[temeculaguy]

HLS, I love the bar analogies. How much have I saved, hard question because my housing target keeps changing. 9 months ago I was somewhat serious about the little houses I linked and was looking at one listed for 350k, could get it today for under 250k so conservatively I’ve saved 100k in 6-9 months. But I also looked at them new 18-24 months ago and 425k was what I was looking at paying, so in two years, I’m 200k to the good, it’s like having another job. I would have been happy to pay 350k at the time if I could get something that mostly fit my needs.

But now that those are below my price range I’ve just started shopping and tracking places in a better location, truth be told I’d like to pay about 300k, maybe a little less depending on what it needs right away. In the end I’ll get far more for 300k than I would have gotten for 350k 6-9 months ago. The precise location I want still isn’t at my target price but it’s close, yet that bar opened later and only the daydrinkers are present (the bargains are on the worst lots or need massive repairs). The perfect ones are just about 50k away, so time will tell, but they are getting snapped up quickly when they appear so I am going to need another leg down to occur before they become commonplace. I have a feeling when the summer ends, things are going to take another 50-100k fall, then the real dillema will occurr, buy something more affordable than rent, buy the dream house for a price equal to rent after tax benefits are considered but still more than rent when considering gross monthly outlay, or continue to wait and get the dream house for less than rent. My current rent has me flush with more cash than I have ever had in my life and I am kinda getting used to it. It’s funny but my overall net worth is the lowest in 20 years, this is the first time I have not owned a single home and I am richer than I have ever been as far as my monthly balance sheet goes, funny how things work, less is more.

[temeculaguy]

HLS, I love the bar analogies. How much have I saved, hard question because my housing target keeps changing. 9 months ago I was somewhat serious about the little houses I linked and was looking at one listed for 350k, could get it today for under 250k so conservatively I’ve saved 100k in 6-9 months. But I also looked at them new 18-24 months ago and 425k was what I was looking at paying, so in two years, I’m 200k to the good, it’s like having another job. I would have been happy to pay 350k at the time if I could get something that mostly fit my needs.

But now that those are below my price range I’ve just started shopping and tracking places in a better location, truth be told I’d like to pay about 300k, maybe a little less depending on what it needs right away. In the end I’ll get far more for 300k than I would have gotten for 350k 6-9 months ago. The precise location I want still isn’t at my target price but it’s close, yet that bar opened later and only the daydrinkers are present (the bargains are on the worst lots or need massive repairs). The perfect ones are just about 50k away, so time will tell, but they are getting snapped up quickly when they appear so I am going to need another leg down to occur before they become commonplace. I have a feeling when the summer ends, things are going to take another 50-100k fall, then the real dillema will occurr, buy something more affordable than rent, buy the dream house for a price equal to rent after tax benefits are considered but still more than rent when considering gross monthly outlay, or continue to wait and get the dream house for less than rent. My current rent has me flush with more cash than I have ever had in my life and I am kinda getting used to it. It’s funny but my overall net worth is the lowest in 20 years, this is the first time I have not owned a single home and I am richer than I have ever been as far as my monthly balance sheet goes, funny how things work, less is more.

[temeculaguy]

HLS, I love the bar analogies. How much have I saved, hard question because my housing target keeps changing. 9 months ago I was somewhat serious about the little houses I linked and was looking at one listed for 350k, could get it today for under 250k so conservatively I’ve saved 100k in 6-9 months. But I also looked at them new 18-24 months ago and 425k was what I was looking at paying, so in two years, I’m 200k to the good, it’s like having another job. I would have been happy to pay 350k at the time if I could get something that mostly fit my needs.

But now that those are below my price range I’ve just started shopping and tracking places in a better location, truth be told I’d like to pay about 300k, maybe a little less depending on what it needs right away. In the end I’ll get far more for 300k than I would have gotten for 350k 6-9 months ago. The precise location I want still isn’t at my target price but it’s close, yet that bar opened later and only the daydrinkers are present (the bargains are on the worst lots or need massive repairs). The perfect ones are just about 50k away, so time will tell, but they are getting snapped up quickly when they appear so I am going to need another leg down to occur before they become commonplace. I have a feeling when the summer ends, things are going to take another 50-100k fall, then the real dillema will occurr, buy something more affordable than rent, buy the dream house for a price equal to rent after tax benefits are considered but still more than rent when considering gross monthly outlay, or continue to wait and get the dream house for less than rent. My current rent has me flush with more cash than I have ever had in my life and I am kinda getting used to it. It’s funny but my overall net worth is the lowest in 20 years, this is the first time I have not owned a single home and I am richer than I have ever been as far as my monthly balance sheet goes, funny how things work, less is more.

[temeculaguy]

HLS, I love the bar analogies. How much have I saved, hard question because my housing target keeps changing. 9 months ago I was somewhat serious about the little houses I linked and was looking at one listed for 350k, could get it today for under 250k so conservatively I’ve saved 100k in 6-9 months. But I also looked at them new 18-24 months ago and 425k was what I was looking at paying, so in two years, I’m 200k to the good, it’s like having another job. I would have been happy to pay 350k at the time if I could get something that mostly fit my needs.

But now that those are below my price range I’ve just started shopping and tracking places in a better location, truth be told I’d like to pay about 300k, maybe a little less depending on what it needs right away. In the end I’ll get far more for 300k than I would have gotten for 350k 6-9 months ago. The precise location I want still isn’t at my target price but it’s close, yet that bar opened later and only the daydrinkers are present (the bargains are on the worst lots or need massive repairs). The perfect ones are just about 50k away, so time will tell, but they are getting snapped up quickly when they appear so I am going to need another leg down to occur before they become commonplace. I have a feeling when the summer ends, things are going to take another 50-100k fall, then the real dillema will occurr, buy something more affordable than rent, buy the dream house for a price equal to rent after tax benefits are considered but still more than rent when considering gross monthly outlay, or continue to wait and get the dream house for less than rent. My current rent has me flush with more cash than I have ever had in my life and I am kinda getting used to it. It’s funny but my overall net worth is the lowest in 20 years, this is the first time I have not owned a single home and I am richer than I have ever been as far as my monthly balance sheet goes, funny how things work, less is more.

[temeculaguy]

A little update four months later, looks like everyone was right, especially esmith for calling out the specific addresses, all of which are listed in the mid 200’s.

It’s a little 100 or so home tract, currently 12 are listed and are a mix of REO and shorts ranging from 225k, no “normal” since the whole tract is close to 50% underwater since built two years ago.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45701-Sierra-Ct-92592/home/12273722

or this one for 259k down from 289k last month

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31561-Six-Rivers-Ct-92592/home/8172222

This paradigm shift is moving so much faster than expected.

Only one listing in the tract is above 300k. Most are about 250k, some lower, some higher but definately all within range of a 216k offer and this is during the spring, what will winter bring?

I’ve completely talked myself out of this location and have shifted my sights a little higher but it’s nice to see how the market reacts and the popcorn theory in effect, first one popped at a great price, now they are so frequent I barely notice.

[temeculaguy]

A little update four months later, looks like everyone was right, especially esmith for calling out the specific addresses, all of which are listed in the mid 200’s.

It’s a little 100 or so home tract, currently 12 are listed and are a mix of REO and shorts ranging from 225k, no “normal” since the whole tract is close to 50% underwater since built two years ago.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45701-Sierra-Ct-92592/home/12273722

or this one for 259k down from 289k last month

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31561-Six-Rivers-Ct-92592/home/8172222

This paradigm shift is moving so much faster than expected.

Only one listing in the tract is above 300k. Most are about 250k, some lower, some higher but definately all within range of a 216k offer and this is during the spring, what will winter bring?

I’ve completely talked myself out of this location and have shifted my sights a little higher but it’s nice to see how the market reacts and the popcorn theory in effect, first one popped at a great price, now they are so frequent I barely notice.

[temeculaguy]

A little update four months later, looks like everyone was right, especially esmith for calling out the specific addresses, all of which are listed in the mid 200’s.

It’s a little 100 or so home tract, currently 12 are listed and are a mix of REO and shorts ranging from 225k, no “normal” since the whole tract is close to 50% underwater since built two years ago.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45701-Sierra-Ct-92592/home/12273722

or this one for 259k down from 289k last month

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31561-Six-Rivers-Ct-92592/home/8172222

This paradigm shift is moving so much faster than expected.

Only one listing in the tract is above 300k. Most are about 250k, some lower, some higher but definately all within range of a 216k offer and this is during the spring, what will winter bring?

I’ve completely talked myself out of this location and have shifted my sights a little higher but it’s nice to see how the market reacts and the popcorn theory in effect, first one popped at a great price, now they are so frequent I barely notice.

[temeculaguy]

A little update four months later, looks like everyone was right, especially esmith for calling out the specific addresses, all of which are listed in the mid 200’s.

It’s a little 100 or so home tract, currently 12 are listed and are a mix of REO and shorts ranging from 225k, no “normal” since the whole tract is close to 50% underwater since built two years ago.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45701-Sierra-Ct-92592/home/12273722

or this one for 259k down from 289k last month

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31561-Six-Rivers-Ct-92592/home/8172222

This paradigm shift is moving so much faster than expected.

Only one listing in the tract is above 300k. Most are about 250k, some lower, some higher but definately all within range of a 216k offer and this is during the spring, what will winter bring?

I’ve completely talked myself out of this location and have shifted my sights a little higher but it’s nice to see how the market reacts and the popcorn theory in effect, first one popped at a great price, now they are so frequent I barely notice.

[temeculaguy]

A little update four months later, looks like everyone was right, especially esmith for calling out the specific addresses, all of which are listed in the mid 200’s.

It’s a little 100 or so home tract, currently 12 are listed and are a mix of REO and shorts ranging from 225k, no “normal” since the whole tract is close to 50% underwater since built two years ago.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45701-Sierra-Ct-92592/home/12273722

or this one for 259k down from 289k last month

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31561-Six-Rivers-Ct-92592/home/8172222

This paradigm shift is moving so much faster than expected.

Only one listing in the tract is above 300k. Most are about 250k, some lower, some higher but definately all within range of a 216k offer and this is during the spring, what will winter bring?

I’ve completely talked myself out of this location and have shifted my sights a little higher but it’s nice to see how the market reacts and the popcorn theory in effect, first one popped at a great price, now they are so frequent I barely notice.

[temeculaguy]

I’m sure things are bad all over but it’s funny you should mention costco in Temecula, I was there today and I think I got the only spot left in the parking lot about 1/4 mile away, then waited 30 minutes because of the lines and didn’t even get one sample because it was a zoo. I wish you were right and I could have the stores to myself but it isn’t the case. I was at the mall on Saturday, another zoo. Somebody still has money.

[temeculaguy]

I’m sure things are bad all over but it’s funny you should mention costco in Temecula, I was there today and I think I got the only spot left in the parking lot about 1/4 mile away, then waited 30 minutes because of the lines and didn’t even get one sample because it was a zoo. I wish you were right and I could have the stores to myself but it isn’t the case. I was at the mall on Saturday, another zoo. Somebody still has money.

[temeculaguy]

I’m sure things are bad all over but it’s funny you should mention costco in Temecula, I was there today and I think I got the only spot left in the parking lot about 1/4 mile away, then waited 30 minutes because of the lines and didn’t even get one sample because it was a zoo. I wish you were right and I could have the stores to myself but it isn’t the case. I was at the mall on Saturday, another zoo. Somebody still has money.

[temeculaguy]

I’m sure things are bad all over but it’s funny you should mention costco in Temecula, I was there today and I think I got the only spot left in the parking lot about 1/4 mile away, then waited 30 minutes because of the lines and didn’t even get one sample because it was a zoo. I wish you were right and I could have the stores to myself but it isn’t the case. I was at the mall on Saturday, another zoo. Somebody still has money.

[temeculaguy]

I’m sure things are bad all over but it’s funny you should mention costco in Temecula, I was there today and I think I got the only spot left in the parking lot about 1/4 mile away, then waited 30 minutes because of the lines and didn’t even get one sample because it was a zoo. I wish you were right and I could have the stores to myself but it isn’t the case. I was at the mall on Saturday, another zoo. Somebody still has money.

[temeculaguy]

You win, I read all of the data from the link and couldn’t find any holes to punch in it. I still think the stripper in granny panties joke was funny.

So what now? What is your best guess on timing this, there will be an end date and there will be a floor. In my hood I am already seeing instances of near rent neutral properties, but they sell within a day or two when they pop up, fortunately for me I haven’t liked any of them enough to jump in, I’m a very picky scavenger. I can find half off peak homes all day, I am doubtful I will find then for 25 cents on the dollar, what percentage from peak do you think things will settle at and when?

Here are two case studies and homes that do not have any big detractors for me, homes that I would buy today if I didn’t know what I know, these are for living in and not for investment purposes. Both are in the top 10% as far as neighborhoods go in my area and don’t have as many half off homes as other tracts just a mile or two away.

First one is listed at 440k, bought new for 780k 18 months ago. Bigger than I need but if it were to fall another 140k, it would end up costing me what I pay in rent for something a fraction of the size. Considering that I almost paid 400k for a townhouse in the same zip code two years ago, it has a near bottom feel to it.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45189-Rideau-St-92592/home/12502219

Second one, more along the lines of the size I need, typical 4/3 tract house, listed at 280k, bought new in 2002 for 250k and resold in 2005 for 490k, an offer of 250k today would make this cheaper than my rental. I’ve visited it three times but I believe there is another big drop on the horizon so I’m holding off.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/33242-Morning-View-Dr-92592/home/6363263

If that one falls to or below 200k, we will have reached 1998 pricing in real terms, not inflation adjusted. At some point things will have hit “Texas Pricing” and that would be a floor in my opinion.

While I haven’t decided how to take advantage of the current disaster in R/E (more house or lower payment or somewhere in between) I have decided to wait until the summer is over and re-evaluate, but I would like your opinion.

TG

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