[temeculaguy]

For a minute I thought you were going to reference the post I made on the geography poll regarding India. I was half asleep but remembered it was funny and wanted to reread it, yet it was gone from the top ten and I couldn’t find it either.

Yes I was on a rant, in fact tonight I checked it and 20 more nots were added to go back to the bank this week, yet only two or three new listings in the last two days. I have checked, but not on all of them so you may be right, there might be people delaying with short packages but those should end up listed at least. Could they be going to private investors without hitting the market, maybe some but not the volume I’m missing. I don’t believe in voluntary holdbacks either, it’s probably just overworked REO divisions. I’ll give it a few more weeks to come through, as sales slow and rates rise the reo folks should catch up. I just need more volume of must sells, inventory is falling, multiple offers are increasing, I refuse to believe that I may be wrong about this whole reverse flipping, that all the Fb’s are finding way to keep their houses, it is just so much easier to subscribe to the evil conspiracy theory.

Another part of that rant was the out of town (L.A. and O.C.) realtors with heavy accents (that is a gift, I can barely understand anything they say and it’s not english or spanish). Why would banks list with out of town realtors who are clueless about an area and even more clueless about R/E in general. It isn’t just a few examples, it’s fairly common. In some cases I may choose to play lowball with the listing agent (waiting hawk’s tactic revisited), we both understand the situation, they are aware of certain comps and addresses when I quote them and it’s just easier to cut the crap and not play “post bubble 101.” Are those agents charging so much less that the banks won’t go local. The last guy I talked to, Muhammad Al something or other, turned out to be a college student working under a broker who hadn’t a clue about anything. Nice kid, through our conversations at least I taught him what prop 13 was about and how property taxes are calculated. I also let him in on the whole home owners association fees thing and how gated communities are required to pave their own roads and pay their own streetlights, that is why a gate adds $100 a month because taxes wont pay for what the public cannot enjoy. He was pretty happy learning that some streets are private, how taxes are figured and how hoa’s manage certain things and how as a real estate professional these tidbits of information may come in handy someday. I lost him when i tried to convince him that the multicultuaral style of play invading the NBA is a good thing even if Pao, Sasha, Vlade, Mbenga and Turiaf couldn’t get it together against the celts. I explained that the rich history of certain rivalries and the power of fans such as those at the garden can totally change the game, I went on with some complaints about the officiating but I lost him pretty much after the third word I spoke, so i decided to not even discuss the complexities of the Patriots and spygate. If school is in session, it’s time to learn, but at least he picked up on the real estate taxes concept and how that affects marketability. But I digress.

[temeculaguy]

For a minute I thought you were going to reference the post I made on the geography poll regarding India. I was half asleep but remembered it was funny and wanted to reread it, yet it was gone from the top ten and I couldn’t find it either.

Yes I was on a rant, in fact tonight I checked it and 20 more nots were added to go back to the bank this week, yet only two or three new listings in the last two days. I have checked, but not on all of them so you may be right, there might be people delaying with short packages but those should end up listed at least. Could they be going to private investors without hitting the market, maybe some but not the volume I’m missing. I don’t believe in voluntary holdbacks either, it’s probably just overworked REO divisions. I’ll give it a few more weeks to come through, as sales slow and rates rise the reo folks should catch up. I just need more volume of must sells, inventory is falling, multiple offers are increasing, I refuse to believe that I may be wrong about this whole reverse flipping, that all the Fb’s are finding way to keep their houses, it is just so much easier to subscribe to the evil conspiracy theory.

Another part of that rant was the out of town (L.A. and O.C.) realtors with heavy accents (that is a gift, I can barely understand anything they say and it’s not english or spanish). Why would banks list with out of town realtors who are clueless about an area and even more clueless about R/E in general. It isn’t just a few examples, it’s fairly common. In some cases I may choose to play lowball with the listing agent (waiting hawk’s tactic revisited), we both understand the situation, they are aware of certain comps and addresses when I quote them and it’s just easier to cut the crap and not play “post bubble 101.” Are those agents charging so much less that the banks won’t go local. The last guy I talked to, Muhammad Al something or other, turned out to be a college student working under a broker who hadn’t a clue about anything. Nice kid, through our conversations at least I taught him what prop 13 was about and how property taxes are calculated. I also let him in on the whole home owners association fees thing and how gated communities are required to pave their own roads and pay their own streetlights, that is why a gate adds $100 a month because taxes wont pay for what the public cannot enjoy. He was pretty happy learning that some streets are private, how taxes are figured and how hoa’s manage certain things and how as a real estate professional these tidbits of information may come in handy someday. I lost him when i tried to convince him that the multicultuaral style of play invading the NBA is a good thing even if Pao, Sasha, Vlade, Mbenga and Turiaf couldn’t get it together against the celts. I explained that the rich history of certain rivalries and the power of fans such as those at the garden can totally change the game, I went on with some complaints about the officiating but I lost him pretty much after the third word I spoke, so i decided to not even discuss the complexities of the Patriots and spygate. If school is in session, it’s time to learn, but at least he picked up on the real estate taxes concept and how that affects marketability. But I digress.

[temeculaguy]

For a minute I thought you were going to reference the post I made on the geography poll regarding India. I was half asleep but remembered it was funny and wanted to reread it, yet it was gone from the top ten and I couldn’t find it either.

Yes I was on a rant, in fact tonight I checked it and 20 more nots were added to go back to the bank this week, yet only two or three new listings in the last two days. I have checked, but not on all of them so you may be right, there might be people delaying with short packages but those should end up listed at least. Could they be going to private investors without hitting the market, maybe some but not the volume I’m missing. I don’t believe in voluntary holdbacks either, it’s probably just overworked REO divisions. I’ll give it a few more weeks to come through, as sales slow and rates rise the reo folks should catch up. I just need more volume of must sells, inventory is falling, multiple offers are increasing, I refuse to believe that I may be wrong about this whole reverse flipping, that all the Fb’s are finding way to keep their houses, it is just so much easier to subscribe to the evil conspiracy theory.

Another part of that rant was the out of town (L.A. and O.C.) realtors with heavy accents (that is a gift, I can barely understand anything they say and it’s not english or spanish). Why would banks list with out of town realtors who are clueless about an area and even more clueless about R/E in general. It isn’t just a few examples, it’s fairly common. In some cases I may choose to play lowball with the listing agent (waiting hawk’s tactic revisited), we both understand the situation, they are aware of certain comps and addresses when I quote them and it’s just easier to cut the crap and not play “post bubble 101.” Are those agents charging so much less that the banks won’t go local. The last guy I talked to, Muhammad Al something or other, turned out to be a college student working under a broker who hadn’t a clue about anything. Nice kid, through our conversations at least I taught him what prop 13 was about and how property taxes are calculated. I also let him in on the whole home owners association fees thing and how gated communities are required to pave their own roads and pay their own streetlights, that is why a gate adds $100 a month because taxes wont pay for what the public cannot enjoy. He was pretty happy learning that some streets are private, how taxes are figured and how hoa’s manage certain things and how as a real estate professional these tidbits of information may come in handy someday. I lost him when i tried to convince him that the multicultuaral style of play invading the NBA is a good thing even if Pao, Sasha, Vlade, Mbenga and Turiaf couldn’t get it together against the celts. I explained that the rich history of certain rivalries and the power of fans such as those at the garden can totally change the game, I went on with some complaints about the officiating but I lost him pretty much after the third word I spoke, so i decided to not even discuss the complexities of the Patriots and spygate. If school is in session, it’s time to learn, but at least he picked up on the real estate taxes concept and how that affects marketability. But I digress.

[temeculaguy]

For a minute I thought you were going to reference the post I made on the geography poll regarding India. I was half asleep but remembered it was funny and wanted to reread it, yet it was gone from the top ten and I couldn’t find it either.

Yes I was on a rant, in fact tonight I checked it and 20 more nots were added to go back to the bank this week, yet only two or three new listings in the last two days. I have checked, but not on all of them so you may be right, there might be people delaying with short packages but those should end up listed at least. Could they be going to private investors without hitting the market, maybe some but not the volume I’m missing. I don’t believe in voluntary holdbacks either, it’s probably just overworked REO divisions. I’ll give it a few more weeks to come through, as sales slow and rates rise the reo folks should catch up. I just need more volume of must sells, inventory is falling, multiple offers are increasing, I refuse to believe that I may be wrong about this whole reverse flipping, that all the Fb’s are finding way to keep their houses, it is just so much easier to subscribe to the evil conspiracy theory.

Another part of that rant was the out of town (L.A. and O.C.) realtors with heavy accents (that is a gift, I can barely understand anything they say and it’s not english or spanish). Why would banks list with out of town realtors who are clueless about an area and even more clueless about R/E in general. It isn’t just a few examples, it’s fairly common. In some cases I may choose to play lowball with the listing agent (waiting hawk’s tactic revisited), we both understand the situation, they are aware of certain comps and addresses when I quote them and it’s just easier to cut the crap and not play “post bubble 101.” Are those agents charging so much less that the banks won’t go local. The last guy I talked to, Muhammad Al something or other, turned out to be a college student working under a broker who hadn’t a clue about anything. Nice kid, through our conversations at least I taught him what prop 13 was about and how property taxes are calculated. I also let him in on the whole home owners association fees thing and how gated communities are required to pave their own roads and pay their own streetlights, that is why a gate adds $100 a month because taxes wont pay for what the public cannot enjoy. He was pretty happy learning that some streets are private, how taxes are figured and how hoa’s manage certain things and how as a real estate professional these tidbits of information may come in handy someday. I lost him when i tried to convince him that the multicultuaral style of play invading the NBA is a good thing even if Pao, Sasha, Vlade, Mbenga and Turiaf couldn’t get it together against the celts. I explained that the rich history of certain rivalries and the power of fans such as those at the garden can totally change the game, I went on with some complaints about the officiating but I lost him pretty much after the third word I spoke, so i decided to not even discuss the complexities of the Patriots and spygate. If school is in session, it’s time to learn, but at least he picked up on the real estate taxes concept and how that affects marketability. But I digress.

[temeculaguy]

Price over rates, in fact root for high rates, it speeds up the correction. Your cousin gets 6.5 and lets say 500k sales price for arguments sake. Rates go to 8%, he can’t sell for 500 any longer, nor can his neighbors, the high rates scare off the buyers because they drank the kool aid and think high rates=bad, low rates=good. Some people in his neighborhood need to sell due to divorce, transfer, death, job loss (life happens to a percentage of any street). They have an even harder time, prices go down further, people with arms cant refi, refi’s are dead, equity costs too much, foreclosures increase, prices decline further, lather, rinse, repeat. In a meltdown, stable rates stretch things out, rate increases cause arterial blood to flow.

Still feel the same fear of rising rates? They are actually your friend. They don’t always cause the immediate price declines with one exception, during repo driven market, which we are in. Scare off 70% of the buyers with record rates and watch what happens with all this “must sell” inventory, the best auction is the one where you are the only bidder.

There was a comment about getting property taxes reduced if values fall and that is true, you can appeal your tax valuation to the assessor. I believe there is a hitch, when values return, so does the original value even if the rise is higher than the amount permitted by prop 13 because you were given a temporary reduced value as opposed to someone who actually paid that lower amount. I could be wrong but that is my understanding of the valuation appeal having done it in the early/mid 1990’s, that was a alot of cabernet ago, so my memory is fuzzy.

[temeculaguy]

Price over rates, in fact root for high rates, it speeds up the correction. Your cousin gets 6.5 and lets say 500k sales price for arguments sake. Rates go to 8%, he can’t sell for 500 any longer, nor can his neighbors, the high rates scare off the buyers because they drank the kool aid and think high rates=bad, low rates=good. Some people in his neighborhood need to sell due to divorce, transfer, death, job loss (life happens to a percentage of any street). They have an even harder time, prices go down further, people with arms cant refi, refi’s are dead, equity costs too much, foreclosures increase, prices decline further, lather, rinse, repeat. In a meltdown, stable rates stretch things out, rate increases cause arterial blood to flow.

Still feel the same fear of rising rates? They are actually your friend. They don’t always cause the immediate price declines with one exception, during repo driven market, which we are in. Scare off 70% of the buyers with record rates and watch what happens with all this “must sell” inventory, the best auction is the one where you are the only bidder.

There was a comment about getting property taxes reduced if values fall and that is true, you can appeal your tax valuation to the assessor. I believe there is a hitch, when values return, so does the original value even if the rise is higher than the amount permitted by prop 13 because you were given a temporary reduced value as opposed to someone who actually paid that lower amount. I could be wrong but that is my understanding of the valuation appeal having done it in the early/mid 1990’s, that was a alot of cabernet ago, so my memory is fuzzy.

[temeculaguy]

Price over rates, in fact root for high rates, it speeds up the correction. Your cousin gets 6.5 and lets say 500k sales price for arguments sake. Rates go to 8%, he can’t sell for 500 any longer, nor can his neighbors, the high rates scare off the buyers because they drank the kool aid and think high rates=bad, low rates=good. Some people in his neighborhood need to sell due to divorce, transfer, death, job loss (life happens to a percentage of any street). They have an even harder time, prices go down further, people with arms cant refi, refi’s are dead, equity costs too much, foreclosures increase, prices decline further, lather, rinse, repeat. In a meltdown, stable rates stretch things out, rate increases cause arterial blood to flow.

Still feel the same fear of rising rates? They are actually your friend. They don’t always cause the immediate price declines with one exception, during repo driven market, which we are in. Scare off 70% of the buyers with record rates and watch what happens with all this “must sell” inventory, the best auction is the one where you are the only bidder.

There was a comment about getting property taxes reduced if values fall and that is true, you can appeal your tax valuation to the assessor. I believe there is a hitch, when values return, so does the original value even if the rise is higher than the amount permitted by prop 13 because you were given a temporary reduced value as opposed to someone who actually paid that lower amount. I could be wrong but that is my understanding of the valuation appeal having done it in the early/mid 1990’s, that was a alot of cabernet ago, so my memory is fuzzy.

[temeculaguy]

Price over rates, in fact root for high rates, it speeds up the correction. Your cousin gets 6.5 and lets say 500k sales price for arguments sake. Rates go to 8%, he can’t sell for 500 any longer, nor can his neighbors, the high rates scare off the buyers because they drank the kool aid and think high rates=bad, low rates=good. Some people in his neighborhood need to sell due to divorce, transfer, death, job loss (life happens to a percentage of any street). They have an even harder time, prices go down further, people with arms cant refi, refi’s are dead, equity costs too much, foreclosures increase, prices decline further, lather, rinse, repeat. In a meltdown, stable rates stretch things out, rate increases cause arterial blood to flow.

Still feel the same fear of rising rates? They are actually your friend. They don’t always cause the immediate price declines with one exception, during repo driven market, which we are in. Scare off 70% of the buyers with record rates and watch what happens with all this “must sell” inventory, the best auction is the one where you are the only bidder.

There was a comment about getting property taxes reduced if values fall and that is true, you can appeal your tax valuation to the assessor. I believe there is a hitch, when values return, so does the original value even if the rise is higher than the amount permitted by prop 13 because you were given a temporary reduced value as opposed to someone who actually paid that lower amount. I could be wrong but that is my understanding of the valuation appeal having done it in the early/mid 1990’s, that was a alot of cabernet ago, so my memory is fuzzy.

[temeculaguy]

Price over rates, in fact root for high rates, it speeds up the correction. Your cousin gets 6.5 and lets say 500k sales price for arguments sake. Rates go to 8%, he can’t sell for 500 any longer, nor can his neighbors, the high rates scare off the buyers because they drank the kool aid and think high rates=bad, low rates=good. Some people in his neighborhood need to sell due to divorce, transfer, death, job loss (life happens to a percentage of any street). They have an even harder time, prices go down further, people with arms cant refi, refi’s are dead, equity costs too much, foreclosures increase, prices decline further, lather, rinse, repeat. In a meltdown, stable rates stretch things out, rate increases cause arterial blood to flow.

Still feel the same fear of rising rates? They are actually your friend. They don’t always cause the immediate price declines with one exception, during repo driven market, which we are in. Scare off 70% of the buyers with record rates and watch what happens with all this “must sell” inventory, the best auction is the one where you are the only bidder.

There was a comment about getting property taxes reduced if values fall and that is true, you can appeal your tax valuation to the assessor. I believe there is a hitch, when values return, so does the original value even if the rise is higher than the amount permitted by prop 13 because you were given a temporary reduced value as opposed to someone who actually paid that lower amount. I could be wrong but that is my understanding of the valuation appeal having done it in the early/mid 1990’s, that was a alot of cabernet ago, so my memory is fuzzy.

[temeculaguy]

Thanks bear, I like them all except the Shea, and I agree that the deals will be on West side of Butterfield, but I like that side. I think the K hov’s are the nicest but they are also the biggest. On the newer side the repos are just starting, this one came up today at 425k down from 750k, its a 4000 sqft+ whopper but it is ones like these that lead me to believe the slightly older and smaller ones are doomed

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/34088-Amici-St-92592/home/6644163

DW, the appraisals on that one are closer to each other and all off by almost 200k. Those appraisal sites use recent data, unfortunatley they think the definition of “recent” is a year. They need to change their parameters to something akin to the shelf life of milk in order to get an accurate snapshot of of the meltdown. Houses like these have lost over 300k in 24 months, close to 10-15k a month, or $500 a day, get an appraisal done on Friday and by Monday it’s off by $1500. I love it when a realtor uses the phrase “recent appraisal,” I interrupt and ask “was the appraisal done in the morning or the afternoon, because if it was done this morning, it may not be recent enough.”

[temeculaguy]

Thanks bear, I like them all except the Shea, and I agree that the deals will be on West side of Butterfield, but I like that side. I think the K hov’s are the nicest but they are also the biggest. On the newer side the repos are just starting, this one came up today at 425k down from 750k, its a 4000 sqft+ whopper but it is ones like these that lead me to believe the slightly older and smaller ones are doomed

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/34088-Amici-St-92592/home/6644163

DW, the appraisals on that one are closer to each other and all off by almost 200k. Those appraisal sites use recent data, unfortunatley they think the definition of “recent” is a year. They need to change their parameters to something akin to the shelf life of milk in order to get an accurate snapshot of of the meltdown. Houses like these have lost over 300k in 24 months, close to 10-15k a month, or $500 a day, get an appraisal done on Friday and by Monday it’s off by $1500. I love it when a realtor uses the phrase “recent appraisal,” I interrupt and ask “was the appraisal done in the morning or the afternoon, because if it was done this morning, it may not be recent enough.”

[temeculaguy]

Thanks bear, I like them all except the Shea, and I agree that the deals will be on West side of Butterfield, but I like that side. I think the K hov’s are the nicest but they are also the biggest. On the newer side the repos are just starting, this one came up today at 425k down from 750k, its a 4000 sqft+ whopper but it is ones like these that lead me to believe the slightly older and smaller ones are doomed

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/34088-Amici-St-92592/home/6644163

DW, the appraisals on that one are closer to each other and all off by almost 200k. Those appraisal sites use recent data, unfortunatley they think the definition of “recent” is a year. They need to change their parameters to something akin to the shelf life of milk in order to get an accurate snapshot of of the meltdown. Houses like these have lost over 300k in 24 months, close to 10-15k a month, or $500 a day, get an appraisal done on Friday and by Monday it’s off by $1500. I love it when a realtor uses the phrase “recent appraisal,” I interrupt and ask “was the appraisal done in the morning or the afternoon, because if it was done this morning, it may not be recent enough.”

[temeculaguy]

Thanks bear, I like them all except the Shea, and I agree that the deals will be on West side of Butterfield, but I like that side. I think the K hov’s are the nicest but they are also the biggest. On the newer side the repos are just starting, this one came up today at 425k down from 750k, its a 4000 sqft+ whopper but it is ones like these that lead me to believe the slightly older and smaller ones are doomed

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/34088-Amici-St-92592/home/6644163

DW, the appraisals on that one are closer to each other and all off by almost 200k. Those appraisal sites use recent data, unfortunatley they think the definition of “recent” is a year. They need to change their parameters to something akin to the shelf life of milk in order to get an accurate snapshot of of the meltdown. Houses like these have lost over 300k in 24 months, close to 10-15k a month, or $500 a day, get an appraisal done on Friday and by Monday it’s off by $1500. I love it when a realtor uses the phrase “recent appraisal,” I interrupt and ask “was the appraisal done in the morning or the afternoon, because if it was done this morning, it may not be recent enough.”

[temeculaguy]

Thanks bear, I like them all except the Shea, and I agree that the deals will be on West side of Butterfield, but I like that side. I think the K hov’s are the nicest but they are also the biggest. On the newer side the repos are just starting, this one came up today at 425k down from 750k, its a 4000 sqft+ whopper but it is ones like these that lead me to believe the slightly older and smaller ones are doomed

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/34088-Amici-St-92592/home/6644163

DW, the appraisals on that one are closer to each other and all off by almost 200k. Those appraisal sites use recent data, unfortunatley they think the definition of “recent” is a year. They need to change their parameters to something akin to the shelf life of milk in order to get an accurate snapshot of of the meltdown. Houses like these have lost over 300k in 24 months, close to 10-15k a month, or $500 a day, get an appraisal done on Friday and by Monday it’s off by $1500. I love it when a realtor uses the phrase “recent appraisal,” I interrupt and ask “was the appraisal done in the morning or the afternoon, because if it was done this morning, it may not be recent enough.”

[temeculaguy]

bear, I’d say you described me and my strategy exactly but I agreed earlier in the thread to stop bragging.

I’m actually holding out for more, I want sub 300k, you once predicted a possibility of $75 a square in Morgan, we are seeing that just outside it’s boundaries so it’s very likely I can catch a 2900 sq fter for 260 or 270, there are a few right now at 320-350, so my goal is attainable, possibly this winter, i think. With those numbers i’d feel safer that I caught a butterknife. For two years i’ve only looked at about four tracts in Redhawk and two in Wolf on the Southern side by the sports park, but with the constant fall in prices, The HOA and Taxes of Morgan don’t sting as bad.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/33866-Calafia-St-92592/home/6570357

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/44709-Mumm-St-92592/home/6570489

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/44932-Dolce-St-92592/home/6570607

My one problem is that I never really looked seriously at Morgan when they were new, only toured maybe one or two of the models so I am not even sure who built what or what the floorplans were like. I don’t want to tour them with a realtor so it’s hard to develop intel, I’m hitting open houses these days to get a feel for it. I still debate it because most of the houses are around 3000 sq ft and up and I’d prefer 2300-2600. The 2900’s I linked are that absolute largest I’d entertain but sub 300k, I’ll just close off some rooms, duct tape the vent and pretend.

[Author]

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