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temeculaguy
ParticipantNo investment is 100% safe but those bonds are as close as you are going to get. The taxes and bonds on a property do not go away when a house goes into foreclosure, they accrue interest and penalties and must be paid back when the bank sells the house or land, the transfer cannot take place until it is paid in full and if it isn’t paid in full for five years the county will take the property. Nobody is better at making sure it gets paid than the county assesor, mello roos cannot be negotiated down like the value. The ways that you can get screwed out of your investment are things like nuclear war, California falling into the ocean, or anything else that would make the land vanish and become inhabitable forever. The odds are in your favor.
ParticipantNo investment is 100% safe but those bonds are as close as you are going to get. The taxes and bonds on a property do not go away when a house goes into foreclosure, they accrue interest and penalties and must be paid back when the bank sells the house or land, the transfer cannot take place until it is paid in full and if it isn’t paid in full for five years the county will take the property. Nobody is better at making sure it gets paid than the county assesor, mello roos cannot be negotiated down like the value. The ways that you can get screwed out of your investment are things like nuclear war, California falling into the ocean, or anything else that would make the land vanish and become inhabitable forever. The odds are in your favor.
ParticipantNo investment is 100% safe but those bonds are as close as you are going to get. The taxes and bonds on a property do not go away when a house goes into foreclosure, they accrue interest and penalties and must be paid back when the bank sells the house or land, the transfer cannot take place until it is paid in full and if it isn’t paid in full for five years the county will take the property. Nobody is better at making sure it gets paid than the county assesor, mello roos cannot be negotiated down like the value. The ways that you can get screwed out of your investment are things like nuclear war, California falling into the ocean, or anything else that would make the land vanish and become inhabitable forever. The odds are in your favor.
ParticipantNor, I paid a little less than that but it’s ballpark, I’m not moving for at least a decade but you are more than welcome to move into the neighbors house on either side, I think the end is near for both. I need some cool, backyard happy hour type neighbors before summer.
Nostra, one demographic I haven’t seen or met is the get rich folks, the water cooler talk up here no longer contains the word “profit.” People are buying shelter not investments, the reality is they are setting themsleves up for a profit down the line but nobody realizes it. Most people and the media are two years behind reality, in 2006 they thought they’d make a killing and in 2009 they are certain they will lose money. I haven’t seen many investors at all, rarely does a place sell and then go up for rent, I think those folks were flushed out of the market and jumped in in 2007 for the most part. I’m going to wait 6 months to a year to see how my household economics shake out in the new pad and get all the projects done, then I’m going to start collecting rentals in the sub 100x rent multiplier range. It is neither a crap shoot or roulette, it’s card counting at this point, some study and planning and you can take a slight advantage.
ParticipantNor, I paid a little less than that but it’s ballpark, I’m not moving for at least a decade but you are more than welcome to move into the neighbors house on either side, I think the end is near for both. I need some cool, backyard happy hour type neighbors before summer.
Nostra, one demographic I haven’t seen or met is the get rich folks, the water cooler talk up here no longer contains the word “profit.” People are buying shelter not investments, the reality is they are setting themsleves up for a profit down the line but nobody realizes it. Most people and the media are two years behind reality, in 2006 they thought they’d make a killing and in 2009 they are certain they will lose money. I haven’t seen many investors at all, rarely does a place sell and then go up for rent, I think those folks were flushed out of the market and jumped in in 2007 for the most part. I’m going to wait 6 months to a year to see how my household economics shake out in the new pad and get all the projects done, then I’m going to start collecting rentals in the sub 100x rent multiplier range. It is neither a crap shoot or roulette, it’s card counting at this point, some study and planning and you can take a slight advantage.
ParticipantNor, I paid a little less than that but it’s ballpark, I’m not moving for at least a decade but you are more than welcome to move into the neighbors house on either side, I think the end is near for both. I need some cool, backyard happy hour type neighbors before summer.
Nostra, one demographic I haven’t seen or met is the get rich folks, the water cooler talk up here no longer contains the word “profit.” People are buying shelter not investments, the reality is they are setting themsleves up for a profit down the line but nobody realizes it. Most people and the media are two years behind reality, in 2006 they thought they’d make a killing and in 2009 they are certain they will lose money. I haven’t seen many investors at all, rarely does a place sell and then go up for rent, I think those folks were flushed out of the market and jumped in in 2007 for the most part. I’m going to wait 6 months to a year to see how my household economics shake out in the new pad and get all the projects done, then I’m going to start collecting rentals in the sub 100x rent multiplier range. It is neither a crap shoot or roulette, it’s card counting at this point, some study and planning and you can take a slight advantage.
ParticipantNor, I paid a little less than that but it’s ballpark, I’m not moving for at least a decade but you are more than welcome to move into the neighbors house on either side, I think the end is near for both. I need some cool, backyard happy hour type neighbors before summer.
Nostra, one demographic I haven’t seen or met is the get rich folks, the water cooler talk up here no longer contains the word “profit.” People are buying shelter not investments, the reality is they are setting themsleves up for a profit down the line but nobody realizes it. Most people and the media are two years behind reality, in 2006 they thought they’d make a killing and in 2009 they are certain they will lose money. I haven’t seen many investors at all, rarely does a place sell and then go up for rent, I think those folks were flushed out of the market and jumped in in 2007 for the most part. I’m going to wait 6 months to a year to see how my household economics shake out in the new pad and get all the projects done, then I’m going to start collecting rentals in the sub 100x rent multiplier range. It is neither a crap shoot or roulette, it’s card counting at this point, some study and planning and you can take a slight advantage.
ParticipantNor, I paid a little less than that but it’s ballpark, I’m not moving for at least a decade but you are more than welcome to move into the neighbors house on either side, I think the end is near for both. I need some cool, backyard happy hour type neighbors before summer.
Nostra, one demographic I haven’t seen or met is the get rich folks, the water cooler talk up here no longer contains the word “profit.” People are buying shelter not investments, the reality is they are setting themsleves up for a profit down the line but nobody realizes it. Most people and the media are two years behind reality, in 2006 they thought they’d make a killing and in 2009 they are certain they will lose money. I haven’t seen many investors at all, rarely does a place sell and then go up for rent, I think those folks were flushed out of the market and jumped in in 2007 for the most part. I’m going to wait 6 months to a year to see how my household economics shake out in the new pad and get all the projects done, then I’m going to start collecting rentals in the sub 100x rent multiplier range. It is neither a crap shoot or roulette, it’s card counting at this point, some study and planning and you can take a slight advantage.
Participantpatientrenter, I think what was being said about incomes in line with prices was only related to towns listed in the article, not the country as a whole. Temecula Valley is now in line with income and the two largest towns are #1 and #3 on forbes list for places with hot sales. Temecula’s median income is 67k, a condo will run you 150k, a modest 3/2 sfr is well under 200k, and mcmansions are under 300k. The median house is 3x the median income, that is equilibrium, that is the fundamental that needs to be in every town. That’s it, mystery solved, call washington, tell them we figured out the foreclosure crisis, this is a thye model. Lower prices to be fundamentally in line with income for that area and voila! Problem solved. The contracters and retail places get business because people fix up their repos and the rest of retail enjoys the disposable income freed up by a low mortgage. The rest of So Cal’s economic problems can be solved by following the canary in a coal mine, stop the bailout and begin the kick out, forclose on people, you are doing them a favor. Anectdotaly, I had a chance to meet the former owners of my pad, they were a classic example, bought a 650k pad with no down on 100k income, were strapped when the resets came and lost it. Somehow they just managed to buy in a town 20 miles north which is cheaper, got a smaller place and paid 200k, it’s what they should have done in the first place but now they can afford it. They could have been used by the media as a poor fb family being thrown out, but the follow up story is they are happier now that they have managable finances and extra to pay off some debt they incurred trying to save their original house.
Participantpatientrenter, I think what was being said about incomes in line with prices was only related to towns listed in the article, not the country as a whole. Temecula Valley is now in line with income and the two largest towns are #1 and #3 on forbes list for places with hot sales. Temecula’s median income is 67k, a condo will run you 150k, a modest 3/2 sfr is well under 200k, and mcmansions are under 300k. The median house is 3x the median income, that is equilibrium, that is the fundamental that needs to be in every town. That’s it, mystery solved, call washington, tell them we figured out the foreclosure crisis, this is a thye model. Lower prices to be fundamentally in line with income for that area and voila! Problem solved. The contracters and retail places get business because people fix up their repos and the rest of retail enjoys the disposable income freed up by a low mortgage. The rest of So Cal’s economic problems can be solved by following the canary in a coal mine, stop the bailout and begin the kick out, forclose on people, you are doing them a favor. Anectdotaly, I had a chance to meet the former owners of my pad, they were a classic example, bought a 650k pad with no down on 100k income, were strapped when the resets came and lost it. Somehow they just managed to buy in a town 20 miles north which is cheaper, got a smaller place and paid 200k, it’s what they should have done in the first place but now they can afford it. They could have been used by the media as a poor fb family being thrown out, but the follow up story is they are happier now that they have managable finances and extra to pay off some debt they incurred trying to save their original house.
Participantpatientrenter, I think what was being said about incomes in line with prices was only related to towns listed in the article, not the country as a whole. Temecula Valley is now in line with income and the two largest towns are #1 and #3 on forbes list for places with hot sales. Temecula’s median income is 67k, a condo will run you 150k, a modest 3/2 sfr is well under 200k, and mcmansions are under 300k. The median house is 3x the median income, that is equilibrium, that is the fundamental that needs to be in every town. That’s it, mystery solved, call washington, tell them we figured out the foreclosure crisis, this is a thye model. Lower prices to be fundamentally in line with income for that area and voila! Problem solved. The contracters and retail places get business because people fix up their repos and the rest of retail enjoys the disposable income freed up by a low mortgage. The rest of So Cal’s economic problems can be solved by following the canary in a coal mine, stop the bailout and begin the kick out, forclose on people, you are doing them a favor. Anectdotaly, I had a chance to meet the former owners of my pad, they were a classic example, bought a 650k pad with no down on 100k income, were strapped when the resets came and lost it. Somehow they just managed to buy in a town 20 miles north which is cheaper, got a smaller place and paid 200k, it’s what they should have done in the first place but now they can afford it. They could have been used by the media as a poor fb family being thrown out, but the follow up story is they are happier now that they have managable finances and extra to pay off some debt they incurred trying to save their original house.
Participantpatientrenter, I think what was being said about incomes in line with prices was only related to towns listed in the article, not the country as a whole. Temecula Valley is now in line with income and the two largest towns are #1 and #3 on forbes list for places with hot sales. Temecula’s median income is 67k, a condo will run you 150k, a modest 3/2 sfr is well under 200k, and mcmansions are under 300k. The median house is 3x the median income, that is equilibrium, that is the fundamental that needs to be in every town. That’s it, mystery solved, call washington, tell them we figured out the foreclosure crisis, this is a thye model. Lower prices to be fundamentally in line with income for that area and voila! Problem solved. The contracters and retail places get business because people fix up their repos and the rest of retail enjoys the disposable income freed up by a low mortgage. The rest of So Cal’s economic problems can be solved by following the canary in a coal mine, stop the bailout and begin the kick out, forclose on people, you are doing them a favor. Anectdotaly, I had a chance to meet the former owners of my pad, they were a classic example, bought a 650k pad with no down on 100k income, were strapped when the resets came and lost it. Somehow they just managed to buy in a town 20 miles north which is cheaper, got a smaller place and paid 200k, it’s what they should have done in the first place but now they can afford it. They could have been used by the media as a poor fb family being thrown out, but the follow up story is they are happier now that they have managable finances and extra to pay off some debt they incurred trying to save their original house.
Participantpatientrenter, I think what was being said about incomes in line with prices was only related to towns listed in the article, not the country as a whole. Temecula Valley is now in line with income and the two largest towns are #1 and #3 on forbes list for places with hot sales. Temecula’s median income is 67k, a condo will run you 150k, a modest 3/2 sfr is well under 200k, and mcmansions are under 300k. The median house is 3x the median income, that is equilibrium, that is the fundamental that needs to be in every town. That’s it, mystery solved, call washington, tell them we figured out the foreclosure crisis, this is a thye model. Lower prices to be fundamentally in line with income for that area and voila! Problem solved. The contracters and retail places get business because people fix up their repos and the rest of retail enjoys the disposable income freed up by a low mortgage. The rest of So Cal’s economic problems can be solved by following the canary in a coal mine, stop the bailout and begin the kick out, forclose on people, you are doing them a favor. Anectdotaly, I had a chance to meet the former owners of my pad, they were a classic example, bought a 650k pad with no down on 100k income, were strapped when the resets came and lost it. Somehow they just managed to buy in a town 20 miles north which is cheaper, got a smaller place and paid 200k, it’s what they should have done in the first place but now they can afford it. They could have been used by the media as a poor fb family being thrown out, but the follow up story is they are happier now that they have managable finances and extra to pay off some debt they incurred trying to save their original house.
ParticipantI think the point of the article isn’t that the town will now expand and begin building, just that buyers are returning. It isn’t a revelation, drop the prices 50% to pre-bubble pricing and guess what? People will buy houses. Three demographics have caused the latest buying frenzy, those who were already here and were waiting it out, pre-retirees who wanted to trade down but didn’t want to go to another state because of family/grandkids and people who were frustrated waiting for S.D. and O.C. to get realistic and have jobs that don’t force them to commute daily or during rush hour. Buyers exist in every market and if you dangle sub 6% interest rates and 2001 prices in their face, they will buy. This valley fell on it’s face first, prices crashed first and recovery seems to have started first. They aren’t building anything that wasn’t aready started, most builders have slowed to a crawl or closed, the sales are just the repos and shorts.
There isn’t a housing crisis in So Cal, there is a pricing crisis. If you lower prices, houses sell, it’s just that simple.
I need to come up with a name for the post crash buyers, something like “price recasters” or “comp killers.” On my street and my cross street (who share a mailbox cluster) half of us bought repos and shorts post mid 2008 and there is an undeniable tension between the comp killers and the f%$#*% buyers who owe double what we paid. Two of my neighbors have not spoken to me since they found out what I paid, I’ll just have to wait six months for them to be replaced by new people, it’s like the invasion of the body snatchers, you wake each day to see who has been replaced. My neighborhood is more pronounced than most since it was built during the bubble, so every original owner paid peak prices and it’s fall was severe and highly publicized (national media used my development as an example of the crisis hitting high end homes back at the beginning when the media ran it’s first stories).
What’s next for the boomtown, nothing much, it will be good for the valley as a whole because people will have small mortgages that they qualified for and made downpayments on with fixed rates, the last of the sub primers are packing their things, it never became the section 8 nightmare that some predicted and life goes on.
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