[temeculaguy]

davelj, I’m one of those guys, huge red flag.

[temeculaguy]

davelj, I’m one of those guys, huge red flag.

[temeculaguy]

davelj, I’m one of those guys, huge red flag.

[temeculaguy]

davelj, I’m one of those guys, huge red flag.

[temeculaguy]

jp, I know he is good looking, even waitinghawk has a hetero man crush, but don’t let him make you ignore facts, koolaid comes in both bear and bull flavors.

He is right on a number of points and his prediction of a September dramatic decline in prices will be proven, but we can all see that.

Just don’t buy into the smoke and mirrors about 4.2 year supply of inventory because he is using a “potential” numerator and a cherry picked denominator in coming to his conclusion. His ratio of nod to nod is 75%, where did he get that from?

You can’t use 75% of the nod’s, then divide them into today’s sales to come up with an inventory number that you compare to today’s actual supply of 11 months, making it seem like 4 to 5 times the inventory is on the way. You also can’t take all of the distress numbers and divide them by a single month of sales because they all don’t hit in a month. Most of his other observations are accurate, but this inflated stat instantly disqulifies him as a person to listen to. In one of his videos he has a white crt tube computer monitor on his desk, that was my first clue. Anyone who analyzes data seriously has to have dual flat screens, otherwise it’s like having a doctor wearing an iron maiden concert t-shirt or a stripper wearing granny panties, it just doesn’t look right.

[temeculaguy]

jp, I know he is good looking, even waitinghawk has a hetero man crush, but don’t let him make you ignore facts, koolaid comes in both bear and bull flavors.

He is right on a number of points and his prediction of a September dramatic decline in prices will be proven, but we can all see that.

Just don’t buy into the smoke and mirrors about 4.2 year supply of inventory because he is using a “potential” numerator and a cherry picked denominator in coming to his conclusion. His ratio of nod to nod is 75%, where did he get that from?

You can’t use 75% of the nod’s, then divide them into today’s sales to come up with an inventory number that you compare to today’s actual supply of 11 months, making it seem like 4 to 5 times the inventory is on the way. You also can’t take all of the distress numbers and divide them by a single month of sales because they all don’t hit in a month. Most of his other observations are accurate, but this inflated stat instantly disqulifies him as a person to listen to. In one of his videos he has a white crt tube computer monitor on his desk, that was my first clue. Anyone who analyzes data seriously has to have dual flat screens, otherwise it’s like having a doctor wearing an iron maiden concert t-shirt or a stripper wearing granny panties, it just doesn’t look right.

[temeculaguy]

jp, I know he is good looking, even waitinghawk has a hetero man crush, but don’t let him make you ignore facts, koolaid comes in both bear and bull flavors.

He is right on a number of points and his prediction of a September dramatic decline in prices will be proven, but we can all see that.

Just don’t buy into the smoke and mirrors about 4.2 year supply of inventory because he is using a “potential” numerator and a cherry picked denominator in coming to his conclusion. His ratio of nod to nod is 75%, where did he get that from?

You can’t use 75% of the nod’s, then divide them into today’s sales to come up with an inventory number that you compare to today’s actual supply of 11 months, making it seem like 4 to 5 times the inventory is on the way. You also can’t take all of the distress numbers and divide them by a single month of sales because they all don’t hit in a month. Most of his other observations are accurate, but this inflated stat instantly disqulifies him as a person to listen to. In one of his videos he has a white crt tube computer monitor on his desk, that was my first clue. Anyone who analyzes data seriously has to have dual flat screens, otherwise it’s like having a doctor wearing an iron maiden concert t-shirt or a stripper wearing granny panties, it just doesn’t look right.

[temeculaguy]

jp, I know he is good looking, even waitinghawk has a hetero man crush, but don’t let him make you ignore facts, koolaid comes in both bear and bull flavors.

He is right on a number of points and his prediction of a September dramatic decline in prices will be proven, but we can all see that.

Just don’t buy into the smoke and mirrors about 4.2 year supply of inventory because he is using a “potential” numerator and a cherry picked denominator in coming to his conclusion. His ratio of nod to nod is 75%, where did he get that from?

You can’t use 75% of the nod’s, then divide them into today’s sales to come up with an inventory number that you compare to today’s actual supply of 11 months, making it seem like 4 to 5 times the inventory is on the way. You also can’t take all of the distress numbers and divide them by a single month of sales because they all don’t hit in a month. Most of his other observations are accurate, but this inflated stat instantly disqulifies him as a person to listen to. In one of his videos he has a white crt tube computer monitor on his desk, that was my first clue. Anyone who analyzes data seriously has to have dual flat screens, otherwise it’s like having a doctor wearing an iron maiden concert t-shirt or a stripper wearing granny panties, it just doesn’t look right.

[temeculaguy]

jp, I know he is good looking, even waitinghawk has a hetero man crush, but don’t let him make you ignore facts, koolaid comes in both bear and bull flavors.

He is right on a number of points and his prediction of a September dramatic decline in prices will be proven, but we can all see that.

Just don’t buy into the smoke and mirrors about 4.2 year supply of inventory because he is using a “potential” numerator and a cherry picked denominator in coming to his conclusion. His ratio of nod to nod is 75%, where did he get that from?

You can’t use 75% of the nod’s, then divide them into today’s sales to come up with an inventory number that you compare to today’s actual supply of 11 months, making it seem like 4 to 5 times the inventory is on the way. You also can’t take all of the distress numbers and divide them by a single month of sales because they all don’t hit in a month. Most of his other observations are accurate, but this inflated stat instantly disqulifies him as a person to listen to. In one of his videos he has a white crt tube computer monitor on his desk, that was my first clue. Anyone who analyzes data seriously has to have dual flat screens, otherwise it’s like having a doctor wearing an iron maiden concert t-shirt or a stripper wearing granny panties, it just doesn’t look right.

[temeculaguy]

Be careful in subscribing to cospiracy theories, 4 years is too high of an estimate and inaccurate to include all phases of distress and potential distress into the numbers. I track foreclosures and distressed in a single zip code for two years using a variety of sources including visiting them in person and I am not finding a significant number of nod’s never getting to market, it takes a while but they all eventually get listed. I do believe that last year their seemed to be a bunch of them not being listed but they are hitting the market now and I don’t think the banks are in lockstep, they are competing. There are not 4 or 5 houses being purposely held off the market, sitting vacant for every one house listed, I’m just not buying it.

The term “shadow inventory” is not his, I’ve heard it for years but the term “phantom inventory” was coined by a blogger here and the main stream media has credited it. Forgive me if I am wrong but I think it was ocrenter or one of our oc guys who invented it (it escapes me but it is one of our regulars), I’ve seen him credited in articles on cnbc and the wsj.

Are there a dumpload of foreclosures in the pipeline, YES. Will it get worse because every day more and more are underwater making foreclosure the only option, YES. Will prices continue to fall, YES. But 4.2 years is too high of an estimate plus that number is based on today’s sales volume and even I will admit there are “shadow” buyers out there, because I’m one of them. However there is more shadow inventory than shadow buyers which is why prices will continue to decline for at least a year, some call that supply and demand.

[temeculaguy]

Be careful in subscribing to cospiracy theories, 4 years is too high of an estimate and inaccurate to include all phases of distress and potential distress into the numbers. I track foreclosures and distressed in a single zip code for two years using a variety of sources including visiting them in person and I am not finding a significant number of nod’s never getting to market, it takes a while but they all eventually get listed. I do believe that last year their seemed to be a bunch of them not being listed but they are hitting the market now and I don’t think the banks are in lockstep, they are competing. There are not 4 or 5 houses being purposely held off the market, sitting vacant for every one house listed, I’m just not buying it.

The term “shadow inventory” is not his, I’ve heard it for years but the term “phantom inventory” was coined by a blogger here and the main stream media has credited it. Forgive me if I am wrong but I think it was ocrenter or one of our oc guys who invented it (it escapes me but it is one of our regulars), I’ve seen him credited in articles on cnbc and the wsj.

Are there a dumpload of foreclosures in the pipeline, YES. Will it get worse because every day more and more are underwater making foreclosure the only option, YES. Will prices continue to fall, YES. But 4.2 years is too high of an estimate plus that number is based on today’s sales volume and even I will admit there are “shadow” buyers out there, because I’m one of them. However there is more shadow inventory than shadow buyers which is why prices will continue to decline for at least a year, some call that supply and demand.

[temeculaguy]

Be careful in subscribing to cospiracy theories, 4 years is too high of an estimate and inaccurate to include all phases of distress and potential distress into the numbers. I track foreclosures and distressed in a single zip code for two years using a variety of sources including visiting them in person and I am not finding a significant number of nod’s never getting to market, it takes a while but they all eventually get listed. I do believe that last year their seemed to be a bunch of them not being listed but they are hitting the market now and I don’t think the banks are in lockstep, they are competing. There are not 4 or 5 houses being purposely held off the market, sitting vacant for every one house listed, I’m just not buying it.

The term “shadow inventory” is not his, I’ve heard it for years but the term “phantom inventory” was coined by a blogger here and the main stream media has credited it. Forgive me if I am wrong but I think it was ocrenter or one of our oc guys who invented it (it escapes me but it is one of our regulars), I’ve seen him credited in articles on cnbc and the wsj.

Are there a dumpload of foreclosures in the pipeline, YES. Will it get worse because every day more and more are underwater making foreclosure the only option, YES. Will prices continue to fall, YES. But 4.2 years is too high of an estimate plus that number is based on today’s sales volume and even I will admit there are “shadow” buyers out there, because I’m one of them. However there is more shadow inventory than shadow buyers which is why prices will continue to decline for at least a year, some call that supply and demand.

[temeculaguy]

Be careful in subscribing to cospiracy theories, 4 years is too high of an estimate and inaccurate to include all phases of distress and potential distress into the numbers. I track foreclosures and distressed in a single zip code for two years using a variety of sources including visiting them in person and I am not finding a significant number of nod’s never getting to market, it takes a while but they all eventually get listed. I do believe that last year their seemed to be a bunch of them not being listed but they are hitting the market now and I don’t think the banks are in lockstep, they are competing. There are not 4 or 5 houses being purposely held off the market, sitting vacant for every one house listed, I’m just not buying it.

The term “shadow inventory” is not his, I’ve heard it for years but the term “phantom inventory” was coined by a blogger here and the main stream media has credited it. Forgive me if I am wrong but I think it was ocrenter or one of our oc guys who invented it (it escapes me but it is one of our regulars), I’ve seen him credited in articles on cnbc and the wsj.

Are there a dumpload of foreclosures in the pipeline, YES. Will it get worse because every day more and more are underwater making foreclosure the only option, YES. Will prices continue to fall, YES. But 4.2 years is too high of an estimate plus that number is based on today’s sales volume and even I will admit there are “shadow” buyers out there, because I’m one of them. However there is more shadow inventory than shadow buyers which is why prices will continue to decline for at least a year, some call that supply and demand.

[temeculaguy]

Be careful in subscribing to cospiracy theories, 4 years is too high of an estimate and inaccurate to include all phases of distress and potential distress into the numbers. I track foreclosures and distressed in a single zip code for two years using a variety of sources including visiting them in person and I am not finding a significant number of nod’s never getting to market, it takes a while but they all eventually get listed. I do believe that last year their seemed to be a bunch of them not being listed but they are hitting the market now and I don’t think the banks are in lockstep, they are competing. There are not 4 or 5 houses being purposely held off the market, sitting vacant for every one house listed, I’m just not buying it.

The term “shadow inventory” is not his, I’ve heard it for years but the term “phantom inventory” was coined by a blogger here and the main stream media has credited it. Forgive me if I am wrong but I think it was ocrenter or one of our oc guys who invented it (it escapes me but it is one of our regulars), I’ve seen him credited in articles on cnbc and the wsj.

Are there a dumpload of foreclosures in the pipeline, YES. Will it get worse because every day more and more are underwater making foreclosure the only option, YES. Will prices continue to fall, YES. But 4.2 years is too high of an estimate plus that number is based on today’s sales volume and even I will admit there are “shadow” buyers out there, because I’m one of them. However there is more shadow inventory than shadow buyers which is why prices will continue to decline for at least a year, some call that supply and demand.

[temeculaguy]

dizzle, good comments but just for the record, I am not a realtor or in any way employed in the R/E or banking field, nor do I have any plans to be, but it’s easy to make that assumption. I’ve lived in the valley for a couple of decades and owned a few homes but that is the extent of my expertise.

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