18-years house market cycle

[civrealtor]

I recently read a book “Boom and Bust” by an author that wrote another book about 20 years ago which predicted 1992 recession. In his new book, he is predicting that we will have another recession in 2010. What’s his reason? He explained about the average 18-year cycle that exists in the last 200 years of historical data. I agree with his argument in the book, in another word, people should be careful in buying houses now days, especially if you need to stretch out to do that. Anyone familiar with the book or topic are welcome to comment.

[Ash Housewares]

I have not read the book, but I am skeptical of looking at 200 year old trends to predict the next downturn. Our economy has gone from agrarian to industrial to research/intellectual, so why should business cycles occur with the same frequency?

[Ash Housewares]

I have not read the book, but I am skeptical of looking at 200 year old trends to predict the next downturn. Our economy has gone from agrarian to industrial to research/intellectual, so why should business cycles occur with the same frequency?

[Ash Housewares]

I have not read the book, but I am skeptical of looking at 200 year old trends to predict the next downturn. Our economy has gone from agrarian to industrial to research/intellectual, so why should business cycles occur with the same frequency?

[Ash Housewares]

I have not read the book, but I am skeptical of looking at 200 year old trends to predict the next downturn. Our economy has gone from agrarian to industrial to research/intellectual, so why should business cycles occur with the same frequency?

[Ash Housewares]

I have not read the book, but I am skeptical of looking at 200 year old trends to predict the next downturn. Our economy has gone from agrarian to industrial to research/intellectual, so why should business cycles occur with the same frequency?

[4plexowner]

Human lifespan has increased as well – that could affect some of the longer cycles

The Kondratieff cycle (50-60 years) makes a lot of sense to me but, depending on whose interpretation of the cycle you use, we are several years past the point where the cycle should have peaked (1999/2000 would have been more consistent with past K-cycles)

Some people explain the increased duration of the K-cycle by pointing out that the cycle length may increase as the average human’s lifespan increases

Other analysts point to the massive financial engineering going on and suggest that these shenanigans affect the K-cycle (Keynesian economists believe they can eliminate the K-cycle and all other business cycles via monetary policy)

I like what Richard Russell has to say about cycles: “Where are they when you need them?” [Richard doesn’t put much credence in cycles]

Here’s Murray Rothbard poking holes in the idea of K-cycles: http://www.lewrockwell.com/rothbard/rothbard44.html

I put cycle theories in the same category as Elliott Wave theory – they are both intellectually satisfying when applied to historic data but almost useless for predicting the future

[4plexowner]

Human lifespan has increased as well – that could affect some of the longer cycles

The Kondratieff cycle (50-60 years) makes a lot of sense to me but, depending on whose interpretation of the cycle you use, we are several years past the point where the cycle should have peaked (1999/2000 would have been more consistent with past K-cycles)

Some people explain the increased duration of the K-cycle by pointing out that the cycle length may increase as the average human’s lifespan increases

Other analysts point to the massive financial engineering going on and suggest that these shenanigans affect the K-cycle (Keynesian economists believe they can eliminate the K-cycle and all other business cycles via monetary policy)

I like what Richard Russell has to say about cycles: “Where are they when you need them?” [Richard doesn’t put much credence in cycles]

Here’s Murray Rothbard poking holes in the idea of K-cycles: http://www.lewrockwell.com/rothbard/rothbard44.html

I put cycle theories in the same category as Elliott Wave theory – they are both intellectually satisfying when applied to historic data but almost useless for predicting the future

[4plexowner]

Human lifespan has increased as well – that could affect some of the longer cycles

The Kondratieff cycle (50-60 years) makes a lot of sense to me but, depending on whose interpretation of the cycle you use, we are several years past the point where the cycle should have peaked (1999/2000 would have been more consistent with past K-cycles)

Some people explain the increased duration of the K-cycle by pointing out that the cycle length may increase as the average human’s lifespan increases

Other analysts point to the massive financial engineering going on and suggest that these shenanigans affect the K-cycle (Keynesian economists believe they can eliminate the K-cycle and all other business cycles via monetary policy)

I like what Richard Russell has to say about cycles: “Where are they when you need them?” [Richard doesn’t put much credence in cycles]

Here’s Murray Rothbard poking holes in the idea of K-cycles: http://www.lewrockwell.com/rothbard/rothbard44.html

I put cycle theories in the same category as Elliott Wave theory – they are both intellectually satisfying when applied to historic data but almost useless for predicting the future

[4plexowner]

Human lifespan has increased as well – that could affect some of the longer cycles

The Kondratieff cycle (50-60 years) makes a lot of sense to me but, depending on whose interpretation of the cycle you use, we are several years past the point where the cycle should have peaked (1999/2000 would have been more consistent with past K-cycles)

Some people explain the increased duration of the K-cycle by pointing out that the cycle length may increase as the average human’s lifespan increases

Other analysts point to the massive financial engineering going on and suggest that these shenanigans affect the K-cycle (Keynesian economists believe they can eliminate the K-cycle and all other business cycles via monetary policy)

I like what Richard Russell has to say about cycles: “Where are they when you need them?” [Richard doesn’t put much credence in cycles]

Here’s Murray Rothbard poking holes in the idea of K-cycles: http://www.lewrockwell.com/rothbard/rothbard44.html

I put cycle theories in the same category as Elliott Wave theory – they are both intellectually satisfying when applied to historic data but almost useless for predicting the future

[4plexowner]

Human lifespan has increased as well – that could affect some of the longer cycles

The Kondratieff cycle (50-60 years) makes a lot of sense to me but, depending on whose interpretation of the cycle you use, we are several years past the point where the cycle should have peaked (1999/2000 would have been more consistent with past K-cycles)

Some people explain the increased duration of the K-cycle by pointing out that the cycle length may increase as the average human’s lifespan increases

Other analysts point to the massive financial engineering going on and suggest that these shenanigans affect the K-cycle (Keynesian economists believe they can eliminate the K-cycle and all other business cycles via monetary policy)

I like what Richard Russell has to say about cycles: “Where are they when you need them?” [Richard doesn’t put much credence in cycles]

Here’s Murray Rothbard poking holes in the idea of K-cycles: http://www.lewrockwell.com/rothbard/rothbard44.html

I put cycle theories in the same category as Elliott Wave theory – they are both intellectually satisfying when applied to historic data but almost useless for predicting the future

[Author]

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