[UTC renter]

I live in one of rental complexes on Regents Rd. I generally dislike the area because, but the picture is mixed. So, starting with the good, the area is clean, safe, and has good access to open space (Rose Canyon). There is very good shopping nearby (Trader’s Joe, Whole Foods, Bristol Farms, plus Vons and Ralphs) and the UTC mall. Also, the proximity to UCSD and other tech/sciency employment centers gives it a certain “educated feel’. More generally, lots of smart people live in this area. On the other hand, I’ve never lived in a more boring place with less of a neighborhood feel. First, it’s all new and corporate. In the area around Regents, Nobel, or Lebon there are NO private houses, only large pre-fabricated apartment complexes. There is very little visual variety, no “street” level retail, except for the mall. Second, given its ‘educated feel’ there are no decent coffee shops, bookstores, interesting art, etc. For all these things, you have to drive to LJ Village or downtown/hillcrest. Third, NOBODY walks, so the area feels dead. One reason is that there is not much to walk to, unless your idea of fun includes hanging out at the mall. The other reason is that all the roads are those big 4 lane thoroughfares with tiny “sidewalks” — more like glorified curbs. So, walking is actually unpleasant and dangerous (I was nearly killed yesterday by someone making a right turn on red, and not expecting a pedestrian).

In short, if you rich, try to live in Del Mar, La Jolla village or nearby (La Jolla shores). If you’re middle-income (i.e., 100K or less), try Hillcrest, affordable parts of Mission Hills, or downtown. If you’re poor, move back to the Midwest – you’ll have higher quality of life there then being yet another sad commuter from the “inland Empire” 😉

[UTC renter]

This is more about a specific complex but it is one of my favorite pretentiously ridiculous names:

La Jolla Village Tennis Club — a mediocre complex in UTC near a very busy feeder road, east of I-5. It is definitely NOT in the LJ village or the actual LJ Tennis Club.

http://www.utc-condos.com/condominiums/la_jolla_village_tennis_club.htm

Welcome to So Cal! — where appearance counts much more than reality!

[UTC renter]

I agree, and think that a decline in housing prices is not only good for the renters like us (for selfish reasons), but for the greater SD community in general. For example, housing costs are a great impediment to hiring. At my institution (a university) we have lost several excellent job candidates due to high housing prices. These people were initially attracted to San Diego by the intellectual resources, the weather and all the funky things that California has to offer. In years past, they would nearly always come from places like the Midwest. But recently, the financial trade-offs simply became to large, and a midwestern scientist often sees no net benefit in trading a nice large home in a nice, comfortable, educated, walkable communities (e.g., Ann Arbor, Bloomington) for a tiny home in commuter suburbs. For us, local recruiters, it is also progressively heard to point out the virtues of the “California dream” while showing the candidates “affordable” 600K tract homes 30 minutes from the university, surrounded by strip malls and chain restaurants.

So, yes, please, keep creating more inventory and crashing those crazy, so San Diego can lure the best and the brightest here! Or, give us bay area wages, nature, and restaurants!

[UTC renter]

fascinating indeed!
these graphs tell a very different story than NAR media snippets. Interestingly, he singles out SD several times, especially when highlighting the incredibly high mortage/income ratio (45%). This is on slide 25 of this latest presentation from the Leadship Summit (August 2006).

Thanks for a great link!

[UTC renter]

well, this is going into philosophy, but the standard way of thinking about bias is by examining logical coherence. For example, let’s say I am given the following premises:

P1: “all people are mortal”
P2 “josh is a person”
then the logically coherent (unbiased) inference is:
C: “josh is mortal”

So, if a housing expert is given the following premises:

P1 “All periods of rapid increase have been followed by a periods of decline”
P2 “We had a very long period of rapid increases”
and the expert says:
“there will be no decline”

I think I am entitled to call the expert biased, or incoherent. Just like I am entitled to dismiss flat-earth believers. Not because they can be very easily proven wrong (as you say, all data are subject to interpretation), but because their argument are typically logically incoherent.

[UTC renter]

Great points, PowaySeller, and interesting story about your adventures with KPBS.  It's very disappointing, given that it is supposed to be a station that promotes independent thought and critical thinking.

I find Tom Fudge better than Gloria Penner (the host of today’s program). She does not prepare well for her shows and mostly giggles when presented with arguments.  You can check her resume here (it's self-explanatory):

http://www.kpbs.org/Radio/DynPage.php?id=414

I think that I am going to switch my support to Voice of San Diego.

[UTC renter]

well, the scary thing that KPBS does NOT sell ads. It is a NPR-affiliated station, which lives off donation of its members (http://www.kpbs.org/default_members.php). In fact, NPR is the closest thing we have to a non-corporate radio.  And that's exactly why it is sad when they fail in their responsibility to educate the public.

Or, are we already living in an Corpo-Orwellian world, where even "independent" institutions, like universities and public radio are controlled by business interests?

[UTC renter]

If you want to call:

888-895-5727

Tim McClain, Editor of San Diego Metropolitan Magazine (or Bob Kittle, Editor of the San Diego Union-Tribune Editorial Page, sound like bulls. One of them said repeatedly that there is no decline on single family homes market (only condos) and the San Diego job market is so strong that it is impossible for a real drop to occur.

[UTC renter]

Indeed. Here is a direct link:

http://money.cnn.com/2006/08/24/real_estate/pluggedin_tully.fortune/index.htm

 

[UTC renter]

Good points. Again, I only wanted to give an example of a perspective from a year ago that is relatively more balanced than the pollyannic UT and North County Times articles posted earlier. But, you are right, Thornberg and UCLA forcast have not fulfilled their responsibilities to the public of providing honest and unbiased view.

[UTC renter]

Sorry, I meant to say that sane (unbiased) economists from other SD universities should not allow that Alan Gin is the sole reprentative of their profession.   In fact, I wonder how he can maintain his independence. Just see: 

http://home.sandiego.edu/~agin/

and

http://www.sandiego.edu/business/index.php?areaid=12 

 

In short, we're on the same page Josh.

[UTC renter]

In principle, university-based economists are supposed to be a source of independent, science-based, predictions. Presumably, that’s what the UCLA forcast is supposed to be all about. In fact, if you read Thornberg’s opinion from almost exactly year ago (8.26.05), his tone is radically different from the boosterism of Nevin, Gin, or Appleton-Young. Here is one example:
http://www.pbs.org/now/politics/thornberg.html
Now, the question is why independent economists from the many San Diego universities (UCSD, SDSU) do not provide more sane voices, and leave it to Alan Gin (UofSan Diego)?

[UTC renter]

Yes, I wonder if they will ever be legally accountable. Probably not. But one could possibly start something like a “hall of shame” archive, where these people’s public comments would be posted for everyone to see.

[UTC renter]

Another one, from December 2005. Just for the record, and general merriment.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20051215/news_1b15outlook.html

Pros see no doom, gloom in slowdown

Bursting of price bubble not in view

By Emmet Pierce
STAFF WRITER

December 15, 2005

A panel of economists and real estate professionals meeting at the University of San Diego said yesterday the county’s housing market was returning to normal growth patterns following the boom that began in the late 1990s.

“I think the bloom is off the rose, but there is no doom and gloom,” said Alan Nevin, chief economist for the California Building Industry Association.

The fundamentals of the housing economy remain sound, said Louis A. Galuppo, director of USD’s Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate. “We may see a decline in sales but not prices.”

Despite “air leaking out of the tire,” there are no major economic triggers, such as massive job losses, to cause the housing market to crash, said Joe Anfuso, chief financial officer of Shea Homes San Diego.

Outlook 2006, Burnham-Moores’ sixth annual residential real estate conference, drew about 480 people to USD’s Jenny Craig Pavilion. Those in attendance for the early-morning session heard experts dismiss the possibility of a bursting real estate price bubble.

Despite rising interest rates, a growing for-sale inventory and a slowing sales pace, the county’s shortage of housing will prevent prices from dropping steeply, speakers asserted.

“It’s Economics 101,” said Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist for the California Association of Realtors. “It’s demand and supply.”

In figures released outside the conference yesterday by DataQuick Information Systems, the county’s median home price rose 6.4 percent in November, far less than the double-digit gains of April but strong by traditional standards.

Addressing the statewide economy, Appleton-Young forecast “a slight decline in home sales” for California in 2006. Many established homeowners have cashed out rising equity and now lack the funds to trade up to larger homes, she said. “We are going to see people staying in their homes longer.”

Another reason homeowners are staying put is Proposition 13, the landmark property-tax-cutting initiative. Passed in 1978, the measure limits tax increases on properties until they are sold. Many owners are reluctant to sell and give up their tax breaks, Appleton-Young said. If they buy a new home at a higher price, “they look at doubling and tripling their taxes.”

Several speakers at the conference addressed the use of new lending products that had enabled middle-wage consumers to attain financing for high-priced homes. Many “creative” mortgage loans have low, introductory payments that adjust upward with prevailing interest rates after several years. In general, they shift risk from the lender to the borrower.

Anfuso said fears that such loans would trigger defaults were misplaced. Many borrowers “are going up the wage scale” and will be able to handle rising payments, he said.

Michael Perry, chairman and chief executive of IndyMac Bankcorp, said he expected new federal guidelines to address such loans. Appleton-Young said some borrowers may find themselves overburdened by debt because of newer mortgage products.

“We may see a blip up in foreclosures and delinquencies,” she said.

During a panel discussion called “Has the Bubble Burst? What’s Next?” Alex Zikakis, president and founder of Capstone Advisors, said he didn’t see a strong presence of speculators in the local residential real estate market. Jill Morrow, president and chief operating officer of Coldwell Banker San Diego, said the local housing market was not driven by investors.

“We have a lot of diversity in our economy,” she said.

In her forecast, Appleton-Young predicted a 2 percent statewide decrease in single-family home resales next year. She anticipates a 10 percent statewide increase in the cost of a median-priced resale home.

Citing an affordability crisis, Appleton-Young said trends showed that only about 15 percent of California households would be able to afford a median-priced home, compared with about 50 percent of households nationally.

In the long run, California’s lack of affordability will lead more businesses and employees to consider moving out of state to areas where homeownership is more attainable, Perry said.

USD economist Alan Gin said the county’s overall economy would outperform the state and the rest of the nation in 2006. Gin said he was concerned that most of the jobs being created here offered modest salaries, however. He also cited rising interest rates and high gasoline prices as concerns for local consumers. Even so, the housing market will cool but not collapse, he predicted.

Appleton-Young called California real estate a market in transition. “I think we’re in for a soft landing,” she said.

———————–

[UTC renter]

thanks 😉

it was quite amusing how he turned my comment:
“well, here is a specific example of a huge drop — I gave example of the park place property that sold at 100K+ loss, and there are 60 more at: http://sandiegomarketmonitor.blogspot.com”
into:
“well, this is unique to downtown, and (complete non-sequitur) we expect 7% appreciation national appreciation, and perhaps 2% for san diego”

of course, it is pointless arguing with those people, but perhaps some poor soul out there will think twice about jumping into too-deep water

Somehow all this reminds me of this joke: “how can you tell a real-estate economist is lying? His lips are moving”.

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