August 2011 Resale Housing Data Rodeo - With Words!

Submitted by Rich Toscano on September 20, 2011 - 9:42am
Well, I didn't say the words would be interesting or anything.  But there are some.

The median price per square foot took a bit of a hit last month, falling for both detached homes and condos and down about 3% overall.



This takes the Case-Shiller index proxy down to the low it saw in March:



If this estimation is correct, then we are very close to hitting a new inflation-adjusted low for post-bubble home prices in San Diego.

Same charts with calendar lines to indicate seasonality.  We are definitely into what is usually the weak half of the year.





Notwithstanding the price weakness, supply and demand actually looked pretty good.  Closings were up for the month and the year:



As were pendings:



And inventory dipped a bit for the month, remaining below year-ago levels:



Months of inventory dropped to about as low a level as we've seen this year.



So prices took a bit of a short-term hit (at least according to the imperfect median data), but the reasonably sound supply/demand situation argues against any serious price whackage in the immediate future. 

Meanwhile, in the forums, Racer5 (a fellow IPA enthusiast, I can only assume) reminds us that the conforming loan limit for San Diego will drop from $697K to $546K at the end of this month.  This will not have a big impact on the the aggregate numbers -- the median SD County single family home price was $361k last month, and Zillow notes that fewer than 10% of last year's San Diego mortgage applications would have been impacted by this change.  However, this could certainly have an effect in some of the sub-markets with houses in the general $800k range.  As a counterpoint, perhaps private lenders will step into the breach, and the fact that rates are so ridiculously low will ease the impact in any case.  And this all assumes the limit change is allowed to happen... as you might expect, home builder and realtor lobbyist thugs are all over Congress to extend the limits.  All in all it should be interesting to see how this plays out.

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Submitted by moneymaker on September 22, 2011 - 10:29am.

Looks like a double dip coming. I'm ready for it.

Submitted by jonb on September 24, 2011 - 10:39am.

Kanadian with Cash living in a cold environment waiting and wondering when the right time will come to buy near Balboa Park or DT. I don't see the local underpinnings in the SD economy that could support an increase in RE prices in the short term. Can anyone predict the bottom of this market?

Submitted by FormerSanDiegan on September 26, 2011 - 1:52pm.

jonb wrote:
Kanadian with Cash living in a cold environment waiting and wondering when the right time will come to buy near Balboa Park or DT. I don't see the local underpinnings in the SD economy that could support an increase in RE prices in the short term. Can anyone predict the bottom of this market?

April 17, 2009 at 9:37 pm.

Submitted by moneymaker on September 28, 2011 - 6:31am.

Sounds familiar. Wasn't the government sucking on the tax tit about that time.

Submitted by stpiermj on September 30, 2011 - 12:41pm.

Rich, Any chance you could compare this market cycle with the previous cycle and then provide reasons for any disparities? That would be interesting data. I bought based on your data summaries, and I would like to say thanks a lot! I bought just before the bottom. R/Mario

Submitted by Rich Toscano on September 30, 2011 - 12:50pm.

stpiermj wrote:
Rich, Any chance you could compare this market cycle with the previous cycle and then provide reasons for any disparities? That would be interesting data. I bought based on your data summaries, and I would like to say thanks a lot! I bought just before the bottom. R/Mario

Does that mean the bottom is in? ;-)

In brief, in this cycle prices got way more overpriced, resulting in a much bigger crash to get back to fair value. (See longer term graphs here http://piggington.com/shambling_towards_... )

The primary reason for the disparity was the explosion in risky mortgage lending.

Submitted by Jazzman on October 1, 2011 - 8:01am.

Hopefully the loan limit will happen, as it is in the upper price range that there still needs to be a significant correction. We know from anecdotal evidence larger balances have received preferential treatment in the foreclosure circus, and that persuading brokers to put in realistic offers is tough for many of these now underwater homes. And in this respect many REO's and short sales still suffer bureaucratic dislocation from reality. It only takes five minutes research to see what many homes were selling for 15, or even 10 years ago to realize the NAR and it's cronies have done a splendiferous job of convincing us again that FMV is indeed fair. How all this can still be happening when everything else around crumbles confounds even the most fertile imaginings.

Submitted by moneymaker on October 2, 2011 - 8:06pm.

I think we are still living in the shadow of the housing bubble. Many flippers tried their best this year to time the market but I believe they were too early out of the blocks. I'm not saying it's not a good time to buy, just that inflation in housing may not be in our immediate future. Some things have gone up and some have gone down, I think people are weaning themselves off those things that went up. Nobody likes to think they over paid for anything. Without jobs I think the recovery will be slow. Oh yeah and buy AMD so that I can make some dough. I predict the Chinese will start buying into our tech sector.

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