[temeculaguy]

Typo above, both properties were last sold 03/05 not 03/06, sorry.

[temeculaguy]

They will take hit’s and lose some money but this is one of the smartest homebuilders out there. They will do what they always do and break ranks, give away all the options, lower prices and get out from under their inventory much to the dismay of the other builders. They will also continue to force contracters to take a bite of the S**T sandwich. Homebuilders stocks are doing nothing but tanking this year but in a few years after the bubble plays out, this is one company I’d consider buying stock in.

I visited a Lennar development a few weeks ago and wrote about it another thread. They were nicer, bigger, cheaper than their competition and had virtually no options other that flooring. A visit to three other builders nearby revealed some antimosity towards Lennar’s aggresiveness, one salesperson pointing out that lennar was lowering prices in each phase which she felt was a diservice to earlier phase buyers and the market overall. What a bunch of crap, they want to survive through the down cycle and being realistic is the only way.

[temeculaguy]

They will take hit’s and lose some money but this is one of the smartest homebuilders out there. They will do what they always do and break ranks, give away all the options, lower prices and get out from under their inventory much to the dismay of the other builders. They will also continue to force contracters to take a bite of the S**T sandwich. Homebuilders stocks are doing nothing but tanking this year but in a few years after the bubble plays out, this is one company I’d consider buying stock in.

I visited a Lennar development a few weeks ago and wrote about it another thread. They were nicer, bigger, cheaper than their competition and had virtually no options other that flooring. A visit to three other builders nearby revealed some antimosity towards Lennar’s aggresiveness, one salesperson pointing out that lennar was lowering prices in each phase which she felt was a diservice to earlier phase buyers and the market overall. What a bunch of crap, they want to survive through the down cycle and being realistic is the only way.

[temeculaguy]

I know you deduct the car insurance but it is too high, shop around, try Wawanesa, two cars of about 30k each and two drivers should be around 30-50% less.

I know tithing has become the thing everyone has jumped on first and you gave a cogent explanation, if it makes you feel good do it. But to rationalize it with biblical references while essentially stealing cable and internet seems like a bit of selective morality, taking from one institution and giving to another. Sorry if that sounded like an insult, it isn’t meant to be, just an observation.

I have to agree with the other posters about San Diego and living on one income. It is noble and valuable but it somewhat unrealistic here without larger sacrifices. I suggest you encourage your spouse to pursue a teaching degree or some vocation where she can earn income while the kids are in school once they are. One spouse doesn’t have to work full time or out of the home to supplement the family income. I don’t see how 90k can do anything other than tread water in RB but I wish you luck. You wan’t to live in an a high priced area, have a stay at home wife, give generously to charity, it’s a cake and eat it too scenario or better yet an appetite for a steak on a hot dog budget, something has to give.

[temeculaguy]

I know you deduct the car insurance but it is too high, shop around, try Wawanesa, two cars of about 30k each and two drivers should be around 30-50% less.

I know tithing has become the thing everyone has jumped on first and you gave a cogent explanation, if it makes you feel good do it. But to rationalize it with biblical references while essentially stealing cable and internet seems like a bit of selective morality, taking from one institution and giving to another. Sorry if that sounded like an insult, it isn’t meant to be, just an observation.

I have to agree with the other posters about San Diego and living on one income. It is noble and valuable but it somewhat unrealistic here without larger sacrifices. I suggest you encourage your spouse to pursue a teaching degree or some vocation where she can earn income while the kids are in school once they are. One spouse doesn’t have to work full time or out of the home to supplement the family income. I don’t see how 90k can do anything other than tread water in RB but I wish you luck. You wan’t to live in an a high priced area, have a stay at home wife, give generously to charity, it’s a cake and eat it too scenario or better yet an appetite for a steak on a hot dog budget, something has to give.

[temeculaguy]

I don’t need a wife and a realtor will cost you less and cause you less headache.

You can always use a realtor and negotiate a smaller commission if you don’t need very much of their time. If I have already shopped and picked the house I’ll use a family friend and negotiate a price for them just to negotiate the contract and finalize the paperwork, it takes them a few hours and they usually end up paying for themselves and then some in savings.

People don’t need a stock broker, some prefer it, others do it themselves. It is all what you feel comfortable with, for piggintonians, this is a hobby of sorts but the rest of the world is probably better off using one.

Now for selling, I always use one, I have a job and showing my house isn’t it.

[temeculaguy]

I don’t need a wife and a realtor will cost you less and cause you less headache.

You can always use a realtor and negotiate a smaller commission if you don’t need very much of their time. If I have already shopped and picked the house I’ll use a family friend and negotiate a price for them just to negotiate the contract and finalize the paperwork, it takes them a few hours and they usually end up paying for themselves and then some in savings.

People don’t need a stock broker, some prefer it, others do it themselves. It is all what you feel comfortable with, for piggintonians, this is a hobby of sorts but the rest of the world is probably better off using one.

Now for selling, I always use one, I have a job and showing my house isn’t it.

[temeculaguy]

Housingfreefall, excellent post.

[temeculaguy]

Housingfreefall, excellent post.

[temeculaguy]

25% decline from today for new, probably 30-35% for resale since the new construction has already been discounted more in my area, this would represent a 50% drop from peak overall for both. Specifically I am looking at a 2100 sq ft new detached alley home that is list priced at 341k today with granite,ss appliances, etc. Comparable style resales are about 370-400k with an occasional thrashed repo lower. If that gets between 250 and 300 then I will be inclined to pull the trigger. My reasons are not about timing the market but about fundamentals. Rent today would be 1700-2000 for the same property, the loan would be only 2x my income. With 50k down a 250k 30 yr fixed mortgage it is about $1550 P&I. Taxes, insurance and hoa are roughly cancelled out by the income tax deduction, so then it makes sense to me. Of course it would be nice to be closer to the 250 than the 300 but that is where it gets tempting.

[temeculaguy]

25% decline from today for new, probably 30-35% for resale since the new construction has already been discounted more in my area, this would represent a 50% drop from peak overall for both. Specifically I am looking at a 2100 sq ft new detached alley home that is list priced at 341k today with granite,ss appliances, etc. Comparable style resales are about 370-400k with an occasional thrashed repo lower. If that gets between 250 and 300 then I will be inclined to pull the trigger. My reasons are not about timing the market but about fundamentals. Rent today would be 1700-2000 for the same property, the loan would be only 2x my income. With 50k down a 250k 30 yr fixed mortgage it is about $1550 P&I. Taxes, insurance and hoa are roughly cancelled out by the income tax deduction, so then it makes sense to me. Of course it would be nice to be closer to the 250 than the 300 but that is where it gets tempting.

[temeculaguy]

Bugs, I like the theory that information availability will flatten the cycles in the future, it has merit and I have never heard or read anyone bring it up. Past cycles have always come when the memory of the last has faded or a new demographic who missed the last one comes into power, it has always started again. Sure they know of the ups and down of the past but they have very few facts about it. You make a valid point as I remember being a loser in the downturn that started in 1992 and a winner in the upswing that started in 1998, none of it was based on facts available to me, just advice from people and my limited research. If the internet was what it is today in 1992 I may have not purchased and in 1998, I would have not sold a rental property. It can be chalked up to hindsight but to be honest there was no easy data for people like me who are not in the real estate industry. The information available today changes everything, or does it?

You really need to write a book bugs, I’m thinking of titles, porky pigginton and bugs bunny or the ACME anvil company is the internet and it flattens the Wile E. real esate bubbles, these are still in the rough draft phase of course.

[temeculaguy]

Bugs, I like the theory that information availability will flatten the cycles in the future, it has merit and I have never heard or read anyone bring it up. Past cycles have always come when the memory of the last has faded or a new demographic who missed the last one comes into power, it has always started again. Sure they know of the ups and down of the past but they have very few facts about it. You make a valid point as I remember being a loser in the downturn that started in 1992 and a winner in the upswing that started in 1998, none of it was based on facts available to me, just advice from people and my limited research. If the internet was what it is today in 1992 I may have not purchased and in 1998, I would have not sold a rental property. It can be chalked up to hindsight but to be honest there was no easy data for people like me who are not in the real estate industry. The information available today changes everything, or does it?

You really need to write a book bugs, I’m thinking of titles, porky pigginton and bugs bunny or the ACME anvil company is the internet and it flattens the Wile E. real esate bubbles, these are still in the rough draft phase of course.

[temeculaguy]

I know that all R/E is local and that in places where the pendulum never swung in the first place wont have a backswing. But there are some components that would work against rising prices in any area of the country.
1. Less bubble money/equity from CA,Fl, the North East, etc.
2. Rising interest rates
3. lender tightening
4. Loan programs being eliminated

The stars were perfectly aligned nationally for a R/E boom in 2003 and the areas where it didn’t take usually had a reason for it. Move those stars out of alignment and I don’t see why it would cause a sustainable boom now.

[temeculaguy]

I know that all R/E is local and that in places where the pendulum never swung in the first place wont have a backswing. But there are some components that would work against rising prices in any area of the country.
1. Less bubble money/equity from CA,Fl, the North East, etc.
2. Rising interest rates
3. lender tightening
4. Loan programs being eliminated

The stars were perfectly aligned nationally for a R/E boom in 2003 and the areas where it didn’t take usually had a reason for it. Move those stars out of alignment and I don’t see why it would cause a sustainable boom now.

[Author]

Posts