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5 Comments

  1. an
    December 18, 2011 @ 7:28 PM

    If the job recovery continue
    If the job recovery continue at the rate it has been growing over the last 2 years, we probably will be back to peak employment level in about 2 years. Not too shabby.

  2. poorgradstudent
    December 20, 2011 @ 9:07 AM

    Definitely a very positive
    Definitely a very positive data point. Even the bubble sectors have added jobs for the past 5 months, while private non-bubble looks to be picking up steam. Hopefully this can create a nice snowball effect as more jobs creates more demand.

    • Rich Toscano
      December 20, 2011 @ 9:33 AM

      poorgradstudent
      [quote=poorgradstudent]Definitely a very positive data point. Even the bubble sectors have added jobs for the past 5 months, while private non-bubble looks to be picking up steam. Hopefully this can create a nice snowball effect as more jobs creates more demand.[/quote]

      I made this same point when jobs were plummeting, and people were making basically the exact opposite point that you are. Employment is a lagging indicator of economic growth. Which is another way of saying, the causality doesn’t go from jobs -> growth, it goes from growth -> jobs. So while these numbers are interesting in their own right, I don’t think they have much predictive capability.

      • CA renter
        December 22, 2011 @ 4:46 PM

        Rich Toscano
        [quote=Rich Toscano][quote=poorgradstudent]Definitely a very positive data point. Even the bubble sectors have added jobs for the past 5 months, while private non-bubble looks to be picking up steam. Hopefully this can create a nice snowball effect as more jobs creates more demand.[/quote]

        I made this same point when jobs were plummeting, and people were making basically the exact opposite point that you are. Employment is a lagging indicator of economic growth. Which is another way of saying, the causality doesn’t go from jobs -> growth, it goes from growth -> jobs. So while these numbers are interesting in their own right, I don’t think they have much predictive capability.[/quote]

        But couldn’t one argue that a better job market increases optimism and confidence, which would make people more inclined to spend and take on more debt, resulting in higher demand/growth?

        Either way, this is definitely good news. I hope this trend continues.

  3. Anonymous
    December 22, 2011 @ 10:43 AM

    Nice it explains a lot.
    Nice it explains a lot. Thanks.

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