[temeculaguy]

Pizza, well done. You moved to another level of home for free. You could have bought back your old house for half it’s price as well but you had a goal, timed the market and got a ranch in trade for your tract home.

It is a butterknife catch at worst.

If a carmel valley resident had done the same using the same numbers they would throw a parade. If a cv player sold their condo for 470 and bought a 1 mil pad for what they sold for, they would have effectively done the same, the location and specifics are irrelevent, it’s purely a mathematical success. How would you have felt if you had never sold, if you were sitting in your 470k house, now worth 270k. You are a reverse flipper success story and I raise my glass to you, good luck old friend.

[temeculaguy]

Pizza, well done. You moved to another level of home for free. You could have bought back your old house for half it’s price as well but you had a goal, timed the market and got a ranch in trade for your tract home.

It is a butterknife catch at worst.

If a carmel valley resident had done the same using the same numbers they would throw a parade. If a cv player sold their condo for 470 and bought a 1 mil pad for what they sold for, they would have effectively done the same, the location and specifics are irrelevent, it’s purely a mathematical success. How would you have felt if you had never sold, if you were sitting in your 470k house, now worth 270k. You are a reverse flipper success story and I raise my glass to you, good luck old friend.

[temeculaguy]

Pizza, well done. You moved to another level of home for free. You could have bought back your old house for half it’s price as well but you had a goal, timed the market and got a ranch in trade for your tract home.

It is a butterknife catch at worst.

If a carmel valley resident had done the same using the same numbers they would throw a parade. If a cv player sold their condo for 470 and bought a 1 mil pad for what they sold for, they would have effectively done the same, the location and specifics are irrelevent, it’s purely a mathematical success. How would you have felt if you had never sold, if you were sitting in your 470k house, now worth 270k. You are a reverse flipper success story and I raise my glass to you, good luck old friend.

[temeculaguy]

Pizza, well done. You moved to another level of home for free. You could have bought back your old house for half it’s price as well but you had a goal, timed the market and got a ranch in trade for your tract home.

It is a butterknife catch at worst.

If a carmel valley resident had done the same using the same numbers they would throw a parade. If a cv player sold their condo for 470 and bought a 1 mil pad for what they sold for, they would have effectively done the same, the location and specifics are irrelevent, it’s purely a mathematical success. How would you have felt if you had never sold, if you were sitting in your 470k house, now worth 270k. You are a reverse flipper success story and I raise my glass to you, good luck old friend.

[temeculaguy]

Thanks for the support Ca renter, i was certain i would incite some bashing with my position. I made some assumptions about pd and the original post. Pd has posted in the past and from those posts I assume he/she works for the public defender’s office or alternate public defenders office, either way 100k is a fair assumption at income, which is a very stable and recession proof job not to mention the pension. A 200k purchase with a down payment puts the mortgage in the 10-20% of income bracket, which is laughable that it would even cause heartache. As long as you think of it as a living expense and not an investment, who cares what the appeciation is since it leaves so much disposable income that other true investments can be pursued.

The other issue I want to address is the fear that low prices will lead to neighborhood collapse. I think this is a flawed argument. I have driven by many of the screaming deals that I didn’t act on and I notice that these buyers of fire sale priced homes have the funds to actually improve these properties and improve the neighborhood. I think the credit crunch is having the reverse effect that people feared. Knuckleheads that have a penchant for yard appliances, monster trucks and free range pit bulls cannot buy at half the price but they could buy in 2005, those that can buy now have more disposable income than their counterparts who bought at peak. The fear that throngs of dirtbags are waiting in the wings to buy at lower prices thus far is unsubstantiated and landscaping, rennovation and improvements are underway at the bargain bought homes. 2008 buyers, or “reset buyers” are the best thing to happen to some of these streets, backyards are going in for the first time in these vintage 2005 properties. Outsiders may view these half priced homes as a potential downward pull on the hood but they are proving to have the opposite effect.

Look at the example we are presented with, will pd bring down the neighborhood or improve it? Don’t ever think that overinflated prices serve as neighborhood insurance, financially undistressed owners is the answer to that problem.

[temeculaguy]

Thanks for the support Ca renter, i was certain i would incite some bashing with my position. I made some assumptions about pd and the original post. Pd has posted in the past and from those posts I assume he/she works for the public defender’s office or alternate public defenders office, either way 100k is a fair assumption at income, which is a very stable and recession proof job not to mention the pension. A 200k purchase with a down payment puts the mortgage in the 10-20% of income bracket, which is laughable that it would even cause heartache. As long as you think of it as a living expense and not an investment, who cares what the appeciation is since it leaves so much disposable income that other true investments can be pursued.

The other issue I want to address is the fear that low prices will lead to neighborhood collapse. I think this is a flawed argument. I have driven by many of the screaming deals that I didn’t act on and I notice that these buyers of fire sale priced homes have the funds to actually improve these properties and improve the neighborhood. I think the credit crunch is having the reverse effect that people feared. Knuckleheads that have a penchant for yard appliances, monster trucks and free range pit bulls cannot buy at half the price but they could buy in 2005, those that can buy now have more disposable income than their counterparts who bought at peak. The fear that throngs of dirtbags are waiting in the wings to buy at lower prices thus far is unsubstantiated and landscaping, rennovation and improvements are underway at the bargain bought homes. 2008 buyers, or “reset buyers” are the best thing to happen to some of these streets, backyards are going in for the first time in these vintage 2005 properties. Outsiders may view these half priced homes as a potential downward pull on the hood but they are proving to have the opposite effect.

Look at the example we are presented with, will pd bring down the neighborhood or improve it? Don’t ever think that overinflated prices serve as neighborhood insurance, financially undistressed owners is the answer to that problem.

[temeculaguy]

Thanks for the support Ca renter, i was certain i would incite some bashing with my position. I made some assumptions about pd and the original post. Pd has posted in the past and from those posts I assume he/she works for the public defender’s office or alternate public defenders office, either way 100k is a fair assumption at income, which is a very stable and recession proof job not to mention the pension. A 200k purchase with a down payment puts the mortgage in the 10-20% of income bracket, which is laughable that it would even cause heartache. As long as you think of it as a living expense and not an investment, who cares what the appeciation is since it leaves so much disposable income that other true investments can be pursued.

The other issue I want to address is the fear that low prices will lead to neighborhood collapse. I think this is a flawed argument. I have driven by many of the screaming deals that I didn’t act on and I notice that these buyers of fire sale priced homes have the funds to actually improve these properties and improve the neighborhood. I think the credit crunch is having the reverse effect that people feared. Knuckleheads that have a penchant for yard appliances, monster trucks and free range pit bulls cannot buy at half the price but they could buy in 2005, those that can buy now have more disposable income than their counterparts who bought at peak. The fear that throngs of dirtbags are waiting in the wings to buy at lower prices thus far is unsubstantiated and landscaping, rennovation and improvements are underway at the bargain bought homes. 2008 buyers, or “reset buyers” are the best thing to happen to some of these streets, backyards are going in for the first time in these vintage 2005 properties. Outsiders may view these half priced homes as a potential downward pull on the hood but they are proving to have the opposite effect.

Look at the example we are presented with, will pd bring down the neighborhood or improve it? Don’t ever think that overinflated prices serve as neighborhood insurance, financially undistressed owners is the answer to that problem.

[temeculaguy]

Thanks for the support Ca renter, i was certain i would incite some bashing with my position. I made some assumptions about pd and the original post. Pd has posted in the past and from those posts I assume he/she works for the public defender’s office or alternate public defenders office, either way 100k is a fair assumption at income, which is a very stable and recession proof job not to mention the pension. A 200k purchase with a down payment puts the mortgage in the 10-20% of income bracket, which is laughable that it would even cause heartache. As long as you think of it as a living expense and not an investment, who cares what the appeciation is since it leaves so much disposable income that other true investments can be pursued.

The other issue I want to address is the fear that low prices will lead to neighborhood collapse. I think this is a flawed argument. I have driven by many of the screaming deals that I didn’t act on and I notice that these buyers of fire sale priced homes have the funds to actually improve these properties and improve the neighborhood. I think the credit crunch is having the reverse effect that people feared. Knuckleheads that have a penchant for yard appliances, monster trucks and free range pit bulls cannot buy at half the price but they could buy in 2005, those that can buy now have more disposable income than their counterparts who bought at peak. The fear that throngs of dirtbags are waiting in the wings to buy at lower prices thus far is unsubstantiated and landscaping, rennovation and improvements are underway at the bargain bought homes. 2008 buyers, or “reset buyers” are the best thing to happen to some of these streets, backyards are going in for the first time in these vintage 2005 properties. Outsiders may view these half priced homes as a potential downward pull on the hood but they are proving to have the opposite effect.

Look at the example we are presented with, will pd bring down the neighborhood or improve it? Don’t ever think that overinflated prices serve as neighborhood insurance, financially undistressed owners is the answer to that problem.

[temeculaguy]

Thanks for the support Ca renter, i was certain i would incite some bashing with my position. I made some assumptions about pd and the original post. Pd has posted in the past and from those posts I assume he/she works for the public defender’s office or alternate public defenders office, either way 100k is a fair assumption at income, which is a very stable and recession proof job not to mention the pension. A 200k purchase with a down payment puts the mortgage in the 10-20% of income bracket, which is laughable that it would even cause heartache. As long as you think of it as a living expense and not an investment, who cares what the appeciation is since it leaves so much disposable income that other true investments can be pursued.

The other issue I want to address is the fear that low prices will lead to neighborhood collapse. I think this is a flawed argument. I have driven by many of the screaming deals that I didn’t act on and I notice that these buyers of fire sale priced homes have the funds to actually improve these properties and improve the neighborhood. I think the credit crunch is having the reverse effect that people feared. Knuckleheads that have a penchant for yard appliances, monster trucks and free range pit bulls cannot buy at half the price but they could buy in 2005, those that can buy now have more disposable income than their counterparts who bought at peak. The fear that throngs of dirtbags are waiting in the wings to buy at lower prices thus far is unsubstantiated and landscaping, rennovation and improvements are underway at the bargain bought homes. 2008 buyers, or “reset buyers” are the best thing to happen to some of these streets, backyards are going in for the first time in these vintage 2005 properties. Outsiders may view these half priced homes as a potential downward pull on the hood but they are proving to have the opposite effect.

Look at the example we are presented with, will pd bring down the neighborhood or improve it? Don’t ever think that overinflated prices serve as neighborhood insurance, financially undistressed owners is the answer to that problem.

[temeculaguy]

pd, what diego mentioned about the 100x rent multiplier as a floor is good advice. I am in a similar boat and have analyzed it to death. We are coming into a home stretch of sorts, perhaps not the overcorrection phase but the very reason you mentioned you feel like buying is why the fundamentals work. The same was true for the bubble, why that house you like wasn’t worth $200 or $300 a sq ft., you have to ignore the anectodal advice and look at the fundamentals. You can pay 200k for a place you would be happy with and it costs the same or more to rent, do you honestly think that it will soon cost twice the money to rent than to buy? So there’s your answer, it will fluctuate a little above and below rent, take the place you like, take the tax deduction and screw it, count yourself a genius for waiting until now. Nobody can guarantee you appreciation, depreciation or interest rates. If you can easily afford it, it’s time.

I can tell you inventory is not rising in our valley, well priced places are moving quickly, I think another month or two and the competition will thin so we will have a bit more negotiating power. But this 2011 or 2012 stuff is not applicable here, we are ahead of the cycle.

The trouble with taking advice from san diegans is they have an entirely different paradigm. If they make 100k and a nice house is 400-700k, they have some waiting to do. If you make 100k and can buy a nice house for 200-300k, especially 200k like you mentioned, who the hell cares, that’s a freaking car payment. How much sleep should we lose?

[temeculaguy]

pd, what diego mentioned about the 100x rent multiplier as a floor is good advice. I am in a similar boat and have analyzed it to death. We are coming into a home stretch of sorts, perhaps not the overcorrection phase but the very reason you mentioned you feel like buying is why the fundamentals work. The same was true for the bubble, why that house you like wasn’t worth $200 or $300 a sq ft., you have to ignore the anectodal advice and look at the fundamentals. You can pay 200k for a place you would be happy with and it costs the same or more to rent, do you honestly think that it will soon cost twice the money to rent than to buy? So there’s your answer, it will fluctuate a little above and below rent, take the place you like, take the tax deduction and screw it, count yourself a genius for waiting until now. Nobody can guarantee you appreciation, depreciation or interest rates. If you can easily afford it, it’s time.

I can tell you inventory is not rising in our valley, well priced places are moving quickly, I think another month or two and the competition will thin so we will have a bit more negotiating power. But this 2011 or 2012 stuff is not applicable here, we are ahead of the cycle.

The trouble with taking advice from san diegans is they have an entirely different paradigm. If they make 100k and a nice house is 400-700k, they have some waiting to do. If you make 100k and can buy a nice house for 200-300k, especially 200k like you mentioned, who the hell cares, that’s a freaking car payment. How much sleep should we lose?

[temeculaguy]

pd, what diego mentioned about the 100x rent multiplier as a floor is good advice. I am in a similar boat and have analyzed it to death. We are coming into a home stretch of sorts, perhaps not the overcorrection phase but the very reason you mentioned you feel like buying is why the fundamentals work. The same was true for the bubble, why that house you like wasn’t worth $200 or $300 a sq ft., you have to ignore the anectodal advice and look at the fundamentals. You can pay 200k for a place you would be happy with and it costs the same or more to rent, do you honestly think that it will soon cost twice the money to rent than to buy? So there’s your answer, it will fluctuate a little above and below rent, take the place you like, take the tax deduction and screw it, count yourself a genius for waiting until now. Nobody can guarantee you appreciation, depreciation or interest rates. If you can easily afford it, it’s time.

I can tell you inventory is not rising in our valley, well priced places are moving quickly, I think another month or two and the competition will thin so we will have a bit more negotiating power. But this 2011 or 2012 stuff is not applicable here, we are ahead of the cycle.

The trouble with taking advice from san diegans is they have an entirely different paradigm. If they make 100k and a nice house is 400-700k, they have some waiting to do. If you make 100k and can buy a nice house for 200-300k, especially 200k like you mentioned, who the hell cares, that’s a freaking car payment. How much sleep should we lose?

[temeculaguy]

pd, what diego mentioned about the 100x rent multiplier as a floor is good advice. I am in a similar boat and have analyzed it to death. We are coming into a home stretch of sorts, perhaps not the overcorrection phase but the very reason you mentioned you feel like buying is why the fundamentals work. The same was true for the bubble, why that house you like wasn’t worth $200 or $300 a sq ft., you have to ignore the anectodal advice and look at the fundamentals. You can pay 200k for a place you would be happy with and it costs the same or more to rent, do you honestly think that it will soon cost twice the money to rent than to buy? So there’s your answer, it will fluctuate a little above and below rent, take the place you like, take the tax deduction and screw it, count yourself a genius for waiting until now. Nobody can guarantee you appreciation, depreciation or interest rates. If you can easily afford it, it’s time.

I can tell you inventory is not rising in our valley, well priced places are moving quickly, I think another month or two and the competition will thin so we will have a bit more negotiating power. But this 2011 or 2012 stuff is not applicable here, we are ahead of the cycle.

The trouble with taking advice from san diegans is they have an entirely different paradigm. If they make 100k and a nice house is 400-700k, they have some waiting to do. If you make 100k and can buy a nice house for 200-300k, especially 200k like you mentioned, who the hell cares, that’s a freaking car payment. How much sleep should we lose?

[temeculaguy]

pd, what diego mentioned about the 100x rent multiplier as a floor is good advice. I am in a similar boat and have analyzed it to death. We are coming into a home stretch of sorts, perhaps not the overcorrection phase but the very reason you mentioned you feel like buying is why the fundamentals work. The same was true for the bubble, why that house you like wasn’t worth $200 or $300 a sq ft., you have to ignore the anectodal advice and look at the fundamentals. You can pay 200k for a place you would be happy with and it costs the same or more to rent, do you honestly think that it will soon cost twice the money to rent than to buy? So there’s your answer, it will fluctuate a little above and below rent, take the place you like, take the tax deduction and screw it, count yourself a genius for waiting until now. Nobody can guarantee you appreciation, depreciation or interest rates. If you can easily afford it, it’s time.

I can tell you inventory is not rising in our valley, well priced places are moving quickly, I think another month or two and the competition will thin so we will have a bit more negotiating power. But this 2011 or 2012 stuff is not applicable here, we are ahead of the cycle.

The trouble with taking advice from san diegans is they have an entirely different paradigm. If they make 100k and a nice house is 400-700k, they have some waiting to do. If you make 100k and can buy a nice house for 200-300k, especially 200k like you mentioned, who the hell cares, that’s a freaking car payment. How much sleep should we lose?

[temeculaguy]

cricket, do the same math but take out the 300 for hoa. It’s basic but the tax deduction offsets the hoa, taxes and insurance. With out knowing the specifics of the hoa, they are not for profit so you get the 300 back in other ways (pool, painting, landscape, structure fire insurance, trash, water, etc.)

Calculate rent nuetral without hoa, taxes and insurance. In your scenario, if you rent for 1500 and could buy 250k worth of house for 1500 P&I (it’s actually higher at todays rate but I digress), then it is rent nuetral. Equilibrium is within 10%-20% of rent nuetral. When people can buy their place for a couple hundred more than rent, they usually do, that is the floor price. This is taking into account net price after tax deductions. The 100/125/150 rule is for investment purposes, which is another floor for prices.

Of course none of this takes into account the overcorrection that we will experience soon. You should see 100 to 125 scenarios in the coming 24 months, in my hood they are the norm. I can buy a 1500/mo rental for below 200k, sometimes well below but haven’t spotted a pure 100x just yet. I cannot explain why a 1500 rental in rb is 300k while a 1500 rental elsewhere is 200k or less, what I can explain is why that makes rb a bad investment as a rental and logic says that will create downward price pressure. hang in there, pain train is a comin, October 1st is the end of zero down as we know it.

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