For years, people claimed that because San Diego was such a desirable place to live, local real estate was immune to price declines. We know how that turned out. Yet these days that same argument is often applied to San Diego’s more upscale areas.
It seems, at first blush, to hold up. High-end San Diego homes have certainly weathered the housing bust far better than their lower-priced counterparts. This can be seen in last week’s Case-Shiller home price graphs, which show that the high end of the housing market has fallen in price less than half as much as the low end. And the Case-Shiller high tier — which aggregates price movements of the most expensive one-third of San Diego homes — understates some notable resilience in swankier sub-markets such as Point Loma, Mission Hills, La Jolla, and much of the North County Coastal region.
The relative strength in these areas has led to the widespread conclusion that the high-end markets are desirable enough to be more or less invulnerable to the housing bust.
I am skeptical of this interpretation.
I don’t think any
I don’t think any neighborhood is invulnerable. I do think that these neighborhoods are going to post thier biggest losses on the back end of the cycle rather then at the head of the cycle.
SD Realtor
Ditto! They fell, right
Ditto! They fell, right along with all the other areas when the last R.E. bubble burst and it will be no different this time. When the last bubble busted, even areas like Beverly Hills took a big haircut along with every other area.. People who don’t believe it will be as bad in these higher-end areas and choose to purchase before the worst is over will spend $100’s of thousands of their hard earned dollars that will evaporate within a three to four year period of time.
Rich
Gotta take you to task
Rich
Gotta take you to task on this one. I believe you are as guilty as the uberbears presenting an extreme viewpoint. I dont know any folks claiming “invulnerability” to price declines in the upper tier which quite frankly has already seen them for all to witness already.
The point is not invulnerability but rather relative strength in comparison to the lower tiers. Your data shows we have already seen that and what the future will bring is unknown. But trying to put the word invulnerable into the mouths of more optimistic folks was a bit of a stretch.
sdrealtor, I’ve heard many
sdrealtor, I’ve heard many people claim that high end areas will be invulnerable. If you define invulnerable as not returning to the long term trend line. I’ve read it hear on piggington. If you just search for the word invulnerable, you’ll find a quote by Alan Nevin. Lots of people were using that word. Mostly to get fence/bubble sitters to buy. I not only don’t think it was a stretch, using the word invulnerable, I feel it was appropriate.
Josh
sdr, I don’t know who you
sdr, I don’t know who you are talking to but I hear this kind of sentiment expressed all the time when people talk about north county coastal et al.
Rich
I had a long conversation
I had a long conversation with an experienced Coronado realtor last weekend. He claimed that Coronado was immune to price decreases because it is so desirable, rich people live here and high-end homes are still selling. I pointed out the same things that Rich discusses in his article (plus information about the state of banking and the potential for a very stiff recession) but he was not swayed. He claimed that prices have only come down 5% in Coronado. I pointed out that I had seen many houses which are selling at a 15% haircut in the Village. Plus, some houses in the Cays are down even more than that. He seems to have convinced himself that the decreases in the Cays will have zero impact on prices in the Village. I argued that while there is a premium on houses here in Coronado, that premium is not infinite.
*** For anyone not familiar with Coronado, the Cays is a neighborhood located on the strand three miles south of the main part of the island and the Village is the main part of the island (which isn’t really an island).
Excellent story. If I might
Excellent story. If I might add, the tightening of credit standards is nationwide. That means even La Jolla. You will still need to come up w/at least 20% down and actually prove you can make the payments to qualify for the loan. That might affect sales in the desired areas. Also, The Cromers and Copes of the world are losing their mutliple 6 digits incomes and no longer buying the “desireable” coastal properties. There were still investors purchasing along the coast intending to use them as rentals or second homes. Some of those will be lost to banks from job/income losses.
I have repeatedly heard from coastal homeowners and realtors that the coast will not be affected, and if so, very minimally. And their proof is, for example, that La Jolla is still selling at high prices. Rich people have the money and they won’t be affected, European people are buying, etc. etc.
Itokuda- agree.
Thanks for the story, Rich.
Invulnerable is just a
Invulnerable is just a euphemism, so we’re talking semantics here. I see the strongest argument here being something to do with relative pricing. One area negatively affected by prices is surely going to impact on it’s neighboring area. I personally consider many of these high priced areas STILL to be way over-valued, and that’s not based on comps or whatever the agent speak is, but just a gut reaction. No way am I going to pay such a huge sum of money for what in some instances amounts to little more than a summer cottage, in a area that is over-hyped to say the least. If prices don’t come down in these areas, I will simply move and I suspect many others will too. I would be prepared to pay a high price, but it really has to reflect value for money, and many soCal properties simply don’t. This is just a view of an ordinary would-be buyer, with ‘normal’ expectations. So if you want another reason to add to the list, it is that people like me, armed with the truth are just not going to pay these prices. Show of hands please?
When the downturn started
When the downturn started you heard lots of people in Carmel Valley say, “20 years, and CV’s never dropped.” The only difference between what they were saying then and what they’re saying now is, now they’re more smug about it. Kind of a “see, everywhere else is getting hammered but CV is still just fine” attitude. I guess we’ll see.
Carmel Valley HAS gone down.
Carmel Valley HAS gone down. I know builders who in the last 18 months rebated 25% of the purchase price post closing subject to a confidentiality agreement. There are lots of homes here in pre-foreclosure and I personally know quite a few people here whose jobs in the financial services/real estate industry will cause them to soon lose their home. This area LAGS the decline, but IS NOT immune to it. Maybe it’s because people here “seem” to have the resources to hang on longer before they decide to throw in the towel and walk away.
sandiegobanker: Ah ha! I
sandiegobanker: Ah ha! I suspected that these types of shenanigans were going on in CV, Rancho Santa Fe, etc in an attempt to keep the comps up in higher end areas. Very interesting! These types of payments back to the buyer should be recorded as part of the documented sales information that is available to the public. This kind of crap distorts the true picture of selling prices.
Sounds like some posters
Sounds like some posters here are afraid their prospective clients will read Richs article(s) and decide not to buy after all….I can smell the fear.
remember that immune =
remember that immune = invulnerable, in this context. Right?
I hear immune and invulnerable a lot.
I don’t believe sdrealtor,
I don’t believe sdrealtor, jim, rustico or any of the real estate professionals here ever post that any of the more desireable areas are immune from the downturn.
JWM you are more then welcome to find a post by me where I said it. Please do post it.
*********
CV has indeed gone down as well as other higher end places. Not as much as other areas but then again they have gone down.
sandiegobanker… um… I don’t want to call you on anything but you did previously post about REO’s selling at very substantial discounts and I am still waiting for some of those closed deals so I can look them up.
Also I have never ever heard of a developer giving a 25% rebate of the purchase price out of escrow. As you would know subject to confidentiality or not, this constitutes fraud in a big way. Not only is it fraud against the buyers lender, it is also more then likely fraud against the underwriter of the project. Now I am not saying it doesn’t happen, I am just very curious that a developer would take on such a risk.
I do 100% agree that in the long run places like CV should come down due to distress, (as long as massive bailout or rewrites don’t happen).
SD Realtor
SD Realtor – My comment
SD Realtor – My comment regarding realtors was definitely NOT including you. You have been one of the most honest realtor I’ve encountered in my life and an exception to my comments.
SD Realtor, I never said
SD Realtor, I never said they said it would be immune. What I’m questioning is the degree of sensitivity to Rich’s latest article and the parsing of the word Immune and Invulnerable. Reactions from sdr qnd Rustico seem overblown IMNSHO.
Rustico, find any post from me predicting depression in 2008. It doesn’t exist. What I have been arguing is thst the macro econ picture is pointing towards some disturbing times ahead. I dare you to argue where I have been substantially wrong about that w/ the exception of Bernanke slashing rates so badly.
JWM
You are right about
JWM
You are right about these being disturbing times .
If the “high end” getting shellacked were the worst of the effects of our, to a large degree, money for nothing system(or money for something worse than nothing), I would be ecstatic. I don’t talk much about the “high end” anyway because it’s not my market.
As for my clients and prospective clients reading Piggington’s, I would love for them to read Rich’s posts.
JWM and JP gotcha. I also do
JWM and JP gotcha. I also do recommend Piggington to my clients as well.
sandiegobanker if you can please provide some of home addresses for the foreclosures you spoke about a few weeks back when they close escrow so I can check on the prices. Also I still am kind of… well not really sure about the statements about developers mailing 25% rebate checks to buyers of homes out of escrow. Sorry for being skeptical.
SD Realtor
SD Realtor, I can’t disclose
SD Realtor, I can’t disclose that info even though the transaction has now closed. I have a great job I’m not about to jeopardize by doing so. Despite the sales now being public, my disclosure of the specific properties involved, and thus the participants, would represent a breach of my fiduciary obligations and more. Bloggers have been sued or threatened with litigation for similar disclosures.
Convincing others that the statements I made are true is not worth those risks.
Respectfully speaking, I accept your skepticism.
Respectfully speaking, I
Respectfully speaking, I accept your skepticism.
Translation: You are right, I am probably full of $hit.
If one is really afraid of being sued, simply start a new thread with the following information.
The following property sold on xx/xx/2008, with the MLS number or APN.
No commentary, no additional details, just plain vanilla, publicly available facts.
These are printed in the San Diego Daily Transcript every day. In fact the SDDT even discloses the names of the buyer and seller in print and on-line.
For example, published on March 27, 2008 …
“08-0149751 — The house at 2704 Grandview St , San Diego, CA 92110, was sold on 03/21/08 at a tax value of $495,000.
Sold by Michael Pisanich, Jr. and Britt Normann, trustees, to James D. Kunzman, MD. 430-921-04.”
Hey jackass, I mean former
Hey jackass, I mean former San Diegan. If you think I’m full of $hit, then you are one uneducated idiot because you clearly don’t understand the covenants of confidentiality bankers are under. Please at least enroll in a para-legal class before spouting legal advice. Watching too many episodes of LA Law is not a substitute for law school and you are embarrassing yourself
sdbanker I understand. While
sdbanker I understand. While I am not on the inside of anything, I do spend ALOT of time reviewing what is publicly available and have not ever seen any of the sorts of transactions you speak of. While it doesn’t mean it doesn’t or hasn’t happened I tend to think it is unlikely or possibly not possible for most people. I know that large portfolio purchases can and do realize severe discounts on bundles of foreclosures but we are talking 50 or more homes at once, not single buys.
Anyways, perhaps I am wrong but surely you can understand where I am coming from. People here tend to get all lathered up over certain types of posts. I can post about the actual real events of pricing in Carmel Valley and not many are happy about it. Yet if someone posts about a backdoor deal or something of that nature and the whole board goes crazy, you know what I am saying?
SD Realtor
I understand SD Realtor.
I understand SD Realtor. Given the number of housing bubble blogs, someone will eventually find and disclose the sales I alluded to. I’m just not willing to be a party to, or assist in, that disclosure. There is so much more to all of this, but given some people’s reactions to anything less that full disclosure, it’s not worth saying anything at all.
It’s ironic how some people will still insist on absolute proof of something, despite a mountain of circumstantial evidence to support it already.
Right, I guess I am one of
Right, I guess I am one of those people who does demand absolute proof. As an engineer I tend to be that way. Also as you are being quite careful regarding disclosure so as not to open up yourself to legal liability, it is paradoxical to me that a builder would take such risk with both the underwriter of the project and the buyers lender by performing the manner of which you alluded to. Similarly they would be also defrauding any appraisers who perform appraisals by not disclosing these post transaction rebates. There is also the issue of the preferred lender they work with. Can you see my point of view? There are a hell of alot of irons in the fire.
As for the foreclosure sales at 50% the list price again, those transactions are of public record of which I look over alot. I generally find exceptionally low sales and look at the tax records and compare them to the list price. I simply haven’t come across any 50% reductions from list price. I guess they have to be there per your post but yes it is all circumstantial to me unless I find hard evidence to support it.
SD Realtor
“It’s ironic how some people
“It’s ironic how some people will still insist on absolute proof of something, despite a mountain of circumstantial evidence to support it already.”
Hi Sdbanker. Would you be so kind as to point out the mountain of circumstantial evidence that supports 50% off, arms length, REO sales. I think you were talking about decent detached homes? I agree some stuff(mostly condos) is selling at 50% off peak but that is different? I see the occasional dogs which will likely require a nearly 100% down financing, ripe for a 25% low ball and nothing better than that. So how are people slipping in 50% off deals?No names or addresses needed just a reasonable explanation to go with the mountain or circumstantial evidence.I think we can then find proof. If you don’t come up with something better than you have, your point remains questionable,as does motive for saying it as far as I am concerned.Sorry if tone comes across wrong. It is hard to be skeptical and cheery at the same time.
Thanks
OMG, LOL – YOU ARE ON A
OMG, LOL – YOU ARE ON A BLOG WITH, AND LINKS TO, TONS OF CIRCUMSTANTIAL EVIDENCE – Good grief!
No point in trying to
No point in trying to discuss this.
Good luck
sandiegobanker1:
I
sandiegobanker1:
I absolutely believe you. The homebuilding and real estate business’ are both overrun with a lot of crooks and IMHO, there is no reason NOT to believe you since you have access to confidential information where some very good lawyers have probably hidden these transactions under layers of obfuscation.
sdbanker1, interesting info.
sdbanker1, interesting info. And in response to the question of why any builder would risk legal action to offer these “rebates,” I think we should look at the motivation. Builders began out-of-control development during the bubble years with the promise of almost guaranteed seven figure profit. But when all of that came crashing to reality, every hope of that ridiculous payday evaporated. So is it truly difficult to imiagine why anyone would engage in any “questionable” practices to increase the amount of said payday? I don’t think so. We’ve seen crooks go to jail before to save a few hundred thousand dollars (or millions, depending on the case….think Enron).
And great point Ex-SD. We’ve seen countless crooks and thieves come out of the woodwork over the past year or so. Shady lending practices, “liar loans,” false information, etc. I don’t think its hard to believe the rebate theory at all. As a matter of fact, I think it is something that is probably happening. We (the potential buying public) have been led astray by the realtors and speculators (not ALL realtors, of course). So I don’t think we are in any position to trust the profession for the time being.
Now with that being said, I absolutely understand that the actions of some realtors does not and should not reflect the actions of the entire profession. But just like lawyers and accountants get a bad reputation after scnadals, so too do the realtors. I feel bad for the honest people out there that are clouded by the greed, scandal, and overall mess that has taken place.
Hi Ace23NY.
Here’s why many
Hi Ace23NY.
Here’s why many of these new home builder’s are offering “extreme” discounts.
New home builders generally have construction financing in place when they are selling units in their developments, and this type of financing has a very short fuse. Builders generally can’t get permanent financing on what’s referred to as “builder inventory”. That’s generally something only an individual home buyer can get. When markets go soft, the lenders on these kinds of loans (i.e., construction) either stop extending them or in lieu of foreclosing, start requiring accelerated pay downs of principal on the loan. Builders who offer the kind of extreme discounts I previously mentioned are generally those who are already on the verge of default/foreclosure anyway, so offering an under the table discount is nothing compared to losing an entire project to foreclosure. Moreover, this allows them to create the perception of activity, move some units, and lessen their liability on the construction loan.
People who think they understand what is happening in the mortgage banking industry have no idea what is actually happening, or will happen, including many in the industry whose positions are too specialized for them to see the big picture.
For example, we’ve all seen the large profits banks and mortgage companies have posted in recent years prior to the last two years, right? Well guess what, most of it was never actually received and here’s why. It’s because of something called accrual accounting. Accrual accounting allows banks and mortgage companies to immediately recognize as income, the interest on neg-am and option ARMS that was being deferred till a future date. With the market now in freefall, not only will much of that interest income never be received by lenders, neither will a good chunk of the principal (if the property ultimately becomes a short sale or foreclosure). Furthermore, if it becomes REO, the lender will have the additional cost burden of having to set aside loan loss reserves as well.
That’s why you are going to see restated financial statements every quarter for possibly another two years from banks and mortgage companies with loan portfolios disproportionately weighted with neg-am and option ARM loans. This will have an enormous impact on bank solvency, market psychology, and consumer sentiment.
Sandiegobanker1,
Do you
Sandiegobanker1,
Do you think the deferred amortization and credit loss write downs are why the FDIC is expecting 150 bank failures in the next year or two? They are hiring a lot peoople to deal with according to a recent announcement.
Personally, I think that announcement was huge but largely ignored by the MSM. It is about as close to admission of a major credit contraction that J6P can actually relate as we can get. Yet no one paid attention to including here when it was a brief thread.
I just don’t some people get it.
Hi FormerSanDiegan. There is
Hi FormerSanDiegan. There is nothing illegal that I’m aware of in requiring that someone sign a confidentiality agreement associated with the sale of real estate or giving them a huge discount, but here’s the part that is very illegal that I may not have made clear, which is the impetus for structuring these sales this way.
The following is an example:
A builder who has 1 million dollar homes for sale (based on the going market price from two years ago) has a dozen or so left to sell in this dead market and because of the construction loan(s) looming over them, they need to move inventory quick. The builder offers a buyer a $1 million dollar home with $250,000 back post closing subject to the previously mentioned confidentiality agreement because the builder (1) doesn’t want to invite lawsuits from earlier buyers in the project who might learn of it, and (2) because they still need to sell other homes in the project at the inflated price, at what they hope will be without discount. The buyer with purchase contract in hand for $1 million goes to a bank and gets a 90% LTV loan for $900,000. The deal closes and the buyer gets $250,000 back from the builder. He/She only put up $100,000 for the down payment with the bank and now gets $250,000 back, not bad. The lender is now on the hook for $900,000 on a home that is actually worth $150,000 less than the outstanding loan. This is absolute fraud and has happened! I would never be a party to this kind of lending, but there are some bankers/mortgage lenders who have been.
If/When the builder goes bankrupt, the buyer can risk violating the confidentiality agreement and also risk the consequences of full disclosure about the rebate when they attempt to have their real estate taxes lowered based on the “real” transfer value on that home. However, I’m not sure the tax assessor will buy it, and may even report it.
To JMW, my answer to your question is a resounding YES
Please name the builder in
Please name the builder in CV who has rebated 25% of the sales price….That would interest me, but I doubt that that happened and think it is very shaddy…It certainly isnt Pardee at Derby Hill…
Submitted by sandiegobanker1
Submitted by sandiegobanker1 on March 10, 2008 – 5:26am.
Actually, the buying opportunities are here. I’ve seen buyers offer Countrywide and others with huge REO portfolios 25% of the REO asking price and getting countered at 40% to 50%. The REO asking price is well below the prior market price. The counters were $200,000 even on 3-BR, 2-BA SFRs with yards. These are not townhomes. You have to bid 20% to 30% of the asking price and no more. The opportunities are with those with large REO portfolios. Ignore homeseller listings. If they have to sell, they will eventually they will become REO because the current REO comps will not support the prices they need just to cover their mortgage.
This is the claim I was referring to/asking about. I don’t know anything about the other controversial claim. This one seems very easy to discuss in light of circumstantial evidence and how easy it would be to verify. Forget the rebate this is a better deal.
I have already asked about
I have already asked about this claim but sandiegobanker already said he could not comment on these transactions due to confidentiality.
SD Realtor
I had asked about it before
I had asked about it before too and asked again up a few posts . I thought a re-posting might help people understand where we are coming from with this skepticism is coming from(in case they didn’t).
Yes, I confess I do not
Yes, I confess I do not understand legal matters that well. I have perhaps been overeducated in laws of physics and electricity and magnetism so much so that it skews my ability to make logical sense out of our legal system. As an uneducated (well, maybe not completely) idiot jackass I am often confused by the law. I need someone to explain to me the following: (please use drawings or pictographs in crayon)
1. Is it legal to rebate 25% of a purchase back to a buyer outside of escrow ?
If this is legal …
Is the information available to appraisers from public records or title companies in making comps ?
If this is not legal …
If I sign a confidentiality agreement that requires me to keep the transaction information secret and that information indicates that fraud or another crime has been committed am I obligated to report or not report those facts to law enforcement ?
The bears and Piggs need to
The bears and Piggs need to remember that there is no life east of 5 and certainly not south of 52 and definitely not south of 8.
So when the price of sub 2000SF home in decent part of East Lake or Chula Vista is 1/3 the price of a home in Carmel Valley, there may be a few who will forget the Carmel Valley dream and head for the dumps. So I can forsee a cheap engineer (redundant error from MS word) here spending the housing difference to pay for his French maid, his Chinese tutor, his British butler, his Guatamalan gardner…
But he will always be that second class …
Which one of you poor blokes will be first to sing the Dream is over?
Rich,
As you know I’ve been
Rich,
As you know I’ve been riding proudly a top the bear since Feb 2004 around here. I guess that I must talk to more grounded folks as I dont hear invlunerable to price drops from any of my piers. I do tend to hang with the oldtimers who’ve been through a few cycles and know better though.
My real point is that I prefer your writing (and everyone else’s) when you stick to the facts which you do so brilliantly. The post was a bit more sensationalistic than your typically ramblings and thats what struck me. My problem, not yours.
Keep up the great work
sdr
“As you know I’ve been
“As you know I’ve been riding proudly a top the bear since Feb 2004 around here.”
Sorry, but that sounds more like a stretch than anything Rich wrote. I don’t who know who you think you are fooling sdr, but it isn’t me or anyone else here.
Thanks sdr. I know what I
Thanks sdr. I know what I meant to get across, and what I meant was definitely not sensationalist or exaggerated, but I could see how you might interpret the words to be more dramatic than I intended. I try to be concise and not leave room for misinterpretation but I don’t always pull it off given the limited time I have to spend polishing this stuff.
To set the record straight, I have heard many, many people say that Del Mar, Carmel Valley, and similar places etc. simply will not experience any significant price declines because they are so desirable (and further that the lack of serious decline so far is proof of this). I disagree with the logic and the purported proof and that’s what the article was meant to address — no sensationalism intended. 🙂
Rich
JWM..
You just crack me up.
JWM..
You just crack me up. For you to remain credible 50% of the U.S. population is going to have to be eating drywall to survive the aftermath of the housing bubble…starting about a year ago.
good one Russ
good one Russ
I’ve also heard a lot of
I’ve also heard a lot of comments from people I work/associate/interact with about how the high end homes are “invulnerable”. I’m not in the RE business so I think the comments I hear could be taken as “common knowledge”.
Years ago, the common knowledge was that prices would go up forever. Then I’d hear people say that other states would go down, but California was immune. Then I heard that San Diego/Riverside could go down but LA/OC was different. Then I heard that parts of LA and OC could go down but the richer areas won’t. Lately, I’ve been hearing that the high end homes are invulnerable.
I’ve basically interacted with the same set of people over the past few years so its interesting to see how “common knowledge” changes. I don’t see Rich’s article as sensationalist at all. I think it does a good job of addressing the “common knowledge” of today.
Now that house prices are
Now that house prices are going down everywhere in CA, the latest “common knowledge” I’ve heard is that the very high end homes (e.g. $5 million plus) are immune. Here’s some of the reasons I’ve been hearing:
* These houses are so desirable that there’s always going to be a market for them.
* It’s a completely different market.
* Rich people don’t have to finance buying homes like these so they aren’t affected by the subprime mess.
* Rich people can hold on to these properties forever so they never have to sell it for a loss.
* There are rich people all over the world who are willing to buy these high end homes.
* The weak dollar is attracting rich foreigners who think these high end homes are cheap.
I’m posting these for posterity. We’ll see what happens over the next few years.
Seems like you guys would
Seems like you guys would quit visiting this forum the moment Rich’s graphs take a U turn 🙂
OK….for those of us not
OK….for those of us not currently living in the area; I am looking for a consensus on future declines in this market. Between 1 and 3 Mil; are knowledgeable folks expecting 15% from today’s prices? To date very little movement and denial is huge I would imagine. But compared to the volume of 2+ Mil homes on the market, how many real buyers are out there now and have an actual down payment? Are builders (LEN and other nationals) with 10 empty unsold homes ready to unload soon? Its difficult to gauge from afar.