San Diego Housing Market News and Analysis
August 2011 Resale Housing Data Rodeo - With Words!
Submitted by Rich Toscano on September 20, 2011 - 9:42am
Well, I didn't say the words would be interesting or anything. But there are some.
The median price per square foot took a bit of a hit last month, falling for both detached homes and condos and down about 3% overall.
This takes the Case-Shiller index proxy down to the low it saw in March:
If this estimation is correct, then we are very close to hitting a new inflation-adjusted low for post-bubble home prices in San Diego.
Same charts with calendar lines to indicate seasonality. We are definitely into what is usually the weak half of the year.
Notwithstanding the price weakness, supply and demand actually looked pretty good. Closings were up for the month and the year:
As were pendings:
And inventory dipped a bit for the month, remaining below year-ago levels:
Months of inventory dropped to about as low a level as we've seen this year.
So prices took a bit of a short-term hit (at least according to the imperfect median data), but the reasonably sound supply/demand situation argues against any serious price whackage in the immediate future.
Meanwhile, in the forums, Racer5 (a fellow IPA enthusiast, I can only assume) reminds us that the conforming loan limit for San Diego will drop from $697K to $546K at the end of this month. This will not have a big impact on the the aggregate numbers -- the median SD County single family home price was $361k last month, and Zillow notes that fewer than 10% of last year's San Diego mortgage applications would have been impacted by this change. However, this could certainly have an effect in some of the sub-markets with houses in the general $800k range. As a counterpoint, perhaps private lenders will step into the breach, and the fact that rates are so ridiculously low will ease the impact in any case. And this all assumes the limit change is allowed to happen... as you might expect, home builder and realtor lobbyist thugs are all over Congress to extend the limits. All in all it should be interesting to see how this plays out.
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|* Rich Toscano is a registered representative of and offers securities and investment advisory services through Girard Securities, Inc., a registered Broker/Dealer, Registered Investment Advisor, and member FINRA/SIPC. Pacific Capital Associates is not a subsidiary or affiliate of Girard Securities. The views and opinions expressed on this site are not those of Pacific Capital Associates or Girard Securities, Inc. The information on this site should not be construed as investment advice.|