[temeculaguy]

Okay, so depression has increased according to some study. And was there a similar study each decade for the last few hundred years using the same criteria? That’s the problem with trying to measure something quantitatively when the measuring stick keeps changing.

I call bullshit on the whole societal decay thing again, especially the argument that because we aren’t affected, we can’t see it happening.

I still didn’t see anyone pick a decade so we can see it’s gone downhill since then. Nobody will, because I will pick apart that decade and bring up all of it’s flaws. We all know that society was worse last year, last decade, last century and so on, picking a date in time is walking into a buzz saw. Sure there are bits and pieces that might be better, but overall, society moves forward and gets better, if you look at the big picture and the individual experience.

Pick a group or a person, throw some labels on them and then plot their experience on a timeline, you tell me when in time their life was better if it is not today. And I’m also convinced that next year and the year after that, it will be even better. Here, I’ll do the first few for you:

Black people-Let’s see the 1700’s and 1800’s sucked pretty hard with that whole slavery thing. The early 1900’s was no picnic but did get better. Segregation went away over time, education began catching up, professional jobs (doctors,lawyers, etc.) starting showing up. They allowed them to play in the professional sports leagues about 60 years ago, they could marry out of their race eventually. Now look at today, the president is black, half of the most powerful and popular media figures are black, most people under 30 cannot even fathom what things were like in the 50’s and earlier. Is it perfect? No. Is it better every day? Yes.

American Indians-similar to the above situation but with some variations, the 1800’s were pretty crappy, with that whole genocide thing. Today many of them have some money, power and influence. Education is starting to happen and they are once again walking around proud of who they are. Has money been the doenfall of some, are some stll living in poverty? Yes. Was being rounded up, having their food supply destroyed and being slaughtered worse? Yes.

Gays-This one is pretty easy, I doubt anyone would rather be gay and live during another decade.

I’ll stop there, but I could detail every racial group, women of those groups and white women. Poor people never really need to worry about dying of starvation anymore.

Do you really think that a black woman in 2011 who takes zoloft for depression would be happier as a slave in 1820 working in a field, or sitting int the back of a bus in 1945. You can exchange the black woman for a gay teenager or whatever you want. Just because people seek treatment for mild depression does not mean we are going to hell in a hand basket. They are merely taking care of minor issues that in previous decades during history they did not have the time or the means to seek treatment. When everything else is so shitty, you don’t notice the little things. If you had four bullet wounds to your chest, you wouldn’t care about needing some stitches for a cut on your arm. Just because more people are getting stitches now doesnt mean they are getting hurt more, it means that they don’t have bullet wounds and they can deal with the minor issues.

It’s still not perfect, but more people today feel that they matter, that they are important, that they are beautiful and they have something to offer than at any other time in history. Chasing ones dreams is no longer something reserved for the elite, reaching your goals is more possible than ever before, for everyone. There is still failure and disapointment, but there less glass cielings, less judgement and less societal pressure to be something you are not and I know that will continue. I’m not being optimistic, I’m being realistic, the evidence is everywhere if you just look.

One group has been getting screwed, smokers. I’m one of those drinker smokers who does it maybe once a month. In social setting or casinos when I’m drinking, I’m smoking cigars or cigarettes. 99% of the time I’m in the non smoking group and 1% I’m with the smokers, it’s like being black for a day and seeing what their experience is like. The last two times this happened I almost beat someone and I got pretty mean both times. A smoking card table in the smoking section of a casino or the smoking patio at a bar are about the only places left you can drink and smoke in public, the other 99.9% of the planet is yours so if you choose to go to that particular spot, I do not give a s^&* if it bothers you. I don’t follow you into the stall in the restroom, put my head next to the bowl while are sitting and ask you if you could please not do anything that smells bad. I can see the smokers starting riots, non smokers are so freaking annoying.

[temeculaguy]

Okay, so depression has increased according to some study. And was there a similar study each decade for the last few hundred years using the same criteria? That’s the problem with trying to measure something quantitatively when the measuring stick keeps changing.

I call bullshit on the whole societal decay thing again, especially the argument that because we aren’t affected, we can’t see it happening.

I still didn’t see anyone pick a decade so we can see it’s gone downhill since then. Nobody will, because I will pick apart that decade and bring up all of it’s flaws. We all know that society was worse last year, last decade, last century and so on, picking a date in time is walking into a buzz saw. Sure there are bits and pieces that might be better, but overall, society moves forward and gets better, if you look at the big picture and the individual experience.

Pick a group or a person, throw some labels on them and then plot their experience on a timeline, you tell me when in time their life was better if it is not today. And I’m also convinced that next year and the year after that, it will be even better. Here, I’ll do the first few for you:

Black people-Let’s see the 1700’s and 1800’s sucked pretty hard with that whole slavery thing. The early 1900’s was no picnic but did get better. Segregation went away over time, education began catching up, professional jobs (doctors,lawyers, etc.) starting showing up. They allowed them to play in the professional sports leagues about 60 years ago, they could marry out of their race eventually. Now look at today, the president is black, half of the most powerful and popular media figures are black, most people under 30 cannot even fathom what things were like in the 50’s and earlier. Is it perfect? No. Is it better every day? Yes.

American Indians-similar to the above situation but with some variations, the 1800’s were pretty crappy, with that whole genocide thing. Today many of them have some money, power and influence. Education is starting to happen and they are once again walking around proud of who they are. Has money been the doenfall of some, are some stll living in poverty? Yes. Was being rounded up, having their food supply destroyed and being slaughtered worse? Yes.

Gays-This one is pretty easy, I doubt anyone would rather be gay and live during another decade.

I’ll stop there, but I could detail every racial group, women of those groups and white women. Poor people never really need to worry about dying of starvation anymore.

Do you really think that a black woman in 2011 who takes zoloft for depression would be happier as a slave in 1820 working in a field, or sitting int the back of a bus in 1945. You can exchange the black woman for a gay teenager or whatever you want. Just because people seek treatment for mild depression does not mean we are going to hell in a hand basket. They are merely taking care of minor issues that in previous decades during history they did not have the time or the means to seek treatment. When everything else is so shitty, you don’t notice the little things. If you had four bullet wounds to your chest, you wouldn’t care about needing some stitches for a cut on your arm. Just because more people are getting stitches now doesnt mean they are getting hurt more, it means that they don’t have bullet wounds and they can deal with the minor issues.

It’s still not perfect, but more people today feel that they matter, that they are important, that they are beautiful and they have something to offer than at any other time in history. Chasing ones dreams is no longer something reserved for the elite, reaching your goals is more possible than ever before, for everyone. There is still failure and disapointment, but there less glass cielings, less judgement and less societal pressure to be something you are not and I know that will continue. I’m not being optimistic, I’m being realistic, the evidence is everywhere if you just look.

One group has been getting screwed, smokers. I’m one of those drinker smokers who does it maybe once a month. In social setting or casinos when I’m drinking, I’m smoking cigars or cigarettes. 99% of the time I’m in the non smoking group and 1% I’m with the smokers, it’s like being black for a day and seeing what their experience is like. The last two times this happened I almost beat someone and I got pretty mean both times. A smoking card table in the smoking section of a casino or the smoking patio at a bar are about the only places left you can drink and smoke in public, the other 99.9% of the planet is yours so if you choose to go to that particular spot, I do not give a s^&* if it bothers you. I don’t follow you into the stall in the restroom, put my head next to the bowl while are sitting and ask you if you could please not do anything that smells bad. I can see the smokers starting riots, non smokers are so freaking annoying.

[temeculaguy]

Okay, so depression has increased according to some study. And was there a similar study each decade for the last few hundred years using the same criteria? That’s the problem with trying to measure something quantitatively when the measuring stick keeps changing.

I call bullshit on the whole societal decay thing again, especially the argument that because we aren’t affected, we can’t see it happening.

I still didn’t see anyone pick a decade so we can see it’s gone downhill since then. Nobody will, because I will pick apart that decade and bring up all of it’s flaws. We all know that society was worse last year, last decade, last century and so on, picking a date in time is walking into a buzz saw. Sure there are bits and pieces that might be better, but overall, society moves forward and gets better, if you look at the big picture and the individual experience.

Pick a group or a person, throw some labels on them and then plot their experience on a timeline, you tell me when in time their life was better if it is not today. And I’m also convinced that next year and the year after that, it will be even better. Here, I’ll do the first few for you:

Black people-Let’s see the 1700’s and 1800’s sucked pretty hard with that whole slavery thing. The early 1900’s was no picnic but did get better. Segregation went away over time, education began catching up, professional jobs (doctors,lawyers, etc.) starting showing up. They allowed them to play in the professional sports leagues about 60 years ago, they could marry out of their race eventually. Now look at today, the president is black, half of the most powerful and popular media figures are black, most people under 30 cannot even fathom what things were like in the 50’s and earlier. Is it perfect? No. Is it better every day? Yes.

American Indians-similar to the above situation but with some variations, the 1800’s were pretty crappy, with that whole genocide thing. Today many of them have some money, power and influence. Education is starting to happen and they are once again walking around proud of who they are. Has money been the doenfall of some, are some stll living in poverty? Yes. Was being rounded up, having their food supply destroyed and being slaughtered worse? Yes.

Gays-This one is pretty easy, I doubt anyone would rather be gay and live during another decade.

I’ll stop there, but I could detail every racial group, women of those groups and white women. Poor people never really need to worry about dying of starvation anymore.

Do you really think that a black woman in 2011 who takes zoloft for depression would be happier as a slave in 1820 working in a field, or sitting int the back of a bus in 1945. You can exchange the black woman for a gay teenager or whatever you want. Just because people seek treatment for mild depression does not mean we are going to hell in a hand basket. They are merely taking care of minor issues that in previous decades during history they did not have the time or the means to seek treatment. When everything else is so shitty, you don’t notice the little things. If you had four bullet wounds to your chest, you wouldn’t care about needing some stitches for a cut on your arm. Just because more people are getting stitches now doesnt mean they are getting hurt more, it means that they don’t have bullet wounds and they can deal with the minor issues.

It’s still not perfect, but more people today feel that they matter, that they are important, that they are beautiful and they have something to offer than at any other time in history. Chasing ones dreams is no longer something reserved for the elite, reaching your goals is more possible than ever before, for everyone. There is still failure and disapointment, but there less glass cielings, less judgement and less societal pressure to be something you are not and I know that will continue. I’m not being optimistic, I’m being realistic, the evidence is everywhere if you just look.

One group has been getting screwed, smokers. I’m one of those drinker smokers who does it maybe once a month. In social setting or casinos when I’m drinking, I’m smoking cigars or cigarettes. 99% of the time I’m in the non smoking group and 1% I’m with the smokers, it’s like being black for a day and seeing what their experience is like. The last two times this happened I almost beat someone and I got pretty mean both times. A smoking card table in the smoking section of a casino or the smoking patio at a bar are about the only places left you can drink and smoke in public, the other 99.9% of the planet is yours so if you choose to go to that particular spot, I do not give a s^&* if it bothers you. I don’t follow you into the stall in the restroom, put my head next to the bowl while are sitting and ask you if you could please not do anything that smells bad. I can see the smokers starting riots, non smokers are so freaking annoying.

[temeculaguy]

Okay, so depression has increased according to some study. And was there a similar study each decade for the last few hundred years using the same criteria? That’s the problem with trying to measure something quantitatively when the measuring stick keeps changing.

I call bullshit on the whole societal decay thing again, especially the argument that because we aren’t affected, we can’t see it happening.

I still didn’t see anyone pick a decade so we can see it’s gone downhill since then. Nobody will, because I will pick apart that decade and bring up all of it’s flaws. We all know that society was worse last year, last decade, last century and so on, picking a date in time is walking into a buzz saw. Sure there are bits and pieces that might be better, but overall, society moves forward and gets better, if you look at the big picture and the individual experience.

Pick a group or a person, throw some labels on them and then plot their experience on a timeline, you tell me when in time their life was better if it is not today. And I’m also convinced that next year and the year after that, it will be even better. Here, I’ll do the first few for you:

Black people-Let’s see the 1700’s and 1800’s sucked pretty hard with that whole slavery thing. The early 1900’s was no picnic but did get better. Segregation went away over time, education began catching up, professional jobs (doctors,lawyers, etc.) starting showing up. They allowed them to play in the professional sports leagues about 60 years ago, they could marry out of their race eventually. Now look at today, the president is black, half of the most powerful and popular media figures are black, most people under 30 cannot even fathom what things were like in the 50’s and earlier. Is it perfect? No. Is it better every day? Yes.

American Indians-similar to the above situation but with some variations, the 1800’s were pretty crappy, with that whole genocide thing. Today many of them have some money, power and influence. Education is starting to happen and they are once again walking around proud of who they are. Has money been the doenfall of some, are some stll living in poverty? Yes. Was being rounded up, having their food supply destroyed and being slaughtered worse? Yes.

Gays-This one is pretty easy, I doubt anyone would rather be gay and live during another decade.

I’ll stop there, but I could detail every racial group, women of those groups and white women. Poor people never really need to worry about dying of starvation anymore.

Do you really think that a black woman in 2011 who takes zoloft for depression would be happier as a slave in 1820 working in a field, or sitting int the back of a bus in 1945. You can exchange the black woman for a gay teenager or whatever you want. Just because people seek treatment for mild depression does not mean we are going to hell in a hand basket. They are merely taking care of minor issues that in previous decades during history they did not have the time or the means to seek treatment. When everything else is so shitty, you don’t notice the little things. If you had four bullet wounds to your chest, you wouldn’t care about needing some stitches for a cut on your arm. Just because more people are getting stitches now doesnt mean they are getting hurt more, it means that they don’t have bullet wounds and they can deal with the minor issues.

It’s still not perfect, but more people today feel that they matter, that they are important, that they are beautiful and they have something to offer than at any other time in history. Chasing ones dreams is no longer something reserved for the elite, reaching your goals is more possible than ever before, for everyone. There is still failure and disapointment, but there less glass cielings, less judgement and less societal pressure to be something you are not and I know that will continue. I’m not being optimistic, I’m being realistic, the evidence is everywhere if you just look.

One group has been getting screwed, smokers. I’m one of those drinker smokers who does it maybe once a month. In social setting or casinos when I’m drinking, I’m smoking cigars or cigarettes. 99% of the time I’m in the non smoking group and 1% I’m with the smokers, it’s like being black for a day and seeing what their experience is like. The last two times this happened I almost beat someone and I got pretty mean both times. A smoking card table in the smoking section of a casino or the smoking patio at a bar are about the only places left you can drink and smoke in public, the other 99.9% of the planet is yours so if you choose to go to that particular spot, I do not give a s^&* if it bothers you. I don’t follow you into the stall in the restroom, put my head next to the bowl while are sitting and ask you if you could please not do anything that smells bad. I can see the smokers starting riots, non smokers are so freaking annoying.

[temeculaguy]

Speaking of gold.

“On Aug. 2, holding by large gold speculators—namely hedge funds—hit “readings that are the highest ever in our records,” stated a Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysis of CFTC data.”

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44110093

Investing is a lot like going to parties to meet women. Sometimes it’s good to be one of the first ones to the party so you can get a good seat, but the risk is that you have to do a lot more guessing at how many women will show up. Sometimes going to the party just as it’s getting going is better, you can check out the talent that it is line to get an idea of what it will be like. Sometimes showing up later, when the party is in full swing is a safer bet, you can clearly see what the talent and the ratio will be, but some of the good ones are already taken by then, so there’s less upside.

But the one party you do not want to go to is the party that has been going on for hours and the hedge fund guys are already there. Because those guys have already knocked up or given an STD to every woman at the party. They will be out the door and driving away before you get your first drink. You’ll likely have to pay them for thier parking spot and pay them again for their seat (both of which they didn’t pay for). They will also likely take a dump into a paper bag because there was a line at the bathroom and tell you to hold it for them because they will be right back. The best strategy is to just keep driving if you see their cars in the driveway when you arrive because you know how this party ends, crying, dna tests or antibiotics, you can set your watch to it.

So there you are, holding a poop in a bag, getting yelled at by a drunk and infected woman who thinks you were the one who knocked her up. Maybe you go to better parties than I do, but I’m not doing that again.

[temeculaguy]

Speaking of gold.

“On Aug. 2, holding by large gold speculators—namely hedge funds—hit “readings that are the highest ever in our records,” stated a Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysis of CFTC data.”

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44110093

Investing is a lot like going to parties to meet women. Sometimes it’s good to be one of the first ones to the party so you can get a good seat, but the risk is that you have to do a lot more guessing at how many women will show up. Sometimes going to the party just as it’s getting going is better, you can check out the talent that it is line to get an idea of what it will be like. Sometimes showing up later, when the party is in full swing is a safer bet, you can clearly see what the talent and the ratio will be, but some of the good ones are already taken by then, so there’s less upside.

But the one party you do not want to go to is the party that has been going on for hours and the hedge fund guys are already there. Because those guys have already knocked up or given an STD to every woman at the party. They will be out the door and driving away before you get your first drink. You’ll likely have to pay them for thier parking spot and pay them again for their seat (both of which they didn’t pay for). They will also likely take a dump into a paper bag because there was a line at the bathroom and tell you to hold it for them because they will be right back. The best strategy is to just keep driving if you see their cars in the driveway when you arrive because you know how this party ends, crying, dna tests or antibiotics, you can set your watch to it.

So there you are, holding a poop in a bag, getting yelled at by a drunk and infected woman who thinks you were the one who knocked her up. Maybe you go to better parties than I do, but I’m not doing that again.

[temeculaguy]

Speaking of gold.

“On Aug. 2, holding by large gold speculators—namely hedge funds—hit “readings that are the highest ever in our records,” stated a Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysis of CFTC data.”

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44110093

Investing is a lot like going to parties to meet women. Sometimes it’s good to be one of the first ones to the party so you can get a good seat, but the risk is that you have to do a lot more guessing at how many women will show up. Sometimes going to the party just as it’s getting going is better, you can check out the talent that it is line to get an idea of what it will be like. Sometimes showing up later, when the party is in full swing is a safer bet, you can clearly see what the talent and the ratio will be, but some of the good ones are already taken by then, so there’s less upside.

But the one party you do not want to go to is the party that has been going on for hours and the hedge fund guys are already there. Because those guys have already knocked up or given an STD to every woman at the party. They will be out the door and driving away before you get your first drink. You’ll likely have to pay them for thier parking spot and pay them again for their seat (both of which they didn’t pay for). They will also likely take a dump into a paper bag because there was a line at the bathroom and tell you to hold it for them because they will be right back. The best strategy is to just keep driving if you see their cars in the driveway when you arrive because you know how this party ends, crying, dna tests or antibiotics, you can set your watch to it.

So there you are, holding a poop in a bag, getting yelled at by a drunk and infected woman who thinks you were the one who knocked her up. Maybe you go to better parties than I do, but I’m not doing that again.

[temeculaguy]

Speaking of gold.

“On Aug. 2, holding by large gold speculators—namely hedge funds—hit “readings that are the highest ever in our records,” stated a Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysis of CFTC data.”

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44110093

Investing is a lot like going to parties to meet women. Sometimes it’s good to be one of the first ones to the party so you can get a good seat, but the risk is that you have to do a lot more guessing at how many women will show up. Sometimes going to the party just as it’s getting going is better, you can check out the talent that it is line to get an idea of what it will be like. Sometimes showing up later, when the party is in full swing is a safer bet, you can clearly see what the talent and the ratio will be, but some of the good ones are already taken by then, so there’s less upside.

But the one party you do not want to go to is the party that has been going on for hours and the hedge fund guys are already there. Because those guys have already knocked up or given an STD to every woman at the party. They will be out the door and driving away before you get your first drink. You’ll likely have to pay them for thier parking spot and pay them again for their seat (both of which they didn’t pay for). They will also likely take a dump into a paper bag because there was a line at the bathroom and tell you to hold it for them because they will be right back. The best strategy is to just keep driving if you see their cars in the driveway when you arrive because you know how this party ends, crying, dna tests or antibiotics, you can set your watch to it.

So there you are, holding a poop in a bag, getting yelled at by a drunk and infected woman who thinks you were the one who knocked her up. Maybe you go to better parties than I do, but I’m not doing that again.

[temeculaguy]

Speaking of gold.

“On Aug. 2, holding by large gold speculators—namely hedge funds—hit “readings that are the highest ever in our records,” stated a Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysis of CFTC data.”

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44110093

Investing is a lot like going to parties to meet women. Sometimes it’s good to be one of the first ones to the party so you can get a good seat, but the risk is that you have to do a lot more guessing at how many women will show up. Sometimes going to the party just as it’s getting going is better, you can check out the talent that it is line to get an idea of what it will be like. Sometimes showing up later, when the party is in full swing is a safer bet, you can clearly see what the talent and the ratio will be, but some of the good ones are already taken by then, so there’s less upside.

But the one party you do not want to go to is the party that has been going on for hours and the hedge fund guys are already there. Because those guys have already knocked up or given an STD to every woman at the party. They will be out the door and driving away before you get your first drink. You’ll likely have to pay them for thier parking spot and pay them again for their seat (both of which they didn’t pay for). They will also likely take a dump into a paper bag because there was a line at the bathroom and tell you to hold it for them because they will be right back. The best strategy is to just keep driving if you see their cars in the driveway when you arrive because you know how this party ends, crying, dna tests or antibiotics, you can set your watch to it.

So there you are, holding a poop in a bag, getting yelled at by a drunk and infected woman who thinks you were the one who knocked her up. Maybe you go to better parties than I do, but I’m not doing that again.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=pri_dk]Lots of fairly high-priced restaurants in Temecula/Murietta are packed on weekends. It’s supposed to be one of the epicentres of the housing crisis, but you’d never know the economy took a hit if you only observed the traffic in these restaurants.

It bugs my wife because I always ponder it every time we eat out. My only theory is that it is strategic defaulters with extra cash flow because they are not paying their mortgages. But I’ve been observing this for years, and I’m still perplexed.[/quote]

pri dk, Temecula/Murietta is a lower-cost housing area. There are MANY homeowners there who DID NOT purchase their properties at high prices (they purchased pre-bubble). In addition, there are many lower-cost rentals there and even a few mobile home parks.

Not everyone has high living expenses or high property taxes. MANY people (including most Mexicans living in MX) have FAR cheaper living expenses than a “typical Pigg.” Therefore, they have more discretionary income for restaurants and entertainment.

LOTS of people eat out almost daily in lower cost-of-living regions of the US. MANY eat in the SAME 1-3 restaurants night after night.[/quote]

Actually the low cost rental part is a common misconception. A condo that you can buy for 170k will cost you 1500 and up to rent. A 1 br apartment is at or over 1k (and can be bought for 80k). When I was renting here I marveled at how high the rents were in comparison. Had I not been strategically renting and waiting to buy, I would have moved, paid maybe 20% more in rent for a propery worth at least double. Now I’m speaking of Temecula and not areas 15 miles away that many lump in. Another exmple is my model match on my street just rented for $2600, the time between tenants was about two days. The owner bought that place for about 340K, so at most levels (small, medium and large) renting seems to be equal to costlier than buying.

But to answer the riddle of why there doesn’t seem to be a slowdown locally, BG is correct on many counts, not everyone is bubble buyer and the area has churned out most of those folks years ago. This area was hit a lot earlier than most, it’s been four years since the brown lawns first started showing up, it’s August, I don’t see any brown lawns now and my tract is dead center meltdown, being built in 2006, but there even here, the half price buyers outnumber the bubble 2-1.

I say just look at the census data, household incomes on par with Carlsbad (70k+) and mortgages at less than half of almost any area in SD county. Maybe 10% are unemployed, but the other 90% have more disposable income. Just ask the piggs that live up here, many of them probably have household incomes of over 100k and total housing debt somewhere in the 200’s, maybe 300k. Life is a whole lot easier when the lion share of your pay doesn’t go to housing.

And it’s not just weekends, ask sdr, he and his crew came up a few weeks ago on a Sunday night. We went to a concert in the wine country, sold out for seats, we had to pay $60 each to stand in the back. My car was embarrassed to be parked alongside the hundreds of nice cars in the lot. Then we went to dinner, on a Sunday night, late, like 830 or 9, packed as well, and it was not an inexpensive place or a family place.

Some businesses have gone under and maybe more people are using their entertainment dollars locally instead of travelling this summer, but the theory that it is because people aren’t paying their mortgages has lost it’s legs.

An article just came out saying that it could be the local travel, that the 15 hotels are reporting a 10% increase in occupancy.

http://www.pe.com/rss/business/stories/PE_Biz_D_temechotels10.34ef6dc.html

TEMECULA VALLEY Southern California Wine Country: August 8, 2011- “July saw the eleventh consecutive month of positive, local hotel industry growth,” reports Kimberly Adams, Temecula Valley Convention & Visitors Bureau president and CEO. “For the month of July, room occupancy was up 15.8% and revenues were up 19.5% versus July last year. Year-to-date through June 30, room occupancy is up 10% and revenues are up 10.4%. By comparison, California – which is the Number 1 travel destination and tourism state in the U.S. – is up 5%.”

So maybe it’s just the tourists?

[temeculaguy]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=pri_dk]Lots of fairly high-priced restaurants in Temecula/Murietta are packed on weekends. It’s supposed to be one of the epicentres of the housing crisis, but you’d never know the economy took a hit if you only observed the traffic in these restaurants.

It bugs my wife because I always ponder it every time we eat out. My only theory is that it is strategic defaulters with extra cash flow because they are not paying their mortgages. But I’ve been observing this for years, and I’m still perplexed.[/quote]

pri dk, Temecula/Murietta is a lower-cost housing area. There are MANY homeowners there who DID NOT purchase their properties at high prices (they purchased pre-bubble). In addition, there are many lower-cost rentals there and even a few mobile home parks.

Not everyone has high living expenses or high property taxes. MANY people (including most Mexicans living in MX) have FAR cheaper living expenses than a “typical Pigg.” Therefore, they have more discretionary income for restaurants and entertainment.

LOTS of people eat out almost daily in lower cost-of-living regions of the US. MANY eat in the SAME 1-3 restaurants night after night.[/quote]

Actually the low cost rental part is a common misconception. A condo that you can buy for 170k will cost you 1500 and up to rent. A 1 br apartment is at or over 1k (and can be bought for 80k). When I was renting here I marveled at how high the rents were in comparison. Had I not been strategically renting and waiting to buy, I would have moved, paid maybe 20% more in rent for a propery worth at least double. Now I’m speaking of Temecula and not areas 15 miles away that many lump in. Another exmple is my model match on my street just rented for $2600, the time between tenants was about two days. The owner bought that place for about 340K, so at most levels (small, medium and large) renting seems to be equal to costlier than buying.

But to answer the riddle of why there doesn’t seem to be a slowdown locally, BG is correct on many counts, not everyone is bubble buyer and the area has churned out most of those folks years ago. This area was hit a lot earlier than most, it’s been four years since the brown lawns first started showing up, it’s August, I don’t see any brown lawns now and my tract is dead center meltdown, being built in 2006, but there even here, the half price buyers outnumber the bubble 2-1.

I say just look at the census data, household incomes on par with Carlsbad (70k+) and mortgages at less than half of almost any area in SD county. Maybe 10% are unemployed, but the other 90% have more disposable income. Just ask the piggs that live up here, many of them probably have household incomes of over 100k and total housing debt somewhere in the 200’s, maybe 300k. Life is a whole lot easier when the lion share of your pay doesn’t go to housing.

And it’s not just weekends, ask sdr, he and his crew came up a few weeks ago on a Sunday night. We went to a concert in the wine country, sold out for seats, we had to pay $60 each to stand in the back. My car was embarrassed to be parked alongside the hundreds of nice cars in the lot. Then we went to dinner, on a Sunday night, late, like 830 or 9, packed as well, and it was not an inexpensive place or a family place.

Some businesses have gone under and maybe more people are using their entertainment dollars locally instead of travelling this summer, but the theory that it is because people aren’t paying their mortgages has lost it’s legs.

An article just came out saying that it could be the local travel, that the 15 hotels are reporting a 10% increase in occupancy.

http://www.pe.com/rss/business/stories/PE_Biz_D_temechotels10.34ef6dc.html

TEMECULA VALLEY Southern California Wine Country: August 8, 2011- “July saw the eleventh consecutive month of positive, local hotel industry growth,” reports Kimberly Adams, Temecula Valley Convention & Visitors Bureau president and CEO. “For the month of July, room occupancy was up 15.8% and revenues were up 19.5% versus July last year. Year-to-date through June 30, room occupancy is up 10% and revenues are up 10.4%. By comparison, California – which is the Number 1 travel destination and tourism state in the U.S. – is up 5%.”

So maybe it’s just the tourists?

[temeculaguy]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=pri_dk]Lots of fairly high-priced restaurants in Temecula/Murietta are packed on weekends. It’s supposed to be one of the epicentres of the housing crisis, but you’d never know the economy took a hit if you only observed the traffic in these restaurants.

It bugs my wife because I always ponder it every time we eat out. My only theory is that it is strategic defaulters with extra cash flow because they are not paying their mortgages. But I’ve been observing this for years, and I’m still perplexed.[/quote]

pri dk, Temecula/Murietta is a lower-cost housing area. There are MANY homeowners there who DID NOT purchase their properties at high prices (they purchased pre-bubble). In addition, there are many lower-cost rentals there and even a few mobile home parks.

Not everyone has high living expenses or high property taxes. MANY people (including most Mexicans living in MX) have FAR cheaper living expenses than a “typical Pigg.” Therefore, they have more discretionary income for restaurants and entertainment.

LOTS of people eat out almost daily in lower cost-of-living regions of the US. MANY eat in the SAME 1-3 restaurants night after night.[/quote]

Actually the low cost rental part is a common misconception. A condo that you can buy for 170k will cost you 1500 and up to rent. A 1 br apartment is at or over 1k (and can be bought for 80k). When I was renting here I marveled at how high the rents were in comparison. Had I not been strategically renting and waiting to buy, I would have moved, paid maybe 20% more in rent for a propery worth at least double. Now I’m speaking of Temecula and not areas 15 miles away that many lump in. Another exmple is my model match on my street just rented for $2600, the time between tenants was about two days. The owner bought that place for about 340K, so at most levels (small, medium and large) renting seems to be equal to costlier than buying.

But to answer the riddle of why there doesn’t seem to be a slowdown locally, BG is correct on many counts, not everyone is bubble buyer and the area has churned out most of those folks years ago. This area was hit a lot earlier than most, it’s been four years since the brown lawns first started showing up, it’s August, I don’t see any brown lawns now and my tract is dead center meltdown, being built in 2006, but there even here, the half price buyers outnumber the bubble 2-1.

I say just look at the census data, household incomes on par with Carlsbad (70k+) and mortgages at less than half of almost any area in SD county. Maybe 10% are unemployed, but the other 90% have more disposable income. Just ask the piggs that live up here, many of them probably have household incomes of over 100k and total housing debt somewhere in the 200’s, maybe 300k. Life is a whole lot easier when the lion share of your pay doesn’t go to housing.

And it’s not just weekends, ask sdr, he and his crew came up a few weeks ago on a Sunday night. We went to a concert in the wine country, sold out for seats, we had to pay $60 each to stand in the back. My car was embarrassed to be parked alongside the hundreds of nice cars in the lot. Then we went to dinner, on a Sunday night, late, like 830 or 9, packed as well, and it was not an inexpensive place or a family place.

Some businesses have gone under and maybe more people are using their entertainment dollars locally instead of travelling this summer, but the theory that it is because people aren’t paying their mortgages has lost it’s legs.

An article just came out saying that it could be the local travel, that the 15 hotels are reporting a 10% increase in occupancy.

http://www.pe.com/rss/business/stories/PE_Biz_D_temechotels10.34ef6dc.html

TEMECULA VALLEY Southern California Wine Country: August 8, 2011- “July saw the eleventh consecutive month of positive, local hotel industry growth,” reports Kimberly Adams, Temecula Valley Convention & Visitors Bureau president and CEO. “For the month of July, room occupancy was up 15.8% and revenues were up 19.5% versus July last year. Year-to-date through June 30, room occupancy is up 10% and revenues are up 10.4%. By comparison, California – which is the Number 1 travel destination and tourism state in the U.S. – is up 5%.”

So maybe it’s just the tourists?

[temeculaguy]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=pri_dk]Lots of fairly high-priced restaurants in Temecula/Murietta are packed on weekends. It’s supposed to be one of the epicentres of the housing crisis, but you’d never know the economy took a hit if you only observed the traffic in these restaurants.

It bugs my wife because I always ponder it every time we eat out. My only theory is that it is strategic defaulters with extra cash flow because they are not paying their mortgages. But I’ve been observing this for years, and I’m still perplexed.[/quote]

pri dk, Temecula/Murietta is a lower-cost housing area. There are MANY homeowners there who DID NOT purchase their properties at high prices (they purchased pre-bubble). In addition, there are many lower-cost rentals there and even a few mobile home parks.

Not everyone has high living expenses or high property taxes. MANY people (including most Mexicans living in MX) have FAR cheaper living expenses than a “typical Pigg.” Therefore, they have more discretionary income for restaurants and entertainment.

LOTS of people eat out almost daily in lower cost-of-living regions of the US. MANY eat in the SAME 1-3 restaurants night after night.[/quote]

Actually the low cost rental part is a common misconception. A condo that you can buy for 170k will cost you 1500 and up to rent. A 1 br apartment is at or over 1k (and can be bought for 80k). When I was renting here I marveled at how high the rents were in comparison. Had I not been strategically renting and waiting to buy, I would have moved, paid maybe 20% more in rent for a propery worth at least double. Now I’m speaking of Temecula and not areas 15 miles away that many lump in. Another exmple is my model match on my street just rented for $2600, the time between tenants was about two days. The owner bought that place for about 340K, so at most levels (small, medium and large) renting seems to be equal to costlier than buying.

But to answer the riddle of why there doesn’t seem to be a slowdown locally, BG is correct on many counts, not everyone is bubble buyer and the area has churned out most of those folks years ago. This area was hit a lot earlier than most, it’s been four years since the brown lawns first started showing up, it’s August, I don’t see any brown lawns now and my tract is dead center meltdown, being built in 2006, but there even here, the half price buyers outnumber the bubble 2-1.

I say just look at the census data, household incomes on par with Carlsbad (70k+) and mortgages at less than half of almost any area in SD county. Maybe 10% are unemployed, but the other 90% have more disposable income. Just ask the piggs that live up here, many of them probably have household incomes of over 100k and total housing debt somewhere in the 200’s, maybe 300k. Life is a whole lot easier when the lion share of your pay doesn’t go to housing.

And it’s not just weekends, ask sdr, he and his crew came up a few weeks ago on a Sunday night. We went to a concert in the wine country, sold out for seats, we had to pay $60 each to stand in the back. My car was embarrassed to be parked alongside the hundreds of nice cars in the lot. Then we went to dinner, on a Sunday night, late, like 830 or 9, packed as well, and it was not an inexpensive place or a family place.

Some businesses have gone under and maybe more people are using their entertainment dollars locally instead of travelling this summer, but the theory that it is because people aren’t paying their mortgages has lost it’s legs.

An article just came out saying that it could be the local travel, that the 15 hotels are reporting a 10% increase in occupancy.

http://www.pe.com/rss/business/stories/PE_Biz_D_temechotels10.34ef6dc.html

TEMECULA VALLEY Southern California Wine Country: August 8, 2011- “July saw the eleventh consecutive month of positive, local hotel industry growth,” reports Kimberly Adams, Temecula Valley Convention & Visitors Bureau president and CEO. “For the month of July, room occupancy was up 15.8% and revenues were up 19.5% versus July last year. Year-to-date through June 30, room occupancy is up 10% and revenues are up 10.4%. By comparison, California – which is the Number 1 travel destination and tourism state in the U.S. – is up 5%.”

So maybe it’s just the tourists?

[temeculaguy]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=pri_dk]Lots of fairly high-priced restaurants in Temecula/Murietta are packed on weekends. It’s supposed to be one of the epicentres of the housing crisis, but you’d never know the economy took a hit if you only observed the traffic in these restaurants.

It bugs my wife because I always ponder it every time we eat out. My only theory is that it is strategic defaulters with extra cash flow because they are not paying their mortgages. But I’ve been observing this for years, and I’m still perplexed.[/quote]

pri dk, Temecula/Murietta is a lower-cost housing area. There are MANY homeowners there who DID NOT purchase their properties at high prices (they purchased pre-bubble). In addition, there are many lower-cost rentals there and even a few mobile home parks.

Not everyone has high living expenses or high property taxes. MANY people (including most Mexicans living in MX) have FAR cheaper living expenses than a “typical Pigg.” Therefore, they have more discretionary income for restaurants and entertainment.

LOTS of people eat out almost daily in lower cost-of-living regions of the US. MANY eat in the SAME 1-3 restaurants night after night.[/quote]

Actually the low cost rental part is a common misconception. A condo that you can buy for 170k will cost you 1500 and up to rent. A 1 br apartment is at or over 1k (and can be bought for 80k). When I was renting here I marveled at how high the rents were in comparison. Had I not been strategically renting and waiting to buy, I would have moved, paid maybe 20% more in rent for a propery worth at least double. Now I’m speaking of Temecula and not areas 15 miles away that many lump in. Another exmple is my model match on my street just rented for $2600, the time between tenants was about two days. The owner bought that place for about 340K, so at most levels (small, medium and large) renting seems to be equal to costlier than buying.

But to answer the riddle of why there doesn’t seem to be a slowdown locally, BG is correct on many counts, not everyone is bubble buyer and the area has churned out most of those folks years ago. This area was hit a lot earlier than most, it’s been four years since the brown lawns first started showing up, it’s August, I don’t see any brown lawns now and my tract is dead center meltdown, being built in 2006, but there even here, the half price buyers outnumber the bubble 2-1.

I say just look at the census data, household incomes on par with Carlsbad (70k+) and mortgages at less than half of almost any area in SD county. Maybe 10% are unemployed, but the other 90% have more disposable income. Just ask the piggs that live up here, many of them probably have household incomes of over 100k and total housing debt somewhere in the 200’s, maybe 300k. Life is a whole lot easier when the lion share of your pay doesn’t go to housing.

And it’s not just weekends, ask sdr, he and his crew came up a few weeks ago on a Sunday night. We went to a concert in the wine country, sold out for seats, we had to pay $60 each to stand in the back. My car was embarrassed to be parked alongside the hundreds of nice cars in the lot. Then we went to dinner, on a Sunday night, late, like 830 or 9, packed as well, and it was not an inexpensive place or a family place.

Some businesses have gone under and maybe more people are using their entertainment dollars locally instead of travelling this summer, but the theory that it is because people aren’t paying their mortgages has lost it’s legs.

An article just came out saying that it could be the local travel, that the 15 hotels are reporting a 10% increase in occupancy.

http://www.pe.com/rss/business/stories/PE_Biz_D_temechotels10.34ef6dc.html

TEMECULA VALLEY Southern California Wine Country: August 8, 2011- “July saw the eleventh consecutive month of positive, local hotel industry growth,” reports Kimberly Adams, Temecula Valley Convention & Visitors Bureau president and CEO. “For the month of July, room occupancy was up 15.8% and revenues were up 19.5% versus July last year. Year-to-date through June 30, room occupancy is up 10% and revenues are up 10.4%. By comparison, California – which is the Number 1 travel destination and tourism state in the U.S. – is up 5%.”

So maybe it’s just the tourists?

[temeculaguy]

Avoid actually taking stock advice from this crowd, this is a one trick pony, too many canned food and ammo types. I speak from experience, back when the Dow hit the 6000 range I proposed a similar thread and listed six specific stocks that I was contemplating. The advice was very negative and like an idiot I chose to follow it. I could have make 10x my money within a year, and not quite doubled it in gold, which is all anyone talked about. Be rational, piggington was on the cutting edge 5 years ago with regards to the real estate bubble, but it’s never been a stock picker.

One example was when Ford hit $1 and gold was about $1,000 almost every poster said gold was the smart play and ford was a reckless play (I listened, shame on me). Today, in this mess, ford is over $10, hasn’t gone below $9 all year, and it’s high was almost $19. To give you some perspective, gold would have had to peak and $19,000 to beat it and would need to be at $10,000 today to come close.

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