[temeculaguy]

No sweat, like you said I’m a big boy, I can take it and I know none of this is directed at me, just my position sometimes, an elbow to the chest is not a flagrant 2, it’s just playoff basketball. My primary residence is not my only planned purchase on this down part of the cycle, which is part of the reason I stay tuned in. I hope to come away with at least one rental before this thing turns. This is why I chose to underextend myself on the primary and why there is no porsche in the garage. My references to stocks and missed opportunity was part of that master plan because financing for rentals is tight right now, I had hoped to parlay into a larger down payment or a cash position because some condos involved in class action suits against the builder cannot get any form of financing right now and I see bargains on those because the only play is a cash play, however I failed in that little experiment, but I digress. I was happy in my rental, I’m happy in the new pad and I fully plan on being happy chasing old ladies in a rest home, it’s never about happy, it’s just math.

I wasn’t emulating the msm, they probably read boards like this and steal our ideas anyway. My conclusions are based on affordabity fundamentals, and prices relative to rent multipliers and the priced compared to the last few cycles (the reason I set my goal at 2001 pricing in nominal terms not inflation adjusted). These fundamentals kept me out of r/e in 06, 07 and until the last few days of 08, so I’m dancing with the one that brung me. If the msm decides this is their story today, they are late to the party, I learned it here and I learned it long ago, I didn’t make this stuff up, Rich did, as well as many ghosts of piggington past. I can point to countless posts in the past where I referenced these metrics and opined for a return to them, when they arrived, I embraced them. Now the rental(s) is a different story, I have to factor in other people’s ability to pay rent, not my ability to afford my primary, so the strike price and the rental stability is a huge issue and they do involve the macro market and employment, for those reasons I have elected to wait and see if the shadow inventory comes, plus the type of places I am evaluating as rentals have more unstable and overleveraged current owners, the speculators of 2006 are getting killed on their rentals because they needed appreciation, the counted on it and they will let their rental go before their primary and the loan mods and government programs are less likely to help them, in fact the gov’t seems to hate them.

Allan-sorry about macanudo knock, you are right, they make a nice mid level cigar that I’ve found appeals to most guests and I like them as well. I like certain $7 cabs from costco. As a host I’d never give guests one cigar and myself another, so those and rocky patel 1990’s and 1992’s are the “house” brand. If I find myself enjoying a smoke with a serious smoker, then we can break out the $20 sticks and get all geeked out about it, however blended scoth is not permitted on the premises, I believe the moose out front should have told you.

[temeculaguy]

No sweat, like you said I’m a big boy, I can take it and I know none of this is directed at me, just my position sometimes, an elbow to the chest is not a flagrant 2, it’s just playoff basketball. My primary residence is not my only planned purchase on this down part of the cycle, which is part of the reason I stay tuned in. I hope to come away with at least one rental before this thing turns. This is why I chose to underextend myself on the primary and why there is no porsche in the garage. My references to stocks and missed opportunity was part of that master plan because financing for rentals is tight right now, I had hoped to parlay into a larger down payment or a cash position because some condos involved in class action suits against the builder cannot get any form of financing right now and I see bargains on those because the only play is a cash play, however I failed in that little experiment, but I digress. I was happy in my rental, I’m happy in the new pad and I fully plan on being happy chasing old ladies in a rest home, it’s never about happy, it’s just math.

I wasn’t emulating the msm, they probably read boards like this and steal our ideas anyway. My conclusions are based on affordabity fundamentals, and prices relative to rent multipliers and the priced compared to the last few cycles (the reason I set my goal at 2001 pricing in nominal terms not inflation adjusted). These fundamentals kept me out of r/e in 06, 07 and until the last few days of 08, so I’m dancing with the one that brung me. If the msm decides this is their story today, they are late to the party, I learned it here and I learned it long ago, I didn’t make this stuff up, Rich did, as well as many ghosts of piggington past. I can point to countless posts in the past where I referenced these metrics and opined for a return to them, when they arrived, I embraced them. Now the rental(s) is a different story, I have to factor in other people’s ability to pay rent, not my ability to afford my primary, so the strike price and the rental stability is a huge issue and they do involve the macro market and employment, for those reasons I have elected to wait and see if the shadow inventory comes, plus the type of places I am evaluating as rentals have more unstable and overleveraged current owners, the speculators of 2006 are getting killed on their rentals because they needed appreciation, the counted on it and they will let their rental go before their primary and the loan mods and government programs are less likely to help them, in fact the gov’t seems to hate them.

Allan-sorry about macanudo knock, you are right, they make a nice mid level cigar that I’ve found appeals to most guests and I like them as well. I like certain $7 cabs from costco. As a host I’d never give guests one cigar and myself another, so those and rocky patel 1990’s and 1992’s are the “house” brand. If I find myself enjoying a smoke with a serious smoker, then we can break out the $20 sticks and get all geeked out about it, however blended scoth is not permitted on the premises, I believe the moose out front should have told you.

[temeculaguy]

No sweat, like you said I’m a big boy, I can take it and I know none of this is directed at me, just my position sometimes, an elbow to the chest is not a flagrant 2, it’s just playoff basketball. My primary residence is not my only planned purchase on this down part of the cycle, which is part of the reason I stay tuned in. I hope to come away with at least one rental before this thing turns. This is why I chose to underextend myself on the primary and why there is no porsche in the garage. My references to stocks and missed opportunity was part of that master plan because financing for rentals is tight right now, I had hoped to parlay into a larger down payment or a cash position because some condos involved in class action suits against the builder cannot get any form of financing right now and I see bargains on those because the only play is a cash play, however I failed in that little experiment, but I digress. I was happy in my rental, I’m happy in the new pad and I fully plan on being happy chasing old ladies in a rest home, it’s never about happy, it’s just math.

I wasn’t emulating the msm, they probably read boards like this and steal our ideas anyway. My conclusions are based on affordabity fundamentals, and prices relative to rent multipliers and the priced compared to the last few cycles (the reason I set my goal at 2001 pricing in nominal terms not inflation adjusted). These fundamentals kept me out of r/e in 06, 07 and until the last few days of 08, so I’m dancing with the one that brung me. If the msm decides this is their story today, they are late to the party, I learned it here and I learned it long ago, I didn’t make this stuff up, Rich did, as well as many ghosts of piggington past. I can point to countless posts in the past where I referenced these metrics and opined for a return to them, when they arrived, I embraced them. Now the rental(s) is a different story, I have to factor in other people’s ability to pay rent, not my ability to afford my primary, so the strike price and the rental stability is a huge issue and they do involve the macro market and employment, for those reasons I have elected to wait and see if the shadow inventory comes, plus the type of places I am evaluating as rentals have more unstable and overleveraged current owners, the speculators of 2006 are getting killed on their rentals because they needed appreciation, the counted on it and they will let their rental go before their primary and the loan mods and government programs are less likely to help them, in fact the gov’t seems to hate them.

Allan-sorry about macanudo knock, you are right, they make a nice mid level cigar that I’ve found appeals to most guests and I like them as well. I like certain $7 cabs from costco. As a host I’d never give guests one cigar and myself another, so those and rocky patel 1990’s and 1992’s are the “house” brand. If I find myself enjoying a smoke with a serious smoker, then we can break out the $20 sticks and get all geeked out about it, however blended scoth is not permitted on the premises, I believe the moose out front should have told you.

[temeculaguy]

No sweat, like you said I’m a big boy, I can take it and I know none of this is directed at me, just my position sometimes, an elbow to the chest is not a flagrant 2, it’s just playoff basketball. My primary residence is not my only planned purchase on this down part of the cycle, which is part of the reason I stay tuned in. I hope to come away with at least one rental before this thing turns. This is why I chose to underextend myself on the primary and why there is no porsche in the garage. My references to stocks and missed opportunity was part of that master plan because financing for rentals is tight right now, I had hoped to parlay into a larger down payment or a cash position because some condos involved in class action suits against the builder cannot get any form of financing right now and I see bargains on those because the only play is a cash play, however I failed in that little experiment, but I digress. I was happy in my rental, I’m happy in the new pad and I fully plan on being happy chasing old ladies in a rest home, it’s never about happy, it’s just math.

I wasn’t emulating the msm, they probably read boards like this and steal our ideas anyway. My conclusions are based on affordabity fundamentals, and prices relative to rent multipliers and the priced compared to the last few cycles (the reason I set my goal at 2001 pricing in nominal terms not inflation adjusted). These fundamentals kept me out of r/e in 06, 07 and until the last few days of 08, so I’m dancing with the one that brung me. If the msm decides this is their story today, they are late to the party, I learned it here and I learned it long ago, I didn’t make this stuff up, Rich did, as well as many ghosts of piggington past. I can point to countless posts in the past where I referenced these metrics and opined for a return to them, when they arrived, I embraced them. Now the rental(s) is a different story, I have to factor in other people’s ability to pay rent, not my ability to afford my primary, so the strike price and the rental stability is a huge issue and they do involve the macro market and employment, for those reasons I have elected to wait and see if the shadow inventory comes, plus the type of places I am evaluating as rentals have more unstable and overleveraged current owners, the speculators of 2006 are getting killed on their rentals because they needed appreciation, the counted on it and they will let their rental go before their primary and the loan mods and government programs are less likely to help them, in fact the gov’t seems to hate them.

Allan-sorry about macanudo knock, you are right, they make a nice mid level cigar that I’ve found appeals to most guests and I like them as well. I like certain $7 cabs from costco. As a host I’d never give guests one cigar and myself another, so those and rocky patel 1990’s and 1992’s are the “house” brand. If I find myself enjoying a smoke with a serious smoker, then we can break out the $20 sticks and get all geeked out about it, however blended scoth is not permitted on the premises, I believe the moose out front should have told you.

[temeculaguy]

Good move les, by 3/18 I was waiting on the pullback that never came, now I’m envious of you for having stops at profit levels, that was my original plan, now I just play imaginary games in my head like i do when I buy lotto tickets. It’s so fun to play with house money, to either put a stop at 2x your invesment or sell half and then forget about it, I love “can’t lose” bets like that, just have to get the stones for the original jump. I’m gonna stay strong and wait for the next entry but I have my doubts if I will ever see it again. On the plus side, my legs now have amazing flexibility and strength from the repeated times I’ve kicked my own ass for being a wuus.

BTW, the macanudos were out because I was sharing with non cigar smokers, one time I gave an arturo fuente don carlos double robusto to a novice smoker and he took three puffs and snubbed it out on the ground, I cried. Now I keep some macs and rocky patels for sharing (and some flavored ones for the womenfolk), plus having really nice library cigar provides me too much pleasure to engage in meaningful analysis and discussion, I turn into a blob of contentment.

[temeculaguy]

Good move les, by 3/18 I was waiting on the pullback that never came, now I’m envious of you for having stops at profit levels, that was my original plan, now I just play imaginary games in my head like i do when I buy lotto tickets. It’s so fun to play with house money, to either put a stop at 2x your invesment or sell half and then forget about it, I love “can’t lose” bets like that, just have to get the stones for the original jump. I’m gonna stay strong and wait for the next entry but I have my doubts if I will ever see it again. On the plus side, my legs now have amazing flexibility and strength from the repeated times I’ve kicked my own ass for being a wuus.

BTW, the macanudos were out because I was sharing with non cigar smokers, one time I gave an arturo fuente don carlos double robusto to a novice smoker and he took three puffs and snubbed it out on the ground, I cried. Now I keep some macs and rocky patels for sharing (and some flavored ones for the womenfolk), plus having really nice library cigar provides me too much pleasure to engage in meaningful analysis and discussion, I turn into a blob of contentment.

[temeculaguy]

Good move les, by 3/18 I was waiting on the pullback that never came, now I’m envious of you for having stops at profit levels, that was my original plan, now I just play imaginary games in my head like i do when I buy lotto tickets. It’s so fun to play with house money, to either put a stop at 2x your invesment or sell half and then forget about it, I love “can’t lose” bets like that, just have to get the stones for the original jump. I’m gonna stay strong and wait for the next entry but I have my doubts if I will ever see it again. On the plus side, my legs now have amazing flexibility and strength from the repeated times I’ve kicked my own ass for being a wuus.

BTW, the macanudos were out because I was sharing with non cigar smokers, one time I gave an arturo fuente don carlos double robusto to a novice smoker and he took three puffs and snubbed it out on the ground, I cried. Now I keep some macs and rocky patels for sharing (and some flavored ones for the womenfolk), plus having really nice library cigar provides me too much pleasure to engage in meaningful analysis and discussion, I turn into a blob of contentment.

[temeculaguy]

Good move les, by 3/18 I was waiting on the pullback that never came, now I’m envious of you for having stops at profit levels, that was my original plan, now I just play imaginary games in my head like i do when I buy lotto tickets. It’s so fun to play with house money, to either put a stop at 2x your invesment or sell half and then forget about it, I love “can’t lose” bets like that, just have to get the stones for the original jump. I’m gonna stay strong and wait for the next entry but I have my doubts if I will ever see it again. On the plus side, my legs now have amazing flexibility and strength from the repeated times I’ve kicked my own ass for being a wuus.

BTW, the macanudos were out because I was sharing with non cigar smokers, one time I gave an arturo fuente don carlos double robusto to a novice smoker and he took three puffs and snubbed it out on the ground, I cried. Now I keep some macs and rocky patels for sharing (and some flavored ones for the womenfolk), plus having really nice library cigar provides me too much pleasure to engage in meaningful analysis and discussion, I turn into a blob of contentment.

[temeculaguy]

Good move les, by 3/18 I was waiting on the pullback that never came, now I’m envious of you for having stops at profit levels, that was my original plan, now I just play imaginary games in my head like i do when I buy lotto tickets. It’s so fun to play with house money, to either put a stop at 2x your invesment or sell half and then forget about it, I love “can’t lose” bets like that, just have to get the stones for the original jump. I’m gonna stay strong and wait for the next entry but I have my doubts if I will ever see it again. On the plus side, my legs now have amazing flexibility and strength from the repeated times I’ve kicked my own ass for being a wuus.

BTW, the macanudos were out because I was sharing with non cigar smokers, one time I gave an arturo fuente don carlos double robusto to a novice smoker and he took three puffs and snubbed it out on the ground, I cried. Now I keep some macs and rocky patels for sharing (and some flavored ones for the womenfolk), plus having really nice library cigar provides me too much pleasure to engage in meaningful analysis and discussion, I turn into a blob of contentment.

[temeculaguy]

It’s probably the water, there is nothing screwier than water law. I took an entire class in college on riparian water rights and while i never quite understood it, it’s completely unique from other utilities. Some areas have very high water rates, sometimes multiples of other places nearby. Sometimes it’s about being at the end of the line so to speak, or far from a supply that they do not own. Intermediate water districts that buy their water also sell it to the next town and the proceeds lower their town’s bill because of the laws that regulate profit, but the guy at the end gets screwed. His district isn’t profitting more, they just pay more because they are subsidizing everyone along the way from the source, as the water becomes more scarce, his price will rise even higher in comparison. If he had enough trees to become an actual farm, their rates are entirely different, in some districts, ag users can pay a fraction of residential rates. With gas and electric, there aren’t as severe of swings in rates. Places that are elevated and far from water get to pay all the middle men and then the delivery charge. Electric price per kw is fairly stable from town to town as is gas or propane but water can have much more variance by area.

This is why in places with insane water rates, many people have wells. Unfortunately, from parcel to parcel, the ability to have a well can also vary and it is used as a selling point if it has a good well, if it doesn’t, it is worth far less.

http://www.nbcsandiego.com/weather/stories/Water-Shortage-Higher-Prices-Doom-Escondido-Farmers.html?corder=reverse

[temeculaguy]

It’s probably the water, there is nothing screwier than water law. I took an entire class in college on riparian water rights and while i never quite understood it, it’s completely unique from other utilities. Some areas have very high water rates, sometimes multiples of other places nearby. Sometimes it’s about being at the end of the line so to speak, or far from a supply that they do not own. Intermediate water districts that buy their water also sell it to the next town and the proceeds lower their town’s bill because of the laws that regulate profit, but the guy at the end gets screwed. His district isn’t profitting more, they just pay more because they are subsidizing everyone along the way from the source, as the water becomes more scarce, his price will rise even higher in comparison. If he had enough trees to become an actual farm, their rates are entirely different, in some districts, ag users can pay a fraction of residential rates. With gas and electric, there aren’t as severe of swings in rates. Places that are elevated and far from water get to pay all the middle men and then the delivery charge. Electric price per kw is fairly stable from town to town as is gas or propane but water can have much more variance by area.

This is why in places with insane water rates, many people have wells. Unfortunately, from parcel to parcel, the ability to have a well can also vary and it is used as a selling point if it has a good well, if it doesn’t, it is worth far less.

http://www.nbcsandiego.com/weather/stories/Water-Shortage-Higher-Prices-Doom-Escondido-Farmers.html?corder=reverse

[temeculaguy]

It’s probably the water, there is nothing screwier than water law. I took an entire class in college on riparian water rights and while i never quite understood it, it’s completely unique from other utilities. Some areas have very high water rates, sometimes multiples of other places nearby. Sometimes it’s about being at the end of the line so to speak, or far from a supply that they do not own. Intermediate water districts that buy their water also sell it to the next town and the proceeds lower their town’s bill because of the laws that regulate profit, but the guy at the end gets screwed. His district isn’t profitting more, they just pay more because they are subsidizing everyone along the way from the source, as the water becomes more scarce, his price will rise even higher in comparison. If he had enough trees to become an actual farm, their rates are entirely different, in some districts, ag users can pay a fraction of residential rates. With gas and electric, there aren’t as severe of swings in rates. Places that are elevated and far from water get to pay all the middle men and then the delivery charge. Electric price per kw is fairly stable from town to town as is gas or propane but water can have much more variance by area.

This is why in places with insane water rates, many people have wells. Unfortunately, from parcel to parcel, the ability to have a well can also vary and it is used as a selling point if it has a good well, if it doesn’t, it is worth far less.

http://www.nbcsandiego.com/weather/stories/Water-Shortage-Higher-Prices-Doom-Escondido-Farmers.html?corder=reverse

[temeculaguy]

It’s probably the water, there is nothing screwier than water law. I took an entire class in college on riparian water rights and while i never quite understood it, it’s completely unique from other utilities. Some areas have very high water rates, sometimes multiples of other places nearby. Sometimes it’s about being at the end of the line so to speak, or far from a supply that they do not own. Intermediate water districts that buy their water also sell it to the next town and the proceeds lower their town’s bill because of the laws that regulate profit, but the guy at the end gets screwed. His district isn’t profitting more, they just pay more because they are subsidizing everyone along the way from the source, as the water becomes more scarce, his price will rise even higher in comparison. If he had enough trees to become an actual farm, their rates are entirely different, in some districts, ag users can pay a fraction of residential rates. With gas and electric, there aren’t as severe of swings in rates. Places that are elevated and far from water get to pay all the middle men and then the delivery charge. Electric price per kw is fairly stable from town to town as is gas or propane but water can have much more variance by area.

This is why in places with insane water rates, many people have wells. Unfortunately, from parcel to parcel, the ability to have a well can also vary and it is used as a selling point if it has a good well, if it doesn’t, it is worth far less.

http://www.nbcsandiego.com/weather/stories/Water-Shortage-Higher-Prices-Doom-Escondido-Farmers.html?corder=reverse

[temeculaguy]

It’s probably the water, there is nothing screwier than water law. I took an entire class in college on riparian water rights and while i never quite understood it, it’s completely unique from other utilities. Some areas have very high water rates, sometimes multiples of other places nearby. Sometimes it’s about being at the end of the line so to speak, or far from a supply that they do not own. Intermediate water districts that buy their water also sell it to the next town and the proceeds lower their town’s bill because of the laws that regulate profit, but the guy at the end gets screwed. His district isn’t profitting more, they just pay more because they are subsidizing everyone along the way from the source, as the water becomes more scarce, his price will rise even higher in comparison. If he had enough trees to become an actual farm, their rates are entirely different, in some districts, ag users can pay a fraction of residential rates. With gas and electric, there aren’t as severe of swings in rates. Places that are elevated and far from water get to pay all the middle men and then the delivery charge. Electric price per kw is fairly stable from town to town as is gas or propane but water can have much more variance by area.

This is why in places with insane water rates, many people have wells. Unfortunately, from parcel to parcel, the ability to have a well can also vary and it is used as a selling point if it has a good well, if it doesn’t, it is worth far less.

http://www.nbcsandiego.com/weather/stories/Water-Shortage-Higher-Prices-Doom-Escondido-Farmers.html?corder=reverse

[temeculaguy]

Ok I watched most of the Norris stuff, I’m still confused a little, there are some contradictions. I did a little research on the guy and he gets points for being interviewed in 2006 by the oc register and his predictions were fairly accurate, however he loses some credibility because he sells a program and training that has an infomercial feel to it. Plus, he wasn’t the only one that thought we were heading for a crash, but to his credit, he was fairly vocal, fairly early.

But I watch the interviews and he advised his daughter to buy in Moreno Valley right now, he says that the prices are below cost and below rent, that makes sense to me. Then he talks of the shadow inventory and the big wave coming onto the market starting now and ending in about 18 months and that graduates of his course have used his methods to buy condos for 30k that rent for $1100, but then he says he bought homes in S.D. in December knowing he could flip them now in the low inventory frenzy and that he will buy and hold in the next wave, not flip. That kinda makes sense too, well, except for the part about the 30k condos if you take his training.

My trouble is he has placed both bets, unless he wants to clarify about micro markets, he never did that, he mentioned various markets and scenarios but then is on the first interview saying there has never been a better time, 4.5%, cheaper than rent, buy, buy, buy! But in the second interview he says the market will be flooded very soon so wait, wait, wait! The interviews were in the same week. If he was a poster on this site he’d be crucified for playing both sides, if he thinks one town is a buy and another is a wait, then he needs to be more clear. Or is he saying everything and the consumer (those who pay for his advice/training) just hear the part they want to hear. I don’t have the answer, he seems a lot more in tune than other “get rich quick” guys peddling strategies, but I have these nagging questions, perhaps he doesn’t answer them all on purpose so you pay to hear the rest, and that is where you lose me. There are three choices of characters to play in this game, he can be the guy who has all the answers and makes the right plays or you get to be the sage and dispense free advice, or you can be the guy who makes his real money from selling the info without the risk. You can’t be a combination of any of them, you can’t be the seller of info while being the guy who plays the game, because the real player doesn’t want the competition, if he tells everyone the secret, then it’s no longer a secret.

[Author]

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