[temeculaguy]

You win, I read all of the data from the link and couldn’t find any holes to punch in it. I still think the stripper in granny panties joke was funny.

So what now? What is your best guess on timing this, there will be an end date and there will be a floor. In my hood I am already seeing instances of near rent neutral properties, but they sell within a day or two when they pop up, fortunately for me I haven’t liked any of them enough to jump in, I’m a very picky scavenger. I can find half off peak homes all day, I am doubtful I will find then for 25 cents on the dollar, what percentage from peak do you think things will settle at and when?

Here are two case studies and homes that do not have any big detractors for me, homes that I would buy today if I didn’t know what I know, these are for living in and not for investment purposes. Both are in the top 10% as far as neighborhoods go in my area and don’t have as many half off homes as other tracts just a mile or two away.

First one is listed at 440k, bought new for 780k 18 months ago. Bigger than I need but if it were to fall another 140k, it would end up costing me what I pay in rent for something a fraction of the size. Considering that I almost paid 400k for a townhouse in the same zip code two years ago, it has a near bottom feel to it.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45189-Rideau-St-92592/home/12502219

Second one, more along the lines of the size I need, typical 4/3 tract house, listed at 280k, bought new in 2002 for 250k and resold in 2005 for 490k, an offer of 250k today would make this cheaper than my rental. I’ve visited it three times but I believe there is another big drop on the horizon so I’m holding off.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/33242-Morning-View-Dr-92592/home/6363263

If that one falls to or below 200k, we will have reached 1998 pricing in real terms, not inflation adjusted. At some point things will have hit “Texas Pricing” and that would be a floor in my opinion.

While I haven’t decided how to take advantage of the current disaster in R/E (more house or lower payment or somewhere in between) I have decided to wait until the summer is over and re-evaluate, but I would like your opinion.

TG

[temeculaguy]

You win, I read all of the data from the link and couldn’t find any holes to punch in it. I still think the stripper in granny panties joke was funny.

So what now? What is your best guess on timing this, there will be an end date and there will be a floor. In my hood I am already seeing instances of near rent neutral properties, but they sell within a day or two when they pop up, fortunately for me I haven’t liked any of them enough to jump in, I’m a very picky scavenger. I can find half off peak homes all day, I am doubtful I will find then for 25 cents on the dollar, what percentage from peak do you think things will settle at and when?

Here are two case studies and homes that do not have any big detractors for me, homes that I would buy today if I didn’t know what I know, these are for living in and not for investment purposes. Both are in the top 10% as far as neighborhoods go in my area and don’t have as many half off homes as other tracts just a mile or two away.

First one is listed at 440k, bought new for 780k 18 months ago. Bigger than I need but if it were to fall another 140k, it would end up costing me what I pay in rent for something a fraction of the size. Considering that I almost paid 400k for a townhouse in the same zip code two years ago, it has a near bottom feel to it.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45189-Rideau-St-92592/home/12502219

Second one, more along the lines of the size I need, typical 4/3 tract house, listed at 280k, bought new in 2002 for 250k and resold in 2005 for 490k, an offer of 250k today would make this cheaper than my rental. I’ve visited it three times but I believe there is another big drop on the horizon so I’m holding off.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/33242-Morning-View-Dr-92592/home/6363263

If that one falls to or below 200k, we will have reached 1998 pricing in real terms, not inflation adjusted. At some point things will have hit “Texas Pricing” and that would be a floor in my opinion.

While I haven’t decided how to take advantage of the current disaster in R/E (more house or lower payment or somewhere in between) I have decided to wait until the summer is over and re-evaluate, but I would like your opinion.

TG

[temeculaguy]

You win, I read all of the data from the link and couldn’t find any holes to punch in it. I still think the stripper in granny panties joke was funny.

So what now? What is your best guess on timing this, there will be an end date and there will be a floor. In my hood I am already seeing instances of near rent neutral properties, but they sell within a day or two when they pop up, fortunately for me I haven’t liked any of them enough to jump in, I’m a very picky scavenger. I can find half off peak homes all day, I am doubtful I will find then for 25 cents on the dollar, what percentage from peak do you think things will settle at and when?

Here are two case studies and homes that do not have any big detractors for me, homes that I would buy today if I didn’t know what I know, these are for living in and not for investment purposes. Both are in the top 10% as far as neighborhoods go in my area and don’t have as many half off homes as other tracts just a mile or two away.

First one is listed at 440k, bought new for 780k 18 months ago. Bigger than I need but if it were to fall another 140k, it would end up costing me what I pay in rent for something a fraction of the size. Considering that I almost paid 400k for a townhouse in the same zip code two years ago, it has a near bottom feel to it.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45189-Rideau-St-92592/home/12502219

Second one, more along the lines of the size I need, typical 4/3 tract house, listed at 280k, bought new in 2002 for 250k and resold in 2005 for 490k, an offer of 250k today would make this cheaper than my rental. I’ve visited it three times but I believe there is another big drop on the horizon so I’m holding off.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/33242-Morning-View-Dr-92592/home/6363263

If that one falls to or below 200k, we will have reached 1998 pricing in real terms, not inflation adjusted. At some point things will have hit “Texas Pricing” and that would be a floor in my opinion.

While I haven’t decided how to take advantage of the current disaster in R/E (more house or lower payment or somewhere in between) I have decided to wait until the summer is over and re-evaluate, but I would like your opinion.

TG

[temeculaguy]

You win, I read all of the data from the link and couldn’t find any holes to punch in it. I still think the stripper in granny panties joke was funny.

So what now? What is your best guess on timing this, there will be an end date and there will be a floor. In my hood I am already seeing instances of near rent neutral properties, but they sell within a day or two when they pop up, fortunately for me I haven’t liked any of them enough to jump in, I’m a very picky scavenger. I can find half off peak homes all day, I am doubtful I will find then for 25 cents on the dollar, what percentage from peak do you think things will settle at and when?

Here are two case studies and homes that do not have any big detractors for me, homes that I would buy today if I didn’t know what I know, these are for living in and not for investment purposes. Both are in the top 10% as far as neighborhoods go in my area and don’t have as many half off homes as other tracts just a mile or two away.

First one is listed at 440k, bought new for 780k 18 months ago. Bigger than I need but if it were to fall another 140k, it would end up costing me what I pay in rent for something a fraction of the size. Considering that I almost paid 400k for a townhouse in the same zip code two years ago, it has a near bottom feel to it.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45189-Rideau-St-92592/home/12502219

Second one, more along the lines of the size I need, typical 4/3 tract house, listed at 280k, bought new in 2002 for 250k and resold in 2005 for 490k, an offer of 250k today would make this cheaper than my rental. I’ve visited it three times but I believe there is another big drop on the horizon so I’m holding off.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/33242-Morning-View-Dr-92592/home/6363263

If that one falls to or below 200k, we will have reached 1998 pricing in real terms, not inflation adjusted. At some point things will have hit “Texas Pricing” and that would be a floor in my opinion.

While I haven’t decided how to take advantage of the current disaster in R/E (more house or lower payment or somewhere in between) I have decided to wait until the summer is over and re-evaluate, but I would like your opinion.

TG

[temeculaguy]

While there will always be someone who can get a better deal can you answer the following questions.

1. Are you putting money down?
2. Is the rate fixed?
3. Can you afford it without strecthing or sacrificing?
4. Are you going to stay?

Answer yes to those four questions and it really doesn’t matter since you got it for more than 40% off peak. You will have the lowest mortgage of any of your neighbors, you didn’t pay a ridiculous price and you dont NEED IT TO GO UP IN PRICE. So if it doesn’t, who cares, it’s a freakin house and not an investment. When the payment gets near the rental cost, all you have done is sign a long term lease, and nobody would fault you for that.

I think you could have carved another 50K off after September but if you were already happy with the 430k you saved by waiting this long and can afford it easliy, who gives a crap, enjoy it.

[temeculaguy]

While there will always be someone who can get a better deal can you answer the following questions.

1. Are you putting money down?
2. Is the rate fixed?
3. Can you afford it without strecthing or sacrificing?
4. Are you going to stay?

Answer yes to those four questions and it really doesn’t matter since you got it for more than 40% off peak. You will have the lowest mortgage of any of your neighbors, you didn’t pay a ridiculous price and you dont NEED IT TO GO UP IN PRICE. So if it doesn’t, who cares, it’s a freakin house and not an investment. When the payment gets near the rental cost, all you have done is sign a long term lease, and nobody would fault you for that.

I think you could have carved another 50K off after September but if you were already happy with the 430k you saved by waiting this long and can afford it easliy, who gives a crap, enjoy it.

[temeculaguy]

While there will always be someone who can get a better deal can you answer the following questions.

1. Are you putting money down?
2. Is the rate fixed?
3. Can you afford it without strecthing or sacrificing?
4. Are you going to stay?

Answer yes to those four questions and it really doesn’t matter since you got it for more than 40% off peak. You will have the lowest mortgage of any of your neighbors, you didn’t pay a ridiculous price and you dont NEED IT TO GO UP IN PRICE. So if it doesn’t, who cares, it’s a freakin house and not an investment. When the payment gets near the rental cost, all you have done is sign a long term lease, and nobody would fault you for that.

I think you could have carved another 50K off after September but if you were already happy with the 430k you saved by waiting this long and can afford it easliy, who gives a crap, enjoy it.

[temeculaguy]

While there will always be someone who can get a better deal can you answer the following questions.

1. Are you putting money down?
2. Is the rate fixed?
3. Can you afford it without strecthing or sacrificing?
4. Are you going to stay?

Answer yes to those four questions and it really doesn’t matter since you got it for more than 40% off peak. You will have the lowest mortgage of any of your neighbors, you didn’t pay a ridiculous price and you dont NEED IT TO GO UP IN PRICE. So if it doesn’t, who cares, it’s a freakin house and not an investment. When the payment gets near the rental cost, all you have done is sign a long term lease, and nobody would fault you for that.

I think you could have carved another 50K off after September but if you were already happy with the 430k you saved by waiting this long and can afford it easliy, who gives a crap, enjoy it.

[temeculaguy]

While there will always be someone who can get a better deal can you answer the following questions.

1. Are you putting money down?
2. Is the rate fixed?
3. Can you afford it without strecthing or sacrificing?
4. Are you going to stay?

Answer yes to those four questions and it really doesn’t matter since you got it for more than 40% off peak. You will have the lowest mortgage of any of your neighbors, you didn’t pay a ridiculous price and you dont NEED IT TO GO UP IN PRICE. So if it doesn’t, who cares, it’s a freakin house and not an investment. When the payment gets near the rental cost, all you have done is sign a long term lease, and nobody would fault you for that.

I think you could have carved another 50K off after September but if you were already happy with the 430k you saved by waiting this long and can afford it easliy, who gives a crap, enjoy it.

[temeculaguy]

I don’t think the monitor comment was trivial, it was a nice setup to a hillarious joke. I’ll give you points for addressing the other criticism but you have to admit that the here and now numbers will not continue forever. Just like percentage gains during the rise could not be sustained, planning as if the record foreclosures/dismal sales will be sustained will get someone into similar trouble. What we are likely seeing is the tipping point, rather than a sustainable long term trend, two years from now there won’t be the same level of resets and the majority that needed dramatic price gains and a refi to survive will have been flushed out already. But you are right, there are too many wildcards. The wild claims aside, do you honestly believe we will have 4.2 years of inventory on the market at somepoint in the next two years, I think 2 inventory would be a stretch. Steer clear of wild predictions, take the movie producer’s advice and you just might extend your fifteen minutes of fame.

One last question, where are your numbers about nod/not ratio coming from, Rich posts a not/nod graph about every month and 75-80% ratio let alone 98% is just not there. I track foreclosure.com and the “sheriff sales” (aka back to the bank) is nowhere near those ratios. You may be right, I have just never seet stats put out on it.

[temeculaguy]

I don’t think the monitor comment was trivial, it was a nice setup to a hillarious joke. I’ll give you points for addressing the other criticism but you have to admit that the here and now numbers will not continue forever. Just like percentage gains during the rise could not be sustained, planning as if the record foreclosures/dismal sales will be sustained will get someone into similar trouble. What we are likely seeing is the tipping point, rather than a sustainable long term trend, two years from now there won’t be the same level of resets and the majority that needed dramatic price gains and a refi to survive will have been flushed out already. But you are right, there are too many wildcards. The wild claims aside, do you honestly believe we will have 4.2 years of inventory on the market at somepoint in the next two years, I think 2 inventory would be a stretch. Steer clear of wild predictions, take the movie producer’s advice and you just might extend your fifteen minutes of fame.

One last question, where are your numbers about nod/not ratio coming from, Rich posts a not/nod graph about every month and 75-80% ratio let alone 98% is just not there. I track foreclosure.com and the “sheriff sales” (aka back to the bank) is nowhere near those ratios. You may be right, I have just never seet stats put out on it.

[temeculaguy]

I don’t think the monitor comment was trivial, it was a nice setup to a hillarious joke. I’ll give you points for addressing the other criticism but you have to admit that the here and now numbers will not continue forever. Just like percentage gains during the rise could not be sustained, planning as if the record foreclosures/dismal sales will be sustained will get someone into similar trouble. What we are likely seeing is the tipping point, rather than a sustainable long term trend, two years from now there won’t be the same level of resets and the majority that needed dramatic price gains and a refi to survive will have been flushed out already. But you are right, there are too many wildcards. The wild claims aside, do you honestly believe we will have 4.2 years of inventory on the market at somepoint in the next two years, I think 2 inventory would be a stretch. Steer clear of wild predictions, take the movie producer’s advice and you just might extend your fifteen minutes of fame.

One last question, where are your numbers about nod/not ratio coming from, Rich posts a not/nod graph about every month and 75-80% ratio let alone 98% is just not there. I track foreclosure.com and the “sheriff sales” (aka back to the bank) is nowhere near those ratios. You may be right, I have just never seet stats put out on it.

[temeculaguy]

I don’t think the monitor comment was trivial, it was a nice setup to a hillarious joke. I’ll give you points for addressing the other criticism but you have to admit that the here and now numbers will not continue forever. Just like percentage gains during the rise could not be sustained, planning as if the record foreclosures/dismal sales will be sustained will get someone into similar trouble. What we are likely seeing is the tipping point, rather than a sustainable long term trend, two years from now there won’t be the same level of resets and the majority that needed dramatic price gains and a refi to survive will have been flushed out already. But you are right, there are too many wildcards. The wild claims aside, do you honestly believe we will have 4.2 years of inventory on the market at somepoint in the next two years, I think 2 inventory would be a stretch. Steer clear of wild predictions, take the movie producer’s advice and you just might extend your fifteen minutes of fame.

One last question, where are your numbers about nod/not ratio coming from, Rich posts a not/nod graph about every month and 75-80% ratio let alone 98% is just not there. I track foreclosure.com and the “sheriff sales” (aka back to the bank) is nowhere near those ratios. You may be right, I have just never seet stats put out on it.

[temeculaguy]

I don’t think the monitor comment was trivial, it was a nice setup to a hillarious joke. I’ll give you points for addressing the other criticism but you have to admit that the here and now numbers will not continue forever. Just like percentage gains during the rise could not be sustained, planning as if the record foreclosures/dismal sales will be sustained will get someone into similar trouble. What we are likely seeing is the tipping point, rather than a sustainable long term trend, two years from now there won’t be the same level of resets and the majority that needed dramatic price gains and a refi to survive will have been flushed out already. But you are right, there are too many wildcards. The wild claims aside, do you honestly believe we will have 4.2 years of inventory on the market at somepoint in the next two years, I think 2 inventory would be a stretch. Steer clear of wild predictions, take the movie producer’s advice and you just might extend your fifteen minutes of fame.

One last question, where are your numbers about nod/not ratio coming from, Rich posts a not/nod graph about every month and 75-80% ratio let alone 98% is just not there. I track foreclosure.com and the “sheriff sales” (aka back to the bank) is nowhere near those ratios. You may be right, I have just never seet stats put out on it.

[temeculaguy]

davelj, I’m one of those guys, huge red flag.

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