- This topic has 23 replies, 13 voices, and was last updated 18 years, 2 months ago by
bubble_contagion.
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February 21, 2006 at 8:54 PM #6378February 21, 2006 at 9:18 PM #23457
teatsonabull
ParticipantEvisceration….
1) Can’t rent out that investment property to cover your costs
2) Can’t sell because the homebuilder is offering your exact same model for 30% less (see Sacramento)
3) Can’t afford carrying costs
4) Fall behind on mortgage for 2nd or 3rd property…perhaps lose the house
5) Screw up your credit so no more REFIs, no more purchases for a LONG time
6) Your I/O negative amortizing loan resets and you start to lose your PRIMARY residence
7) Your Hummer H2 breaks down and you can’t afford to fix it.
8) You learn that there is no such thing as a secondary market for a USED Hummer H2 so you can’t sell it.
9) Gas goes up 1-penny per gallon and pushes you completely over the cliff as you couldn’t afford any of this S*%t to begin with…
10) Finally, they come and take that McMansion off your hands (they=the bank w/his buddy the sheriff)
11) From here on out the only thing you (the former investor) will be “camping out” for is government cheese.Since I feel somewhat sorry for your gullibility…feel free to “dive my dumpster”…trash day is Wednesday.
February 21, 2006 at 9:27 PM #23458ParticipantEvisceration….
1) Can’t rent out that investment property to cover your costs
2) Can’t sell because the homebuilder is offering your exact same model for 30% less (see Sacramento)
3) Can’t afford carrying costs
4) Fall behind on mortgage for 2nd or 3rd property…perhaps lose the house
5) Screw up your credit so no more REFIs, no more purchases for a LONG time
6) Your I/O negative amortizing loan resets and you start to lose your PRIMARY residence
7) Your Hummer H2 breaks down and you can’t afford to fix it.
8) You learn that there is no such thing as a secondary market for a USED Hummer H2 so you can’t sell it.
9) Gas goes up 1-penny per gallon and pushes you completely over the cliff as you couldn’t afford any of this S*%t to begin with…
10) Finally, they come and take that McMansion off your hands (they=the bank w/his buddy the sheriff)
11) From here on out the only thing you (the former investor) will be “camping out” for is government cheese.Since I feel somewhat sorry for your gullibility…feel free to “dive my dumpster”…trash day is Wednesday.
February 24, 2006 at 6:34 PM #23495bubble_contagion
ParticipantNot anymore…
17,126 as of 2/24.
What? Just 100 more in 3 days? Common San Diegans you can do better than that.
February 24, 2006 at 6:45 PM #23496ParticipantThey must have heard you cheering because there have been 50 homes added since TEN MINUTES AGO (17,176 as of 6:45 p.m.)
Thank Zod for “SpringHopeMania” to the rescue! Heck I was starting to think that maybe trees didn’t grow to the sky. Not!
Let the bleeding commence…
February 26, 2006 at 7:02 PM #23517erparadise
ParticipantErparadise
When I go to MLS Wizard I get 19,066. I’ve been following this every few days since January 1st and the number has been increasing by about 200-250/week every week through Jan & Feb.
I’m not sure the difference between where the 17,024 and the 19,066 comes from.
Check out the link @http://isistage-websql.istrategy.com/mlswizardnet/(2bvp5lrpoipvkt454urts545)/MlsSearchRegion.aspx
San Diego County
There are currently 19066 listings in San Diego County
1. North County Coastal (2986)
2. North County Inland (6092)
3. Central San Diego Coastal (1288)
4. Central San Diego (3853)
5. South Bay (2142)
6. East County (2705)March 4, 2006 at 10:50 PM #23559uncle_git
Participant17,450 ish today – it’s really starting to crank up fast this week.
This is going to be very very ugly indeed – and it’s going to hurt a lot of young couples who fell for the BS badly – I’m just glad I was smart enough to stay out.
March 5, 2006 at 12:35 AM #23560an
ParticipantSupply is going up about 300 this week. I’m still waiting for the day supply goes pass 19000 and the y-o-y to turn negative. Those are the two big mile stone for me.
March 5, 2006 at 2:11 AM #23561powayseller
ParticipantWe’ve been hearing that the sellers are ready for the spring take-off. The question is, are the buyers ready, too?
March 5, 2006 at 10:39 AM #23565
barnaby33ParticipantWhy is 19k the magic number? I have heard that it was the highpoint of inventory last bust, but why is that significant? As with most things piggington related, shouldn’t we try to arrive at a number of listings which has some underlying significance? Say the number at which 2% or 5% will be in foreclosure? I ask this because I don’t think that the number of listings is particularly important. Its what it implies that is important and thats what we should be trying to gauge, seller “motivation.”
Josh
March 5, 2006 at 11:30 AM #23568Participant19K is a landmark. It’s the highest inventory we had, and occurred during the last bust in July 1995, when layoffs and a recession caused thousands of workers to leave San Diego.
Since rising inventory increases DOM and decreases price, the inventory is a leading indicator of a price decline.
I guess the 19K number is a past glass ceiling, and surpassing it implies we are in another bust.
Once we pass 19K, the media headlines will announce this “Inventory at highest level since 1995 signals housing bust”, decreasing consumer confidence. And that will lead to even lower sales. The media reports caused by the 19K figure should depress seller motivation, the a factor which you noted.
I don’t recall if Pigginton mentioned the 19K number. It has been done by others, on RealtyTimes and the Voice of San Diego, and perhaps they can explain why they consider it a metric worth writing about
March 5, 2006 at 4:25 PM #23575barnaby33ParticipantI wasn’t implying that you had mentioned it, only that we shouldn’t look at the number in isolation. “All things piggington” was really meant to mean, hey lets crunch some numbers. You mentioned what I was thinking. 19k was the highpoint last time, but we had less people less houses etc. Even just doing a straight extraction of listings/vs population would drive that number up.
Josh
March 5, 2006 at 4:36 PM #23576ParticipantCertainly the quadruple in inventory since early 2004 should be of some significance. Or how about more than a double since same time frame 2005? I don’t think the NUMBER of homes for sale is of so much significance, rather it is the arrival of something that wasn’t suppose to arrive….decreasing sales volume along with increasing prices (indicative of a market top) which leads to another downswing in sale prices. This will effectively kill all speculative demand and topple the first of MANY dominos yet to fall here. Bye bye RE sector/RE finance jobs (even if we just go flat) and bye bye “goldilocks” local economy, hello death spiral.
Cock-a-doodle-doo
March 5, 2006 at 6:19 PM #23579rockclimber
ParticipantHey teatsonabull,
You sound happy that a lot of lives are going to be ruined. This will be very painful for a lot of people. The only bright side that I can see (other than selfish gain) is that people will learn a valuable lesson. Hopefully we will not see another bubble like this for a while (wishful thinking).
Bubbles are bad for economies. The irrational volitility they create make it very difficult for a prudent intelligent investor to make sound decisions.
I hope a lot of the people who get “cut” by this falling knife, are young enough to recover and smart enough to apply the lessons learned.
Let’s get back to viewing a home as “shelter” instead of an investment.
Rock
March 5, 2006 at 7:47 PM #23581ParticipantMy perspective is that people who have been extraordinarily greedy deserve to be extraordinarily punished. When someone pulls out home equity and goes to the desert to buy that “investment” home, who are they hoping to capitalize on? The same “young” people you mention in your e-mail. I want the same thing you do…I want those poor innocent young to be able to buy a house for shelter, rather than an investment. I recognize that there will be some lives ruined…it certainly won’t be my fault or yours when that happens. There WILL be some people responsible, however, who will NOT recieve any punishment for their sins…the “economists” of the RE groups, the PERMA-BULLS, and, yes, the lowly RE agents and mortgage brokers who have NO-ONE to answer to, even while providing “investment advice”.
Happy…I am not…nor will I be. This bubble should never have been allowed to develop, nor should have NASDAQ 5300+…by getting involved in a grass roots way, I feel we can alert some folks who would “march over the edge” forever oblivious to what they are doing.
Watch out for those canes over there…I understand they can be a bitch.
Cock-a-doodle-doo
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