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temeculaguy
ParticipantI agree with paramount’s experience, the buying frenzy is on like donky kong up here. I think Nor’s opinion of it now being similar to “midwest pricing” and appealing to retirees, I see a lot of them at the open houses, exactly what he refers to, the “pre-retirees” in their fifties and sixties, buying nice places in the 2’s and 3’s near wineries and golf. There is a lot to be said about that as a demographic, many early retirees are looking for the ability to pay cash while being within driving range of grandchildren.
As far as the REO’s, I am definately going to buy this fall, I am seeing the next pricing chunk, despite the frenzy and I have seen some examples of the frenzy waning. Just saw a bunch of new listings, shorts and reo’s start out at sub 100 a square for medium sized places, not mcmansions, soething we haven’t seen in a while. I am also seeing 1996 price examples, 1700 sq for 170k, 2200 sq for 220k, etc. and they are in nice tracts. It was one thing to see 3500 sq for 350k, but to see smaller places for a $100 is beyond what I ever expected. We are about to over arch, overcorrect if you will. I’m glad I was outbid last month.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31554-Via-San-Carlos-92592/home/6251125
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45212-Corte-Palmito-92592/home/6252317
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31780-Loma-Linda-92592/home/6251394
Just a few of the new listings this weekend, the popcorn is popping hard, all are penciling out below rent, all below 250k list for decent sfr fixers.
$1265 is the P&I on 200k loan for a house of 250k (with 20% down, 50k), $1500 is rent for a townhouse here, $884 is the P&I on the cheapest one I linked with 20% (35k) and it would rent for $1500 easily.
I’ve been thinking about the future of the valley because of these prices and despite all of the fears of economic meltdown, if the rest of the state followed the Temecula model it would be the best thing that ever happened economically. Retirees wouldn’t leave with their money, families would have lots of disposable income, young couples could actually buy and have kids, mom’s could stay home. Those three houses feed into a 800 api school. Why are our leaders trying to fight the correction in housing, they should be rolling out the red carpet and ushering in the next phase, where people have more than half of their income available to feed economic growth.
ParticipantI agree with paramount’s experience, the buying frenzy is on like donky kong up here. I think Nor’s opinion of it now being similar to “midwest pricing” and appealing to retirees, I see a lot of them at the open houses, exactly what he refers to, the “pre-retirees” in their fifties and sixties, buying nice places in the 2’s and 3’s near wineries and golf. There is a lot to be said about that as a demographic, many early retirees are looking for the ability to pay cash while being within driving range of grandchildren.
As far as the REO’s, I am definately going to buy this fall, I am seeing the next pricing chunk, despite the frenzy and I have seen some examples of the frenzy waning. Just saw a bunch of new listings, shorts and reo’s start out at sub 100 a square for medium sized places, not mcmansions, soething we haven’t seen in a while. I am also seeing 1996 price examples, 1700 sq for 170k, 2200 sq for 220k, etc. and they are in nice tracts. It was one thing to see 3500 sq for 350k, but to see smaller places for a $100 is beyond what I ever expected. We are about to over arch, overcorrect if you will. I’m glad I was outbid last month.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31554-Via-San-Carlos-92592/home/6251125
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45212-Corte-Palmito-92592/home/6252317
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31780-Loma-Linda-92592/home/6251394
Just a few of the new listings this weekend, the popcorn is popping hard, all are penciling out below rent, all below 250k list for decent sfr fixers.
$1265 is the P&I on 200k loan for a house of 250k (with 20% down, 50k), $1500 is rent for a townhouse here, $884 is the P&I on the cheapest one I linked with 20% (35k) and it would rent for $1500 easily.
I’ve been thinking about the future of the valley because of these prices and despite all of the fears of economic meltdown, if the rest of the state followed the Temecula model it would be the best thing that ever happened economically. Retirees wouldn’t leave with their money, families would have lots of disposable income, young couples could actually buy and have kids, mom’s could stay home. Those three houses feed into a 800 api school. Why are our leaders trying to fight the correction in housing, they should be rolling out the red carpet and ushering in the next phase, where people have more than half of their income available to feed economic growth.
ParticipantI agree with paramount’s experience, the buying frenzy is on like donky kong up here. I think Nor’s opinion of it now being similar to “midwest pricing” and appealing to retirees, I see a lot of them at the open houses, exactly what he refers to, the “pre-retirees” in their fifties and sixties, buying nice places in the 2’s and 3’s near wineries and golf. There is a lot to be said about that as a demographic, many early retirees are looking for the ability to pay cash while being within driving range of grandchildren.
As far as the REO’s, I am definately going to buy this fall, I am seeing the next pricing chunk, despite the frenzy and I have seen some examples of the frenzy waning. Just saw a bunch of new listings, shorts and reo’s start out at sub 100 a square for medium sized places, not mcmansions, soething we haven’t seen in a while. I am also seeing 1996 price examples, 1700 sq for 170k, 2200 sq for 220k, etc. and they are in nice tracts. It was one thing to see 3500 sq for 350k, but to see smaller places for a $100 is beyond what I ever expected. We are about to over arch, overcorrect if you will. I’m glad I was outbid last month.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31554-Via-San-Carlos-92592/home/6251125
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45212-Corte-Palmito-92592/home/6252317
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31780-Loma-Linda-92592/home/6251394
Just a few of the new listings this weekend, the popcorn is popping hard, all are penciling out below rent, all below 250k list for decent sfr fixers.
$1265 is the P&I on 200k loan for a house of 250k (with 20% down, 50k), $1500 is rent for a townhouse here, $884 is the P&I on the cheapest one I linked with 20% (35k) and it would rent for $1500 easily.
I’ve been thinking about the future of the valley because of these prices and despite all of the fears of economic meltdown, if the rest of the state followed the Temecula model it would be the best thing that ever happened economically. Retirees wouldn’t leave with their money, families would have lots of disposable income, young couples could actually buy and have kids, mom’s could stay home. Those three houses feed into a 800 api school. Why are our leaders trying to fight the correction in housing, they should be rolling out the red carpet and ushering in the next phase, where people have more than half of their income available to feed economic growth.
Participantpat, it isn’t what you value higher, it is what the buyers value higher.
But that aside, I listed close to a dozen houses and sales, I’m sure a few have variables. The one directly behind you that you share your back fence with, is bigger, has a pool and is 40k cheaper. If it sold, what did it sell for? My guess is that is your best comp, price a tad below their closed sales price and you will have found your market. Price above and all you have is a decorative sign out front.
Some of the mapping data is incorrect, it always is. If your house was in my zip code I could tell you the price in ten seconds, but it’s not. The point is that a data search of closed sales within a mile of your home, even if a few are errors, does not support a listing price over $100 a square.
I do think it is a cool little town, some of the architecure is nice, I just think you are overpriced for your market. If it sells great, if in 90 days you are still sitting there or if in 30 days nobody comes and views your home, then reprice. What does your realtor think? It has been 50 days, have you had any offers? The whole spring selling season went by without a sale so something is wrong.
Participantpat, it isn’t what you value higher, it is what the buyers value higher.
But that aside, I listed close to a dozen houses and sales, I’m sure a few have variables. The one directly behind you that you share your back fence with, is bigger, has a pool and is 40k cheaper. If it sold, what did it sell for? My guess is that is your best comp, price a tad below their closed sales price and you will have found your market. Price above and all you have is a decorative sign out front.
Some of the mapping data is incorrect, it always is. If your house was in my zip code I could tell you the price in ten seconds, but it’s not. The point is that a data search of closed sales within a mile of your home, even if a few are errors, does not support a listing price over $100 a square.
I do think it is a cool little town, some of the architecure is nice, I just think you are overpriced for your market. If it sells great, if in 90 days you are still sitting there or if in 30 days nobody comes and views your home, then reprice. What does your realtor think? It has been 50 days, have you had any offers? The whole spring selling season went by without a sale so something is wrong.
Participantpat, it isn’t what you value higher, it is what the buyers value higher.
But that aside, I listed close to a dozen houses and sales, I’m sure a few have variables. The one directly behind you that you share your back fence with, is bigger, has a pool and is 40k cheaper. If it sold, what did it sell for? My guess is that is your best comp, price a tad below their closed sales price and you will have found your market. Price above and all you have is a decorative sign out front.
Some of the mapping data is incorrect, it always is. If your house was in my zip code I could tell you the price in ten seconds, but it’s not. The point is that a data search of closed sales within a mile of your home, even if a few are errors, does not support a listing price over $100 a square.
I do think it is a cool little town, some of the architecure is nice, I just think you are overpriced for your market. If it sells great, if in 90 days you are still sitting there or if in 30 days nobody comes and views your home, then reprice. What does your realtor think? It has been 50 days, have you had any offers? The whole spring selling season went by without a sale so something is wrong.
Participantpat, it isn’t what you value higher, it is what the buyers value higher.
But that aside, I listed close to a dozen houses and sales, I’m sure a few have variables. The one directly behind you that you share your back fence with, is bigger, has a pool and is 40k cheaper. If it sold, what did it sell for? My guess is that is your best comp, price a tad below their closed sales price and you will have found your market. Price above and all you have is a decorative sign out front.
Some of the mapping data is incorrect, it always is. If your house was in my zip code I could tell you the price in ten seconds, but it’s not. The point is that a data search of closed sales within a mile of your home, even if a few are errors, does not support a listing price over $100 a square.
I do think it is a cool little town, some of the architecure is nice, I just think you are overpriced for your market. If it sells great, if in 90 days you are still sitting there or if in 30 days nobody comes and views your home, then reprice. What does your realtor think? It has been 50 days, have you had any offers? The whole spring selling season went by without a sale so something is wrong.
Participantpat, it isn’t what you value higher, it is what the buyers value higher.
But that aside, I listed close to a dozen houses and sales, I’m sure a few have variables. The one directly behind you that you share your back fence with, is bigger, has a pool and is 40k cheaper. If it sold, what did it sell for? My guess is that is your best comp, price a tad below their closed sales price and you will have found your market. Price above and all you have is a decorative sign out front.
Some of the mapping data is incorrect, it always is. If your house was in my zip code I could tell you the price in ten seconds, but it’s not. The point is that a data search of closed sales within a mile of your home, even if a few are errors, does not support a listing price over $100 a square.
I do think it is a cool little town, some of the architecure is nice, I just think you are overpriced for your market. If it sells great, if in 90 days you are still sitting there or if in 30 days nobody comes and views your home, then reprice. What does your realtor think? It has been 50 days, have you had any offers? The whole spring selling season went by without a sale so something is wrong.
ParticipantWe may not know exactly what is going to happen in the future but many of us study a variety of factors, data and history to get a vague idea. On these boards we discuss our vague ideas in search of more data and some clarity. Can anyone predict exactly, ni, can we get fairly close, YES.
Everyone is not a knife catcher, the term applies only to those buying in a falling market and buy too early. It has no applications in a rising market or at market peak. Market peak buyers are called “fb” or “fb’s” an abbreviation of f—ed buyer, and that is generally reserved for those who bought at peak with adjustable low or no down loans in the hopes of selling or refinancing when values went up, they can’t carry the fully amortized payment. Values went down, so now they are f—ed.
I also use the term “butterknife cathers” for those who have seen prices fall within affordability, perhaps they are paying pre 2003 prces and half price compared to peak. People with 20% down and fixed mortgages that they can afford with doc’d income. They are not risking near as much as those paying near peak and they are immune to further declines because their fundamentals don’t require appreciation. Those examples are only in the exurbs and some other areas. 92126 is still in knifecatcher territory.
ParticipantWe may not know exactly what is going to happen in the future but many of us study a variety of factors, data and history to get a vague idea. On these boards we discuss our vague ideas in search of more data and some clarity. Can anyone predict exactly, ni, can we get fairly close, YES.
Everyone is not a knife catcher, the term applies only to those buying in a falling market and buy too early. It has no applications in a rising market or at market peak. Market peak buyers are called “fb” or “fb’s” an abbreviation of f—ed buyer, and that is generally reserved for those who bought at peak with adjustable low or no down loans in the hopes of selling or refinancing when values went up, they can’t carry the fully amortized payment. Values went down, so now they are f—ed.
I also use the term “butterknife cathers” for those who have seen prices fall within affordability, perhaps they are paying pre 2003 prces and half price compared to peak. People with 20% down and fixed mortgages that they can afford with doc’d income. They are not risking near as much as those paying near peak and they are immune to further declines because their fundamentals don’t require appreciation. Those examples are only in the exurbs and some other areas. 92126 is still in knifecatcher territory.
ParticipantWe may not know exactly what is going to happen in the future but many of us study a variety of factors, data and history to get a vague idea. On these boards we discuss our vague ideas in search of more data and some clarity. Can anyone predict exactly, ni, can we get fairly close, YES.
Everyone is not a knife catcher, the term applies only to those buying in a falling market and buy too early. It has no applications in a rising market or at market peak. Market peak buyers are called “fb” or “fb’s” an abbreviation of f—ed buyer, and that is generally reserved for those who bought at peak with adjustable low or no down loans in the hopes of selling or refinancing when values went up, they can’t carry the fully amortized payment. Values went down, so now they are f—ed.
I also use the term “butterknife cathers” for those who have seen prices fall within affordability, perhaps they are paying pre 2003 prces and half price compared to peak. People with 20% down and fixed mortgages that they can afford with doc’d income. They are not risking near as much as those paying near peak and they are immune to further declines because their fundamentals don’t require appreciation. Those examples are only in the exurbs and some other areas. 92126 is still in knifecatcher territory.
ParticipantWe may not know exactly what is going to happen in the future but many of us study a variety of factors, data and history to get a vague idea. On these boards we discuss our vague ideas in search of more data and some clarity. Can anyone predict exactly, ni, can we get fairly close, YES.
Everyone is not a knife catcher, the term applies only to those buying in a falling market and buy too early. It has no applications in a rising market or at market peak. Market peak buyers are called “fb” or “fb’s” an abbreviation of f—ed buyer, and that is generally reserved for those who bought at peak with adjustable low or no down loans in the hopes of selling or refinancing when values went up, they can’t carry the fully amortized payment. Values went down, so now they are f—ed.
I also use the term “butterknife cathers” for those who have seen prices fall within affordability, perhaps they are paying pre 2003 prces and half price compared to peak. People with 20% down and fixed mortgages that they can afford with doc’d income. They are not risking near as much as those paying near peak and they are immune to further declines because their fundamentals don’t require appreciation. Those examples are only in the exurbs and some other areas. 92126 is still in knifecatcher territory.
ParticipantWe may not know exactly what is going to happen in the future but many of us study a variety of factors, data and history to get a vague idea. On these boards we discuss our vague ideas in search of more data and some clarity. Can anyone predict exactly, ni, can we get fairly close, YES.
Everyone is not a knife catcher, the term applies only to those buying in a falling market and buy too early. It has no applications in a rising market or at market peak. Market peak buyers are called “fb” or “fb’s” an abbreviation of f—ed buyer, and that is generally reserved for those who bought at peak with adjustable low or no down loans in the hopes of selling or refinancing when values went up, they can’t carry the fully amortized payment. Values went down, so now they are f—ed.
I also use the term “butterknife cathers” for those who have seen prices fall within affordability, perhaps they are paying pre 2003 prces and half price compared to peak. People with 20% down and fixed mortgages that they can afford with doc’d income. They are not risking near as much as those paying near peak and they are immune to further declines because their fundamentals don’t require appreciation. Those examples are only in the exurbs and some other areas. 92126 is still in knifecatcher territory.
ParticipantI ran your comps, I wish you luck but I am going to make my guess at 225K. Your zestimate is 197-250, but that’s not where my opinion comes from. This goes back for one year of sales withing one mile of your house and i only included 2000-3000 sq ft since yours falls in the middle. They are in order of sq ft.
Here is a legend for the following data
address
sales price/sales date/ br/ba
sq ft/ lot size/ year built/ price per sq ft1301 Brookhaven Blvd
$135,000 12/20/07 3 2.5 2,050 12,715 1963 $974214 Briarcrest Dr
$180,000 08/31/07 4 3 2,248 11,875 1973 $801508 Barwick Dr
$205,000 12/04/07 3 2.5 2,300 10,823 1969 $894209 Briarcrest Dr
$160,000 11/19/07 4 3 2,304 11,875 1973 $694307 Briarcrest Dr
$203,000 08/28/07 4 4 2,326 11,875 1973 $87Burlington Pl
$180,000 10/15/07 4 2 2,416 12,180 1969 $741912 Guilford Ct
$297,500 01/10/08 4 3 2,475 20,473 1993 $1204102 Northhampton Dr
$245,000 05/23/08 5 3.5 2,848 15,521 1979 $86As you can see, only one house sold for more than $100 a square and it had a lot twice the average size and the size of yours (and it was 8 months ago). None of these are listed or had photos but this is how you figure comps, on sales price, not listed price. Some probably were not great inside but I can’t imagine every 2-3k sq ft home within a mile of you sold in the last year was thrashed, some had to be nice, yet only 1 got more than 100 a square.
I hope you get what you are asking but if it sits another few months, take a look at houses within a mile, from a buyers perspective. I did and I found some nice ones for less or some for the same price that were very impressive. This one looks just a few hundred yards away, about three streets over. I tried to look within walking distance or in the same school zone and I found some stiff competition. Heres an example.
http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=2145462712
Bigger, newer, you get a 1000 sq ft workshop and a creek, you might also get flooding but how cool is it to get your own creek.
Good luck, I’m not trying to knock you, just offer an opinion from an outsider’s perspective who has no emotional or financial investment in your house.
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