[temeculaguy]

1600 rent is 200-225k in my book for investment properties here, I suppose that same math would be applied elsewhere but without prop 13 protection I might adjust downward. I feel proud of myself, i guessed 225 without knowing the rent, I’m getting pretty good at this stuff.

I’m sticking with 225k for the sake of the betting pool, that’s where it pencils out as a rental and that is where a renter decides to buy. Curiously, that is what I pay in rent and I can buy my place for 200k. I don’t buy it because it doesn’t fit my long term needs but if it did, I would at those numbers and that is where I think the buyers are valuing things right now. How they relate to rent, as opposed to appreciation because we all know that horse is dead for a while.

[temeculaguy]

1600 rent is 200-225k in my book for investment properties here, I suppose that same math would be applied elsewhere but without prop 13 protection I might adjust downward. I feel proud of myself, i guessed 225 without knowing the rent, I’m getting pretty good at this stuff.

I’m sticking with 225k for the sake of the betting pool, that’s where it pencils out as a rental and that is where a renter decides to buy. Curiously, that is what I pay in rent and I can buy my place for 200k. I don’t buy it because it doesn’t fit my long term needs but if it did, I would at those numbers and that is where I think the buyers are valuing things right now. How they relate to rent, as opposed to appreciation because we all know that horse is dead for a while.

[temeculaguy]

1600 rent is 200-225k in my book for investment properties here, I suppose that same math would be applied elsewhere but without prop 13 protection I might adjust downward. I feel proud of myself, i guessed 225 without knowing the rent, I’m getting pretty good at this stuff.

I’m sticking with 225k for the sake of the betting pool, that’s where it pencils out as a rental and that is where a renter decides to buy. Curiously, that is what I pay in rent and I can buy my place for 200k. I don’t buy it because it doesn’t fit my long term needs but if it did, I would at those numbers and that is where I think the buyers are valuing things right now. How they relate to rent, as opposed to appreciation because we all know that horse is dead for a while.

[temeculaguy]

1600 rent is 200-225k in my book for investment properties here, I suppose that same math would be applied elsewhere but without prop 13 protection I might adjust downward. I feel proud of myself, i guessed 225 without knowing the rent, I’m getting pretty good at this stuff.

I’m sticking with 225k for the sake of the betting pool, that’s where it pencils out as a rental and that is where a renter decides to buy. Curiously, that is what I pay in rent and I can buy my place for 200k. I don’t buy it because it doesn’t fit my long term needs but if it did, I would at those numbers and that is where I think the buyers are valuing things right now. How they relate to rent, as opposed to appreciation because we all know that horse is dead for a while.

[temeculaguy]

Fixing the latch after the horses are already out of the barn.

[temeculaguy]

Fixing the latch after the horses are already out of the barn.

[temeculaguy]

Fixing the latch after the horses are already out of the barn.

[temeculaguy]

Fixing the latch after the horses are already out of the barn.

[temeculaguy]

Fixing the latch after the horses are already out of the barn.

[temeculaguy]

paramount, there are a bunch of wolf creek listings at exactly 300k, so many it’s comical actually. It seems that is the only price they know. However 100 a square hasn’t hit anything but the whoppers, it will.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31913-Penguin-Pl-92592/home/6645625

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45675-Pheasant-Pl-92592/home/6645309

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45530-Hawk-Ct-92592/home/6645633

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45549-Jaguar-Way-92592/home/6645666

They are all about 2500-2700 sg ft so they are all over 100 a square and have 2 car garages. They are also all on the North side of wolf valley where the repos started fisrt because they are older by a year. I know you like redwood, saw a beauty list for 399 and go away and this monster just reduced to 425 on a short

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/32243-Fireside-Dr-92592/home/12270034

One story homes seem to be falling as well in ppsf, something that is pretty recent.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45646-Seagull-Way-92592/home/6645225

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31998-LODGE-HOUSE-Ct-92592/home/16901861

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31205-Sweetgum-Pl-92592/home/6644983

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31229-Sweetgum-Pl-92592/home/6644977

The builders are way behind, they are priced 20-30% over repos in their own tracts, I’m fearful that they are going to start folding their tents this fall, I think the building costs may be higher than the market price.

[temeculaguy]

paramount, there are a bunch of wolf creek listings at exactly 300k, so many it’s comical actually. It seems that is the only price they know. However 100 a square hasn’t hit anything but the whoppers, it will.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31913-Penguin-Pl-92592/home/6645625

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45675-Pheasant-Pl-92592/home/6645309

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45530-Hawk-Ct-92592/home/6645633

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45549-Jaguar-Way-92592/home/6645666

They are all about 2500-2700 sg ft so they are all over 100 a square and have 2 car garages. They are also all on the North side of wolf valley where the repos started fisrt because they are older by a year. I know you like redwood, saw a beauty list for 399 and go away and this monster just reduced to 425 on a short

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/32243-Fireside-Dr-92592/home/12270034

One story homes seem to be falling as well in ppsf, something that is pretty recent.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45646-Seagull-Way-92592/home/6645225

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31998-LODGE-HOUSE-Ct-92592/home/16901861

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31205-Sweetgum-Pl-92592/home/6644983

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31229-Sweetgum-Pl-92592/home/6644977

The builders are way behind, they are priced 20-30% over repos in their own tracts, I’m fearful that they are going to start folding their tents this fall, I think the building costs may be higher than the market price.

[temeculaguy]

paramount, there are a bunch of wolf creek listings at exactly 300k, so many it’s comical actually. It seems that is the only price they know. However 100 a square hasn’t hit anything but the whoppers, it will.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31913-Penguin-Pl-92592/home/6645625

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45675-Pheasant-Pl-92592/home/6645309

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45530-Hawk-Ct-92592/home/6645633

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45549-Jaguar-Way-92592/home/6645666

They are all about 2500-2700 sg ft so they are all over 100 a square and have 2 car garages. They are also all on the North side of wolf valley where the repos started fisrt because they are older by a year. I know you like redwood, saw a beauty list for 399 and go away and this monster just reduced to 425 on a short

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/32243-Fireside-Dr-92592/home/12270034

One story homes seem to be falling as well in ppsf, something that is pretty recent.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45646-Seagull-Way-92592/home/6645225

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31998-LODGE-HOUSE-Ct-92592/home/16901861

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31205-Sweetgum-Pl-92592/home/6644983

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31229-Sweetgum-Pl-92592/home/6644977

The builders are way behind, they are priced 20-30% over repos in their own tracts, I’m fearful that they are going to start folding their tents this fall, I think the building costs may be higher than the market price.

[temeculaguy]

paramount, there are a bunch of wolf creek listings at exactly 300k, so many it’s comical actually. It seems that is the only price they know. However 100 a square hasn’t hit anything but the whoppers, it will.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31913-Penguin-Pl-92592/home/6645625

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45675-Pheasant-Pl-92592/home/6645309

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45530-Hawk-Ct-92592/home/6645633

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45549-Jaguar-Way-92592/home/6645666

They are all about 2500-2700 sg ft so they are all over 100 a square and have 2 car garages. They are also all on the North side of wolf valley where the repos started fisrt because they are older by a year. I know you like redwood, saw a beauty list for 399 and go away and this monster just reduced to 425 on a short

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/32243-Fireside-Dr-92592/home/12270034

One story homes seem to be falling as well in ppsf, something that is pretty recent.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45646-Seagull-Way-92592/home/6645225

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31998-LODGE-HOUSE-Ct-92592/home/16901861

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31205-Sweetgum-Pl-92592/home/6644983

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31229-Sweetgum-Pl-92592/home/6644977

The builders are way behind, they are priced 20-30% over repos in their own tracts, I’m fearful that they are going to start folding their tents this fall, I think the building costs may be higher than the market price.

[temeculaguy]

paramount, there are a bunch of wolf creek listings at exactly 300k, so many it’s comical actually. It seems that is the only price they know. However 100 a square hasn’t hit anything but the whoppers, it will.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31913-Penguin-Pl-92592/home/6645625

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45675-Pheasant-Pl-92592/home/6645309

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45530-Hawk-Ct-92592/home/6645633

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45549-Jaguar-Way-92592/home/6645666

They are all about 2500-2700 sg ft so they are all over 100 a square and have 2 car garages. They are also all on the North side of wolf valley where the repos started fisrt because they are older by a year. I know you like redwood, saw a beauty list for 399 and go away and this monster just reduced to 425 on a short

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/32243-Fireside-Dr-92592/home/12270034

One story homes seem to be falling as well in ppsf, something that is pretty recent.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45646-Seagull-Way-92592/home/6645225

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31998-LODGE-HOUSE-Ct-92592/home/16901861

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31205-Sweetgum-Pl-92592/home/6644983

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31229-Sweetgum-Pl-92592/home/6644977

The builders are way behind, they are priced 20-30% over repos in their own tracts, I’m fearful that they are going to start folding their tents this fall, I think the building costs may be higher than the market price.

[temeculaguy]

I agree with paramount’s experience, the buying frenzy is on like donky kong up here. I think Nor’s opinion of it now being similar to “midwest pricing” and appealing to retirees, I see a lot of them at the open houses, exactly what he refers to, the “pre-retirees” in their fifties and sixties, buying nice places in the 2’s and 3’s near wineries and golf. There is a lot to be said about that as a demographic, many early retirees are looking for the ability to pay cash while being within driving range of grandchildren.

As far as the REO’s, I am definately going to buy this fall, I am seeing the next pricing chunk, despite the frenzy and I have seen some examples of the frenzy waning. Just saw a bunch of new listings, shorts and reo’s start out at sub 100 a square for medium sized places, not mcmansions, soething we haven’t seen in a while. I am also seeing 1996 price examples, 1700 sq for 170k, 2200 sq for 220k, etc. and they are in nice tracts. It was one thing to see 3500 sq for 350k, but to see smaller places for a $100 is beyond what I ever expected. We are about to over arch, overcorrect if you will. I’m glad I was outbid last month.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31554-Via-San-Carlos-92592/home/6251125

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45212-Corte-Palmito-92592/home/6252317

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31780-Loma-Linda-92592/home/6251394

Just a few of the new listings this weekend, the popcorn is popping hard, all are penciling out below rent, all below 250k list for decent sfr fixers.

$1265 is the P&I on 200k loan for a house of 250k (with 20% down, 50k), $1500 is rent for a townhouse here, $884 is the P&I on the cheapest one I linked with 20% (35k) and it would rent for $1500 easily.

I’ve been thinking about the future of the valley because of these prices and despite all of the fears of economic meltdown, if the rest of the state followed the Temecula model it would be the best thing that ever happened economically. Retirees wouldn’t leave with their money, families would have lots of disposable income, young couples could actually buy and have kids, mom’s could stay home. Those three houses feed into a 800 api school. Why are our leaders trying to fight the correction in housing, they should be rolling out the red carpet and ushering in the next phase, where people have more than half of their income available to feed economic growth.

[Author]

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