[temeculaguy]

[quote=Russell]Temeculaguy,
If you are right about the bottom in Temecula, you might want to remember this thread? For practical purposes the “bottom” is when net benefit from a well negotiated purchase approximates optimal benefits compared to other entry points for the same target property.
[/quote]

Thanks for digging this one up, it was fun to read and I researched some of the properties and comps for the places we talked about. Matt was right about the mid level paloma property hitting 160k, not that exact one but similars and model matches did. This caused me to look up my first house in town, which was similar and in a similar neighborhood. I couldn’t find a model match listed or recently sold so I used my old next door neighbors house and it was telling. He has a 1850 sq ft sfr on a big lot that he paid 165k for in 1992. Interest rates were something like 8% back then (I went to a website with historical interest rates and it said 9% but some reason I remember 8%, maybe that was with points, I was young and dumb, I don’t remember). He had a VA zero down loan. I found a bunch of model matches and recent closings for 200-220.

Just for fun, I ran the P&I on 165 at 8% and it is 1,210. Then I ran 220 at 5% and it turns out it is lower, 1,181. I’m guessing at the rate he had but it’s in the wheelhouse of what it was and that 220 is on the high side or the asking price side. The point is, the payment is 1992, not in inflation adjusted dollars but in real dollars, my hourly pay is almost 5 times what is was when I bought that first house and I could buy it today for the same payment, you only need about about 65k income to qualify for that house and it is a decent sized sfr. In those days I bought that house because I could afford it and it wasn’t much more than I was paying in rent, that’s what most people do, they aren’t like us, they don’t read global economic analysis, they think about it for ten minutes and if it makes sense to them, they do it, affordability matters. That is why I called bottom for this area.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=Russell]Temeculaguy,
If you are right about the bottom in Temecula, you might want to remember this thread? For practical purposes the “bottom” is when net benefit from a well negotiated purchase approximates optimal benefits compared to other entry points for the same target property.
[/quote]

Thanks for digging this one up, it was fun to read and I researched some of the properties and comps for the places we talked about. Matt was right about the mid level paloma property hitting 160k, not that exact one but similars and model matches did. This caused me to look up my first house in town, which was similar and in a similar neighborhood. I couldn’t find a model match listed or recently sold so I used my old next door neighbors house and it was telling. He has a 1850 sq ft sfr on a big lot that he paid 165k for in 1992. Interest rates were something like 8% back then (I went to a website with historical interest rates and it said 9% but some reason I remember 8%, maybe that was with points, I was young and dumb, I don’t remember). He had a VA zero down loan. I found a bunch of model matches and recent closings for 200-220.

Just for fun, I ran the P&I on 165 at 8% and it is 1,210. Then I ran 220 at 5% and it turns out it is lower, 1,181. I’m guessing at the rate he had but it’s in the wheelhouse of what it was and that 220 is on the high side or the asking price side. The point is, the payment is 1992, not in inflation adjusted dollars but in real dollars, my hourly pay is almost 5 times what is was when I bought that first house and I could buy it today for the same payment, you only need about about 65k income to qualify for that house and it is a decent sized sfr. In those days I bought that house because I could afford it and it wasn’t much more than I was paying in rent, that’s what most people do, they aren’t like us, they don’t read global economic analysis, they think about it for ten minutes and if it makes sense to them, they do it, affordability matters. That is why I called bottom for this area.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=Russell]Temeculaguy,
If you are right about the bottom in Temecula, you might want to remember this thread? For practical purposes the “bottom” is when net benefit from a well negotiated purchase approximates optimal benefits compared to other entry points for the same target property.
[/quote]

Thanks for digging this one up, it was fun to read and I researched some of the properties and comps for the places we talked about. Matt was right about the mid level paloma property hitting 160k, not that exact one but similars and model matches did. This caused me to look up my first house in town, which was similar and in a similar neighborhood. I couldn’t find a model match listed or recently sold so I used my old next door neighbors house and it was telling. He has a 1850 sq ft sfr on a big lot that he paid 165k for in 1992. Interest rates were something like 8% back then (I went to a website with historical interest rates and it said 9% but some reason I remember 8%, maybe that was with points, I was young and dumb, I don’t remember). He had a VA zero down loan. I found a bunch of model matches and recent closings for 200-220.

Just for fun, I ran the P&I on 165 at 8% and it is 1,210. Then I ran 220 at 5% and it turns out it is lower, 1,181. I’m guessing at the rate he had but it’s in the wheelhouse of what it was and that 220 is on the high side or the asking price side. The point is, the payment is 1992, not in inflation adjusted dollars but in real dollars, my hourly pay is almost 5 times what is was when I bought that first house and I could buy it today for the same payment, you only need about about 65k income to qualify for that house and it is a decent sized sfr. In those days I bought that house because I could afford it and it wasn’t much more than I was paying in rent, that’s what most people do, they aren’t like us, they don’t read global economic analysis, they think about it for ten minutes and if it makes sense to them, they do it, affordability matters. That is why I called bottom for this area.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=Russell]Temeculaguy,
If you are right about the bottom in Temecula, you might want to remember this thread? For practical purposes the “bottom” is when net benefit from a well negotiated purchase approximates optimal benefits compared to other entry points for the same target property.
[/quote]

Thanks for digging this one up, it was fun to read and I researched some of the properties and comps for the places we talked about. Matt was right about the mid level paloma property hitting 160k, not that exact one but similars and model matches did. This caused me to look up my first house in town, which was similar and in a similar neighborhood. I couldn’t find a model match listed or recently sold so I used my old next door neighbors house and it was telling. He has a 1850 sq ft sfr on a big lot that he paid 165k for in 1992. Interest rates were something like 8% back then (I went to a website with historical interest rates and it said 9% but some reason I remember 8%, maybe that was with points, I was young and dumb, I don’t remember). He had a VA zero down loan. I found a bunch of model matches and recent closings for 200-220.

Just for fun, I ran the P&I on 165 at 8% and it is 1,210. Then I ran 220 at 5% and it turns out it is lower, 1,181. I’m guessing at the rate he had but it’s in the wheelhouse of what it was and that 220 is on the high side or the asking price side. The point is, the payment is 1992, not in inflation adjusted dollars but in real dollars, my hourly pay is almost 5 times what is was when I bought that first house and I could buy it today for the same payment, you only need about about 65k income to qualify for that house and it is a decent sized sfr. In those days I bought that house because I could afford it and it wasn’t much more than I was paying in rent, that’s what most people do, they aren’t like us, they don’t read global economic analysis, they think about it for ten minutes and if it makes sense to them, they do it, affordability matters. That is why I called bottom for this area.

[temeculaguy]

And the horse you rode in on! Really, you sure you want to call me a chump? How many screen names do you have and do you really want to get another one?All I did was stick my neck out and make a prediction, one that I will gladly be ridiculed for over time if it turns out to be wrong. But I supported my argument with research, you told what only you consider is a funny joke.

250 REO’s is less than 2 months supply, who the fu$% cares. You have little to no clue about which you spew. Do not apply broad brush strokes and cliches to micro markets.

That 230k on main street works because it is 4x median income and 2x income for most of the shoppers. It doesn’t “seem” that everyone wants it, everyone does. I spent three years stalking a single zip code, I tracked every repo, every nod, every brown lawn. I know how many nods and nots there were six months ago, a year ago, two years ago and I followed them. A lot of inventory came out of the shadows here already, there are plenty of pending nod’s and not’s but compared to six months ago, a year ago, the speed and volume is slowing. There were more than 250 listings in every 100k price category last year, fromm 200k-300k, over 250, from 300k-400k, over 250, and so on. For three years I tracked every 100k category weekly and often the mls would notify me that there were more than 250, so I began grouping them into 75k chunks, now I can type “everything over 400k” and get less than a hundred. Over 350k and under 350k will cover the entire search, it used to take six groupings to capture the data.

Based on everything I see, not what some conspiracy knucklehead tells me but my own data searches that I and I alone have performed in a ritualistic fashion over years, I say the end of the pity party is near. I have street cred that I have earned over time, you do not, I have adoring fans, you do not, and I just looked in the mirror and I didn’t see a chump, did you?

[temeculaguy]

And the horse you rode in on! Really, you sure you want to call me a chump? How many screen names do you have and do you really want to get another one?All I did was stick my neck out and make a prediction, one that I will gladly be ridiculed for over time if it turns out to be wrong. But I supported my argument with research, you told what only you consider is a funny joke.

250 REO’s is less than 2 months supply, who the fu$% cares. You have little to no clue about which you spew. Do not apply broad brush strokes and cliches to micro markets.

That 230k on main street works because it is 4x median income and 2x income for most of the shoppers. It doesn’t “seem” that everyone wants it, everyone does. I spent three years stalking a single zip code, I tracked every repo, every nod, every brown lawn. I know how many nods and nots there were six months ago, a year ago, two years ago and I followed them. A lot of inventory came out of the shadows here already, there are plenty of pending nod’s and not’s but compared to six months ago, a year ago, the speed and volume is slowing. There were more than 250 listings in every 100k price category last year, fromm 200k-300k, over 250, from 300k-400k, over 250, and so on. For three years I tracked every 100k category weekly and often the mls would notify me that there were more than 250, so I began grouping them into 75k chunks, now I can type “everything over 400k” and get less than a hundred. Over 350k and under 350k will cover the entire search, it used to take six groupings to capture the data.

Based on everything I see, not what some conspiracy knucklehead tells me but my own data searches that I and I alone have performed in a ritualistic fashion over years, I say the end of the pity party is near. I have street cred that I have earned over time, you do not, I have adoring fans, you do not, and I just looked in the mirror and I didn’t see a chump, did you?

[temeculaguy]

And the horse you rode in on! Really, you sure you want to call me a chump? How many screen names do you have and do you really want to get another one?All I did was stick my neck out and make a prediction, one that I will gladly be ridiculed for over time if it turns out to be wrong. But I supported my argument with research, you told what only you consider is a funny joke.

250 REO’s is less than 2 months supply, who the fu$% cares. You have little to no clue about which you spew. Do not apply broad brush strokes and cliches to micro markets.

That 230k on main street works because it is 4x median income and 2x income for most of the shoppers. It doesn’t “seem” that everyone wants it, everyone does. I spent three years stalking a single zip code, I tracked every repo, every nod, every brown lawn. I know how many nods and nots there were six months ago, a year ago, two years ago and I followed them. A lot of inventory came out of the shadows here already, there are plenty of pending nod’s and not’s but compared to six months ago, a year ago, the speed and volume is slowing. There were more than 250 listings in every 100k price category last year, fromm 200k-300k, over 250, from 300k-400k, over 250, and so on. For three years I tracked every 100k category weekly and often the mls would notify me that there were more than 250, so I began grouping them into 75k chunks, now I can type “everything over 400k” and get less than a hundred. Over 350k and under 350k will cover the entire search, it used to take six groupings to capture the data.

Based on everything I see, not what some conspiracy knucklehead tells me but my own data searches that I and I alone have performed in a ritualistic fashion over years, I say the end of the pity party is near. I have street cred that I have earned over time, you do not, I have adoring fans, you do not, and I just looked in the mirror and I didn’t see a chump, did you?

[temeculaguy]

And the horse you rode in on! Really, you sure you want to call me a chump? How many screen names do you have and do you really want to get another one?All I did was stick my neck out and make a prediction, one that I will gladly be ridiculed for over time if it turns out to be wrong. But I supported my argument with research, you told what only you consider is a funny joke.

250 REO’s is less than 2 months supply, who the fu$% cares. You have little to no clue about which you spew. Do not apply broad brush strokes and cliches to micro markets.

That 230k on main street works because it is 4x median income and 2x income for most of the shoppers. It doesn’t “seem” that everyone wants it, everyone does. I spent three years stalking a single zip code, I tracked every repo, every nod, every brown lawn. I know how many nods and nots there were six months ago, a year ago, two years ago and I followed them. A lot of inventory came out of the shadows here already, there are plenty of pending nod’s and not’s but compared to six months ago, a year ago, the speed and volume is slowing. There were more than 250 listings in every 100k price category last year, fromm 200k-300k, over 250, from 300k-400k, over 250, and so on. For three years I tracked every 100k category weekly and often the mls would notify me that there were more than 250, so I began grouping them into 75k chunks, now I can type “everything over 400k” and get less than a hundred. Over 350k and under 350k will cover the entire search, it used to take six groupings to capture the data.

Based on everything I see, not what some conspiracy knucklehead tells me but my own data searches that I and I alone have performed in a ritualistic fashion over years, I say the end of the pity party is near. I have street cred that I have earned over time, you do not, I have adoring fans, you do not, and I just looked in the mirror and I didn’t see a chump, did you?

[temeculaguy]

And the horse you rode in on! Really, you sure you want to call me a chump? How many screen names do you have and do you really want to get another one?All I did was stick my neck out and make a prediction, one that I will gladly be ridiculed for over time if it turns out to be wrong. But I supported my argument with research, you told what only you consider is a funny joke.

250 REO’s is less than 2 months supply, who the fu$% cares. You have little to no clue about which you spew. Do not apply broad brush strokes and cliches to micro markets.

That 230k on main street works because it is 4x median income and 2x income for most of the shoppers. It doesn’t “seem” that everyone wants it, everyone does. I spent three years stalking a single zip code, I tracked every repo, every nod, every brown lawn. I know how many nods and nots there were six months ago, a year ago, two years ago and I followed them. A lot of inventory came out of the shadows here already, there are plenty of pending nod’s and not’s but compared to six months ago, a year ago, the speed and volume is slowing. There were more than 250 listings in every 100k price category last year, fromm 200k-300k, over 250, from 300k-400k, over 250, and so on. For three years I tracked every 100k category weekly and often the mls would notify me that there were more than 250, so I began grouping them into 75k chunks, now I can type “everything over 400k” and get less than a hundred. Over 350k and under 350k will cover the entire search, it used to take six groupings to capture the data.

Based on everything I see, not what some conspiracy knucklehead tells me but my own data searches that I and I alone have performed in a ritualistic fashion over years, I say the end of the pity party is near. I have street cred that I have earned over time, you do not, I have adoring fans, you do not, and I just looked in the mirror and I didn’t see a chump, did you?

[temeculaguy]

[quote=temeculaguy]Josh or anyone else please chime in, when it hits 6k or 5k or 4k, is any of it a signal to buy? Ignoring the dow and the s&p per se, is there a date or a circumstance that you see a moderate term (1-5 years) stock play that is a value. As hammered as some stocks are, picking up something for 10 cents on the dollar (albeit that dollar was an inflated value) as a deal.

Like many people, I have my investments spread around in different areas and in different accounts, but I have one that is my pure gambling fund. The 401k, the cash reserves, the canned food, the ammo, the water, all that is covered. I’ve got 5 or 6k in the gambling fund that I thought I might play with on etrade. Just realize that this money, if lost isn’t going to prevent me from eating, the gambling fund is reserved for vegas, strip clubs, golf weekends, you know, things I can and probably should live without. Success with stocks out of the gambling fund will just finance more debauchery but play along wont you. Assuming 5 different 1k purchases, what are your thoughts on these stocks: Harley Davidson, GE, Ford, Costco, Phillip Morris, and Hovnanian.

Which one would you drop from the list?

I know they are all in the crapper, some may not survive the year. If a single one returns to glory it would cover the other 4 (with the exception of costco and PM, they are only down by half, the others are small fractions of their previous value). Harley and GE have P/E’s of like 3, costco actually had higher sales recently yet has gotten beaten up just because it is a traded stock, cigarettes in foriegn countries, winner, winner, chicken dinner. I think ford may make it, their new hybrids look impressive, maybe they will understand just in time. I think hovnanian homes as a penny stock is worth a look. While I don’t own a harley, their brand loyalty amongst their customers is unparalleled, it’s like a cult, they literally will stop being friends with someone for purchasing another brand, I just don’t see them vanishing from the planet in my lifetime.

So there are my bottom feeder picks, they are all in the crapper right now and going lower every day, fast. At dow 6000, dow 4000, or whatever, what do you think of these gambles? Let’s just say that the country doesn’t end up a nuclear wasteland, some companies will survive on the other side, any ideas on which ones and no safe plays, keep the gambling fund ideals in mind.[/quote]

Let’s see how this would have played out based on my March 5th question, let’s use March 6th prices had I bought 1k of each the next day, like I had planned. Compared to the closing prices Friday

HOG 8.33 to 20.44 1k=2,453
GE 7.06 to 12.11 1k=1,715
F 1.70 to 5.00 1k=2,941
HOV .58 to 2.37 1k=4,086
COST 38.98 to 48.17 1k=1,235
MO 15.72 to 16.92 1k=1,076

Friday’s value for the 6k intitial investment would have been 13,506, a profit of 7,506 had I been able to locate my scrotum at the same time I located my brain.

I read countless articles from pundits and experts who did a very good job explaining how they had perfected formulas and theorums that explained that I was wrong and they were right and if I buy their book or read their articles I can be right like them. I was convinced once again that I didn’t know what I was doing and I should be afraid of all the uncertainty. They can blow me!

[temeculaguy]

[quote=temeculaguy]Josh or anyone else please chime in, when it hits 6k or 5k or 4k, is any of it a signal to buy? Ignoring the dow and the s&p per se, is there a date or a circumstance that you see a moderate term (1-5 years) stock play that is a value. As hammered as some stocks are, picking up something for 10 cents on the dollar (albeit that dollar was an inflated value) as a deal.

Like many people, I have my investments spread around in different areas and in different accounts, but I have one that is my pure gambling fund. The 401k, the cash reserves, the canned food, the ammo, the water, all that is covered. I’ve got 5 or 6k in the gambling fund that I thought I might play with on etrade. Just realize that this money, if lost isn’t going to prevent me from eating, the gambling fund is reserved for vegas, strip clubs, golf weekends, you know, things I can and probably should live without. Success with stocks out of the gambling fund will just finance more debauchery but play along wont you. Assuming 5 different 1k purchases, what are your thoughts on these stocks: Harley Davidson, GE, Ford, Costco, Phillip Morris, and Hovnanian.

Which one would you drop from the list?

I know they are all in the crapper, some may not survive the year. If a single one returns to glory it would cover the other 4 (with the exception of costco and PM, they are only down by half, the others are small fractions of their previous value). Harley and GE have P/E’s of like 3, costco actually had higher sales recently yet has gotten beaten up just because it is a traded stock, cigarettes in foriegn countries, winner, winner, chicken dinner. I think ford may make it, their new hybrids look impressive, maybe they will understand just in time. I think hovnanian homes as a penny stock is worth a look. While I don’t own a harley, their brand loyalty amongst their customers is unparalleled, it’s like a cult, they literally will stop being friends with someone for purchasing another brand, I just don’t see them vanishing from the planet in my lifetime.

So there are my bottom feeder picks, they are all in the crapper right now and going lower every day, fast. At dow 6000, dow 4000, or whatever, what do you think of these gambles? Let’s just say that the country doesn’t end up a nuclear wasteland, some companies will survive on the other side, any ideas on which ones and no safe plays, keep the gambling fund ideals in mind.[/quote]

Let’s see how this would have played out based on my March 5th question, let’s use March 6th prices had I bought 1k of each the next day, like I had planned. Compared to the closing prices Friday

HOG 8.33 to 20.44 1k=2,453
GE 7.06 to 12.11 1k=1,715
F 1.70 to 5.00 1k=2,941
HOV .58 to 2.37 1k=4,086
COST 38.98 to 48.17 1k=1,235
MO 15.72 to 16.92 1k=1,076

Friday’s value for the 6k intitial investment would have been 13,506, a profit of 7,506 had I been able to locate my scrotum at the same time I located my brain.

I read countless articles from pundits and experts who did a very good job explaining how they had perfected formulas and theorums that explained that I was wrong and they were right and if I buy their book or read their articles I can be right like them. I was convinced once again that I didn’t know what I was doing and I should be afraid of all the uncertainty. They can blow me!

[temeculaguy]

[quote=temeculaguy]Josh or anyone else please chime in, when it hits 6k or 5k or 4k, is any of it a signal to buy? Ignoring the dow and the s&p per se, is there a date or a circumstance that you see a moderate term (1-5 years) stock play that is a value. As hammered as some stocks are, picking up something for 10 cents on the dollar (albeit that dollar was an inflated value) as a deal.

Like many people, I have my investments spread around in different areas and in different accounts, but I have one that is my pure gambling fund. The 401k, the cash reserves, the canned food, the ammo, the water, all that is covered. I’ve got 5 or 6k in the gambling fund that I thought I might play with on etrade. Just realize that this money, if lost isn’t going to prevent me from eating, the gambling fund is reserved for vegas, strip clubs, golf weekends, you know, things I can and probably should live without. Success with stocks out of the gambling fund will just finance more debauchery but play along wont you. Assuming 5 different 1k purchases, what are your thoughts on these stocks: Harley Davidson, GE, Ford, Costco, Phillip Morris, and Hovnanian.

Which one would you drop from the list?

I know they are all in the crapper, some may not survive the year. If a single one returns to glory it would cover the other 4 (with the exception of costco and PM, they are only down by half, the others are small fractions of their previous value). Harley and GE have P/E’s of like 3, costco actually had higher sales recently yet has gotten beaten up just because it is a traded stock, cigarettes in foriegn countries, winner, winner, chicken dinner. I think ford may make it, their new hybrids look impressive, maybe they will understand just in time. I think hovnanian homes as a penny stock is worth a look. While I don’t own a harley, their brand loyalty amongst their customers is unparalleled, it’s like a cult, they literally will stop being friends with someone for purchasing another brand, I just don’t see them vanishing from the planet in my lifetime.

So there are my bottom feeder picks, they are all in the crapper right now and going lower every day, fast. At dow 6000, dow 4000, or whatever, what do you think of these gambles? Let’s just say that the country doesn’t end up a nuclear wasteland, some companies will survive on the other side, any ideas on which ones and no safe plays, keep the gambling fund ideals in mind.[/quote]

Let’s see how this would have played out based on my March 5th question, let’s use March 6th prices had I bought 1k of each the next day, like I had planned. Compared to the closing prices Friday

HOG 8.33 to 20.44 1k=2,453
GE 7.06 to 12.11 1k=1,715
F 1.70 to 5.00 1k=2,941
HOV .58 to 2.37 1k=4,086
COST 38.98 to 48.17 1k=1,235
MO 15.72 to 16.92 1k=1,076

Friday’s value for the 6k intitial investment would have been 13,506, a profit of 7,506 had I been able to locate my scrotum at the same time I located my brain.

I read countless articles from pundits and experts who did a very good job explaining how they had perfected formulas and theorums that explained that I was wrong and they were right and if I buy their book or read their articles I can be right like them. I was convinced once again that I didn’t know what I was doing and I should be afraid of all the uncertainty. They can blow me!

[temeculaguy]

[quote=temeculaguy]Josh or anyone else please chime in, when it hits 6k or 5k or 4k, is any of it a signal to buy? Ignoring the dow and the s&p per se, is there a date or a circumstance that you see a moderate term (1-5 years) stock play that is a value. As hammered as some stocks are, picking up something for 10 cents on the dollar (albeit that dollar was an inflated value) as a deal.

Like many people, I have my investments spread around in different areas and in different accounts, but I have one that is my pure gambling fund. The 401k, the cash reserves, the canned food, the ammo, the water, all that is covered. I’ve got 5 or 6k in the gambling fund that I thought I might play with on etrade. Just realize that this money, if lost isn’t going to prevent me from eating, the gambling fund is reserved for vegas, strip clubs, golf weekends, you know, things I can and probably should live without. Success with stocks out of the gambling fund will just finance more debauchery but play along wont you. Assuming 5 different 1k purchases, what are your thoughts on these stocks: Harley Davidson, GE, Ford, Costco, Phillip Morris, and Hovnanian.

Which one would you drop from the list?

I know they are all in the crapper, some may not survive the year. If a single one returns to glory it would cover the other 4 (with the exception of costco and PM, they are only down by half, the others are small fractions of their previous value). Harley and GE have P/E’s of like 3, costco actually had higher sales recently yet has gotten beaten up just because it is a traded stock, cigarettes in foriegn countries, winner, winner, chicken dinner. I think ford may make it, their new hybrids look impressive, maybe they will understand just in time. I think hovnanian homes as a penny stock is worth a look. While I don’t own a harley, their brand loyalty amongst their customers is unparalleled, it’s like a cult, they literally will stop being friends with someone for purchasing another brand, I just don’t see them vanishing from the planet in my lifetime.

So there are my bottom feeder picks, they are all in the crapper right now and going lower every day, fast. At dow 6000, dow 4000, or whatever, what do you think of these gambles? Let’s just say that the country doesn’t end up a nuclear wasteland, some companies will survive on the other side, any ideas on which ones and no safe plays, keep the gambling fund ideals in mind.[/quote]

Let’s see how this would have played out based on my March 5th question, let’s use March 6th prices had I bought 1k of each the next day, like I had planned. Compared to the closing prices Friday

HOG 8.33 to 20.44 1k=2,453
GE 7.06 to 12.11 1k=1,715
F 1.70 to 5.00 1k=2,941
HOV .58 to 2.37 1k=4,086
COST 38.98 to 48.17 1k=1,235
MO 15.72 to 16.92 1k=1,076

Friday’s value for the 6k intitial investment would have been 13,506, a profit of 7,506 had I been able to locate my scrotum at the same time I located my brain.

I read countless articles from pundits and experts who did a very good job explaining how they had perfected formulas and theorums that explained that I was wrong and they were right and if I buy their book or read their articles I can be right like them. I was convinced once again that I didn’t know what I was doing and I should be afraid of all the uncertainty. They can blow me!

[temeculaguy]

[quote=temeculaguy]Josh or anyone else please chime in, when it hits 6k or 5k or 4k, is any of it a signal to buy? Ignoring the dow and the s&p per se, is there a date or a circumstance that you see a moderate term (1-5 years) stock play that is a value. As hammered as some stocks are, picking up something for 10 cents on the dollar (albeit that dollar was an inflated value) as a deal.

Like many people, I have my investments spread around in different areas and in different accounts, but I have one that is my pure gambling fund. The 401k, the cash reserves, the canned food, the ammo, the water, all that is covered. I’ve got 5 or 6k in the gambling fund that I thought I might play with on etrade. Just realize that this money, if lost isn’t going to prevent me from eating, the gambling fund is reserved for vegas, strip clubs, golf weekends, you know, things I can and probably should live without. Success with stocks out of the gambling fund will just finance more debauchery but play along wont you. Assuming 5 different 1k purchases, what are your thoughts on these stocks: Harley Davidson, GE, Ford, Costco, Phillip Morris, and Hovnanian.

Which one would you drop from the list?

I know they are all in the crapper, some may not survive the year. If a single one returns to glory it would cover the other 4 (with the exception of costco and PM, they are only down by half, the others are small fractions of their previous value). Harley and GE have P/E’s of like 3, costco actually had higher sales recently yet has gotten beaten up just because it is a traded stock, cigarettes in foriegn countries, winner, winner, chicken dinner. I think ford may make it, their new hybrids look impressive, maybe they will understand just in time. I think hovnanian homes as a penny stock is worth a look. While I don’t own a harley, their brand loyalty amongst their customers is unparalleled, it’s like a cult, they literally will stop being friends with someone for purchasing another brand, I just don’t see them vanishing from the planet in my lifetime.

So there are my bottom feeder picks, they are all in the crapper right now and going lower every day, fast. At dow 6000, dow 4000, or whatever, what do you think of these gambles? Let’s just say that the country doesn’t end up a nuclear wasteland, some companies will survive on the other side, any ideas on which ones and no safe plays, keep the gambling fund ideals in mind.[/quote]

Let’s see how this would have played out based on my March 5th question, let’s use March 6th prices had I bought 1k of each the next day, like I had planned. Compared to the closing prices Friday

HOG 8.33 to 20.44 1k=2,453
GE 7.06 to 12.11 1k=1,715
F 1.70 to 5.00 1k=2,941
HOV .58 to 2.37 1k=4,086
COST 38.98 to 48.17 1k=1,235
MO 15.72 to 16.92 1k=1,076

Friday’s value for the 6k intitial investment would have been 13,506, a profit of 7,506 had I been able to locate my scrotum at the same time I located my brain.

I read countless articles from pundits and experts who did a very good job explaining how they had perfected formulas and theorums that explained that I was wrong and they were right and if I buy their book or read their articles I can be right like them. I was convinced once again that I didn’t know what I was doing and I should be afraid of all the uncertainty. They can blow me!

[temeculaguy]

equalizer, that taurus SHO you showed a picture of, is that a concept or are they actually going to sell that? Will the non SHO have the same body? That thing looks hot and it is a Taurus, did I just say that?

I’m so freaking pissed at myself for not buying Ford stock in the dollar range back in March, I even posted my thoughts on these boards and everyone (not just on the internet)told me it was stupid, what is even more stupid I listened, now the stock is over $5 and climbing. They borrowed a bunch of money a few years ago, back when things were good in order to redesign their entire line, if this is the new Taurus, then the money was worth it because that thing looks hot! I can’t believe I keep saying that a Taurus looks hot.

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