“masses” is another word that is not clear. You can’t assume you need 19% to lead to “masses of foreclosures” because you don’t know if “masses” is 10, 1000, or 1,000,000.

I mean – when someone asks you how much prices will fall, you say “50%” not “a whole bunch.”

I wanted to revive this thread for a little historical perspective. It was only less than 1 year ago that powayseller started this thread and was savaged.

According to the MSM we are already at 573k foreclosures in 2007.
http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=3437816

2 millions foreclosures is now being thrown around as something inevitable.
http://realtytimes.com/rtcpages/20070608_nationdoomed.htm

Realty trac says that there were 1.2 million foreclosures in 2006
http://originatortimes.com/content/templates/standard.aspx?articleid=2274&zoneid=5

History can teach us a lot.

Now the questions are how many total foreclosures have there been since the peak? And where are those foreclosures in the resale/liquidation process?

Powayseller once said, with characteristic confidence, that “50% of the ARMs originated in 2005/2006 are going to default.” Not just subprime ARMs, or Alt-A ARMs… but ALL ARMs. I offered to take the other side of such a wager – that in fact, less than 50% would default – but she was uninterested… I don’t think it would surprise anyone here to find that 25% of the “non-conforming” 2/28s & 3/27s originated between 2004 and 2005 ultimately default. But recall that a large percentage of mortgages that default are ultimately brought current. In summary, it’s gonna get very ugly, but Powayseller’s predictions regarding defaults remain, shall we say, “aggressive.”

Powayseller once said, with characteristic confidence, that “50% of the ARMs originated in 2005/2006 are going to default.” Not just subprime ARMs, or Alt-A ARMs… but ALL ARMs. I offered to take the other side of such a wager – that in fact, less than 50% would default – but she was uninterested… I don’t think it would surprise anyone here to find that 25% of the “non-conforming” 2/28s & 3/27s originated between 2004 and 2005 ultimately default. But recall that a large percentage of mortgages that default are ultimately brought current. In summary, it’s gonna get very ugly, but Powayseller’s predictions regarding defaults remain, shall we say, “aggressive.”