[temeculaguy]

peter, koolaid comes in two flavors, bear and bull, don’t drink either. Just plattitudes and cliche’s, still no examples or data. I’ve followed my micro market as much as anyone on the boards or probably the town and I say it is within striking distance right now with 09 being ideal, nobody has made a cogent argument against that, other than generic talking points.

here’s another example

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/44656-LA-PAZ-92592/home/6189254

$82 a square for rental property, 89k for a rental that brings over 1k a month, I’ll concede these are the scuzziest units around but they rent, seen them between 1100 and 1300.

Not that you can get 0 down on rental property but purely for mathematical calculations, 90k at 6.5, 30yr fixed is $586 mo. hoa is $275 taxes are about 1500 yr, as they were 3k based on a much higher purchase price, this place peaked at 270k in early 2006 and was 82k in 1992, out the door today, 1k a month total carry with zero down calculated and rents for that plus a little extra. So if I am finding rent nuetral or rent positive properties i have a hard time accepting the other flavor of koolaid and phrases like “prices are still going down, it’s a depreciating asset.” You can’t find a rent positve property using zero down calculations in carmel valley then those phrases apply to carmel valley, but it doesn’t mean that they apply everywhere.

[temeculaguy]

peter, koolaid comes in two flavors, bear and bull, don’t drink either. Just plattitudes and cliche’s, still no examples or data. I’ve followed my micro market as much as anyone on the boards or probably the town and I say it is within striking distance right now with 09 being ideal, nobody has made a cogent argument against that, other than generic talking points.

here’s another example

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/44656-LA-PAZ-92592/home/6189254

$82 a square for rental property, 89k for a rental that brings over 1k a month, I’ll concede these are the scuzziest units around but they rent, seen them between 1100 and 1300.

Not that you can get 0 down on rental property but purely for mathematical calculations, 90k at 6.5, 30yr fixed is $586 mo. hoa is $275 taxes are about 1500 yr, as they were 3k based on a much higher purchase price, this place peaked at 270k in early 2006 and was 82k in 1992, out the door today, 1k a month total carry with zero down calculated and rents for that plus a little extra. So if I am finding rent nuetral or rent positive properties i have a hard time accepting the other flavor of koolaid and phrases like “prices are still going down, it’s a depreciating asset.” You can’t find a rent positve property using zero down calculations in carmel valley then those phrases apply to carmel valley, but it doesn’t mean that they apply everywhere.

[temeculaguy]

peter, koolaid comes in two flavors, bear and bull, don’t drink either. Just plattitudes and cliche’s, still no examples or data. I’ve followed my micro market as much as anyone on the boards or probably the town and I say it is within striking distance right now with 09 being ideal, nobody has made a cogent argument against that, other than generic talking points.

here’s another example

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/44656-LA-PAZ-92592/home/6189254

$82 a square for rental property, 89k for a rental that brings over 1k a month, I’ll concede these are the scuzziest units around but they rent, seen them between 1100 and 1300.

Not that you can get 0 down on rental property but purely for mathematical calculations, 90k at 6.5, 30yr fixed is $586 mo. hoa is $275 taxes are about 1500 yr, as they were 3k based on a much higher purchase price, this place peaked at 270k in early 2006 and was 82k in 1992, out the door today, 1k a month total carry with zero down calculated and rents for that plus a little extra. So if I am finding rent nuetral or rent positive properties i have a hard time accepting the other flavor of koolaid and phrases like “prices are still going down, it’s a depreciating asset.” You can’t find a rent positve property using zero down calculations in carmel valley then those phrases apply to carmel valley, but it doesn’t mean that they apply everywhere.

[temeculaguy]

peter, koolaid comes in two flavors, bear and bull, don’t drink either. Just plattitudes and cliche’s, still no examples or data. I’ve followed my micro market as much as anyone on the boards or probably the town and I say it is within striking distance right now with 09 being ideal, nobody has made a cogent argument against that, other than generic talking points.

here’s another example

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/44656-LA-PAZ-92592/home/6189254

$82 a square for rental property, 89k for a rental that brings over 1k a month, I’ll concede these are the scuzziest units around but they rent, seen them between 1100 and 1300.

Not that you can get 0 down on rental property but purely for mathematical calculations, 90k at 6.5, 30yr fixed is $586 mo. hoa is $275 taxes are about 1500 yr, as they were 3k based on a much higher purchase price, this place peaked at 270k in early 2006 and was 82k in 1992, out the door today, 1k a month total carry with zero down calculated and rents for that plus a little extra. So if I am finding rent nuetral or rent positive properties i have a hard time accepting the other flavor of koolaid and phrases like “prices are still going down, it’s a depreciating asset.” You can’t find a rent positve property using zero down calculations in carmel valley then those phrases apply to carmel valley, but it doesn’t mean that they apply everywhere.

[temeculaguy]

jet, I never said there are no jobs in this valley, I said that more of the commuters travel South vs North, there was no mention that all temeculans are commuters. I should just ignore your comment/insult because in reality it benefits me to perpetuate the sterotype you cast because i don’t want the competition. Personally there are about 4 school districts in S.D. county I would put my kids in, the rest is crap. I am also from there and but you could pay me to move back, exactly 350k is what it would take, because the neighborhood, schools and people that 300k would buy me here, would cost me 650k at least there. How big was your house in 1999 when you paid 150k? I paid 200k in 1998 for 2400 sq in Redhawk and my income was half what it is today doing the same job so 300k for 3200 sq ft doesn’t seem too far from 1999 prices. I checked i can buy my old house for about 250k. Plus S. Temec is pretty much built out, the building is to the north of temec and the farther north the less desirable but why am i responding, how did I get suckered into the “I wouldn’t live there for free” bullshit for the umpteenth time, you stay in your world and leave me alone in mine.

But this was never the question in the first place, i was asked my opinion and gave it, I think that the majority of the price declines in this valley have happened already as opposed to s.d. which is still overpriced. I have gone head to head with a number of people in an attempt to buy both my primary and rentals and they aren’t dirt people, they aren’t unemployed and they arent even 20% downers, most are coming in with a far larger warchest than I, which is why I am still here, because they will pay more than i think certain houses are worth. Because I want to pay 2009 prices now, more and more it looks like I will have to wait for 2009 prices in 2009, but I can argue the specific fundamentals as to why paying 2009 (same as 2001) prices makes sense and why certain rent multiplier fundamentals make sense in my hood while buying in sd right now does not make sense, you want to have that argument, point out specific errors or flaws in the data, dont make “dirt people” comments, you want to take on TG, ask around, i’ve been here a while, can’t remember ever losing, maybe my time has come and you will be one to knock me off the boards, or maybe you’ll reveal where you live and I’ll make generalizations about the community you love.

It’s probably the wine, maybe you didn’t mean to pick a fight, I should switch back to zoloft before someone gets hurt.

I know what it is that has me on edge, once again it is Norv Turner, blame him, not me, I’m just a victim.

[temeculaguy]

jet, I never said there are no jobs in this valley, I said that more of the commuters travel South vs North, there was no mention that all temeculans are commuters. I should just ignore your comment/insult because in reality it benefits me to perpetuate the sterotype you cast because i don’t want the competition. Personally there are about 4 school districts in S.D. county I would put my kids in, the rest is crap. I am also from there and but you could pay me to move back, exactly 350k is what it would take, because the neighborhood, schools and people that 300k would buy me here, would cost me 650k at least there. How big was your house in 1999 when you paid 150k? I paid 200k in 1998 for 2400 sq in Redhawk and my income was half what it is today doing the same job so 300k for 3200 sq ft doesn’t seem too far from 1999 prices. I checked i can buy my old house for about 250k. Plus S. Temec is pretty much built out, the building is to the north of temec and the farther north the less desirable but why am i responding, how did I get suckered into the “I wouldn’t live there for free” bullshit for the umpteenth time, you stay in your world and leave me alone in mine.

But this was never the question in the first place, i was asked my opinion and gave it, I think that the majority of the price declines in this valley have happened already as opposed to s.d. which is still overpriced. I have gone head to head with a number of people in an attempt to buy both my primary and rentals and they aren’t dirt people, they aren’t unemployed and they arent even 20% downers, most are coming in with a far larger warchest than I, which is why I am still here, because they will pay more than i think certain houses are worth. Because I want to pay 2009 prices now, more and more it looks like I will have to wait for 2009 prices in 2009, but I can argue the specific fundamentals as to why paying 2009 (same as 2001) prices makes sense and why certain rent multiplier fundamentals make sense in my hood while buying in sd right now does not make sense, you want to have that argument, point out specific errors or flaws in the data, dont make “dirt people” comments, you want to take on TG, ask around, i’ve been here a while, can’t remember ever losing, maybe my time has come and you will be one to knock me off the boards, or maybe you’ll reveal where you live and I’ll make generalizations about the community you love.

It’s probably the wine, maybe you didn’t mean to pick a fight, I should switch back to zoloft before someone gets hurt.

I know what it is that has me on edge, once again it is Norv Turner, blame him, not me, I’m just a victim.

[temeculaguy]

jet, I never said there are no jobs in this valley, I said that more of the commuters travel South vs North, there was no mention that all temeculans are commuters. I should just ignore your comment/insult because in reality it benefits me to perpetuate the sterotype you cast because i don’t want the competition. Personally there are about 4 school districts in S.D. county I would put my kids in, the rest is crap. I am also from there and but you could pay me to move back, exactly 350k is what it would take, because the neighborhood, schools and people that 300k would buy me here, would cost me 650k at least there. How big was your house in 1999 when you paid 150k? I paid 200k in 1998 for 2400 sq in Redhawk and my income was half what it is today doing the same job so 300k for 3200 sq ft doesn’t seem too far from 1999 prices. I checked i can buy my old house for about 250k. Plus S. Temec is pretty much built out, the building is to the north of temec and the farther north the less desirable but why am i responding, how did I get suckered into the “I wouldn’t live there for free” bullshit for the umpteenth time, you stay in your world and leave me alone in mine.

But this was never the question in the first place, i was asked my opinion and gave it, I think that the majority of the price declines in this valley have happened already as opposed to s.d. which is still overpriced. I have gone head to head with a number of people in an attempt to buy both my primary and rentals and they aren’t dirt people, they aren’t unemployed and they arent even 20% downers, most are coming in with a far larger warchest than I, which is why I am still here, because they will pay more than i think certain houses are worth. Because I want to pay 2009 prices now, more and more it looks like I will have to wait for 2009 prices in 2009, but I can argue the specific fundamentals as to why paying 2009 (same as 2001) prices makes sense and why certain rent multiplier fundamentals make sense in my hood while buying in sd right now does not make sense, you want to have that argument, point out specific errors or flaws in the data, dont make “dirt people” comments, you want to take on TG, ask around, i’ve been here a while, can’t remember ever losing, maybe my time has come and you will be one to knock me off the boards, or maybe you’ll reveal where you live and I’ll make generalizations about the community you love.

It’s probably the wine, maybe you didn’t mean to pick a fight, I should switch back to zoloft before someone gets hurt.

I know what it is that has me on edge, once again it is Norv Turner, blame him, not me, I’m just a victim.

[temeculaguy]

jet, I never said there are no jobs in this valley, I said that more of the commuters travel South vs North, there was no mention that all temeculans are commuters. I should just ignore your comment/insult because in reality it benefits me to perpetuate the sterotype you cast because i don’t want the competition. Personally there are about 4 school districts in S.D. county I would put my kids in, the rest is crap. I am also from there and but you could pay me to move back, exactly 350k is what it would take, because the neighborhood, schools and people that 300k would buy me here, would cost me 650k at least there. How big was your house in 1999 when you paid 150k? I paid 200k in 1998 for 2400 sq in Redhawk and my income was half what it is today doing the same job so 300k for 3200 sq ft doesn’t seem too far from 1999 prices. I checked i can buy my old house for about 250k. Plus S. Temec is pretty much built out, the building is to the north of temec and the farther north the less desirable but why am i responding, how did I get suckered into the “I wouldn’t live there for free” bullshit for the umpteenth time, you stay in your world and leave me alone in mine.

But this was never the question in the first place, i was asked my opinion and gave it, I think that the majority of the price declines in this valley have happened already as opposed to s.d. which is still overpriced. I have gone head to head with a number of people in an attempt to buy both my primary and rentals and they aren’t dirt people, they aren’t unemployed and they arent even 20% downers, most are coming in with a far larger warchest than I, which is why I am still here, because they will pay more than i think certain houses are worth. Because I want to pay 2009 prices now, more and more it looks like I will have to wait for 2009 prices in 2009, but I can argue the specific fundamentals as to why paying 2009 (same as 2001) prices makes sense and why certain rent multiplier fundamentals make sense in my hood while buying in sd right now does not make sense, you want to have that argument, point out specific errors or flaws in the data, dont make “dirt people” comments, you want to take on TG, ask around, i’ve been here a while, can’t remember ever losing, maybe my time has come and you will be one to knock me off the boards, or maybe you’ll reveal where you live and I’ll make generalizations about the community you love.

It’s probably the wine, maybe you didn’t mean to pick a fight, I should switch back to zoloft before someone gets hurt.

I know what it is that has me on edge, once again it is Norv Turner, blame him, not me, I’m just a victim.

[temeculaguy]

jet, I never said there are no jobs in this valley, I said that more of the commuters travel South vs North, there was no mention that all temeculans are commuters. I should just ignore your comment/insult because in reality it benefits me to perpetuate the sterotype you cast because i don’t want the competition. Personally there are about 4 school districts in S.D. county I would put my kids in, the rest is crap. I am also from there and but you could pay me to move back, exactly 350k is what it would take, because the neighborhood, schools and people that 300k would buy me here, would cost me 650k at least there. How big was your house in 1999 when you paid 150k? I paid 200k in 1998 for 2400 sq in Redhawk and my income was half what it is today doing the same job so 300k for 3200 sq ft doesn’t seem too far from 1999 prices. I checked i can buy my old house for about 250k. Plus S. Temec is pretty much built out, the building is to the north of temec and the farther north the less desirable but why am i responding, how did I get suckered into the “I wouldn’t live there for free” bullshit for the umpteenth time, you stay in your world and leave me alone in mine.

But this was never the question in the first place, i was asked my opinion and gave it, I think that the majority of the price declines in this valley have happened already as opposed to s.d. which is still overpriced. I have gone head to head with a number of people in an attempt to buy both my primary and rentals and they aren’t dirt people, they aren’t unemployed and they arent even 20% downers, most are coming in with a far larger warchest than I, which is why I am still here, because they will pay more than i think certain houses are worth. Because I want to pay 2009 prices now, more and more it looks like I will have to wait for 2009 prices in 2009, but I can argue the specific fundamentals as to why paying 2009 (same as 2001) prices makes sense and why certain rent multiplier fundamentals make sense in my hood while buying in sd right now does not make sense, you want to have that argument, point out specific errors or flaws in the data, dont make “dirt people” comments, you want to take on TG, ask around, i’ve been here a while, can’t remember ever losing, maybe my time has come and you will be one to knock me off the boards, or maybe you’ll reveal where you live and I’ll make generalizations about the community you love.

It’s probably the wine, maybe you didn’t mean to pick a fight, I should switch back to zoloft before someone gets hurt.

I know what it is that has me on edge, once again it is Norv Turner, blame him, not me, I’m just a victim.

[temeculaguy]

Responses in reverse order.

sdbear, I agree with the pressures but you need to address my argument that those are already priced in, and $4 gas that has become $2.90 gas and soon $2 gas has a reverse effect on exurbs, it softens the blow. Foreclosures aren’t getting worse, our foreclosures already peaked, I’ve tracked them daily for 2 years, I need 30 more days to figure out the effects of the state bill that delayed foreclosures before being certain on that.

ralphfurley, good finds, but prices in the valley have always declined as you travel North, a few percent per mile. Schools are great in Murrieta, crime is low, that isn’t the reason. More commuters work South than North, traffic blows on the 215, you get closer to the crappy areas (elsinore, perris, hemet) the further north you go and it get hotter. I like murrieta, at those prices it’s a good deal (but they are shorts so it can be misleading). It wont tank percentage wise any differen than temec, it will just always be a little cheaper and wildomar or french will be cheaper than murrieta and hemet/San jacinto/Elsinore cheaper than those, it’s just the way it is.

The pain train moves south, I used complain that it was frustrating me that it was in murrieta and not temec but eventually it caught up, each subsequent wave, takes a little time but eventually it makes its way south. But it will never be a tie.

scardeycat-you are correct with the strange pricing spread, that is the trouble with pricing customs on land, it is dfficult to figure out comps. Check the zoning, some of places wont allow chickens or have limits, most have an hoa you can contact. I know santiago and ranchitos allow horses but that may be it, i remember a publicized lawsuit with the hoa over a llama someone had. I wish i knew more but i am allergic to land so just check into it before shopping. Just decide you want to pay 300k and dont offer more, if that means waiting, then wait. If the same property for 350 and 500 exist, just visit the 350k and make offers of 300k, avoid the 500’s altogether. You also need to understand the whole water, sewer, private road, taxes, issues that can vary wildly with homes on land. It’s a game of chicken, the market will find you, just maybe not this week, hoping a 350k place will take 300k is reasonable and the average list to sale is 10% below list in our area, so i look at 350k as 320k right off the bat. Those 350k’s will be 300k or 320k at some point, but hoping they will be 175k or 200k isn’t reasonable at any point so if you can get a few acres and a nice house for 300k, I’m not going to talk you out of it, nor will i talk anyone out of $75 a square in murrieta.

[temeculaguy]

Responses in reverse order.

sdbear, I agree with the pressures but you need to address my argument that those are already priced in, and $4 gas that has become $2.90 gas and soon $2 gas has a reverse effect on exurbs, it softens the blow. Foreclosures aren’t getting worse, our foreclosures already peaked, I’ve tracked them daily for 2 years, I need 30 more days to figure out the effects of the state bill that delayed foreclosures before being certain on that.

ralphfurley, good finds, but prices in the valley have always declined as you travel North, a few percent per mile. Schools are great in Murrieta, crime is low, that isn’t the reason. More commuters work South than North, traffic blows on the 215, you get closer to the crappy areas (elsinore, perris, hemet) the further north you go and it get hotter. I like murrieta, at those prices it’s a good deal (but they are shorts so it can be misleading). It wont tank percentage wise any differen than temec, it will just always be a little cheaper and wildomar or french will be cheaper than murrieta and hemet/San jacinto/Elsinore cheaper than those, it’s just the way it is.

The pain train moves south, I used complain that it was frustrating me that it was in murrieta and not temec but eventually it caught up, each subsequent wave, takes a little time but eventually it makes its way south. But it will never be a tie.

scardeycat-you are correct with the strange pricing spread, that is the trouble with pricing customs on land, it is dfficult to figure out comps. Check the zoning, some of places wont allow chickens or have limits, most have an hoa you can contact. I know santiago and ranchitos allow horses but that may be it, i remember a publicized lawsuit with the hoa over a llama someone had. I wish i knew more but i am allergic to land so just check into it before shopping. Just decide you want to pay 300k and dont offer more, if that means waiting, then wait. If the same property for 350 and 500 exist, just visit the 350k and make offers of 300k, avoid the 500’s altogether. You also need to understand the whole water, sewer, private road, taxes, issues that can vary wildly with homes on land. It’s a game of chicken, the market will find you, just maybe not this week, hoping a 350k place will take 300k is reasonable and the average list to sale is 10% below list in our area, so i look at 350k as 320k right off the bat. Those 350k’s will be 300k or 320k at some point, but hoping they will be 175k or 200k isn’t reasonable at any point so if you can get a few acres and a nice house for 300k, I’m not going to talk you out of it, nor will i talk anyone out of $75 a square in murrieta.

[temeculaguy]

Responses in reverse order.

sdbear, I agree with the pressures but you need to address my argument that those are already priced in, and $4 gas that has become $2.90 gas and soon $2 gas has a reverse effect on exurbs, it softens the blow. Foreclosures aren’t getting worse, our foreclosures already peaked, I’ve tracked them daily for 2 years, I need 30 more days to figure out the effects of the state bill that delayed foreclosures before being certain on that.

ralphfurley, good finds, but prices in the valley have always declined as you travel North, a few percent per mile. Schools are great in Murrieta, crime is low, that isn’t the reason. More commuters work South than North, traffic blows on the 215, you get closer to the crappy areas (elsinore, perris, hemet) the further north you go and it get hotter. I like murrieta, at those prices it’s a good deal (but they are shorts so it can be misleading). It wont tank percentage wise any differen than temec, it will just always be a little cheaper and wildomar or french will be cheaper than murrieta and hemet/San jacinto/Elsinore cheaper than those, it’s just the way it is.

The pain train moves south, I used complain that it was frustrating me that it was in murrieta and not temec but eventually it caught up, each subsequent wave, takes a little time but eventually it makes its way south. But it will never be a tie.

scardeycat-you are correct with the strange pricing spread, that is the trouble with pricing customs on land, it is dfficult to figure out comps. Check the zoning, some of places wont allow chickens or have limits, most have an hoa you can contact. I know santiago and ranchitos allow horses but that may be it, i remember a publicized lawsuit with the hoa over a llama someone had. I wish i knew more but i am allergic to land so just check into it before shopping. Just decide you want to pay 300k and dont offer more, if that means waiting, then wait. If the same property for 350 and 500 exist, just visit the 350k and make offers of 300k, avoid the 500’s altogether. You also need to understand the whole water, sewer, private road, taxes, issues that can vary wildly with homes on land. It’s a game of chicken, the market will find you, just maybe not this week, hoping a 350k place will take 300k is reasonable and the average list to sale is 10% below list in our area, so i look at 350k as 320k right off the bat. Those 350k’s will be 300k or 320k at some point, but hoping they will be 175k or 200k isn’t reasonable at any point so if you can get a few acres and a nice house for 300k, I’m not going to talk you out of it, nor will i talk anyone out of $75 a square in murrieta.

[temeculaguy]

Responses in reverse order.

sdbear, I agree with the pressures but you need to address my argument that those are already priced in, and $4 gas that has become $2.90 gas and soon $2 gas has a reverse effect on exurbs, it softens the blow. Foreclosures aren’t getting worse, our foreclosures already peaked, I’ve tracked them daily for 2 years, I need 30 more days to figure out the effects of the state bill that delayed foreclosures before being certain on that.

ralphfurley, good finds, but prices in the valley have always declined as you travel North, a few percent per mile. Schools are great in Murrieta, crime is low, that isn’t the reason. More commuters work South than North, traffic blows on the 215, you get closer to the crappy areas (elsinore, perris, hemet) the further north you go and it get hotter. I like murrieta, at those prices it’s a good deal (but they are shorts so it can be misleading). It wont tank percentage wise any differen than temec, it will just always be a little cheaper and wildomar or french will be cheaper than murrieta and hemet/San jacinto/Elsinore cheaper than those, it’s just the way it is.

The pain train moves south, I used complain that it was frustrating me that it was in murrieta and not temec but eventually it caught up, each subsequent wave, takes a little time but eventually it makes its way south. But it will never be a tie.

scardeycat-you are correct with the strange pricing spread, that is the trouble with pricing customs on land, it is dfficult to figure out comps. Check the zoning, some of places wont allow chickens or have limits, most have an hoa you can contact. I know santiago and ranchitos allow horses but that may be it, i remember a publicized lawsuit with the hoa over a llama someone had. I wish i knew more but i am allergic to land so just check into it before shopping. Just decide you want to pay 300k and dont offer more, if that means waiting, then wait. If the same property for 350 and 500 exist, just visit the 350k and make offers of 300k, avoid the 500’s altogether. You also need to understand the whole water, sewer, private road, taxes, issues that can vary wildly with homes on land. It’s a game of chicken, the market will find you, just maybe not this week, hoping a 350k place will take 300k is reasonable and the average list to sale is 10% below list in our area, so i look at 350k as 320k right off the bat. Those 350k’s will be 300k or 320k at some point, but hoping they will be 175k or 200k isn’t reasonable at any point so if you can get a few acres and a nice house for 300k, I’m not going to talk you out of it, nor will i talk anyone out of $75 a square in murrieta.

[temeculaguy]

Responses in reverse order.

sdbear, I agree with the pressures but you need to address my argument that those are already priced in, and $4 gas that has become $2.90 gas and soon $2 gas has a reverse effect on exurbs, it softens the blow. Foreclosures aren’t getting worse, our foreclosures already peaked, I’ve tracked them daily for 2 years, I need 30 more days to figure out the effects of the state bill that delayed foreclosures before being certain on that.

ralphfurley, good finds, but prices in the valley have always declined as you travel North, a few percent per mile. Schools are great in Murrieta, crime is low, that isn’t the reason. More commuters work South than North, traffic blows on the 215, you get closer to the crappy areas (elsinore, perris, hemet) the further north you go and it get hotter. I like murrieta, at those prices it’s a good deal (but they are shorts so it can be misleading). It wont tank percentage wise any differen than temec, it will just always be a little cheaper and wildomar or french will be cheaper than murrieta and hemet/San jacinto/Elsinore cheaper than those, it’s just the way it is.

The pain train moves south, I used complain that it was frustrating me that it was in murrieta and not temec but eventually it caught up, each subsequent wave, takes a little time but eventually it makes its way south. But it will never be a tie.

scardeycat-you are correct with the strange pricing spread, that is the trouble with pricing customs on land, it is dfficult to figure out comps. Check the zoning, some of places wont allow chickens or have limits, most have an hoa you can contact. I know santiago and ranchitos allow horses but that may be it, i remember a publicized lawsuit with the hoa over a llama someone had. I wish i knew more but i am allergic to land so just check into it before shopping. Just decide you want to pay 300k and dont offer more, if that means waiting, then wait. If the same property for 350 and 500 exist, just visit the 350k and make offers of 300k, avoid the 500’s altogether. You also need to understand the whole water, sewer, private road, taxes, issues that can vary wildly with homes on land. It’s a game of chicken, the market will find you, just maybe not this week, hoping a 350k place will take 300k is reasonable and the average list to sale is 10% below list in our area, so i look at 350k as 320k right off the bat. Those 350k’s will be 300k or 320k at some point, but hoping they will be 175k or 200k isn’t reasonable at any point so if you can get a few acres and a nice house for 300k, I’m not going to talk you out of it, nor will i talk anyone out of $75 a square in murrieta.

[temeculaguy]

peter, it is 2010 in Temecula, The Tsunami came through already, the price movements have already occurred, there may be some more but the bulk are behind us, now the fear for a primary long term house is interest rates.

I won’t argue that housing wont continue to decline all over the country but this question is about a specific area. 2001 prices, more than 50% off peak are commonplace in my valley, sub $100 a square with some larger homes at 80 or 90 a square are approaching building cost and well below replacement cost. New building has stopped. Some condos are now priced at $100 a square and 100x rent multiplier with cash positive on day one. The downside risk has diminished, inventory is falling slightly and nods/nots are down significantly (jury is still out because of the new state law, they may rebound). This only pertains to my zip code, not all of So Cal, and I would be more fearful of areas that have held, than those who have already imploded. I see about another 10% decline over the next six months in my hood, then inflation or higher rates keep things flat. That 10% will come not because of unemployment but because S.D. and O.C. will fall and fall hard, stopping the flow of impatient fence sitters from relocating here and perhaps some reverse migration.

I’ll give you an example, 3/2 1400 sq ft townhouse with a 2 car garage listed for 165k http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/33513-Emerson-Way-92592/unit-C/home/12509148
it was bought new in 2003 for 187k, these were high 300’s at peak with some touching 4. They rent for $1500 right now, vacancies are rare. 3% down fha and the P&I is just under 1k a month, tax and hoa, still under $1500. Figure the tax deduction and it is about 3-400 a month cheaper to buy than to rent, experts may not like that but people do, thats when people buy. So what does bruce norris think this unit’s bottom will be, he doesn’t know, because it’s a micro market, I don’t expect him to understand every micro market. Will it go down to 100k? I seriously doubt it. So the downside risk in my opinion is 10-20k (10%). If someone could show me an 800k carmel valley home selling for 325k that rentd for 3k, I wouldn’t talk them out of it, I’d say you are near bottom, these numbers are exactly the same as that example.

[Author]

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