SD Reader: San Diego Economy Still Staggering

This topic has 150 replies, 13 voices, and was last updated 13 years, 3 months ago by sdrealtor.

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January 6, 2011 at 1:45 PM #18358

SD Transplant
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http://www.sandiegoreader.com/news/2011/jan/05/citylight-san-diego-economy-staggering/?source=patrick.net#main_header

a few paragraphs:

“Residential real estate is not in for a recovery. There is an industry overhang, mortgage rates are rising (despite the Fed’s attempts to pound them down), and foreclosures pile up. Cox thinks home values will drop another 5 to 10 percent. “It could be two decades before we get back to inflation-adjusted levels of the peak,” he says, and it will “be three or four years before we see major increases in building permits.”

Cunningham is more pessimistic. Inflation-adjusted San Diego County home prices “may never reach previous highs without an unprecedented and unexpected rise of area household incomes,” he says. In the bubble years, San Diego’s median home price was 7 times median household income. Now it’s back to 4.2, but even though half of households can afford a home now, up from a pitiful 7 percent in the bubble years, San Diego homes are still less affordable than in most major markets.

January 6, 2011 at 2:05 PM #648477

SD Transplant
Participant

Plust this is a cool chart on housing affordabilty

http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/1/6/595019-129429337257722-Leith-van-Onselen_origin.jpg

The entire article has great data/charts

http://seekingalpha.com/article/245203-the-truth-about-the-u-s-housing-market?source=hp_wc&wc_num=3

January 6, 2011 at 2:05 PM #648548

SD Transplant
Participant

Plust this is a cool chart on housing affordabilty

http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/1/6/595019-129429337257722-Leith-van-Onselen_origin.jpg

The entire article has great data/charts

http://seekingalpha.com/article/245203-the-truth-about-the-u-s-housing-market?source=hp_wc&wc_num=3

January 6, 2011 at 2:05 PM #649134

SD Transplant
Participant

Plust this is a cool chart on housing affordabilty

http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/1/6/595019-129429337257722-Leith-van-Onselen_origin.jpg

The entire article has great data/charts

http://seekingalpha.com/article/245203-the-truth-about-the-u-s-housing-market?source=hp_wc&wc_num=3

January 6, 2011 at 2:05 PM #649271

SD Transplant
Participant

Plust this is a cool chart on housing affordabilty

http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/1/6/595019-129429337257722-Leith-van-Onselen_origin.jpg

The entire article has great data/charts

http://seekingalpha.com/article/245203-the-truth-about-the-u-s-housing-market?source=hp_wc&wc_num=3

January 6, 2011 at 2:05 PM #649596

SD Transplant
Participant

Plust this is a cool chart on housing affordabilty

http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/1/6/595019-129429337257722-Leith-van-Onselen_origin.jpg

The entire article has great data/charts

http://seekingalpha.com/article/245203-the-truth-about-the-u-s-housing-market?source=hp_wc&wc_num=3

January 6, 2011 at 3:13 PM #648502

permabear
Participant

Great charts. Glad to see Vancouver and Sydney are definitely NOT in bubbles.

LOL.

January 6, 2011 at 3:13 PM #648573

permabear
Participant

Great charts. Glad to see Vancouver and Sydney are definitely NOT in bubbles.

LOL.

January 6, 2011 at 3:13 PM #649159

permabear
Participant

Great charts. Glad to see Vancouver and Sydney are definitely NOT in bubbles.

LOL.

January 6, 2011 at 3:13 PM #649296

permabear
Participant

Great charts. Glad to see Vancouver and Sydney are definitely NOT in bubbles.

LOL.

January 6, 2011 at 3:13 PM #649621

permabear
Participant

Great charts. Glad to see Vancouver and Sydney are definitely NOT in bubbles.

LOL.

January 6, 2011 at 4:11 PM #648517

an
Participant

[quote=SD Transplant]It could be two decades before we get back to inflation-adjusted levels of the peak[/quote]
Based on 3% inflation, November 2005’s median home price of $517k, we should be expecting to see a nominal median price of ~$805k if this prediction is true. If inflation is 2%, median price of 768k and if inflation is at 4%, we should expect median price of $1.13M. Sounds a little too optimistic to me.

January 6, 2011 at 4:11 PM #648588

an
Participant

[quote=SD Transplant]It could be two decades before we get back to inflation-adjusted levels of the peak[/quote]
Based on 3% inflation, November 2005’s median home price of $517k, we should be expecting to see a nominal median price of ~$805k if this prediction is true. If inflation is 2%, median price of 768k and if inflation is at 4%, we should expect median price of $1.13M. Sounds a little too optimistic to me.

January 6, 2011 at 4:11 PM #649174

an
Participant

[quote=SD Transplant]It could be two decades before we get back to inflation-adjusted levels of the peak[/quote]
Based on 3% inflation, November 2005’s median home price of $517k, we should be expecting to see a nominal median price of ~$805k if this prediction is true. If inflation is 2%, median price of 768k and if inflation is at 4%, we should expect median price of $1.13M. Sounds a little too optimistic to me.

January 6, 2011 at 4:11 PM #649311

an
Participant

[quote=SD Transplant]It could be two decades before we get back to inflation-adjusted levels of the peak[/quote]
Based on 3% inflation, November 2005’s median home price of $517k, we should be expecting to see a nominal median price of ~$805k if this prediction is true. If inflation is 2%, median price of 768k and if inflation is at 4%, we should expect median price of $1.13M. Sounds a little too optimistic to me.
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