[temeculaguy]

Then you name the time frame, but name it now, that’s the thing with predictions, you don’t get to name them afterwards. You can’t say “things will be bad”, not quantify or define “bad” and then later say you were right.

Your sources are not excellent sources, you never adressed the fact that they are unreliable, they are not “the sources,” they are the sucker sources.
They are certainly not the industry standard sources.

I am not in the industry, I’m just like you, I’m a guy who in 2006 was frustrated with the real estate prices, read all that I could, researched what I could and after nearly a three year endeavor I came to a few conclusions. Roubini and Shiller were on the money, the johnny come lately pundits are copycats who are selling hype but they are late to the game. I also learned that realty trac was crap, I tried to buy at least a dozen of their so called bank owned homes, all a mirage. Long before the word “bailout” was used, their listings, their shadow inventory from 2007, never materialized, this was before moratoriums, before anything had blown up, I watched, I waited and I was disapointed by their bad data. I wanted it to show up, I wanted it to explode before my eyes so I could have the house I wanted for the price I wanted. But it never came like they said it would, because they were and are selling an ideal, not unlike some religions. Eventually I realized it would happen slowly, so I bided my time goofing off with people on this site, learning more each day, tracking, visiting in person, waiting. Then you come along, I try to tell you Santa Claus isn’t real, but you won’t listen so it’s a journey you must make for yourself, hopefully the price of your tuition will be tolerable, I’ve done all I can with you. Time will tell, but as hard as you wish, that boat may never come for you because you have the wrong map and anyone with another map or has gotten lost with the very map you hold, is wrong in your eyes.

Maybe it’s true, maybe the government, the banks, the realtors and even the internet philosophers are all out to get you and in the end, you and you alone will be proven to be the wisest one of all. Good luck with that.

[temeculaguy]

Then you name the time frame, but name it now, that’s the thing with predictions, you don’t get to name them afterwards. You can’t say “things will be bad”, not quantify or define “bad” and then later say you were right.

Your sources are not excellent sources, you never adressed the fact that they are unreliable, they are not “the sources,” they are the sucker sources.
They are certainly not the industry standard sources.

I am not in the industry, I’m just like you, I’m a guy who in 2006 was frustrated with the real estate prices, read all that I could, researched what I could and after nearly a three year endeavor I came to a few conclusions. Roubini and Shiller were on the money, the johnny come lately pundits are copycats who are selling hype but they are late to the game. I also learned that realty trac was crap, I tried to buy at least a dozen of their so called bank owned homes, all a mirage. Long before the word “bailout” was used, their listings, their shadow inventory from 2007, never materialized, this was before moratoriums, before anything had blown up, I watched, I waited and I was disapointed by their bad data. I wanted it to show up, I wanted it to explode before my eyes so I could have the house I wanted for the price I wanted. But it never came like they said it would, because they were and are selling an ideal, not unlike some religions. Eventually I realized it would happen slowly, so I bided my time goofing off with people on this site, learning more each day, tracking, visiting in person, waiting. Then you come along, I try to tell you Santa Claus isn’t real, but you won’t listen so it’s a journey you must make for yourself, hopefully the price of your tuition will be tolerable, I’ve done all I can with you. Time will tell, but as hard as you wish, that boat may never come for you because you have the wrong map and anyone with another map or has gotten lost with the very map you hold, is wrong in your eyes.

Maybe it’s true, maybe the government, the banks, the realtors and even the internet philosophers are all out to get you and in the end, you and you alone will be proven to be the wisest one of all. Good luck with that.

[temeculaguy]

Then you name the time frame, but name it now, that’s the thing with predictions, you don’t get to name them afterwards. You can’t say “things will be bad”, not quantify or define “bad” and then later say you were right.

Your sources are not excellent sources, you never adressed the fact that they are unreliable, they are not “the sources,” they are the sucker sources.
They are certainly not the industry standard sources.

I am not in the industry, I’m just like you, I’m a guy who in 2006 was frustrated with the real estate prices, read all that I could, researched what I could and after nearly a three year endeavor I came to a few conclusions. Roubini and Shiller were on the money, the johnny come lately pundits are copycats who are selling hype but they are late to the game. I also learned that realty trac was crap, I tried to buy at least a dozen of their so called bank owned homes, all a mirage. Long before the word “bailout” was used, their listings, their shadow inventory from 2007, never materialized, this was before moratoriums, before anything had blown up, I watched, I waited and I was disapointed by their bad data. I wanted it to show up, I wanted it to explode before my eyes so I could have the house I wanted for the price I wanted. But it never came like they said it would, because they were and are selling an ideal, not unlike some religions. Eventually I realized it would happen slowly, so I bided my time goofing off with people on this site, learning more each day, tracking, visiting in person, waiting. Then you come along, I try to tell you Santa Claus isn’t real, but you won’t listen so it’s a journey you must make for yourself, hopefully the price of your tuition will be tolerable, I’ve done all I can with you. Time will tell, but as hard as you wish, that boat may never come for you because you have the wrong map and anyone with another map or has gotten lost with the very map you hold, is wrong in your eyes.

Maybe it’s true, maybe the government, the banks, the realtors and even the internet philosophers are all out to get you and in the end, you and you alone will be proven to be the wisest one of all. Good luck with that.

[temeculaguy]

Then you name the time frame, but name it now, that’s the thing with predictions, you don’t get to name them afterwards. You can’t say “things will be bad”, not quantify or define “bad” and then later say you were right.

Your sources are not excellent sources, you never adressed the fact that they are unreliable, they are not “the sources,” they are the sucker sources.
They are certainly not the industry standard sources.

I am not in the industry, I’m just like you, I’m a guy who in 2006 was frustrated with the real estate prices, read all that I could, researched what I could and after nearly a three year endeavor I came to a few conclusions. Roubini and Shiller were on the money, the johnny come lately pundits are copycats who are selling hype but they are late to the game. I also learned that realty trac was crap, I tried to buy at least a dozen of their so called bank owned homes, all a mirage. Long before the word “bailout” was used, their listings, their shadow inventory from 2007, never materialized, this was before moratoriums, before anything had blown up, I watched, I waited and I was disapointed by their bad data. I wanted it to show up, I wanted it to explode before my eyes so I could have the house I wanted for the price I wanted. But it never came like they said it would, because they were and are selling an ideal, not unlike some religions. Eventually I realized it would happen slowly, so I bided my time goofing off with people on this site, learning more each day, tracking, visiting in person, waiting. Then you come along, I try to tell you Santa Claus isn’t real, but you won’t listen so it’s a journey you must make for yourself, hopefully the price of your tuition will be tolerable, I’ve done all I can with you. Time will tell, but as hard as you wish, that boat may never come for you because you have the wrong map and anyone with another map or has gotten lost with the very map you hold, is wrong in your eyes.

Maybe it’s true, maybe the government, the banks, the realtors and even the internet philosophers are all out to get you and in the end, you and you alone will be proven to be the wisest one of all. Good luck with that.

[temeculaguy]

bob, you may be right but using the actions of the fed, the banks and the gov’t as an indicator of a specific micromarket, an actual zip code doesn’t hold water. Obama doesn’t lose sleep about 92592. we are at 60% off, we are at mid 1990’s pricing, some are tied with 1991. Until exclipse joined in, I was the only one making that call, I went babe ruth, pointed at right field and I’ll suffer the consequences if wrong. I did not, repeat, did not, call bottom for any other area. most have much more to lose.

Harry, there is only one street in all of vail ranch that is larger than 3000 sq ft, it’s a fill in street on Valentino. Vail is entry level, mostly sub 2k sq ft without an hoa and has/will fall a little harder due to the smaller housing stock, poor condition, older homes and higher rental percentage, valentino is an anomoly, one street of nice, big houses in a low end neighborhood, $80 a square is a gift and not indicative of the market as a whole. The best house in the worst neighborhood is still not as good as the worst house in the best neighborhood.

Either way $80 is a fair sq ft price and is one of the factors I considered in calling bottom, I paid in the 80 range for morgan hill, with luck you can find it in morgan and redhawk, logic says it should be less as you move down the foodchain neighborhood wise. But it won’t be move in condition, one of the reasons for the spread, lot size/view, house size (smaller tends to have higher ppsf) etc can cause the 80-100 a square variation. If it goes 50-70 a square with regularity, then of course I won’t be able to show my face around here.

It isn’t pure supply and demand, because it isn’t in a vaccum, demand doesn’t have to come from the local population. When it reaches texas pricing, it becomes attractive to retirees or refugees from higher priced areas, something often overlooked.

Everyone has made their opinions known, all I ask is for anyone to quote a ppsf for an average house or a specific one. What do you think a 2500 redhawk house will fall to. They are about 250k now, with a plus or minus depending on various factors, if you think they will go to 150k, then call it, if you think they will hit 75k, then call it. I remember bearvine telling me that the houses i was looking at would get to the 250-300 range for over 3000 sq ft, near new in morgan, with lots of bells and whistles. They did for a few seconds, I took the bait, if it turns out I’m wrong then all I lost was some credibility online. Either way, I was paying 1500 to rent a condo, now I pay 2000 to own a house twice as large and after the tax deduxtion, it’s a wash. That, is why I called bottom. Because those condos I rented can be bought with an fha loan for 700 a month. Even with 20% unemployment, even if middle aged women have to work, they can buy a condo with their mall job, that is another reason for me calling bottom. Do you really think there is another 25 or 50% left in the downturn? Do you think that the apartment like condos on 79S that are going for 100k will be 50k, or the large townhouses with 2 car attached garages and yards off butterfield will go for 70k (140k is the going rate today). Really?

See, not all people read the financial horror stories, the normal folk look at their own numbers. If one cell phone service is half the price of another, they switch. If Wallmart is cheaper, they go there. And if they can actually save on rent, as much as 1/3 off by buying with as little as 3% down, they buy. They could give a crap what the pundits say.

[temeculaguy]

bob, you may be right but using the actions of the fed, the banks and the gov’t as an indicator of a specific micromarket, an actual zip code doesn’t hold water. Obama doesn’t lose sleep about 92592. we are at 60% off, we are at mid 1990’s pricing, some are tied with 1991. Until exclipse joined in, I was the only one making that call, I went babe ruth, pointed at right field and I’ll suffer the consequences if wrong. I did not, repeat, did not, call bottom for any other area. most have much more to lose.

Harry, there is only one street in all of vail ranch that is larger than 3000 sq ft, it’s a fill in street on Valentino. Vail is entry level, mostly sub 2k sq ft without an hoa and has/will fall a little harder due to the smaller housing stock, poor condition, older homes and higher rental percentage, valentino is an anomoly, one street of nice, big houses in a low end neighborhood, $80 a square is a gift and not indicative of the market as a whole. The best house in the worst neighborhood is still not as good as the worst house in the best neighborhood.

Either way $80 is a fair sq ft price and is one of the factors I considered in calling bottom, I paid in the 80 range for morgan hill, with luck you can find it in morgan and redhawk, logic says it should be less as you move down the foodchain neighborhood wise. But it won’t be move in condition, one of the reasons for the spread, lot size/view, house size (smaller tends to have higher ppsf) etc can cause the 80-100 a square variation. If it goes 50-70 a square with regularity, then of course I won’t be able to show my face around here.

It isn’t pure supply and demand, because it isn’t in a vaccum, demand doesn’t have to come from the local population. When it reaches texas pricing, it becomes attractive to retirees or refugees from higher priced areas, something often overlooked.

Everyone has made their opinions known, all I ask is for anyone to quote a ppsf for an average house or a specific one. What do you think a 2500 redhawk house will fall to. They are about 250k now, with a plus or minus depending on various factors, if you think they will go to 150k, then call it, if you think they will hit 75k, then call it. I remember bearvine telling me that the houses i was looking at would get to the 250-300 range for over 3000 sq ft, near new in morgan, with lots of bells and whistles. They did for a few seconds, I took the bait, if it turns out I’m wrong then all I lost was some credibility online. Either way, I was paying 1500 to rent a condo, now I pay 2000 to own a house twice as large and after the tax deduxtion, it’s a wash. That, is why I called bottom. Because those condos I rented can be bought with an fha loan for 700 a month. Even with 20% unemployment, even if middle aged women have to work, they can buy a condo with their mall job, that is another reason for me calling bottom. Do you really think there is another 25 or 50% left in the downturn? Do you think that the apartment like condos on 79S that are going for 100k will be 50k, or the large townhouses with 2 car attached garages and yards off butterfield will go for 70k (140k is the going rate today). Really?

See, not all people read the financial horror stories, the normal folk look at their own numbers. If one cell phone service is half the price of another, they switch. If Wallmart is cheaper, they go there. And if they can actually save on rent, as much as 1/3 off by buying with as little as 3% down, they buy. They could give a crap what the pundits say.

[temeculaguy]

bob, you may be right but using the actions of the fed, the banks and the gov’t as an indicator of a specific micromarket, an actual zip code doesn’t hold water. Obama doesn’t lose sleep about 92592. we are at 60% off, we are at mid 1990’s pricing, some are tied with 1991. Until exclipse joined in, I was the only one making that call, I went babe ruth, pointed at right field and I’ll suffer the consequences if wrong. I did not, repeat, did not, call bottom for any other area. most have much more to lose.

Harry, there is only one street in all of vail ranch that is larger than 3000 sq ft, it’s a fill in street on Valentino. Vail is entry level, mostly sub 2k sq ft without an hoa and has/will fall a little harder due to the smaller housing stock, poor condition, older homes and higher rental percentage, valentino is an anomoly, one street of nice, big houses in a low end neighborhood, $80 a square is a gift and not indicative of the market as a whole. The best house in the worst neighborhood is still not as good as the worst house in the best neighborhood.

Either way $80 is a fair sq ft price and is one of the factors I considered in calling bottom, I paid in the 80 range for morgan hill, with luck you can find it in morgan and redhawk, logic says it should be less as you move down the foodchain neighborhood wise. But it won’t be move in condition, one of the reasons for the spread, lot size/view, house size (smaller tends to have higher ppsf) etc can cause the 80-100 a square variation. If it goes 50-70 a square with regularity, then of course I won’t be able to show my face around here.

It isn’t pure supply and demand, because it isn’t in a vaccum, demand doesn’t have to come from the local population. When it reaches texas pricing, it becomes attractive to retirees or refugees from higher priced areas, something often overlooked.

Everyone has made their opinions known, all I ask is for anyone to quote a ppsf for an average house or a specific one. What do you think a 2500 redhawk house will fall to. They are about 250k now, with a plus or minus depending on various factors, if you think they will go to 150k, then call it, if you think they will hit 75k, then call it. I remember bearvine telling me that the houses i was looking at would get to the 250-300 range for over 3000 sq ft, near new in morgan, with lots of bells and whistles. They did for a few seconds, I took the bait, if it turns out I’m wrong then all I lost was some credibility online. Either way, I was paying 1500 to rent a condo, now I pay 2000 to own a house twice as large and after the tax deduxtion, it’s a wash. That, is why I called bottom. Because those condos I rented can be bought with an fha loan for 700 a month. Even with 20% unemployment, even if middle aged women have to work, they can buy a condo with their mall job, that is another reason for me calling bottom. Do you really think there is another 25 or 50% left in the downturn? Do you think that the apartment like condos on 79S that are going for 100k will be 50k, or the large townhouses with 2 car attached garages and yards off butterfield will go for 70k (140k is the going rate today). Really?

See, not all people read the financial horror stories, the normal folk look at their own numbers. If one cell phone service is half the price of another, they switch. If Wallmart is cheaper, they go there. And if they can actually save on rent, as much as 1/3 off by buying with as little as 3% down, they buy. They could give a crap what the pundits say.

[temeculaguy]

bob, you may be right but using the actions of the fed, the banks and the gov’t as an indicator of a specific micromarket, an actual zip code doesn’t hold water. Obama doesn’t lose sleep about 92592. we are at 60% off, we are at mid 1990’s pricing, some are tied with 1991. Until exclipse joined in, I was the only one making that call, I went babe ruth, pointed at right field and I’ll suffer the consequences if wrong. I did not, repeat, did not, call bottom for any other area. most have much more to lose.

Harry, there is only one street in all of vail ranch that is larger than 3000 sq ft, it’s a fill in street on Valentino. Vail is entry level, mostly sub 2k sq ft without an hoa and has/will fall a little harder due to the smaller housing stock, poor condition, older homes and higher rental percentage, valentino is an anomoly, one street of nice, big houses in a low end neighborhood, $80 a square is a gift and not indicative of the market as a whole. The best house in the worst neighborhood is still not as good as the worst house in the best neighborhood.

Either way $80 is a fair sq ft price and is one of the factors I considered in calling bottom, I paid in the 80 range for morgan hill, with luck you can find it in morgan and redhawk, logic says it should be less as you move down the foodchain neighborhood wise. But it won’t be move in condition, one of the reasons for the spread, lot size/view, house size (smaller tends to have higher ppsf) etc can cause the 80-100 a square variation. If it goes 50-70 a square with regularity, then of course I won’t be able to show my face around here.

It isn’t pure supply and demand, because it isn’t in a vaccum, demand doesn’t have to come from the local population. When it reaches texas pricing, it becomes attractive to retirees or refugees from higher priced areas, something often overlooked.

Everyone has made their opinions known, all I ask is for anyone to quote a ppsf for an average house or a specific one. What do you think a 2500 redhawk house will fall to. They are about 250k now, with a plus or minus depending on various factors, if you think they will go to 150k, then call it, if you think they will hit 75k, then call it. I remember bearvine telling me that the houses i was looking at would get to the 250-300 range for over 3000 sq ft, near new in morgan, with lots of bells and whistles. They did for a few seconds, I took the bait, if it turns out I’m wrong then all I lost was some credibility online. Either way, I was paying 1500 to rent a condo, now I pay 2000 to own a house twice as large and after the tax deduxtion, it’s a wash. That, is why I called bottom. Because those condos I rented can be bought with an fha loan for 700 a month. Even with 20% unemployment, even if middle aged women have to work, they can buy a condo with their mall job, that is another reason for me calling bottom. Do you really think there is another 25 or 50% left in the downturn? Do you think that the apartment like condos on 79S that are going for 100k will be 50k, or the large townhouses with 2 car attached garages and yards off butterfield will go for 70k (140k is the going rate today). Really?

See, not all people read the financial horror stories, the normal folk look at their own numbers. If one cell phone service is half the price of another, they switch. If Wallmart is cheaper, they go there. And if they can actually save on rent, as much as 1/3 off by buying with as little as 3% down, they buy. They could give a crap what the pundits say.

[temeculaguy]

bob, you may be right but using the actions of the fed, the banks and the gov’t as an indicator of a specific micromarket, an actual zip code doesn’t hold water. Obama doesn’t lose sleep about 92592. we are at 60% off, we are at mid 1990’s pricing, some are tied with 1991. Until exclipse joined in, I was the only one making that call, I went babe ruth, pointed at right field and I’ll suffer the consequences if wrong. I did not, repeat, did not, call bottom for any other area. most have much more to lose.

Harry, there is only one street in all of vail ranch that is larger than 3000 sq ft, it’s a fill in street on Valentino. Vail is entry level, mostly sub 2k sq ft without an hoa and has/will fall a little harder due to the smaller housing stock, poor condition, older homes and higher rental percentage, valentino is an anomoly, one street of nice, big houses in a low end neighborhood, $80 a square is a gift and not indicative of the market as a whole. The best house in the worst neighborhood is still not as good as the worst house in the best neighborhood.

Either way $80 is a fair sq ft price and is one of the factors I considered in calling bottom, I paid in the 80 range for morgan hill, with luck you can find it in morgan and redhawk, logic says it should be less as you move down the foodchain neighborhood wise. But it won’t be move in condition, one of the reasons for the spread, lot size/view, house size (smaller tends to have higher ppsf) etc can cause the 80-100 a square variation. If it goes 50-70 a square with regularity, then of course I won’t be able to show my face around here.

It isn’t pure supply and demand, because it isn’t in a vaccum, demand doesn’t have to come from the local population. When it reaches texas pricing, it becomes attractive to retirees or refugees from higher priced areas, something often overlooked.

Everyone has made their opinions known, all I ask is for anyone to quote a ppsf for an average house or a specific one. What do you think a 2500 redhawk house will fall to. They are about 250k now, with a plus or minus depending on various factors, if you think they will go to 150k, then call it, if you think they will hit 75k, then call it. I remember bearvine telling me that the houses i was looking at would get to the 250-300 range for over 3000 sq ft, near new in morgan, with lots of bells and whistles. They did for a few seconds, I took the bait, if it turns out I’m wrong then all I lost was some credibility online. Either way, I was paying 1500 to rent a condo, now I pay 2000 to own a house twice as large and after the tax deduxtion, it’s a wash. That, is why I called bottom. Because those condos I rented can be bought with an fha loan for 700 a month. Even with 20% unemployment, even if middle aged women have to work, they can buy a condo with their mall job, that is another reason for me calling bottom. Do you really think there is another 25 or 50% left in the downturn? Do you think that the apartment like condos on 79S that are going for 100k will be 50k, or the large townhouses with 2 car attached garages and yards off butterfield will go for 70k (140k is the going rate today). Really?

See, not all people read the financial horror stories, the normal folk look at their own numbers. If one cell phone service is half the price of another, they switch. If Wallmart is cheaper, they go there. And if they can actually save on rent, as much as 1/3 off by buying with as little as 3% down, they buy. They could give a crap what the pundits say.

[temeculaguy]

That hotpads link is just realty trac fed data, it’s the same font, same info, same pics, they just cull data from realty trac. Yahoo does the same thing, check their foreclosures and it will look just the same and be just as inaccurate.

The bargains link is worse. I checked five props that I have knowledge of, all five are wrong.

I wont dispute the San Francisco article, I don’t disagree with your overall sentiment and I certainly agree that Temecula is ground zero. I’ve said for years it was the epicenter, I coined the “pain train” phrase/theory because of it. My argument is that because it was the epicenter is reason I’m calling bottom for this town and this town only. Because rent positive rentals appeared first, because prices are below construction cost, because new construction has stopped, because affordability has returned with a vengence, because it is the 3rd hottest market in the nation (according to forbes), because inventory is falling and has been for a few months, because it was so bad the last year or two that many of the homes have already changed hands and there just isn’t enough powder left in the cannon.

I understand that you are reading some websites and think it’s going to go to hell in a handbasket, but my positiopn is that it already did, the pain train came through and is now working it’s way through San Diego, hopefully for the piggies the gov’t wont derail it before it gets to their beloved carmel valley.

Youi sources for specific listings and foreclosures are not good sources, many realtors on these boards can confirm that and other data junkies will tell you that those sources are weak, at best.

The only way to decide this argument is time, so let’s revisit this thread in 3, 4, or 6 months and we will see how far temec goes down from now after the shadow inventory hits. If my tract falls to between $50 and $70 a square ft, you win, you can call me whatever you want, I’ll get a t-shirt that says “chump” and I’ll even look into a personalized license plate bearing the same or similar name. If it holds near the $85 mark that I paid, I win, and all you have to do is is create a thread that says “I should have listend to TG,” Deal?

[temeculaguy]

That hotpads link is just realty trac fed data, it’s the same font, same info, same pics, they just cull data from realty trac. Yahoo does the same thing, check their foreclosures and it will look just the same and be just as inaccurate.

The bargains link is worse. I checked five props that I have knowledge of, all five are wrong.

I wont dispute the San Francisco article, I don’t disagree with your overall sentiment and I certainly agree that Temecula is ground zero. I’ve said for years it was the epicenter, I coined the “pain train” phrase/theory because of it. My argument is that because it was the epicenter is reason I’m calling bottom for this town and this town only. Because rent positive rentals appeared first, because prices are below construction cost, because new construction has stopped, because affordability has returned with a vengence, because it is the 3rd hottest market in the nation (according to forbes), because inventory is falling and has been for a few months, because it was so bad the last year or two that many of the homes have already changed hands and there just isn’t enough powder left in the cannon.

I understand that you are reading some websites and think it’s going to go to hell in a handbasket, but my positiopn is that it already did, the pain train came through and is now working it’s way through San Diego, hopefully for the piggies the gov’t wont derail it before it gets to their beloved carmel valley.

Youi sources for specific listings and foreclosures are not good sources, many realtors on these boards can confirm that and other data junkies will tell you that those sources are weak, at best.

The only way to decide this argument is time, so let’s revisit this thread in 3, 4, or 6 months and we will see how far temec goes down from now after the shadow inventory hits. If my tract falls to between $50 and $70 a square ft, you win, you can call me whatever you want, I’ll get a t-shirt that says “chump” and I’ll even look into a personalized license plate bearing the same or similar name. If it holds near the $85 mark that I paid, I win, and all you have to do is is create a thread that says “I should have listend to TG,” Deal?

[temeculaguy]

That hotpads link is just realty trac fed data, it’s the same font, same info, same pics, they just cull data from realty trac. Yahoo does the same thing, check their foreclosures and it will look just the same and be just as inaccurate.

The bargains link is worse. I checked five props that I have knowledge of, all five are wrong.

I wont dispute the San Francisco article, I don’t disagree with your overall sentiment and I certainly agree that Temecula is ground zero. I’ve said for years it was the epicenter, I coined the “pain train” phrase/theory because of it. My argument is that because it was the epicenter is reason I’m calling bottom for this town and this town only. Because rent positive rentals appeared first, because prices are below construction cost, because new construction has stopped, because affordability has returned with a vengence, because it is the 3rd hottest market in the nation (according to forbes), because inventory is falling and has been for a few months, because it was so bad the last year or two that many of the homes have already changed hands and there just isn’t enough powder left in the cannon.

I understand that you are reading some websites and think it’s going to go to hell in a handbasket, but my positiopn is that it already did, the pain train came through and is now working it’s way through San Diego, hopefully for the piggies the gov’t wont derail it before it gets to their beloved carmel valley.

Youi sources for specific listings and foreclosures are not good sources, many realtors on these boards can confirm that and other data junkies will tell you that those sources are weak, at best.

The only way to decide this argument is time, so let’s revisit this thread in 3, 4, or 6 months and we will see how far temec goes down from now after the shadow inventory hits. If my tract falls to between $50 and $70 a square ft, you win, you can call me whatever you want, I’ll get a t-shirt that says “chump” and I’ll even look into a personalized license plate bearing the same or similar name. If it holds near the $85 mark that I paid, I win, and all you have to do is is create a thread that says “I should have listend to TG,” Deal?

[temeculaguy]

That hotpads link is just realty trac fed data, it’s the same font, same info, same pics, they just cull data from realty trac. Yahoo does the same thing, check their foreclosures and it will look just the same and be just as inaccurate.

The bargains link is worse. I checked five props that I have knowledge of, all five are wrong.

I wont dispute the San Francisco article, I don’t disagree with your overall sentiment and I certainly agree that Temecula is ground zero. I’ve said for years it was the epicenter, I coined the “pain train” phrase/theory because of it. My argument is that because it was the epicenter is reason I’m calling bottom for this town and this town only. Because rent positive rentals appeared first, because prices are below construction cost, because new construction has stopped, because affordability has returned with a vengence, because it is the 3rd hottest market in the nation (according to forbes), because inventory is falling and has been for a few months, because it was so bad the last year or two that many of the homes have already changed hands and there just isn’t enough powder left in the cannon.

I understand that you are reading some websites and think it’s going to go to hell in a handbasket, but my positiopn is that it already did, the pain train came through and is now working it’s way through San Diego, hopefully for the piggies the gov’t wont derail it before it gets to their beloved carmel valley.

Youi sources for specific listings and foreclosures are not good sources, many realtors on these boards can confirm that and other data junkies will tell you that those sources are weak, at best.

The only way to decide this argument is time, so let’s revisit this thread in 3, 4, or 6 months and we will see how far temec goes down from now after the shadow inventory hits. If my tract falls to between $50 and $70 a square ft, you win, you can call me whatever you want, I’ll get a t-shirt that says “chump” and I’ll even look into a personalized license plate bearing the same or similar name. If it holds near the $85 mark that I paid, I win, and all you have to do is is create a thread that says “I should have listend to TG,” Deal?

[temeculaguy]

That hotpads link is just realty trac fed data, it’s the same font, same info, same pics, they just cull data from realty trac. Yahoo does the same thing, check their foreclosures and it will look just the same and be just as inaccurate.

The bargains link is worse. I checked five props that I have knowledge of, all five are wrong.

I wont dispute the San Francisco article, I don’t disagree with your overall sentiment and I certainly agree that Temecula is ground zero. I’ve said for years it was the epicenter, I coined the “pain train” phrase/theory because of it. My argument is that because it was the epicenter is reason I’m calling bottom for this town and this town only. Because rent positive rentals appeared first, because prices are below construction cost, because new construction has stopped, because affordability has returned with a vengence, because it is the 3rd hottest market in the nation (according to forbes), because inventory is falling and has been for a few months, because it was so bad the last year or two that many of the homes have already changed hands and there just isn’t enough powder left in the cannon.

I understand that you are reading some websites and think it’s going to go to hell in a handbasket, but my positiopn is that it already did, the pain train came through and is now working it’s way through San Diego, hopefully for the piggies the gov’t wont derail it before it gets to their beloved carmel valley.

Youi sources for specific listings and foreclosures are not good sources, many realtors on these boards can confirm that and other data junkies will tell you that those sources are weak, at best.

The only way to decide this argument is time, so let’s revisit this thread in 3, 4, or 6 months and we will see how far temec goes down from now after the shadow inventory hits. If my tract falls to between $50 and $70 a square ft, you win, you can call me whatever you want, I’ll get a t-shirt that says “chump” and I’ll even look into a personalized license plate bearing the same or similar name. If it holds near the $85 mark that I paid, I win, and all you have to do is is create a thread that says “I should have listend to TG,” Deal?

[temeculaguy]

FHA loans have a cieling, not sure but it was 417k, it’s usually at or below conforming.

Hey, here’s a novel idea, buy a house that you can afford on the 125k and then if you keep the second income, live like a rockstar or pay off the house in just a few years, underextending is the new black. Keep your credit rating, sleep well, eat well and drink well. I paid a little over two years pay for my place and I can attest that the peace of mind of underextending is fabulous. It will give you room to play the stock market, contemplate rentals or do whatever. Sinking it all in your primary is so 2006.

[Author]

Posts