[XBoxBoy]

From watching the La Jolla market, I can tell you that there is plenty of craziness and only a couple of people pricing their houses realistically. And btw, that house on lamplight you refer to was on the market for months before they bought it at $1.8m. With a bunch of open houses and lots of marketing, so I can guarantee you they didn’t get it at “below market”. More likely the seller popped a champagne bottle when it finally sold.

Here’s another house that is similar. Bought in 2005 for 1,950,000 and now wants to sell for $2.3m to $2.6m. (Hah! Lots of luck!)

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-076081009-5582_Calle_Miramar_La_Jolla_CA_92037

Maybe these guys should talk to the owner of this property:

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-076045532-5348_Chelsea_La_Jolla_CA_92037

They bought for $2.9m in 2006 and have been trying to sell at $2.65m (a $250k loss not counting fees and costs) with no takers for months. So, I don’t think you can say the La Jolla market is going up.

[XBoxBoy]

Alex,

I too share your feelings that I don’t want to make some flipper a bunch of money. But the bottom line is the bottom line. Whoever is offering a better deal on a house is going to be the one that I want to buy from. (Of course, better yet, wait and let them squirm for a while trying to sell their house, and let prices come down before buying.)

The other side of this is that most current owners aren’t offering their homes at very attractive prices yet. (a few, but not many) Whereas big builders have started to discount. And the worst priced homes seem to be from flippers who are in denial. Thus, if I pay attention to the bottom line, a builder is probably the best deal, while flippers are the worst.

Just my two cents worth.

XBoxBoy

[XBoxBoy]

Alex,

I too share your feelings that I don’t want to make some flipper a bunch of money. But the bottom line is the bottom line. Whoever is offering a better deal on a house is going to be the one that I want to buy from. (Of course, better yet, wait and let them squirm for a while trying to sell their house, and let prices come down before buying.)

The other side of this is that most current owners aren’t offering their homes at very attractive prices yet. (a few, but not many) Whereas big builders have started to discount. And the worst priced homes seem to be from flippers who are in denial. Thus, if I pay attention to the bottom line, a builder is probably the best deal, while flippers are the worst.

Just my two cents worth.

XBoxBoy

[XBoxBoy]

Update on the slide

This morning I went for a run up to the cross, and on my way back down the hill, ran down Mount Soledad Rd. If any of you are thinking of swinging by to see if you can see anything, don’t bother, everything is still blocked off. All you can see is the tops of some boring machines poking up in the distance.

You can however, run/walk/drive along Palomino until it turns into Desert View and this loop is open all the way around. (This is the area just downhill from the slide.) Nothing much to see there though. Although I did notice that Desert View has houses built on an extremely steep slope, and hmmmm… there are cracks in the road here too. It’s hard to believe that people have actual built houses on this hillside to be honest.

As to property prices in La Jolla, it’s worth noting that one house that was pending in the Ridgegate community, right up the hill a bit, just fell out of escrow and is back on the market as of today.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-076056124-2425_Darlington_Row_La_Jolla_CA_92037

Think there might be a relationship between the slide and the next couple of days a buyer backs out of a house just up the hill a bit? Seems likely to me…

XboxBoy

[XBoxBoy]

So besides the obvious that the houses directly effected by this will have a serious loss of property values. How will this effect La Jolla in general? What does the wisdom of this board say about this?

It will probably cause all houses in La Jolla to lose some value, if by nothing more than association. But by about how much? Are we talking a couple of percent? Ten percent? Twenty? More? I know no one can give a definitive answer to this, but what are the gut guesses by the folks on piggington to this?

Inquiring minds want to know.

XBoxBoy

[XBoxBoy]

OCRenter, you are confused.

It isn’t Carmel Valley that’s different, it’s La Jolla that’s different and isn’t going to come down in price. I know so, because my realtor told me so.

XBoxBoy

[XBoxBoy]

Shari points out that there are many who are waiting on the sidelines and wonders if we won’t see a second boom when they return. This is a common thinking of people when a bubble first collapses, but almost never proves to hold. Often you get a small correction back up, somewhere around halfway down, but then things turn back to trending down. This is often the case when the stock market drops or commodities drop.

Regardless if it’s stocks or real estate the psychology is the same. When the downturn first starts people sense an opportunity. But by the time the market settles at the bottom, people are more scared, having seen others burned and witnessed some having their fingers cut off while trying to catch a falling knife.

If most of the predictions on this board are anywhere near accurate, it will be a year or two before things bottom out. By then the real estate thinking of many of your investors will probably have changed. First off, many people will realize by then that values won’t pick up for quite some time. There will be far more understanding that real estate isn’t historically a very good investment. Probably lending will not be loose and readily available. Plus, most of the non-investors will have become gun shy. After seeing friends or maybe themselves foreclosed on, the average joe is gonna be a lot less likely to take on a mortgage. So, you maybe be sensing a lot of waiting buyers right now, but the overall number of people willing to plunk down their money is dropping, and will continue to drop. And that’s what matters, not the number of people who say they are waiting to buy.

XBoxBoy

[XBoxBoy]

bsrsharma, you’re ignoring what he didn’t do…

you wrote about Greenspan:
His mission is to keep the FFR as low as possible and money supply sufficient without causing undue inflation and promote near full employment. On those grounds he was excellent. Considering the challenges in his tenure, he performed brilliantly.

Yes, he may have steered the ship well, but as the captain he also had a responsibility to alert the passengers to don their life jackets and to check and make sure there were enough life boats. But he didn’t do that. Not at all, and for this omission he will be remembered.

In the end I can’t help shake the feeling that he’s like all the other experts I’ve met in my life. Sure that they know the answers, confident that they will do the right thing, but all too often human, and as such capable of grave errors and misjudgements.

XBoxBoy

[XBoxBoy]

Warning – rumor and gossip in this post!!!

The rumor I heard last night was that there were a bunch of dancers from a strip club who had set up a slip and slid. And when the cops tried to shut down the topless slip and slid, that’s when the trouble broke out. Which if you ask me seems like a pretty good reason to riot!!!

Just a rumor though….

[XBoxBoy]

bsrsharma, never confuse someone who is smart with someone who knows what’s going on. It always seems to me that the smartest guys are the best at deceiving themselves. Hopefully, I’m wrong about this, and Mr. Bernanke will do the right things and steer the economy in the right direction. It’s just I’ve seen plenty of very smart experts totally mislead themselves. (Matter of fact isn’t that exactly the lesson of Long Term Capital Management’s failure?)

[XBoxBoy]

bsrsharma, I sure hope you’re right that it’s just talk to keep the politicians happy. I just keep getting the uneasy feeling that he’s really in delusion land, thinking that a little more liquidity, a little more credit, more creativity, and viola, we have a nice growing economy. Guess we’ll see soon enough.

[XBoxBoy]

bsrsharma asks:
XboxBoy – Are you seeing any evidence of true homelessness? Not just people moving to lower cost area or having their investment/flipper home foreclosed.

Not seeing more homelessness as in people on the street pushing shopping carts, but people who have been foreclosed on moving out of town or into smaller rentals.

[XBoxBoy]

bsrsharma asks:
XboxBoy – Are you seeing any evidence of true homelessness? Not just people moving to lower cost area or having their investment/flipper home foreclosed.

Not seeing more homelessness as in people on the street pushing shopping carts, but people who have been foreclosed on moving out of town or into smaller rentals.

[XBoxBoy]

bsrsharma asks:
XboxBoy – Are you seeing any evidence of true homelessness? Not just people moving to lower cost area or having their investment/flipper home foreclosed.

Not seeing more homelessness as in people on the street pushing shopping carts, but people who have been foreclosed on moving out of town or into smaller rentals.

[XBoxBoy]

For what it’s worth….

Not sure why you aren’t seeing the effects, but I do know quite a number of people who have left San Diego over the last couple of years, citing the high cost of housing as a principle reason. Also know of some who have been foreclosed on. So, they are out there.

Also, keep in mind that the wave of foreclosures is just really getting started. The big jumps in statistics we are seeing are mostly the first stages of foreclosure. In six months there will be lots more foreclosures in the final stages.

XBoxBoy

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