a heuristic.

Stan

[capeman]

The FFR only affects or tries to affect the short end of the bond curve. When the short end rises it puts the pressure on the Fed to raise in line.

[capeman]

The FFR only affects or tries to affect the short end of the bond curve. When the short end rises it puts the pressure on the Fed to raise in line.

[capeman]

The FFR only affects or tries to affect the short end of the bond curve. When the short end rises it puts the pressure on the Fed to raise in line.

[capeman]

The FFR only affects or tries to affect the short end of the bond curve. When the short end rises it puts the pressure on the Fed to raise in line.

[capeman]

The FFR only affects or tries to affect the short end of the bond curve. When the short end rises it puts the pressure on the Fed to raise in line.

[Author]

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