[Wiley]

Nugent Rocks. I don’t think anyone could say it better then that. You’ll never get a perfect and safe world so why let a few elites dictate whether or not you have the right to defend yourself.

Everyone believes we live in a free society but it is anything but. The government is now dictating just about everything we can and can’t do. Just think about all the regulation already in place for real estate and yet the biggest cases of fraud are about to be unfolded.

On the news tonight they were ranting on about why the security wasn’t better at the Texas shooting. Christ if someone wants to kill someone security in a builing isn’t going to stop them. Are you going to secure the parking lot. The drive home, etc.

This stuff makes me crazy as all americans want the govt to solve all the problems for them.

So Former, your telling me that if I go through a safety class, pass a background check that I shouldn’t have the right to carry a gun for my own protection?

[Wiley]

Cabinboy,

Lets say you bought the dow in 2001. You are just now up 6 or 7%. So you made 1% a year. You are just now getting back and above even.

Now factor in inflation and where are you. A big loser. (not you, your investment).

Investments need to be analyzed in relative terms. If the dollar loses 32% of it’s value in the same time your investment got back to even then you lose. (using dollar index for this)

I believe the german stock market made advance through its hyper-inflationary period. You couldn’t really buy anything with the marks at the end but you were “up” on your investment.

Relative to….
housing
oil
commodities
gold
silver
emerging markets

the dow has been a loser.

I don’t think its so much a collective bearish view here. I believe people are realizing that things aren’t right and in need of confirmation/answers/whatever.

Just my thoughts.

Wiley

[Wiley]

I think it’s pretty simple, but I’m just a simple guy.

The government is never going to bail out the people. They may bail out any of the big banks that may have exposure and dress it up like its a people bail out.

There is good history of this happening through the IMF lending to third world country’s where we bail out the defaulting country but payment must be made immediately with the proceeds to the lender (U.S. bank), who then gives them a new loan.

The lenders themselves may try and prolong the agony but in the end the market will win out and the excessive crazy financing will get purged. Anything beyond that is noise IMO.

However its one more reason to own gold. If they try and monetize fanny’s and freddies debt that will be just one more reason in a parade of reasons for the dollars decline.

[Wiley]

Party,

I would hope Obama takes advice from Buffett. From what I’ve read about him (Buffett) he’s very much a straight shooter and obviously very savy on matters of economics. Rich does not always equal corrupt or bad intentions.

In the end it really doesn’t matter who you vote for. I can assure you either party will grow the government. They always have. This is the fundamental problem. I think we’re at the point where even a Ron Paul couldn’t stop it from happening.

Gov’t is so big and powerful now and Americans are so apathetic to the tyranny they are voting in for themselves that I think it’s all futile to even debate the merits of one candidate or another.

There…I killed the thread.

[Wiley]

I believe whenever the margins get too fat there will be clever entrepeneurs come in and cut up the pie. http://www.iggyshousebeta.com/ and buyside realty look like they are making a run at it. Lots of these type of deals will go by the wayside but eventually one or two will succeed and be a destructive force for the realty industry, IMO. At iggy’s you can list your home on the MLS for free.

I’m sure those that have sales talent will always be able to make a nice living as they do in most industries but it will change with technology.

[Wiley]

SD,

Your points are well taken and since I’m in a similar business I agree. One of the things that gets me is that realtors commission have doubled in four years (in terms of the prices of houses have doubled).

So unless or until there some serious price reductions the margins are very high relative to four years ago.

[Wiley]

You cannot change the direction a market wants to go…it can only be manipulated briefly against that direction. Fundamentals always win out.

[Wiley]

I don’t know. How much premium is there in a couple middleman, transporters, and refining. Take those out and bottle it (assuming there would be a market for crude oil) and I’d say it might be cheaper then bottled gas at this price.

Adjusted for inflation we’re still about $30 a barrell behind the last price spike.

[Wiley]

Is oil really expensive at $65/bl ???

Doesn’t that convert to about .65cents a cup for gas?

You certainly can’t buy water, coffee, etc for that price.

[Wiley]

1. financing didn’t turn off in past declines (like it will this time)
2. homeownership rates were not as high
3. levels of saving among population were much higher
4. our fundamentals are worse then Japans before their asset deflation started
5. personal liabilities as % of income were not as high
6. gov’t liabilities for entitlements and current spening were not as high which will surely lead to higher taxes the previous periods.
7. the list goes on

IMHO most predictions will be far too conservative in their decline rates.

[Wiley]

Concho,

Since 2001…

HUI up 700%
Gold up 145%
Silver up 190%

Now the “ungamed” stuff…

$INDU up 15%
QQQ down 24%

I think the smart money IS speaking about the future. Also the only time the FED will raise rates will be after the market does and as such will always be behind which is inflactionary. Respectfully I think your trusting the wrong people at the wrong time. That is what the market is saying.

[Wiley]

I would love to know how many full doc loans had an IRS tax return form completed and requested to verify income. Any mortgage people here to provide info?

I believe there was sooo much money chasing these loans that the fraud involved in all levels of credit/classifications is enormous. There isn’t anyone I know from my hair dresser to my cleaning guy that didn’t buy a house in the last two years.

I predict the lending will get very tight next year and the real bloodletting will begin then. This is only a prelim.

[Wiley]

Would have been a good trade I agree but I’ve never meet anyone nimble enough to make those trades more then once.

As for other plays I like HOG (huge originators of their harley paper) and ACF, subprime auto lender.

[Wiley]

I thought about shorting NEW months ago when someone mentioned it on this board. Didn’t do it and went with BKUNA instead. Not because I researched the financials of each, just read a compelling story about BKUNA on another financial site.

Curious if anyone else has looked at them? The stock certainly isn’t performing as bad as the others so wondering if they are takeover target or something. If not they should be plunging shortly I hope.

The technicals don’t bode well for it but hey, what do I know, I missed the awesome NEW trade.

Wiley

[Wiley]

It’s fraud.

[Author]

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