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temeculaguy
Participant[quote=Cabal]My 2 cents…
HOUSING – Low and mid range SD homes in desirable areas with good schools will enjoy continued and steady appreciation. Entry level high end homes (defined as 800K to 1.3M) will fully stabilize by 3Q and remain flat. High end homes (above 1.5M) will continue to decline. The tsunami of foreclosures will not materialize. Fully indexed rates on resets and recasts will average 3.5% for the year.
JOBS – Unemployment rate for hourly workers will slightly worsen, while white collar jobs stabilize. Aggregate unemployment will increase negligibly hovering near 10%.
OIL – Demand will exceed worldwide capacity levels near 88M barrels/day. Price will fluctuate between $65 to $85 and trend towards $85 by end of year. TPTB will enforce this range to ensure continued recovery.
GOLD – Excellent electrical conductance and corrosion properties and ideal material for fine jewelry. Beyond that, it has no intrinsic value. Judging by the number of infomercials, we are well into the speculative phase. Look for the big crash once an inkling of confidence is established in the global monetary system. It’s just a matter of time with smart money leaving the flock as early as 2Q. You might as well buy Dutch tulips.
STOCK MARKET – The market will rebound to 9/2008 levels with the SP500 & DOW zigzagging ,but trending towards a peak of 1250 and 11300, respectively. Yes, it’s overvalued, but what does that have to do with anything.
INTEREST RATES – Federal funds rate will remain near zero for the year, perhaps increasing to .5% by year end as fiscal stimulus cascades into the economy. Regardless of M3 increase, inflation will remain non-existent. Still spooked, consumers and businesses will remain overly cautious applying excess money to pay down debt and cleanse balance sheets , and not slosh around in the economy.
DOLLAR – Will remain the preeminent reserve currency. Let’s review – oil is traded in dollars, dollar is decoupled from gold, we can print dollars to our hearts content, China and Japan own so much US treasuries they can’t divest without collapsing their investment and exports, and if push come to shove we have the baddest arm forces on earth. It’s a beautiful thing.
NEXT BUBBLE – I’ve been looking for the next emerging bubble to invest with a 5 year peak horizon for harvest. No clear winner so far. Clean energy, social networking enterprises, any suggestions ?
Our union continues to remain strong. Anytime we approach critical mass, the good people of this nation become engaged and quickly swing the pendulum back restoring order to the universe, as evidenced by the Massachusetts election result. So to all the Piggs living in underground bunkers, you can ease off on all the doomsday posts, come out and enjoy the sun.[/quote]
Instead of making my own predictions can I just jump on Cabal’s bandwagon? I agree with almost all of it, the only deviation and addition is that I think unemployment will tick down as the year progresses and interest rates will tick up toward the end of the year, these things will go hand in hand, nothing drastic, it will seem….boring. We will be in the meat of the “flat part.”
When the collective sigh of relief comes, be it 2011 or 2012 and the greatest economic contraction of our lifetime is over, we will be better for it. Most of the people who were adults during the great depression are no longer with us, they were better because of it and we will be better because of our lesson. When we are gone, this will happen again, is it too early for me to make my prediction of the great depression of 2060?
Participant[quote=Cabal]My 2 cents…
HOUSING – Low and mid range SD homes in desirable areas with good schools will enjoy continued and steady appreciation. Entry level high end homes (defined as 800K to 1.3M) will fully stabilize by 3Q and remain flat. High end homes (above 1.5M) will continue to decline. The tsunami of foreclosures will not materialize. Fully indexed rates on resets and recasts will average 3.5% for the year.
JOBS – Unemployment rate for hourly workers will slightly worsen, while white collar jobs stabilize. Aggregate unemployment will increase negligibly hovering near 10%.
OIL – Demand will exceed worldwide capacity levels near 88M barrels/day. Price will fluctuate between $65 to $85 and trend towards $85 by end of year. TPTB will enforce this range to ensure continued recovery.
GOLD – Excellent electrical conductance and corrosion properties and ideal material for fine jewelry. Beyond that, it has no intrinsic value. Judging by the number of infomercials, we are well into the speculative phase. Look for the big crash once an inkling of confidence is established in the global monetary system. It’s just a matter of time with smart money leaving the flock as early as 2Q. You might as well buy Dutch tulips.
STOCK MARKET – The market will rebound to 9/2008 levels with the SP500 & DOW zigzagging ,but trending towards a peak of 1250 and 11300, respectively. Yes, it’s overvalued, but what does that have to do with anything.
INTEREST RATES – Federal funds rate will remain near zero for the year, perhaps increasing to .5% by year end as fiscal stimulus cascades into the economy. Regardless of M3 increase, inflation will remain non-existent. Still spooked, consumers and businesses will remain overly cautious applying excess money to pay down debt and cleanse balance sheets , and not slosh around in the economy.
DOLLAR – Will remain the preeminent reserve currency. Let’s review – oil is traded in dollars, dollar is decoupled from gold, we can print dollars to our hearts content, China and Japan own so much US treasuries they can’t divest without collapsing their investment and exports, and if push come to shove we have the baddest arm forces on earth. It’s a beautiful thing.
NEXT BUBBLE – I’ve been looking for the next emerging bubble to invest with a 5 year peak horizon for harvest. No clear winner so far. Clean energy, social networking enterprises, any suggestions ?
Our union continues to remain strong. Anytime we approach critical mass, the good people of this nation become engaged and quickly swing the pendulum back restoring order to the universe, as evidenced by the Massachusetts election result. So to all the Piggs living in underground bunkers, you can ease off on all the doomsday posts, come out and enjoy the sun.[/quote]
Instead of making my own predictions can I just jump on Cabal’s bandwagon? I agree with almost all of it, the only deviation and addition is that I think unemployment will tick down as the year progresses and interest rates will tick up toward the end of the year, these things will go hand in hand, nothing drastic, it will seem….boring. We will be in the meat of the “flat part.”
When the collective sigh of relief comes, be it 2011 or 2012 and the greatest economic contraction of our lifetime is over, we will be better for it. Most of the people who were adults during the great depression are no longer with us, they were better because of it and we will be better because of our lesson. When we are gone, this will happen again, is it too early for me to make my prediction of the great depression of 2060?
Participant[quote=Cabal]My 2 cents…
HOUSING – Low and mid range SD homes in desirable areas with good schools will enjoy continued and steady appreciation. Entry level high end homes (defined as 800K to 1.3M) will fully stabilize by 3Q and remain flat. High end homes (above 1.5M) will continue to decline. The tsunami of foreclosures will not materialize. Fully indexed rates on resets and recasts will average 3.5% for the year.
JOBS – Unemployment rate for hourly workers will slightly worsen, while white collar jobs stabilize. Aggregate unemployment will increase negligibly hovering near 10%.
OIL – Demand will exceed worldwide capacity levels near 88M barrels/day. Price will fluctuate between $65 to $85 and trend towards $85 by end of year. TPTB will enforce this range to ensure continued recovery.
GOLD – Excellent electrical conductance and corrosion properties and ideal material for fine jewelry. Beyond that, it has no intrinsic value. Judging by the number of infomercials, we are well into the speculative phase. Look for the big crash once an inkling of confidence is established in the global monetary system. It’s just a matter of time with smart money leaving the flock as early as 2Q. You might as well buy Dutch tulips.
STOCK MARKET – The market will rebound to 9/2008 levels with the SP500 & DOW zigzagging ,but trending towards a peak of 1250 and 11300, respectively. Yes, it’s overvalued, but what does that have to do with anything.
INTEREST RATES – Federal funds rate will remain near zero for the year, perhaps increasing to .5% by year end as fiscal stimulus cascades into the economy. Regardless of M3 increase, inflation will remain non-existent. Still spooked, consumers and businesses will remain overly cautious applying excess money to pay down debt and cleanse balance sheets , and not slosh around in the economy.
DOLLAR – Will remain the preeminent reserve currency. Let’s review – oil is traded in dollars, dollar is decoupled from gold, we can print dollars to our hearts content, China and Japan own so much US treasuries they can’t divest without collapsing their investment and exports, and if push come to shove we have the baddest arm forces on earth. It’s a beautiful thing.
NEXT BUBBLE – I’ve been looking for the next emerging bubble to invest with a 5 year peak horizon for harvest. No clear winner so far. Clean energy, social networking enterprises, any suggestions ?
Our union continues to remain strong. Anytime we approach critical mass, the good people of this nation become engaged and quickly swing the pendulum back restoring order to the universe, as evidenced by the Massachusetts election result. So to all the Piggs living in underground bunkers, you can ease off on all the doomsday posts, come out and enjoy the sun.[/quote]
Instead of making my own predictions can I just jump on Cabal’s bandwagon? I agree with almost all of it, the only deviation and addition is that I think unemployment will tick down as the year progresses and interest rates will tick up toward the end of the year, these things will go hand in hand, nothing drastic, it will seem….boring. We will be in the meat of the “flat part.”
When the collective sigh of relief comes, be it 2011 or 2012 and the greatest economic contraction of our lifetime is over, we will be better for it. Most of the people who were adults during the great depression are no longer with us, they were better because of it and we will be better because of our lesson. When we are gone, this will happen again, is it too early for me to make my prediction of the great depression of 2060?
Participant[quote=scaredycat]I won’t skydive. too risky.[/quote]
That is the point!!!! The odds are in favor of you surviving but the odds of you being crippled with fear for the rest of your life are 100% if you don’t. You don’t have to do it regularly, just do it once.
Most great people can point to a pivotal point in their life where they overcame fear or overcame insurmountable odds, skydiving is relatively safe but will create a scenario for you to man up.
I did it a number of times, I’m still here, I consider it medicine for certain ailments. Okay, story time. A little more than 20 years ago I’m hanging around my fraternity house and someone suggests it. I succumbed to suggestions of vegas trips, Mexico jaunts, nude runs, you name it, I usually said “I’m in.” But I was scared to skydive. I wasn’t an entirely confident young man, still strugled with talking to people sometimes, especially women. So I go along, maybe 4 of us went the first time, we weren’t the “facemen” of the house, probably could be considered the dorkier guys. We survived, we walked into the party that night and we were like rock stars. We didn’t even mention it but people noticed a glow about us. Not one of acted shy, not one of us woke up alone the next morning. Once the statistical anamoly was revealed, others wanted to go on the morning of the next big party, and even though the group that next time was somewhere around 8-10, the same results occurred. It cost about $100 back then so it was reserved for special occasions, maybe it was all in our heads, but it worked and it’s stuck with me more than 20 years later, in more ways than just having the gumption to hit on the hot chick at the party.
Maybe it’s money, maybe it’s rejection, maybe it’s failure, but whatever you afraid of, cheating death for a few minutes will give you a new perspective, make you see that no matter what, you made it, the rest is just gravy. You could always survive a heart attack, fight in a war, survive a P.O.W camp, complete an iron man or a marathon, save a life, there are lots of things you can do, but that is the one I know of where you can make an appointment and be home for dinner.
Participant[quote=scaredycat]I won’t skydive. too risky.[/quote]
That is the point!!!! The odds are in favor of you surviving but the odds of you being crippled with fear for the rest of your life are 100% if you don’t. You don’t have to do it regularly, just do it once.
Most great people can point to a pivotal point in their life where they overcame fear or overcame insurmountable odds, skydiving is relatively safe but will create a scenario for you to man up.
I did it a number of times, I’m still here, I consider it medicine for certain ailments. Okay, story time. A little more than 20 years ago I’m hanging around my fraternity house and someone suggests it. I succumbed to suggestions of vegas trips, Mexico jaunts, nude runs, you name it, I usually said “I’m in.” But I was scared to skydive. I wasn’t an entirely confident young man, still strugled with talking to people sometimes, especially women. So I go along, maybe 4 of us went the first time, we weren’t the “facemen” of the house, probably could be considered the dorkier guys. We survived, we walked into the party that night and we were like rock stars. We didn’t even mention it but people noticed a glow about us. Not one of acted shy, not one of us woke up alone the next morning. Once the statistical anamoly was revealed, others wanted to go on the morning of the next big party, and even though the group that next time was somewhere around 8-10, the same results occurred. It cost about $100 back then so it was reserved for special occasions, maybe it was all in our heads, but it worked and it’s stuck with me more than 20 years later, in more ways than just having the gumption to hit on the hot chick at the party.
Maybe it’s money, maybe it’s rejection, maybe it’s failure, but whatever you afraid of, cheating death for a few minutes will give you a new perspective, make you see that no matter what, you made it, the rest is just gravy. You could always survive a heart attack, fight in a war, survive a P.O.W camp, complete an iron man or a marathon, save a life, there are lots of things you can do, but that is the one I know of where you can make an appointment and be home for dinner.
Participant[quote=scaredycat]I won’t skydive. too risky.[/quote]
That is the point!!!! The odds are in favor of you surviving but the odds of you being crippled with fear for the rest of your life are 100% if you don’t. You don’t have to do it regularly, just do it once.
Most great people can point to a pivotal point in their life where they overcame fear or overcame insurmountable odds, skydiving is relatively safe but will create a scenario for you to man up.
I did it a number of times, I’m still here, I consider it medicine for certain ailments. Okay, story time. A little more than 20 years ago I’m hanging around my fraternity house and someone suggests it. I succumbed to suggestions of vegas trips, Mexico jaunts, nude runs, you name it, I usually said “I’m in.” But I was scared to skydive. I wasn’t an entirely confident young man, still strugled with talking to people sometimes, especially women. So I go along, maybe 4 of us went the first time, we weren’t the “facemen” of the house, probably could be considered the dorkier guys. We survived, we walked into the party that night and we were like rock stars. We didn’t even mention it but people noticed a glow about us. Not one of acted shy, not one of us woke up alone the next morning. Once the statistical anamoly was revealed, others wanted to go on the morning of the next big party, and even though the group that next time was somewhere around 8-10, the same results occurred. It cost about $100 back then so it was reserved for special occasions, maybe it was all in our heads, but it worked and it’s stuck with me more than 20 years later, in more ways than just having the gumption to hit on the hot chick at the party.
Maybe it’s money, maybe it’s rejection, maybe it’s failure, but whatever you afraid of, cheating death for a few minutes will give you a new perspective, make you see that no matter what, you made it, the rest is just gravy. You could always survive a heart attack, fight in a war, survive a P.O.W camp, complete an iron man or a marathon, save a life, there are lots of things you can do, but that is the one I know of where you can make an appointment and be home for dinner.
Participant[quote=scaredycat]I won’t skydive. too risky.[/quote]
That is the point!!!! The odds are in favor of you surviving but the odds of you being crippled with fear for the rest of your life are 100% if you don’t. You don’t have to do it regularly, just do it once.
Most great people can point to a pivotal point in their life where they overcame fear or overcame insurmountable odds, skydiving is relatively safe but will create a scenario for you to man up.
I did it a number of times, I’m still here, I consider it medicine for certain ailments. Okay, story time. A little more than 20 years ago I’m hanging around my fraternity house and someone suggests it. I succumbed to suggestions of vegas trips, Mexico jaunts, nude runs, you name it, I usually said “I’m in.” But I was scared to skydive. I wasn’t an entirely confident young man, still strugled with talking to people sometimes, especially women. So I go along, maybe 4 of us went the first time, we weren’t the “facemen” of the house, probably could be considered the dorkier guys. We survived, we walked into the party that night and we were like rock stars. We didn’t even mention it but people noticed a glow about us. Not one of acted shy, not one of us woke up alone the next morning. Once the statistical anamoly was revealed, others wanted to go on the morning of the next big party, and even though the group that next time was somewhere around 8-10, the same results occurred. It cost about $100 back then so it was reserved for special occasions, maybe it was all in our heads, but it worked and it’s stuck with me more than 20 years later, in more ways than just having the gumption to hit on the hot chick at the party.
Maybe it’s money, maybe it’s rejection, maybe it’s failure, but whatever you afraid of, cheating death for a few minutes will give you a new perspective, make you see that no matter what, you made it, the rest is just gravy. You could always survive a heart attack, fight in a war, survive a P.O.W camp, complete an iron man or a marathon, save a life, there are lots of things you can do, but that is the one I know of where you can make an appointment and be home for dinner.
Participant[quote=scaredycat]I won’t skydive. too risky.[/quote]
That is the point!!!! The odds are in favor of you surviving but the odds of you being crippled with fear for the rest of your life are 100% if you don’t. You don’t have to do it regularly, just do it once.
Most great people can point to a pivotal point in their life where they overcame fear or overcame insurmountable odds, skydiving is relatively safe but will create a scenario for you to man up.
I did it a number of times, I’m still here, I consider it medicine for certain ailments. Okay, story time. A little more than 20 years ago I’m hanging around my fraternity house and someone suggests it. I succumbed to suggestions of vegas trips, Mexico jaunts, nude runs, you name it, I usually said “I’m in.” But I was scared to skydive. I wasn’t an entirely confident young man, still strugled with talking to people sometimes, especially women. So I go along, maybe 4 of us went the first time, we weren’t the “facemen” of the house, probably could be considered the dorkier guys. We survived, we walked into the party that night and we were like rock stars. We didn’t even mention it but people noticed a glow about us. Not one of acted shy, not one of us woke up alone the next morning. Once the statistical anamoly was revealed, others wanted to go on the morning of the next big party, and even though the group that next time was somewhere around 8-10, the same results occurred. It cost about $100 back then so it was reserved for special occasions, maybe it was all in our heads, but it worked and it’s stuck with me more than 20 years later, in more ways than just having the gumption to hit on the hot chick at the party.
Maybe it’s money, maybe it’s rejection, maybe it’s failure, but whatever you afraid of, cheating death for a few minutes will give you a new perspective, make you see that no matter what, you made it, the rest is just gravy. You could always survive a heart attack, fight in a war, survive a P.O.W camp, complete an iron man or a marathon, save a life, there are lots of things you can do, but that is the one I know of where you can make an appointment and be home for dinner.
ParticipantI like the look and the shade of foxtail palms. Instead of millions of little seeds, it has fruit. Still a pain but probably not too bad.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wodyetia
The two places that grow them happen to be nearby, one in jamul and one in deluz.
They are more expensive but require no trimming. I think I am going with them when I re-do the yards.
But Aecitia knows more about trees than I do, she probably has a foxtail. I was going to ask her when it came time to pick trees.ParticipantI like the look and the shade of foxtail palms. Instead of millions of little seeds, it has fruit. Still a pain but probably not too bad.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wodyetia
The two places that grow them happen to be nearby, one in jamul and one in deluz.
They are more expensive but require no trimming. I think I am going with them when I re-do the yards.
But Aecitia knows more about trees than I do, she probably has a foxtail. I was going to ask her when it came time to pick trees.ParticipantI like the look and the shade of foxtail palms. Instead of millions of little seeds, it has fruit. Still a pain but probably not too bad.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wodyetia
The two places that grow them happen to be nearby, one in jamul and one in deluz.
They are more expensive but require no trimming. I think I am going with them when I re-do the yards.
But Aecitia knows more about trees than I do, she probably has a foxtail. I was going to ask her when it came time to pick trees.ParticipantI like the look and the shade of foxtail palms. Instead of millions of little seeds, it has fruit. Still a pain but probably not too bad.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wodyetia
The two places that grow them happen to be nearby, one in jamul and one in deluz.
They are more expensive but require no trimming. I think I am going with them when I re-do the yards.
But Aecitia knows more about trees than I do, she probably has a foxtail. I was going to ask her when it came time to pick trees.ParticipantI like the look and the shade of foxtail palms. Instead of millions of little seeds, it has fruit. Still a pain but probably not too bad.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wodyetia
The two places that grow them happen to be nearby, one in jamul and one in deluz.
They are more expensive but require no trimming. I think I am going with them when I re-do the yards.
But Aecitia knows more about trees than I do, she probably has a foxtail. I was going to ask her when it came time to pick trees.ParticipantScardey, I used to think you needed medication but now I think a holistic approach would be better.
Let’s face it, caution is good, fear gets in the way. You need a life event that will demote you to “caution cat.” Your fear of real estate is just one of many things you are afraid of. In reality, you already rent in the Temecula Valley, so half off is child’s play up here, most of the people you are talking to would love to have 50% off peak and homes equal to or less than rent. It isn’t a matter of you relocating here, you already rent here, not buying out of fear is silly, you are losing money renting and this window will close soon if it hasn’t already. They are in a different boat, you use their feelings of 10% or 20% below peak and their frustrations with SD to make you not feel afraid, but their fear is rational, yours isn’t.
So here is what I suggest you do before you end up like Kevin Spacey’s Character in American Beauty. Just go skydiving. No Tandem Jumps, just a good old school jump out of an airplane by yourself with a rip cord that will pull your shute because you will more than likely black out from the fear. It will feel like the longest flight you ever took, nobody will push you, you will have to overcome your fear and jump out of a perfectly good airplane. When you land safely on the ground, you will never look at life the same way, it’s like getting HD tv, or high speed internet, there’s no turning back once you’ve mastered your fear. Maybe you still won’t buy a house or the hundred other things you are afraid of, but at least it wont be out of fear, it can be judgment at that point. You’ll sleep better too.
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