Hello all — look for a data rodeo this weekend. In the meantime, a brief writeup on March resale prices is available at voiceofsandiego.org. The bears won’t get much satisfaction this month, but after last month’s brutality, do you really need it?
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April 3, 2008 @ 10:41 PM
It looks like a bottom to
It looks like a bottom to me;)
April 4, 2008 @ 5:24 AM
LOL – I had a paragraph or
LOL – I had a paragraph or two written about how it’s not the bottom, until I saw your emoticon wink at the end there.
Anyone want to guess what % of the realtors say this is the bottom again?
April 4, 2008 @ 5:26 AM
see previous comment.
see previous comment.
April 4, 2008 @ 9:36 AM
Looking at the graph it is
Looking at the graph it is amazing how much this bottom resembles the one made during the same period of 2006.
I only talk with a handful of Realtors on a frequent basis. The consensus is we have 10-20% to go. None think it is the end of the world. “Birds of a feather” syndrome applies.
Wild guess. 50% have down played the bubble the whole way. 75% of those are gone or will be gone from the business on a permanent basis. They see the light about a day before they throw in the towel. Apparently the next day they list their properties as “short sales”.
April 4, 2008 @ 10:06 AM
I don’t know about bears not
I don’t know about bears not getting satisfaction from that. I’m a bear, and those numbers give me great satisfaction. Flat prices during spring seems pretty huge to me. If I remember correctly from one of your many charts, during the last downturn, only the brutal 1993 didn’t have a spring bounce. If April and May follow March, I think that would be very, very bearish. Even a mild bounce in those months shouldn’t discourage a bear.
April 4, 2008 @ 10:40 AM
Looking back may give a good
Looking back may give a good indication of things to come.
Jan-Mar 2006 were flat, Summer showed signs of improvement, until the next 6-8 months of declines. Feb/Mar of 2007 were flat too, summer brought another increase followed by an even more massive drop.
It seems the decline of ’06 when the economy was much healthier than it is today, led to the even worse ’07 drop.
With the economy worse now, despite lower rates, the ’08 drop should look as bad or worse than ’07, despite a likely summer uptick that will probably be heralded as the bottom.
Of course this trend won’t continue indefinately, but if you’re looking for a bottom, increasing inventories and unemployment aren’t exactly paving the way. The recession will only make things worse and MSM has not yet accepted the fact that we are in one.
April 4, 2008 @ 10:56 AM
The recession will only
The recession will only make things worse and MSM has not yet accepted the fact that we are in one.
Are you kidding ? The MSM has been reporting that we are likely in recession for a couple months. The last person to admit it will be Bernanke and he even said we might be in one.
April 4, 2008 @ 12:58 PM
No I’m not kidding. Do a
No I’m not kidding. Do a web search for recession and look at the news results. You said it yourself: “we are likely in recession”, it’s feared, rumored, signaled, pointed at and a concern, but it’s not accepted. And you’re right, certainly not by helicopter boy, and certainly not by the Bulls.
What Recession? Investors Go Shopping for Bargains
Jobs slashed, pointing to recession
UPDATE 1-US recession possible, label unimportant –Treasury
Airline Stocks: New evidence of recession pressures U.S. carriers’ shares
Dollar Falls Versus Euro as Job Losses Raise Recession Concern
Fears of U.S. recession growing: Irish central bank
We’re still between aversion and recognition. When it is accepted it won’t be until well after the fact, probably with a much larger than expected negative quarterly growth and huge stock sell off will follow.
April 4, 2008 @ 10:26 PM
Actually Rich, I would have
Actually Rich, I would have been more surprised if we didn’t see any bump this month. I expect March, April and maybe even May to be comparable to last year, maybe even bump a little bit up or down. Not a problem for those with a long term outlook. The secular trend should resume as the summer kicks in.
SD Realtor