[Wiley]

Gold is insurance. Better to buy insurance before you need it, especially when you think you might need it.

Money supply doubling in last 7 years
Incredible amount of leverage partly due to Yen carry trade
War
Entitlement spending now/future
Rolling over of economic indicators
Current Account deficit
Trade deficit
Budget deficit

Maybe I’m wrong but it sure feels like a good time to have insurance.

[Wiley]

from a man a lot smarter then I…

“Gold as it becomes a commodity becomes less valuable. As it becomes a currency gold becomes infinitely more valuable, seeking to balance the Balance Sheet of the USA Inc. in terms of externally held dollar instruments vs. the value of the nation’s holdings of gold. This value was $900 in 1980 and now stands close to $1,650.” Jim Sinclair

[Wiley]

I’m of the opinion it doesn’t matter whether they cut or not. It only matters whether they are behind the curve of the bond market at this point in the game. Which they are and have been. Realistically the easy money regime has created so much leverage to this point I believe a cleansing is written in stone.

I don’t expect much from exports as we’ve already sent our manufacturing base overseas.

[Wiley]

qcomer,

MCD. Nice multiple reverse head and shoulder patterns. Don’t own it and don’t know its financials but definately and international player.

The dollar is toast. Buy gold.

[Wiley]

"he remembers the volatility over the years"

me thinks he bought gold Jan 1980???

[Wiley]

Do you really need a $350 fine to persuade you not to run a red light. I know the real motivation is not colliding with whoever might be travelling in the opposite direction. So whats the real motivation of having a camera. It might be a misguided belief that more people will stop but I have my doubts.

I remember reading in the OC register one time about how much money the camera makes daily in San Juan Capistrano (got me one time). I don’t remember but it was unbelievable.

Everyone wants a simple fix to have the perfect world but it doesn’t work that way. Regardless of the laws passed and different means of enforcing them, the same percentage of people are going to do good as well as the percentage of people doing bad.

How many people make 35k a year? We need to fine them 10% of their monthly pretax income to get their attention. I don’t think so. It’s crazy.

[Wiley]

I think your view has merit. However I’m a believer that three main things will continue to drive commodities…

Worldwide increase in money supply
Asian/India boom
Loss of faith in financial assetts (instability, corruption, etc.)

and I guess I’d throw in the cycles say its time.

and perhaps supply deficits due to them being out of favor for so long and not receiving investments into infrastructure, etc.

I went over three didn’t I?

So to stay on topic I’d say we’re about 60% commodities: futures on grains/gas, physical in gold/silver, as well as stocks on commodity based companies, the rest cash. No real estate. Some shorts on the market.

Oh and on Rogers he has a very long and successful track record with his own money. He also made a very timely prediction on the Argentinian peso before it collapsed for which he was ridiculed until it came true a month later. I don’t know for a fact but I would bet money most of his money is somehow invested in commodities.

[Wiley]

Hey PS,

Why don’t you buy him Jim Rogers book Hot Commodities. He has a real talent for cutting out all the noise and explaining things very well. Also his track record speaks for itself. I really like him because of his real world experiences (internationally). I only follow guys that are the real deal and he is one of them.

Wiley

[Wiley]

More importantly though is my judgement worth less because I am not there?

 Yes.

[Wiley]

PS is right.

Jim’s a salesman.

The dollar is toast.

This thread is dead.

Wiley

[Wiley]

PS,

From what I’ve learned about FDIC, I wouldn’t put too much faith in it. For a few banks to fail yes, but a larger systemic problem there is no way FDIC will work. With the state of bankings loan loss reserves these days it is worrysome to me.

I’m definately not an expert on CD’s but I thought there were many forms you can purchase, ie foreigh currency, variable rate, equity indexed, etc. As mentioned inflation and taxes can eat any return you may be getting.

What I guess I don’t understand is how can a bank pay you 5% return. This implies to me they are investing that money in something else that pays a higher return (and thus taking on more risk). Just rambling now.

Wiley

[Wiley]

Hey PS,
Not to be argumentative, but if your getting 5.5% there has to be some risk. What are these CD’s invested in?

[Wiley]

MH, your comments are right on the money.

Deadzone, as I’ve said here before. Dem or Rep…doesn’t matter. They both have and always will grow the govt. And as your growing the gov’t and doing something FOR someone, your doing someing TO someone else.

[Wiley]

A couple thoughts…

Both Dems and Republicans increase government. Always. So whats the difference?

You only need to persuade 1% of the vote when the country is divided down the middle.

Didn’t democracy take hold in Palastine? Gotta love that one.

[Wiley]

I’m sure Warren Buffet would agree with your view on fundamental analysis. (sarcasm on).

Six month or less is not an investment. Its called speculation.

[Author]

Posts