[XBoxBoy]

Real estate capital gains aren’t any different than other capital gains are they? If you had made 3m on bitcoin or stocks, you’d pay the same wouldn’t you? And if you’d made 3m as a salaried employee I’m pretty sure your rates would be even higher. So why is money earned off real estate being taxed at a comparable level outrageous?

[XBoxBoy]

[quote=sdrealtor]Virtually no one keeps a loan for 30 years and few are still in place 10 years later.[/quote]

I would bet that the percentage of people keeping their 30 year loans more than 10 years will increase in the coming decades. A lot of people with really low rates ain’t going no where, and probably won’t get a good opportunity to refinance. Just a hunch.

[XBoxBoy]

It’s funny. We keep talking about tech workers, but the other day I called a company’s customer service and while I’m on the line with the service rep. I could hear her also telling her kid that she needed to be quiet while mom’s on the phone. I guess she could have brought her kid into work, but I suspect she was working from home. And if you think about it, she’s saving money because she doesn’t need to pay child care, and the company is able to get a low wage worker that they otherwise might not have been able to. I don’t think this work from home thing is just about high paid tech workers.

[XBoxBoy]

[quote=flu]I didn’t even know sabbatical existed at my company.[/quote]
So when’s your sabbatical gonna be?

[XBoxBoy]

First thought: You are trying to time the market, always a dangerous strategy.

Second thought: If I had cash that I was looking to invest for the long haul, I would probably buy some etf that is a broad market investment. (Like SCHB) So, yeah I guess that means I think it’s as good a time as any to buy into the market. (Of course I’ve been wrong about that timing thing more than once in my life so take that advice as being worth what you paid for it.)

[XBoxBoy]

[quote=zk]
What if he sees that before long the economic sanctions are going to ruin his country?
[/quote]

I doubt that Putin thinks this now. He’s probably thinking that just like the past he’ll find ways to work around the sanctions. I have no idea whether the sanctions will stick this time around, but I doubt Putin is scared about sanctions. (If the sanctions do hold he might become concerned in the future, but not yet.)

[quote=zk]
What if he senses that the oligarchs are going to turn on him? In what way could the oligarchs turn on him besides assassinating him?
[/quote]

I doubt they will, and I doubt he’s worried about this either. I would imagine that Putin sees the oligarchs as his tribe. (As much as anyone is in his tribe.) As former KGB I’m sure he’s a bit paranoid and suspicious of those who would come after him, but probably oligarchs aren’t really the ones he needs to concern himself with. (Military and KGB are probably more likely to be an issue, they are the ones with the guns after all.)

[quote=zk]
It doesn’t seem at all unlikely that he will soon conclude that it’s him or all of us. Would he push the button then? Would somebody stop him?
[/quote]

Putin will use nukes if the military situation escalates enough. But at this point Putin’s military losses are minor. He’s finding more resistant than he’d like, but nothing that his army can’t overcome. But if NATO or the USA sends in troops and the situation escalates, all bets are off. (Please don’t take that last sentence as an argument for or against NATO or USA military action, that’s a whole other conversation that I’m not addressing here.)

[quote=zk]
What are the chances that putin just gives up and retreats? Practically zero, I would guess. I think the most likely outcome is an occupation of Ukraine by putin. No revelation there. But then what?
[/quote]

My suspicion is that the USA and NATO do not actively defend Ukraine and it falls to Russian control in another week or two. Things get interesting then. USA and NATO will try to turn Ukraine into a revisit of Afghanistan for the Russians. I would not be surprised to see the USA/NATO support resistance that makes holding Ukraine costly and bloody.

[quote=zk]
Between economic sanctions and the costs of war, Russia can’t economically survive for long.
[/quote]

Hmmm… I disagree. Russia will probably not be as prosperous, but that is completely different than not being able to survive. And my biggest point here is that you are trying to look at this situation with the expectation that the participants will act rationally. But people aren’t rational, and instead there will be many people in Russia who will support Putin because he’s trying to fight for Russia against those “others” who are trying to hold our glorious country back. If you learned nothing about the last few years in the USA, take note of how rationality has little to do with what people think and how much tribalism and nationalistic patriotism does impact peoples beliefs and who they support. (And actually, I think you do know this, you just need to remember it now.)

[quote=zk]
I have no idea whether the oligarchs will put up with that, and I don’t really know whether or not they have both the capability and the huevos to assasinate putin. If they don’t, then what? Putin just watches his country die while his citizens turn against him?
[/quote]

I doubt people in Russia start to die off en mass due to sanctions or resistance in an occupied Ukraine. Instead, things just plod along, and Putin remains in control and fabulously well to do. (Some argue that Putin is far and away the richest man in the world, it’s just that his wealth is hidden. I have no idea how true that is or isn’t though. But the point is that Putin and his cronies still remain in power and live comfortable lives.)

The biggest upshot out of this is probably a surprising change of opinion in European Union that NATO is not an outdated organization that we shouldn’t support. Nothing brings people (in this case the people of Europe) together than the feeling that they have a common enemy.

[quote=zk]
Propaganda is a strong force, especially in Russia. I suppose it’s possible that his citizens, deceived by his propaganda, won’t think it’s his fault in sufficient numbers and with sufficient energy to do anything about it.[/quote]

See above. More likely for many Russians this will be a popular move on Putins part. Just like the USA has pro-Trump and anti-Trump, there will be pro-Putin and anti-Putin. (although anti-Putin won’t be too vocal publicly) But bottom line, this probably plays out okay for Putin in Russia.

[quote=zk]
Whether they turn against him or not, though, the country will be economically devastated within, I don’t know, a couple years anyway. Is putin just going to sit there and let that happen? Will he just sit there knowing he failed to do anything but ruin two countries, including his beloved Russia? More worryingly, will he, at some point, see all of this ahead of him and lash out before all that happens?
[/quote]

The argument that Russia will be economically devastated is overblown in my opinion. Russia is a big place with lots of resources and lots of industrial capacity. It also will still maintain reasonably friendly relations with a lot of other countries. Just because USA and EU are gonna be pissed off at Putin doesn’t mean that Russia won’t survive. Sure, some oligarchs are gonna have their yachts seized. Maybe some bank accounts, or Manhattan apartments. TFB. They’ll get over it. Sanctions may or may not hold, and even if they do they won’t devastate the country.

Don’t get me wrong here. I do think the invasion of Ukraine is a big deal. And sure there is a chance this escalates into something horrific. But, at this time, it looks like a really bad situation for Ukraine, a bunch of sanctions that will cause some pain to Russia but nothing devastating, and will cause the rest of Europe to think more about their security.

All that said, I have strongly felt for a long time that WWI and WWII taught the world the disaster that nationalism and flag waving patriotism can lead to. But it’s been over 75 years since WWII ended and it seems a lot of that lesson has been forgotten. And if we don’t relearn that lesson some other way, sooner or later nationalism will lead us to another major war. But hopefully I’m not just being foolishly optimistic when I say, “yes, but not yet.”

[XBoxBoy]

[quote=deadzone]
The Nasdaq still has a long way to retrace just to get to pre-covid numbers.[/quote]

Yeah, that’s true. QQQ’s are probably about $100 above their pre-covid level, so another 30%. SPYs about the same, maybe only 20%. And north country real estate would need to drop more than 30% to get to pre-covid levels I suspect.

Which leads me to wonder, are you predicting that things have another 30% to drop from here, or are you just saying, “Things will go down from here, but anyone who bought stocks or real estate and has held if for over two years will still be ahead.” Curious minds want to know.

[XBoxBoy]

Beach houses for under a million? I don’t think that’s been a thing in La Jolla for twenty to thirty years. I have a friend who bought on the beach around 2000 for 3-4 mil. That seems like an absolute steal now.

[XBoxBoy]

[quote=deadzone]
Just another ominous sign for the housing market along with rapidly rising interest rates. [/quote]

I seriously doubt if remote work has driven the housing market much. If it had, then for every area that went up, another would have gone down. But that didn’t happen. Prices are up everywhere. (Well, okay a bit of a drop in St. Georges Utah, but let’s not quibble about details.)

So claiming the end of remote work is going to kill the housing market doesn’t make any sense. If you really want to claim that, you’ve got to provide some data that shows the recent surge in prices is in fact the result of tech workers moving from SV to other places like San Diego. And sorry, but just because some people say that’s what has happened, doesn’t make it so. Show real data that the recent growth in prices is the result of tech workers moving out of SV if you want to make this claim.

[XBoxBoy]

This thread just keeps on being one of the most interesting in a long time. To see all the pessimism and the cynicism that’s put out here is fascinating. Mind you I have no idea if now is a good time to be pessimistic or optimistic. All I know is that I don’t know and neither does anyone else on this thread. It’s just raw biases on display. And to me, that’s fascinating to watch.

And oh yeah, in addition to pessimism there’s a healthy dose of suspicion of conspiracies. Human nature clearly on display here if you care to see it.

[XBoxBoy]

[quote=gzz]The best credit cards these days are Chase, Amex, and Barclay, in that order.[/quote]

Glad those worked out for you, but I had an Amazon Rewards card from Chase. Checking my bill, I found that there was a charge made in Sears in Arizona for a couple hundred bucks. I immediately called Chase and told them I didn’t make the charge. But they told me that the purchase was approved with the chip in my card and that I did make the purchase. (I still had the card in my possession.) I fought them with letters and appeals. Even filed a complaint with the Consumer Credit Bureau. Chase wouldn’t budge. They claimed that the purchase used the chip in the card and that since I still had the card, I must have driven to Arizona, made a purchase at the Sears and forgotten about it. (How would I forget a trip to Arizona???) I’ll never use Chase again.

[XBoxBoy]

[quote=svelte]
In other words, your money is just staying pace with the rate of inflation!

You’re not making money – you’re just breaking even![/quote]

What about 10year treasuries? Currently going for a return of 1.43%! How is that anything other than a ridiculously bad investment. Even if inflation does come back down to 2% in the next year or two, you are still guaranteed to be losing value.

[XBoxBoy]

[quote=barnaby33]That makes no sense.[/quote]

Which part are you saying makes no sense?

That landlords don’t raise rents to fully track inflation?

That the longer a tenant stays the greater the discount they might be getting?

That there is a penalty for moving?

That a landlord might be happy when a tenant moves out because now they raise the rent?

That people get a tax subsidy from prop 13?

That prices have risen such that many people in San Diego couldn’t afford their current residence?

Rents have risen just like house prices?

That with house prices rising people would be reluctant to sell?

That all of the above issues have encouraged people to hold onto their houses, or what I term “house hording”?

[XBoxBoy]

I would add to this that from a home owner’s (or landlords) point of view, there are a number of factors discouraging mobility (or selling):

1) You would lose any tax subsidy due to Prop 13.
2) Prices have risen so much that many people can’t afford anything near as nice as what they have, much less something better.
3) Rents haven risen just like house prices and so lots of rentals are cash positive.
4) When prices are going up so fast, why would you sell? This leads to a psychology of being more inclined to hold onto your current house.

Overall, it seems to me that the current situation has lead to a whole lot of “House Hording”.

[XBoxBoy]

[quote=gzz]The market of people who are good tenants, have 72k a year for rent, and want to stay 12+ months is tiny. Buying makes much more sense.[/quote]

I always thought that, but watching the la jolla market I gotta tell you there are a lot of 6k (or more) a month rentals. In truth, 6k is nothing around here! What shocks me is the number of places around here that rent for more than 15k a month. Just boggles my mind. I mean seriously, who pays 20k or even 30k a month in rent? I don’t know, but it seems people really do pay that.

[Author]

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