[tlefort]

I came here and have come here and other simular sites over the last several years because I was calling BS on the prices in SD 5 years ago. Moved to Temecula in 03 and wanted to rent for a year to see if I liked the area enough to stay (I do and I did) but the prices got out of hand in 04-05 and this blog helped me realize I was not the only person in the world wondering what the hell was going on and when it all would end.

Since then I have come back to try to estimate where this is all leading to. I like economics, psycology and sociology. This site gives me a dose of all those things at a grass root level.

Plus I lke a break from the job once in a while…

[tlefort]

I came here and have come here and other simular sites over the last several years because I was calling BS on the prices in SD 5 years ago. Moved to Temecula in 03 and wanted to rent for a year to see if I liked the area enough to stay (I do and I did) but the prices got out of hand in 04-05 and this blog helped me realize I was not the only person in the world wondering what the hell was going on and when it all would end.

Since then I have come back to try to estimate where this is all leading to. I like economics, psycology and sociology. This site gives me a dose of all those things at a grass root level.

Plus I lke a break from the job once in a while…

[tlefort]

I came here and have come here and other simular sites over the last several years because I was calling BS on the prices in SD 5 years ago. Moved to Temecula in 03 and wanted to rent for a year to see if I liked the area enough to stay (I do and I did) but the prices got out of hand in 04-05 and this blog helped me realize I was not the only person in the world wondering what the hell was going on and when it all would end.

Since then I have come back to try to estimate where this is all leading to. I like economics, psycology and sociology. This site gives me a dose of all those things at a grass root level.

Plus I lke a break from the job once in a while…

[tlefort]

I came here and have come here and other simular sites over the last several years because I was calling BS on the prices in SD 5 years ago. Moved to Temecula in 03 and wanted to rent for a year to see if I liked the area enough to stay (I do and I did) but the prices got out of hand in 04-05 and this blog helped me realize I was not the only person in the world wondering what the hell was going on and when it all would end.

Since then I have come back to try to estimate where this is all leading to. I like economics, psycology and sociology. This site gives me a dose of all those things at a grass root level.

Plus I lke a break from the job once in a while…

[tlefort]

I came here and have come here and other simular sites over the last several years because I was calling BS on the prices in SD 5 years ago. Moved to Temecula in 03 and wanted to rent for a year to see if I liked the area enough to stay (I do and I did) but the prices got out of hand in 04-05 and this blog helped me realize I was not the only person in the world wondering what the hell was going on and when it all would end.

Since then I have come back to try to estimate where this is all leading to. I like economics, psycology and sociology. This site gives me a dose of all those things at a grass root level.

Plus I lke a break from the job once in a while…

[tlefort]

You are right. That is a very good argument. But to really understand the big picture there are a lot of factors to consider. Human psycology not being the least. Construction costs are dropping actually with the lower costs of lumber etc. Labor costs will go down as more unemployed construction workers take less pay just to have the work. Cities are lowering or limiting the permit costs. All these factors and many other factors of a slowing or crashing economy will contribute to possible lower prices in the future. It may not be “Logical” or make sense but neither did the fake prices on the way up. All I am saying is there is a real possibility of an over shoot on the down side.

Just looking at the straight numbers your argument for a bottom based on the Aguanga house seems to make sense. But the consumer is not always rational and as we have seen sometimes is completely irrational. Markets are driven by greed and fear. Right now fear has the upper hand and I just have a feeling we are in for worse times ahead.

I will also say as I said before, I am guessing. I do not know where the bottom is just as I did not know where the top was. I thought the market was insane in 2003. Look what happened in 04 and 05. So all I am saying is sometimes people do not act rational, in up markets and in falling markets.

[tlefort]

You are right. That is a very good argument. But to really understand the big picture there are a lot of factors to consider. Human psycology not being the least. Construction costs are dropping actually with the lower costs of lumber etc. Labor costs will go down as more unemployed construction workers take less pay just to have the work. Cities are lowering or limiting the permit costs. All these factors and many other factors of a slowing or crashing economy will contribute to possible lower prices in the future. It may not be “Logical” or make sense but neither did the fake prices on the way up. All I am saying is there is a real possibility of an over shoot on the down side.

Just looking at the straight numbers your argument for a bottom based on the Aguanga house seems to make sense. But the consumer is not always rational and as we have seen sometimes is completely irrational. Markets are driven by greed and fear. Right now fear has the upper hand and I just have a feeling we are in for worse times ahead.

I will also say as I said before, I am guessing. I do not know where the bottom is just as I did not know where the top was. I thought the market was insane in 2003. Look what happened in 04 and 05. So all I am saying is sometimes people do not act rational, in up markets and in falling markets.

[tlefort]

You are right. That is a very good argument. But to really understand the big picture there are a lot of factors to consider. Human psycology not being the least. Construction costs are dropping actually with the lower costs of lumber etc. Labor costs will go down as more unemployed construction workers take less pay just to have the work. Cities are lowering or limiting the permit costs. All these factors and many other factors of a slowing or crashing economy will contribute to possible lower prices in the future. It may not be “Logical” or make sense but neither did the fake prices on the way up. All I am saying is there is a real possibility of an over shoot on the down side.

Just looking at the straight numbers your argument for a bottom based on the Aguanga house seems to make sense. But the consumer is not always rational and as we have seen sometimes is completely irrational. Markets are driven by greed and fear. Right now fear has the upper hand and I just have a feeling we are in for worse times ahead.

I will also say as I said before, I am guessing. I do not know where the bottom is just as I did not know where the top was. I thought the market was insane in 2003. Look what happened in 04 and 05. So all I am saying is sometimes people do not act rational, in up markets and in falling markets.

[tlefort]

You are right. That is a very good argument. But to really understand the big picture there are a lot of factors to consider. Human psycology not being the least. Construction costs are dropping actually with the lower costs of lumber etc. Labor costs will go down as more unemployed construction workers take less pay just to have the work. Cities are lowering or limiting the permit costs. All these factors and many other factors of a slowing or crashing economy will contribute to possible lower prices in the future. It may not be “Logical” or make sense but neither did the fake prices on the way up. All I am saying is there is a real possibility of an over shoot on the down side.

Just looking at the straight numbers your argument for a bottom based on the Aguanga house seems to make sense. But the consumer is not always rational and as we have seen sometimes is completely irrational. Markets are driven by greed and fear. Right now fear has the upper hand and I just have a feeling we are in for worse times ahead.

I will also say as I said before, I am guessing. I do not know where the bottom is just as I did not know where the top was. I thought the market was insane in 2003. Look what happened in 04 and 05. So all I am saying is sometimes people do not act rational, in up markets and in falling markets.

[tlefort]

You are right. That is a very good argument. But to really understand the big picture there are a lot of factors to consider. Human psycology not being the least. Construction costs are dropping actually with the lower costs of lumber etc. Labor costs will go down as more unemployed construction workers take less pay just to have the work. Cities are lowering or limiting the permit costs. All these factors and many other factors of a slowing or crashing economy will contribute to possible lower prices in the future. It may not be “Logical” or make sense but neither did the fake prices on the way up. All I am saying is there is a real possibility of an over shoot on the down side.

Just looking at the straight numbers your argument for a bottom based on the Aguanga house seems to make sense. But the consumer is not always rational and as we have seen sometimes is completely irrational. Markets are driven by greed and fear. Right now fear has the upper hand and I just have a feeling we are in for worse times ahead.

I will also say as I said before, I am guessing. I do not know where the bottom is just as I did not know where the top was. I thought the market was insane in 2003. Look what happened in 04 and 05. So all I am saying is sometimes people do not act rational, in up markets and in falling markets.

[tlefort]

This subject always makes the hair on my back stand on its end (I am a hairy fellow 🙂 )

When a relator hits me with the comment ” You will save so much on taxes because you can write off your interest on a mortage”, I have to educate them on a few facts.

As a renter one does not pay property tax. So say a 300 k home and aprox 3500 in property tax.

Say a household income of 75k, three kids and a federal tax liability of ~ 3500. If the renter buys a home he gets to write off about 20k a year in interest (depending on the size of the mortgage, interest rate etc). Which might bring his fed tax liability down to close to 0. But he has to pay property tax now, so he is back where he started at a 3,500$ tax laibility, just now it is in the form of property tax.

Also, don’t forget about the 10k standard decuction given to the renter. In this scenario there would only be an additional 10k write off.

everyone’s tax situation is different. You have to actually owe taxes before you can save on them via write offs.

I just hate relators just flippently quoteing how much money you can be saving by writing off a mortgage. Talk to a CPA first and work out the math. Buying and house (and a mortgage) is not always the tax savings it appears.

[tlefort]

This subject always makes the hair on my back stand on its end (I am a hairy fellow 🙂 )

When a relator hits me with the comment ” You will save so much on taxes because you can write off your interest on a mortage”, I have to educate them on a few facts.

As a renter one does not pay property tax. So say a 300 k home and aprox 3500 in property tax.

Say a household income of 75k, three kids and a federal tax liability of ~ 3500. If the renter buys a home he gets to write off about 20k a year in interest (depending on the size of the mortgage, interest rate etc). Which might bring his fed tax liability down to close to 0. But he has to pay property tax now, so he is back where he started at a 3,500$ tax laibility, just now it is in the form of property tax.

Also, don’t forget about the 10k standard decuction given to the renter. In this scenario there would only be an additional 10k write off.

everyone’s tax situation is different. You have to actually owe taxes before you can save on them via write offs.

I just hate relators just flippently quoteing how much money you can be saving by writing off a mortgage. Talk to a CPA first and work out the math. Buying and house (and a mortgage) is not always the tax savings it appears.

[tlefort]

This subject always makes the hair on my back stand on its end (I am a hairy fellow 🙂 )

When a relator hits me with the comment ” You will save so much on taxes because you can write off your interest on a mortage”, I have to educate them on a few facts.

As a renter one does not pay property tax. So say a 300 k home and aprox 3500 in property tax.

Say a household income of 75k, three kids and a federal tax liability of ~ 3500. If the renter buys a home he gets to write off about 20k a year in interest (depending on the size of the mortgage, interest rate etc). Which might bring his fed tax liability down to close to 0. But he has to pay property tax now, so he is back where he started at a 3,500$ tax laibility, just now it is in the form of property tax.

Also, don’t forget about the 10k standard decuction given to the renter. In this scenario there would only be an additional 10k write off.

everyone’s tax situation is different. You have to actually owe taxes before you can save on them via write offs.

I just hate relators just flippently quoteing how much money you can be saving by writing off a mortgage. Talk to a CPA first and work out the math. Buying and house (and a mortgage) is not always the tax savings it appears.

[tlefort]

This subject always makes the hair on my back stand on its end (I am a hairy fellow 🙂 )

When a relator hits me with the comment ” You will save so much on taxes because you can write off your interest on a mortage”, I have to educate them on a few facts.

As a renter one does not pay property tax. So say a 300 k home and aprox 3500 in property tax.

Say a household income of 75k, three kids and a federal tax liability of ~ 3500. If the renter buys a home he gets to write off about 20k a year in interest (depending on the size of the mortgage, interest rate etc). Which might bring his fed tax liability down to close to 0. But he has to pay property tax now, so he is back where he started at a 3,500$ tax laibility, just now it is in the form of property tax.

Also, don’t forget about the 10k standard decuction given to the renter. In this scenario there would only be an additional 10k write off.

everyone’s tax situation is different. You have to actually owe taxes before you can save on them via write offs.

I just hate relators just flippently quoteing how much money you can be saving by writing off a mortgage. Talk to a CPA first and work out the math. Buying and house (and a mortgage) is not always the tax savings it appears.

[tlefort]

This subject always makes the hair on my back stand on its end (I am a hairy fellow 🙂 )

When a relator hits me with the comment ” You will save so much on taxes because you can write off your interest on a mortage”, I have to educate them on a few facts.

As a renter one does not pay property tax. So say a 300 k home and aprox 3500 in property tax.

Say a household income of 75k, three kids and a federal tax liability of ~ 3500. If the renter buys a home he gets to write off about 20k a year in interest (depending on the size of the mortgage, interest rate etc). Which might bring his fed tax liability down to close to 0. But he has to pay property tax now, so he is back where he started at a 3,500$ tax laibility, just now it is in the form of property tax.

Also, don’t forget about the 10k standard decuction given to the renter. In this scenario there would only be an additional 10k write off.

everyone’s tax situation is different. You have to actually owe taxes before you can save on them via write offs.

I just hate relators just flippently quoteing how much money you can be saving by writing off a mortgage. Talk to a CPA first and work out the math. Buying and house (and a mortgage) is not always the tax savings it appears.

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