[urbanrealtor]

My 2 bits:
Offer an agent a fixed amount to consult.

Make sure its someone who can address all the concerns you have that can be put in words (non-verbal terror is not really fixable).

Make sure they can talk about underlying economics and the relevant micro-market without sounding like a salesman douche.

Make it clear you will pay them whether or not a sale comes out of this.

That will keep the conversation honest and fair.
You might not like what you hear but it will be relatively less likely to get you screwed.

Good luck dude.

[urbanrealtor]

My 2 bits:
Offer an agent a fixed amount to consult.

Make sure its someone who can address all the concerns you have that can be put in words (non-verbal terror is not really fixable).

Make sure they can talk about underlying economics and the relevant micro-market without sounding like a salesman douche.

Make it clear you will pay them whether or not a sale comes out of this.

That will keep the conversation honest and fair.
You might not like what you hear but it will be relatively less likely to get you screwed.

Good luck dude.

[urbanrealtor]

[quote=CA renter]
It is so disturbing that Fed officials can only see inflation as the solution to our problems. Has nobody ever considered the fact that *deflation* might actually the the cheaper, more efficient, less-painful (to working people) solution?
[/quote]

Ponder that for a minute.
In a world with 4% interest and 2% inflation, the effective interest rate is 2%.
In a world with 4% interest and 5% deflation (which is fairly modest), the effective interest rate is 9%.
This makes leverage significantly more costly.
Considering that effectively all economic advancement since the 1700’s has been achieved using funds that had leverage as a significant component, deflation would impact economic advancement noticeably.
The same would be true of housing leverage.

In other words, this would do to business what home value deflation did to housing.

If the debts are all toxic and the the things they bought are always going to be way cheaper than the debts, far fewer people will borrow and lots more will start to default on existing loans.

The only people who would benefit would be those who have big savings accounts.

And we are not a country of savers.

[urbanrealtor]

[quote=CA renter]
It is so disturbing that Fed officials can only see inflation as the solution to our problems. Has nobody ever considered the fact that *deflation* might actually the the cheaper, more efficient, less-painful (to working people) solution?
[/quote]

Ponder that for a minute.
In a world with 4% interest and 2% inflation, the effective interest rate is 2%.
In a world with 4% interest and 5% deflation (which is fairly modest), the effective interest rate is 9%.
This makes leverage significantly more costly.
Considering that effectively all economic advancement since the 1700’s has been achieved using funds that had leverage as a significant component, deflation would impact economic advancement noticeably.
The same would be true of housing leverage.

In other words, this would do to business what home value deflation did to housing.

If the debts are all toxic and the the things they bought are always going to be way cheaper than the debts, far fewer people will borrow and lots more will start to default on existing loans.

The only people who would benefit would be those who have big savings accounts.

And we are not a country of savers.

[urbanrealtor]

[quote=CA renter]
It is so disturbing that Fed officials can only see inflation as the solution to our problems. Has nobody ever considered the fact that *deflation* might actually the the cheaper, more efficient, less-painful (to working people) solution?
[/quote]

Ponder that for a minute.
In a world with 4% interest and 2% inflation, the effective interest rate is 2%.
In a world with 4% interest and 5% deflation (which is fairly modest), the effective interest rate is 9%.
This makes leverage significantly more costly.
Considering that effectively all economic advancement since the 1700’s has been achieved using funds that had leverage as a significant component, deflation would impact economic advancement noticeably.
The same would be true of housing leverage.

In other words, this would do to business what home value deflation did to housing.

If the debts are all toxic and the the things they bought are always going to be way cheaper than the debts, far fewer people will borrow and lots more will start to default on existing loans.

The only people who would benefit would be those who have big savings accounts.

And we are not a country of savers.

[urbanrealtor]

[quote=CA renter]
It is so disturbing that Fed officials can only see inflation as the solution to our problems. Has nobody ever considered the fact that *deflation* might actually the the cheaper, more efficient, less-painful (to working people) solution?
[/quote]

Ponder that for a minute.
In a world with 4% interest and 2% inflation, the effective interest rate is 2%.
In a world with 4% interest and 5% deflation (which is fairly modest), the effective interest rate is 9%.
This makes leverage significantly more costly.
Considering that effectively all economic advancement since the 1700’s has been achieved using funds that had leverage as a significant component, deflation would impact economic advancement noticeably.
The same would be true of housing leverage.

In other words, this would do to business what home value deflation did to housing.

If the debts are all toxic and the the things they bought are always going to be way cheaper than the debts, far fewer people will borrow and lots more will start to default on existing loans.

The only people who would benefit would be those who have big savings accounts.

And we are not a country of savers.

[urbanrealtor]

[quote=CA renter]
It is so disturbing that Fed officials can only see inflation as the solution to our problems. Has nobody ever considered the fact that *deflation* might actually the the cheaper, more efficient, less-painful (to working people) solution?
[/quote]

Ponder that for a minute.
In a world with 4% interest and 2% inflation, the effective interest rate is 2%.
In a world with 4% interest and 5% deflation (which is fairly modest), the effective interest rate is 9%.
This makes leverage significantly more costly.
Considering that effectively all economic advancement since the 1700’s has been achieved using funds that had leverage as a significant component, deflation would impact economic advancement noticeably.
The same would be true of housing leverage.

In other words, this would do to business what home value deflation did to housing.

If the debts are all toxic and the the things they bought are always going to be way cheaper than the debts, far fewer people will borrow and lots more will start to default on existing loans.

The only people who would benefit would be those who have big savings accounts.

And we are not a country of savers.

[urbanrealtor]

[quote=Rich Toscano]The US in the 70s, for generic stagflation. (BTW if high inflation and low growth/employment never happen together, why is there a word to describe them happening together?)

Or, for an example of an inflation driven by a loss of confidence in the sovereign debt and currency, Iceland in 08-09.

I don’t know how to make an example gallop so I think I’m good.[/quote]

So example one is based upon a combination of cost push supply shocks and direct price controls.

Something to bear in mind when next our dealers cut off some vital resource (eg: iron, rare earth, oil).

Example two is a bit suspect because it required foreign-denominated debt to reach 6 times GDP.

For the US that would mean we would have to owe $86 Trillion dollars in RMB and Euros.

That would mean borrowing the sum equal to the total economy of China, Eurozone, and the US combined times two.

While I am sure there is a way to do that, this example really pushes the bounds of plausibility.

Rich, you have talked a lot about the supply-side component (eg: palettes of money onto street corners) to a coming inflationary event.

Do you see an example of this in the developed world in a relatively contemporary setting that we should look to?

[urbanrealtor]

[quote=Rich Toscano]The US in the 70s, for generic stagflation. (BTW if high inflation and low growth/employment never happen together, why is there a word to describe them happening together?)

Or, for an example of an inflation driven by a loss of confidence in the sovereign debt and currency, Iceland in 08-09.

I don’t know how to make an example gallop so I think I’m good.[/quote]

So example one is based upon a combination of cost push supply shocks and direct price controls.

Something to bear in mind when next our dealers cut off some vital resource (eg: iron, rare earth, oil).

Example two is a bit suspect because it required foreign-denominated debt to reach 6 times GDP.

For the US that would mean we would have to owe $86 Trillion dollars in RMB and Euros.

That would mean borrowing the sum equal to the total economy of China, Eurozone, and the US combined times two.

While I am sure there is a way to do that, this example really pushes the bounds of plausibility.

Rich, you have talked a lot about the supply-side component (eg: palettes of money onto street corners) to a coming inflationary event.

Do you see an example of this in the developed world in a relatively contemporary setting that we should look to?

[urbanrealtor]

[quote=Rich Toscano]The US in the 70s, for generic stagflation. (BTW if high inflation and low growth/employment never happen together, why is there a word to describe them happening together?)

Or, for an example of an inflation driven by a loss of confidence in the sovereign debt and currency, Iceland in 08-09.

I don’t know how to make an example gallop so I think I’m good.[/quote]

So example one is based upon a combination of cost push supply shocks and direct price controls.

Something to bear in mind when next our dealers cut off some vital resource (eg: iron, rare earth, oil).

Example two is a bit suspect because it required foreign-denominated debt to reach 6 times GDP.

For the US that would mean we would have to owe $86 Trillion dollars in RMB and Euros.

That would mean borrowing the sum equal to the total economy of China, Eurozone, and the US combined times two.

While I am sure there is a way to do that, this example really pushes the bounds of plausibility.

Rich, you have talked a lot about the supply-side component (eg: palettes of money onto street corners) to a coming inflationary event.

Do you see an example of this in the developed world in a relatively contemporary setting that we should look to?

[urbanrealtor]

[quote=Rich Toscano]The US in the 70s, for generic stagflation. (BTW if high inflation and low growth/employment never happen together, why is there a word to describe them happening together?)

Or, for an example of an inflation driven by a loss of confidence in the sovereign debt and currency, Iceland in 08-09.

I don’t know how to make an example gallop so I think I’m good.[/quote]

So example one is based upon a combination of cost push supply shocks and direct price controls.

Something to bear in mind when next our dealers cut off some vital resource (eg: iron, rare earth, oil).

Example two is a bit suspect because it required foreign-denominated debt to reach 6 times GDP.

For the US that would mean we would have to owe $86 Trillion dollars in RMB and Euros.

That would mean borrowing the sum equal to the total economy of China, Eurozone, and the US combined times two.

While I am sure there is a way to do that, this example really pushes the bounds of plausibility.

Rich, you have talked a lot about the supply-side component (eg: palettes of money onto street corners) to a coming inflationary event.

Do you see an example of this in the developed world in a relatively contemporary setting that we should look to?

[urbanrealtor]

[quote=Rich Toscano]The US in the 70s, for generic stagflation. (BTW if high inflation and low growth/employment never happen together, why is there a word to describe them happening together?)

Or, for an example of an inflation driven by a loss of confidence in the sovereign debt and currency, Iceland in 08-09.

I don’t know how to make an example gallop so I think I’m good.[/quote]

So example one is based upon a combination of cost push supply shocks and direct price controls.

Something to bear in mind when next our dealers cut off some vital resource (eg: iron, rare earth, oil).

Example two is a bit suspect because it required foreign-denominated debt to reach 6 times GDP.

For the US that would mean we would have to owe $86 Trillion dollars in RMB and Euros.

That would mean borrowing the sum equal to the total economy of China, Eurozone, and the US combined times two.

While I am sure there is a way to do that, this example really pushes the bounds of plausibility.

Rich, you have talked a lot about the supply-side component (eg: palettes of money onto street corners) to a coming inflationary event.

Do you see an example of this in the developed world in a relatively contemporary setting that we should look to?

[urbanrealtor]

[quote=sdrealtor]Good advice[/quote]
Dave, let me ask, what are the versions of this that you have seen?

[urbanrealtor]

[quote=sdrealtor]Good advice[/quote]
Dave, let me ask, what are the versions of this that you have seen?

[urbanrealtor]

[quote=sdrealtor]Good advice[/quote]
Dave, let me ask, what are the versions of this that you have seen?

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