I will buy when prices revert back to pre-bubble level.

That would be early 2003 prices at a minimum. In nominal terms that puts the price at about $300K in the average neighborhoods I’m watching (Clairemont, Linda Vista, Serra Mesa etc.).

And/Or

The other method – I will buy whenever I can purchase for 3 times my annual household income.

25% decline from today for new, probably 30-35% for resale since the new construction has already been discounted more in my area, this would represent a 50% drop from peak overall for both. Specifically I am looking at a 2100 sq ft new detached alley home that is list priced at 341k today with granite,ss appliances, etc. Comparable style resales are about 370-400k with an occasional thrashed repo lower. If that gets between 250 and 300 then I will be inclined to pull the trigger. My reasons are not about timing the market but about fundamentals. Rent today would be 1700-2000 for the same property, the loan would be only 2x my income. With 50k down a 250k 30 yr fixed mortgage it is about $1550 P&I. Taxes, insurance and hoa are roughly cancelled out by the income tax deduction, so then it makes sense to me. Of course it would be nice to be closer to the 250 than the 300 but that is where it gets tempting.

75% 2 years from now (70% with inflation). I think there is some permanent change to the market due to new financing vehicles avaiable and the “super star city” phenomenon. Couple that together with the behavioral effects of the market dropping further, and I think that’s as low as it will go without a country-wide depression.

That would put an 1,800 3-4BR house at around 400K, which I think is the sweet spot given the demographics of the area and this country’s crazy infatuation with the “American Dream.”

Stan

If I find the right property, 20% below today’s prices would temp me (in Coronado). It would have to be a house that would work for us for at least 10 years.

I’ve got my eye on some new homes currently selling in the Mid 800s. They have a couple in the last phase that they have been trying to unload for several months at 75K off with no luck ( one since Jan). I’de be willing to pull the trigger in the mid 500s but any more than that I’ll be looking elsewhere or staying put in my started shack that I only owe 70K on. Homes this size in this area were selling in the high 400s in early 2003, so I don’t think mid 500s is out of the question. I’m patient and can certainly afford to wait.

eccen in esc

20% – 30% I am looking in North County east of the 15 and I want a minimum of 2 acres. My budget is $450 max.