[temeculaguy]

peter, it is 2010 in Temecula, The Tsunami came through already, the price movements have already occurred, there may be some more but the bulk are behind us, now the fear for a primary long term house is interest rates.

I won’t argue that housing wont continue to decline all over the country but this question is about a specific area. 2001 prices, more than 50% off peak are commonplace in my valley, sub $100 a square with some larger homes at 80 or 90 a square are approaching building cost and well below replacement cost. New building has stopped. Some condos are now priced at $100 a square and 100x rent multiplier with cash positive on day one. The downside risk has diminished, inventory is falling slightly and nods/nots are down significantly (jury is still out because of the new state law, they may rebound). This only pertains to my zip code, not all of So Cal, and I would be more fearful of areas that have held, than those who have already imploded. I see about another 10% decline over the next six months in my hood, then inflation or higher rates keep things flat. That 10% will come not because of unemployment but because S.D. and O.C. will fall and fall hard, stopping the flow of impatient fence sitters from relocating here and perhaps some reverse migration.

I’ll give you an example, 3/2 1400 sq ft townhouse with a 2 car garage listed for 165k http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/33513-Emerson-Way-92592/unit-C/home/12509148
it was bought new in 2003 for 187k, these were high 300’s at peak with some touching 4. They rent for $1500 right now, vacancies are rare. 3% down fha and the P&I is just under 1k a month, tax and hoa, still under $1500. Figure the tax deduction and it is about 3-400 a month cheaper to buy than to rent, experts may not like that but people do, thats when people buy. So what does bruce norris think this unit’s bottom will be, he doesn’t know, because it’s a micro market, I don’t expect him to understand every micro market. Will it go down to 100k? I seriously doubt it. So the downside risk in my opinion is 10-20k (10%). If someone could show me an 800k carmel valley home selling for 325k that rentd for 3k, I wouldn’t talk them out of it, I’d say you are near bottom, these numbers are exactly the same as that example.

[temeculaguy]

peter, it is 2010 in Temecula, The Tsunami came through already, the price movements have already occurred, there may be some more but the bulk are behind us, now the fear for a primary long term house is interest rates.

I won’t argue that housing wont continue to decline all over the country but this question is about a specific area. 2001 prices, more than 50% off peak are commonplace in my valley, sub $100 a square with some larger homes at 80 or 90 a square are approaching building cost and well below replacement cost. New building has stopped. Some condos are now priced at $100 a square and 100x rent multiplier with cash positive on day one. The downside risk has diminished, inventory is falling slightly and nods/nots are down significantly (jury is still out because of the new state law, they may rebound). This only pertains to my zip code, not all of So Cal, and I would be more fearful of areas that have held, than those who have already imploded. I see about another 10% decline over the next six months in my hood, then inflation or higher rates keep things flat. That 10% will come not because of unemployment but because S.D. and O.C. will fall and fall hard, stopping the flow of impatient fence sitters from relocating here and perhaps some reverse migration.

I’ll give you an example, 3/2 1400 sq ft townhouse with a 2 car garage listed for 165k http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/33513-Emerson-Way-92592/unit-C/home/12509148
it was bought new in 2003 for 187k, these were high 300’s at peak with some touching 4. They rent for $1500 right now, vacancies are rare. 3% down fha and the P&I is just under 1k a month, tax and hoa, still under $1500. Figure the tax deduction and it is about 3-400 a month cheaper to buy than to rent, experts may not like that but people do, thats when people buy. So what does bruce norris think this unit’s bottom will be, he doesn’t know, because it’s a micro market, I don’t expect him to understand every micro market. Will it go down to 100k? I seriously doubt it. So the downside risk in my opinion is 10-20k (10%). If someone could show me an 800k carmel valley home selling for 325k that rentd for 3k, I wouldn’t talk them out of it, I’d say you are near bottom, these numbers are exactly the same as that example.

[temeculaguy]

peter, it is 2010 in Temecula, The Tsunami came through already, the price movements have already occurred, there may be some more but the bulk are behind us, now the fear for a primary long term house is interest rates.

I won’t argue that housing wont continue to decline all over the country but this question is about a specific area. 2001 prices, more than 50% off peak are commonplace in my valley, sub $100 a square with some larger homes at 80 or 90 a square are approaching building cost and well below replacement cost. New building has stopped. Some condos are now priced at $100 a square and 100x rent multiplier with cash positive on day one. The downside risk has diminished, inventory is falling slightly and nods/nots are down significantly (jury is still out because of the new state law, they may rebound). This only pertains to my zip code, not all of So Cal, and I would be more fearful of areas that have held, than those who have already imploded. I see about another 10% decline over the next six months in my hood, then inflation or higher rates keep things flat. That 10% will come not because of unemployment but because S.D. and O.C. will fall and fall hard, stopping the flow of impatient fence sitters from relocating here and perhaps some reverse migration.

I’ll give you an example, 3/2 1400 sq ft townhouse with a 2 car garage listed for 165k http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/33513-Emerson-Way-92592/unit-C/home/12509148
it was bought new in 2003 for 187k, these were high 300’s at peak with some touching 4. They rent for $1500 right now, vacancies are rare. 3% down fha and the P&I is just under 1k a month, tax and hoa, still under $1500. Figure the tax deduction and it is about 3-400 a month cheaper to buy than to rent, experts may not like that but people do, thats when people buy. So what does bruce norris think this unit’s bottom will be, he doesn’t know, because it’s a micro market, I don’t expect him to understand every micro market. Will it go down to 100k? I seriously doubt it. So the downside risk in my opinion is 10-20k (10%). If someone could show me an 800k carmel valley home selling for 325k that rentd for 3k, I wouldn’t talk them out of it, I’d say you are near bottom, these numbers are exactly the same as that example.

[temeculaguy]

peter, it is 2010 in Temecula, The Tsunami came through already, the price movements have already occurred, there may be some more but the bulk are behind us, now the fear for a primary long term house is interest rates.

I won’t argue that housing wont continue to decline all over the country but this question is about a specific area. 2001 prices, more than 50% off peak are commonplace in my valley, sub $100 a square with some larger homes at 80 or 90 a square are approaching building cost and well below replacement cost. New building has stopped. Some condos are now priced at $100 a square and 100x rent multiplier with cash positive on day one. The downside risk has diminished, inventory is falling slightly and nods/nots are down significantly (jury is still out because of the new state law, they may rebound). This only pertains to my zip code, not all of So Cal, and I would be more fearful of areas that have held, than those who have already imploded. I see about another 10% decline over the next six months in my hood, then inflation or higher rates keep things flat. That 10% will come not because of unemployment but because S.D. and O.C. will fall and fall hard, stopping the flow of impatient fence sitters from relocating here and perhaps some reverse migration.

I’ll give you an example, 3/2 1400 sq ft townhouse with a 2 car garage listed for 165k http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/33513-Emerson-Way-92592/unit-C/home/12509148
it was bought new in 2003 for 187k, these were high 300’s at peak with some touching 4. They rent for $1500 right now, vacancies are rare. 3% down fha and the P&I is just under 1k a month, tax and hoa, still under $1500. Figure the tax deduction and it is about 3-400 a month cheaper to buy than to rent, experts may not like that but people do, thats when people buy. So what does bruce norris think this unit’s bottom will be, he doesn’t know, because it’s a micro market, I don’t expect him to understand every micro market. Will it go down to 100k? I seriously doubt it. So the downside risk in my opinion is 10-20k (10%). If someone could show me an 800k carmel valley home selling for 325k that rentd for 3k, I wouldn’t talk them out of it, I’d say you are near bottom, these numbers are exactly the same as that example.

[temeculaguy]

Thanks for the props mortgage3, but TG charges no fees, just like Bill handel doesn’t charge for his saturday morning marginal legal advice on KFI. I am not in a similar boat as I don’t study the semi custom houses on land like they are looking for, so my opinion would be just above average but not spectacular. I will say that semi custom land houses are taking a severe beating and will suffer greatly if CV, RB, 4S and some of the other SD locations along with some O.C. locations with similar demographics begin to fall. Thus far they haven’t but when they do, the gentleman ranches will take their hit. They have taken a pretty sizable hit so far and it is not that unsafe to lock in now if you find what you want.

Let’s talk area, are you going 15 minutes east (glenaoks, wine country, anza) or do want to be in town (los ranchitos, santiago, meadowview), or even westies (de luz, la cresta)? I think we are close to bottom and wouldnt oppose a purchase in those areas right now, weighing the limited amount of properties vs interest rates vs declining gas prices in the near term. The timing might be right but it’s all about the right property, if you find it, can afford it, do it. If you are settling and needing to get a better one later, wait for it. Are you horse people, dirt bike and rv people or wine people? It’s best ot settle amongst your “people.” Each of those communities is in a different place on the timetable. Throw down the particulars and I’ll give my free worthless advice, if it is a particular property and you want to keep it off the boards, [email protected] is always an option, just mention piggington so i dont delete
same offer goes for anyone

[temeculaguy]

Thanks for the props mortgage3, but TG charges no fees, just like Bill handel doesn’t charge for his saturday morning marginal legal advice on KFI. I am not in a similar boat as I don’t study the semi custom houses on land like they are looking for, so my opinion would be just above average but not spectacular. I will say that semi custom land houses are taking a severe beating and will suffer greatly if CV, RB, 4S and some of the other SD locations along with some O.C. locations with similar demographics begin to fall. Thus far they haven’t but when they do, the gentleman ranches will take their hit. They have taken a pretty sizable hit so far and it is not that unsafe to lock in now if you find what you want.

Let’s talk area, are you going 15 minutes east (glenaoks, wine country, anza) or do want to be in town (los ranchitos, santiago, meadowview), or even westies (de luz, la cresta)? I think we are close to bottom and wouldnt oppose a purchase in those areas right now, weighing the limited amount of properties vs interest rates vs declining gas prices in the near term. The timing might be right but it’s all about the right property, if you find it, can afford it, do it. If you are settling and needing to get a better one later, wait for it. Are you horse people, dirt bike and rv people or wine people? It’s best ot settle amongst your “people.” Each of those communities is in a different place on the timetable. Throw down the particulars and I’ll give my free worthless advice, if it is a particular property and you want to keep it off the boards, [email protected] is always an option, just mention piggington so i dont delete
same offer goes for anyone

[temeculaguy]

Thanks for the props mortgage3, but TG charges no fees, just like Bill handel doesn’t charge for his saturday morning marginal legal advice on KFI. I am not in a similar boat as I don’t study the semi custom houses on land like they are looking for, so my opinion would be just above average but not spectacular. I will say that semi custom land houses are taking a severe beating and will suffer greatly if CV, RB, 4S and some of the other SD locations along with some O.C. locations with similar demographics begin to fall. Thus far they haven’t but when they do, the gentleman ranches will take their hit. They have taken a pretty sizable hit so far and it is not that unsafe to lock in now if you find what you want.

Let’s talk area, are you going 15 minutes east (glenaoks, wine country, anza) or do want to be in town (los ranchitos, santiago, meadowview), or even westies (de luz, la cresta)? I think we are close to bottom and wouldnt oppose a purchase in those areas right now, weighing the limited amount of properties vs interest rates vs declining gas prices in the near term. The timing might be right but it’s all about the right property, if you find it, can afford it, do it. If you are settling and needing to get a better one later, wait for it. Are you horse people, dirt bike and rv people or wine people? It’s best ot settle amongst your “people.” Each of those communities is in a different place on the timetable. Throw down the particulars and I’ll give my free worthless advice, if it is a particular property and you want to keep it off the boards, [email protected] is always an option, just mention piggington so i dont delete
same offer goes for anyone

[temeculaguy]

Thanks for the props mortgage3, but TG charges no fees, just like Bill handel doesn’t charge for his saturday morning marginal legal advice on KFI. I am not in a similar boat as I don’t study the semi custom houses on land like they are looking for, so my opinion would be just above average but not spectacular. I will say that semi custom land houses are taking a severe beating and will suffer greatly if CV, RB, 4S and some of the other SD locations along with some O.C. locations with similar demographics begin to fall. Thus far they haven’t but when they do, the gentleman ranches will take their hit. They have taken a pretty sizable hit so far and it is not that unsafe to lock in now if you find what you want.

Let’s talk area, are you going 15 minutes east (glenaoks, wine country, anza) or do want to be in town (los ranchitos, santiago, meadowview), or even westies (de luz, la cresta)? I think we are close to bottom and wouldnt oppose a purchase in those areas right now, weighing the limited amount of properties vs interest rates vs declining gas prices in the near term. The timing might be right but it’s all about the right property, if you find it, can afford it, do it. If you are settling and needing to get a better one later, wait for it. Are you horse people, dirt bike and rv people or wine people? It’s best ot settle amongst your “people.” Each of those communities is in a different place on the timetable. Throw down the particulars and I’ll give my free worthless advice, if it is a particular property and you want to keep it off the boards, [email protected] is always an option, just mention piggington so i dont delete
same offer goes for anyone

[temeculaguy]

Thanks for the props mortgage3, but TG charges no fees, just like Bill handel doesn’t charge for his saturday morning marginal legal advice on KFI. I am not in a similar boat as I don’t study the semi custom houses on land like they are looking for, so my opinion would be just above average but not spectacular. I will say that semi custom land houses are taking a severe beating and will suffer greatly if CV, RB, 4S and some of the other SD locations along with some O.C. locations with similar demographics begin to fall. Thus far they haven’t but when they do, the gentleman ranches will take their hit. They have taken a pretty sizable hit so far and it is not that unsafe to lock in now if you find what you want.

Let’s talk area, are you going 15 minutes east (glenaoks, wine country, anza) or do want to be in town (los ranchitos, santiago, meadowview), or even westies (de luz, la cresta)? I think we are close to bottom and wouldnt oppose a purchase in those areas right now, weighing the limited amount of properties vs interest rates vs declining gas prices in the near term. The timing might be right but it’s all about the right property, if you find it, can afford it, do it. If you are settling and needing to get a better one later, wait for it. Are you horse people, dirt bike and rv people or wine people? It’s best ot settle amongst your “people.” Each of those communities is in a different place on the timetable. Throw down the particulars and I’ll give my free worthless advice, if it is a particular property and you want to keep it off the boards, [email protected] is always an option, just mention piggington so i dont delete
same offer goes for anyone

[temeculaguy]

No, the entire short process is designed to prevent that, you also can’t short to anyone you are related to or know or have ever known or may know. Nice try though.

To protect the bank, they also make sure you list on the mls and they get all offers from the public and have an independant realtor estimate the value to ensure they aren’t getting screwed. Even then, they don’t always approve the short, one of the factors is the seller being able to prove they can’t afford it any longer, they will want more docs than a full doc loan.

[temeculaguy]

No, the entire short process is designed to prevent that, you also can’t short to anyone you are related to or know or have ever known or may know. Nice try though.

To protect the bank, they also make sure you list on the mls and they get all offers from the public and have an independant realtor estimate the value to ensure they aren’t getting screwed. Even then, they don’t always approve the short, one of the factors is the seller being able to prove they can’t afford it any longer, they will want more docs than a full doc loan.

[temeculaguy]

No, the entire short process is designed to prevent that, you also can’t short to anyone you are related to or know or have ever known or may know. Nice try though.

To protect the bank, they also make sure you list on the mls and they get all offers from the public and have an independant realtor estimate the value to ensure they aren’t getting screwed. Even then, they don’t always approve the short, one of the factors is the seller being able to prove they can’t afford it any longer, they will want more docs than a full doc loan.

[temeculaguy]

No, the entire short process is designed to prevent that, you also can’t short to anyone you are related to or know or have ever known or may know. Nice try though.

To protect the bank, they also make sure you list on the mls and they get all offers from the public and have an independant realtor estimate the value to ensure they aren’t getting screwed. Even then, they don’t always approve the short, one of the factors is the seller being able to prove they can’t afford it any longer, they will want more docs than a full doc loan.

[temeculaguy]

No, the entire short process is designed to prevent that, you also can’t short to anyone you are related to or know or have ever known or may know. Nice try though.

To protect the bank, they also make sure you list on the mls and they get all offers from the public and have an independant realtor estimate the value to ensure they aren’t getting screwed. Even then, they don’t always approve the short, one of the factors is the seller being able to prove they can’t afford it any longer, they will want more docs than a full doc loan.

[temeculaguy]

There is a fundamental difference between 2003 and today. That difference is that more than half the american public understands the basics of what happened and the basic terminology. This will never slip by again. We on this site are an extremely small minority, a few years ago, the public in general had no idea what was happening and I found that there were only one or two people in my world who I could have conversation about it with. Today, I can talk to any schmuck sitting next to me in a bar and he can keep up with a conversation about subprime, mbs, cds, alt a, fannie, freddie, etc.

The American people are interested, therefore the mass media is interested and that is why returning to 2003 will not happen anytime soon, no matter who is in office, there is just too much attention being paid right now.

We are just days away from an election and I have not heard any of the 20 or so people I talked totoday mention abortion, gun control, iraq or any of the other things that elections usually bring up. Almost every conversation was financial, including people who previously knew very little about the system. This cat can’t be put back in the bag.

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