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June 4, 2010 at 10:17 AM in reply to: Has libertarianism been exposed for the fraud that it is? #560234June 4, 2010 at 10:17 AM in reply to: Has libertarianism been exposed for the fraud that it is? #560336
XBoxBoy
ParticipantYou know, I’m half reluctant to even post to this thread because I agree that this is gonna degenerate into partisan name calling, and Bush is gonna be called a libertarian, and somehow libertarianism is gonna be blamed for everything wrong. But I’m gonna take a stab at trying to contribute a meaningful constructive post, and hope that my comments don’t just get sprayed with polemic tripe from the bleachers.
I would have to admit that I have thought of myself as basically libertarian for a number of years. I’ve been very anti-government, and largely in favor of free markets and allowing people as much freedom as possible. I find the ideology of this very attractive.
However in the last year I’ve come to seriously question this. At this point I think it’s pretty safe to say that deregulation of various industries, particularly financial industries, has been a full blown disaster.
While free markets sound great, clearly in practice they suffer from issues. Some of these issues we admit to and try to address, (like monopolies and bank runs) and others we ignore or deny. (like greed getting out of hand, looting of companies, fraud, corruption, and theft)
But while I’m losing my taste for libertarianism, I’m totally baffled as to how to best regulate markets. From my perspective the govt is not capable of doing so. (Witness the financial reform efforts, and all the totally captured regulators)
Which leads me to my biggest issue. In the past, the argument has been big govt vs free markets. But I suspect that this is not what determines our success or failure as a society. What does determine our success is the amount of corruption vs responsible behavior. While I’m no economics expert, and I’m not sure where to find the data, I’m of the opinion that there are economies that do surprisingly well despite large govts. (I’m thinking Sweden, maybe Norway, etc) They are successful because despite large govt sectors their corruption isn’t that high. Whereas other economies with large govt sectors often have massive corruption, and so they are disasters.
So, I suggest to you piggs, that the issue really isn’t libertarism vs socialism, or republicans vs democrats, it’s how do we convince people in our society that it really is important that they fight corruption and act responsibly? If we have free markets, and everyone participates in these markets fairly and honestly, not ripping off others prosperity will flow. Likewise, I’ve come to the conclusion that having socialism is fine too, provided we can convince those in the govt to be responsible, not corrupt and to play fair. But both of those last two sentences point out the problem. How do you convince people to play fair? I wish I had a clue, but sadly I don’t. Guess that explains why I’m pessimistic about our collective future.
XBoxBox
June 4, 2010 at 10:17 AM in reply to: Has libertarianism been exposed for the fraud that it is? #560616ParticipantYou know, I’m half reluctant to even post to this thread because I agree that this is gonna degenerate into partisan name calling, and Bush is gonna be called a libertarian, and somehow libertarianism is gonna be blamed for everything wrong. But I’m gonna take a stab at trying to contribute a meaningful constructive post, and hope that my comments don’t just get sprayed with polemic tripe from the bleachers.
I would have to admit that I have thought of myself as basically libertarian for a number of years. I’ve been very anti-government, and largely in favor of free markets and allowing people as much freedom as possible. I find the ideology of this very attractive.
However in the last year I’ve come to seriously question this. At this point I think it’s pretty safe to say that deregulation of various industries, particularly financial industries, has been a full blown disaster.
While free markets sound great, clearly in practice they suffer from issues. Some of these issues we admit to and try to address, (like monopolies and bank runs) and others we ignore or deny. (like greed getting out of hand, looting of companies, fraud, corruption, and theft)
But while I’m losing my taste for libertarianism, I’m totally baffled as to how to best regulate markets. From my perspective the govt is not capable of doing so. (Witness the financial reform efforts, and all the totally captured regulators)
Which leads me to my biggest issue. In the past, the argument has been big govt vs free markets. But I suspect that this is not what determines our success or failure as a society. What does determine our success is the amount of corruption vs responsible behavior. While I’m no economics expert, and I’m not sure where to find the data, I’m of the opinion that there are economies that do surprisingly well despite large govts. (I’m thinking Sweden, maybe Norway, etc) They are successful because despite large govt sectors their corruption isn’t that high. Whereas other economies with large govt sectors often have massive corruption, and so they are disasters.
So, I suggest to you piggs, that the issue really isn’t libertarism vs socialism, or republicans vs democrats, it’s how do we convince people in our society that it really is important that they fight corruption and act responsibly? If we have free markets, and everyone participates in these markets fairly and honestly, not ripping off others prosperity will flow. Likewise, I’ve come to the conclusion that having socialism is fine too, provided we can convince those in the govt to be responsible, not corrupt and to play fair. But both of those last two sentences point out the problem. How do you convince people to play fair? I wish I had a clue, but sadly I don’t. Guess that explains why I’m pessimistic about our collective future.
XBoxBox
ParticipantWhile you list the months of inventory in La Jolla as only 9 months, I always look at it from a different data point. I look at the number of single family residences listed for sale.
In 2006 and 2007 that number was almost always under 200 and in the slow season (winter) it was under 150. Currently it’s hovering around 280. The alltime high I’ve seen is just over 300 and that was at the end of last summer. Typically the number grows throughout the summer then drop after thanksgiving. Given that it’s at 280 and summer hasn’t even officially started, (well lest by memorial day to labor day standards) I suspect we’ll see record numbers of inventory before long.
One disclaimer I’ll say about inventory in high end places. There is always a good bit of inventory that is very unrealistically priced, and the seller is in no hurry to sell. How much of what is listed falls into this category? Can’t tell you, don’t know. But this class of seller makes the inventory numbers somewhat meaningless.
XBoxBoy
ParticipantWhile you list the months of inventory in La Jolla as only 9 months, I always look at it from a different data point. I look at the number of single family residences listed for sale.
In 2006 and 2007 that number was almost always under 200 and in the slow season (winter) it was under 150. Currently it’s hovering around 280. The alltime high I’ve seen is just over 300 and that was at the end of last summer. Typically the number grows throughout the summer then drop after thanksgiving. Given that it’s at 280 and summer hasn’t even officially started, (well lest by memorial day to labor day standards) I suspect we’ll see record numbers of inventory before long.
One disclaimer I’ll say about inventory in high end places. There is always a good bit of inventory that is very unrealistically priced, and the seller is in no hurry to sell. How much of what is listed falls into this category? Can’t tell you, don’t know. But this class of seller makes the inventory numbers somewhat meaningless.
XBoxBoy
ParticipantWhile you list the months of inventory in La Jolla as only 9 months, I always look at it from a different data point. I look at the number of single family residences listed for sale.
In 2006 and 2007 that number was almost always under 200 and in the slow season (winter) it was under 150. Currently it’s hovering around 280. The alltime high I’ve seen is just over 300 and that was at the end of last summer. Typically the number grows throughout the summer then drop after thanksgiving. Given that it’s at 280 and summer hasn’t even officially started, (well lest by memorial day to labor day standards) I suspect we’ll see record numbers of inventory before long.
One disclaimer I’ll say about inventory in high end places. There is always a good bit of inventory that is very unrealistically priced, and the seller is in no hurry to sell. How much of what is listed falls into this category? Can’t tell you, don’t know. But this class of seller makes the inventory numbers somewhat meaningless.
XBoxBoy
ParticipantWhile you list the months of inventory in La Jolla as only 9 months, I always look at it from a different data point. I look at the number of single family residences listed for sale.
In 2006 and 2007 that number was almost always under 200 and in the slow season (winter) it was under 150. Currently it’s hovering around 280. The alltime high I’ve seen is just over 300 and that was at the end of last summer. Typically the number grows throughout the summer then drop after thanksgiving. Given that it’s at 280 and summer hasn’t even officially started, (well lest by memorial day to labor day standards) I suspect we’ll see record numbers of inventory before long.
One disclaimer I’ll say about inventory in high end places. There is always a good bit of inventory that is very unrealistically priced, and the seller is in no hurry to sell. How much of what is listed falls into this category? Can’t tell you, don’t know. But this class of seller makes the inventory numbers somewhat meaningless.
XBoxBoy
ParticipantWhile you list the months of inventory in La Jolla as only 9 months, I always look at it from a different data point. I look at the number of single family residences listed for sale.
In 2006 and 2007 that number was almost always under 200 and in the slow season (winter) it was under 150. Currently it’s hovering around 280. The alltime high I’ve seen is just over 300 and that was at the end of last summer. Typically the number grows throughout the summer then drop after thanksgiving. Given that it’s at 280 and summer hasn’t even officially started, (well lest by memorial day to labor day standards) I suspect we’ll see record numbers of inventory before long.
One disclaimer I’ll say about inventory in high end places. There is always a good bit of inventory that is very unrealistically priced, and the seller is in no hurry to sell. How much of what is listed falls into this category? Can’t tell you, don’t know. But this class of seller makes the inventory numbers somewhat meaningless.
XBoxBoy
Participant[quote=KSMountain]BP (per original post) might be a good choice.
I read their market cap is down $50B since the accident. Might that be overdone? [/quote]
According to this estimate, they could owe 60Billion just in fines. Plus clean up costs and liabilities to fishermen and others who’s business will be hurt by the oil spill. Don’t know if this article is accurate or not.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/may/26/bp-extra-60bn-legal-costs
Participant[quote=KSMountain]BP (per original post) might be a good choice.
I read their market cap is down $50B since the accident. Might that be overdone? [/quote]
According to this estimate, they could owe 60Billion just in fines. Plus clean up costs and liabilities to fishermen and others who’s business will be hurt by the oil spill. Don’t know if this article is accurate or not.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/may/26/bp-extra-60bn-legal-costs
Participant[quote=KSMountain]BP (per original post) might be a good choice.
I read their market cap is down $50B since the accident. Might that be overdone? [/quote]
According to this estimate, they could owe 60Billion just in fines. Plus clean up costs and liabilities to fishermen and others who’s business will be hurt by the oil spill. Don’t know if this article is accurate or not.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/may/26/bp-extra-60bn-legal-costs
Participant[quote=KSMountain]BP (per original post) might be a good choice.
I read their market cap is down $50B since the accident. Might that be overdone? [/quote]
According to this estimate, they could owe 60Billion just in fines. Plus clean up costs and liabilities to fishermen and others who’s business will be hurt by the oil spill. Don’t know if this article is accurate or not.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/may/26/bp-extra-60bn-legal-costs
Participant[quote=KSMountain]BP (per original post) might be a good choice.
I read their market cap is down $50B since the accident. Might that be overdone? [/quote]
According to this estimate, they could owe 60Billion just in fines. Plus clean up costs and liabilities to fishermen and others who’s business will be hurt by the oil spill. Don’t know if this article is accurate or not.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/may/26/bp-extra-60bn-legal-costs
Participant[quote=cantab]Despite the recent declines, it’s hard to see any asset classes that are really cheap now by historical standards.[/quote]
That’s exactly what happens when the government floods the market with cheap money. Too much money chasing too few good investments. Sadly, I don’t think there are any good assets to be bought at cheap prices. Wish it wasn’t so, but sure seems that way to me.
XBoxBoy
Participant[quote=cantab]Despite the recent declines, it’s hard to see any asset classes that are really cheap now by historical standards.[/quote]
That’s exactly what happens when the government floods the market with cheap money. Too much money chasing too few good investments. Sadly, I don’t think there are any good assets to be bought at cheap prices. Wish it wasn’t so, but sure seems that way to me.
XBoxBoy
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