Home › Forums › Financial Markets/Economics › Recession 2020
- This topic has 371 replies, 26 voices, and was last updated 4 years, 5 months ago by
FlyerInHi.
-
AuthorPosts
-
July 25, 2018 at 11:26 AM #22589July 25, 2018 at 11:40 AM #810423
carlsbadworker
ParticipantWhat signs?
July 25, 2018 at 11:54 AM #810424FlyerInHi
Guest$1 trillion annual deficit. Higher rates.
Inflation coming due to trade wars. 25% tariff on imported auto.Where is Rand Paul and his daddy?
July 25, 2018 at 2:51 PM #810425The-Shoveler
ParticipantTrade negotiations are not done yet.
IMO The biggest danger is the fed raising rates.
They are expecting a 4% increase in GDP this Friday.
I don’t think we have had a 4 handle on the GDP since 1999 (I maybe wrong on that).People care a lot more about their economy than anything else (most everything else is more on the fringe than some people want to think).
July 25, 2018 at 3:20 PM #810426spdrun
ParticipantDo you mean 2014?
I’m rather happy the Fed is raising rates — it’s already serving as Aspirin for feverish housing markets around here. Hope ARMs start ticking up soon …
10y bond’s back around 3% — this is entertaining to watch.
July 25, 2018 at 4:59 PM #810427GuestMy gut feelings is a combination of factors and a black swan event will cause the economy to go to shit real quick.
The confluence of events are definitely not what they teach in business school as good for the economy.July 25, 2018 at 5:43 PM #810428GuestI also have anecdotal evidence that the gig economy, such as Uber, is goosing up the economy by giving people extra income. But once people cut back on going out, Uber drivers will find in harder to make their car payments, cars they splurged on thanks to Uber. We will see….
July 25, 2018 at 8:00 PM #810430gzz
ParticipantThe rate increases give the fed plenty of ammo if the economy starts to cool. What would the local market look like if 30-year rates were 3.25% again?
I don’t see a trade war. China and EU will swallow their pride and give Trump a win.
China needs their trade with the USA more than vice versa. We export them a small amount of key goods plus ag stables. China however exports products that are also made elsewhere in Asia, and if it loses market share it may never come back, especially if it loses share to lower cost places like Vietnam.
China’s government really does not want mass factory layoffs + large increase in the price of US soy, pork, beef, and grain.
July 26, 2018 at 12:10 PM #810442GuestWe will see…. but don’t think China will blink. Out of adversity, they will accelerate Made in China 2025 and move up the value added chain. China is happy to cede market share to countries such as Vietnam while that sell infrastructure projects in Belt and Road. In fact Chinese companies are moving clothing production to Ethiopia.
Our companies will lose access to the growing Chinese market while Europeans will profit. We forget that the Chinese market is not just as important as our own, more so for luxury brands.
Food commodities are world commodities like oil. The price is set in world makets. It makes no difference that the supply is USA or not.
The Europeans may blink but only because they need NATO. I think they may let the steel tariffs stand and do nothing more. But they may expand business with Iran and China. Not good for the western alliance. Canada is doubling transmountain pipeline capacity to Vancouver for energy export to China.
July 26, 2018 at 12:16 PM #810443GuestOne thing weird about the US economy that Fox News no longer mentions is our labor participation rate. It’s lower than other developed nations, even though we have a younger population. I think we have a huge drug problem and a lot of mentally whack people who can’t hold jobs. 1 out of 5 on psychological drugs not counting recreational pot and illegal prescriptions.
It’s confounding economists.
July 26, 2018 at 12:19 PM #810444moneymaker
ParticipantMy bet would be recession in 2019! Or it may end up being stagflation.
July 26, 2018 at 1:18 PM #810445
CoronitaParticipantWhat tech recession?
Everything about a piss poor numbers being reported by companies looks to be more internal execution problems….
Why AMD’s soaring stock is a more important tell on the tech industry’s health than Facebook’s plunge
July 26, 2018 at 3:26 PM #810450ParticipantSeriously after the news recently about bad tweets and FB posts, I am surprised everyone is not deleting their accounts.
The only reason I would use it is for Biz. and I would keep it strictly biz.
July 26, 2018 at 4:10 PM #810451CoronitaParticipant[quote=The-Shoveler]Seriously after the news recently about bad tweets and FB posts, I am surprised everyone is not deleting their accounts.
The only reason I would use it is for Biz. and I would keep it strictly biz.[/quote]
that’s the only reason why I use Facebook. coupons, raffles, etc
July 26, 2018 at 6:01 PM #810456Myriad
Participant[quote=FlyerInHi]We will see…. but don’t think China will blink. Out of adversity, they will accelerate Made in China 2025 and move up the value added chain. China is happy to cede market share to countries such as Vietnam while that sell infrastructure projects in Belt and Road. In fact Chinese companies are moving clothing production to Ethiopia.
Our companies will lose access to the growing Chinese market while Europeans will profit. We forget that the Chinese market is not just as important as our own, more so for luxury brands. [/quote]
The real issue here is the execution of the trade fight against China and the lack of a strategic plan. Should have united the world against China first.
China is the pivotal challenge for the US at every level for the next 50 years (diplomatically, economically, militarily, geo-politically, etc)
The trade battle and the China 2025 is only a small part of what will be a pseudo Cold War. China is re-aligning Pakistan as an ally while we are re-aligning with India.We have these stupid rules now like can’t say Taipei is in Taiwan when you book a flight. Next thing you know, they’ll be trying to cut off Taiwan and Japan economically to force them into China’s sphere of influence.
-
AuthorPosts
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.