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temeculaguy
ParticipantCog, I think seasonally it is a horrible month to be buying, anywhere, throw in the interest rates and I guess we are where we are. The Fall/Winter is much better and may represent your best chance as far as competition goes. Inventory is lower than I’ve ever seen it right now. If you run a redfin of zip code 92592 and click the box to exclude the pendings and the shorts, there are four houses in redhawk for sale and 2 in morgan. On closer inspection, some were shorts but not designated on the listing except for in the narrative. under 40 south of temecula parkway total and 40 homes sold between may 1st and may 8th, so a one week supply is not a good time to sneak in and steal one.
It is actually a hotter market than it seems because of the way they list shorts, they keep them active in the mls with the low price to get bids and they just sit there active until escrow closes, sometimes many months later. When you call to inquire, there are more than a dozen offers well over that price, so it misleads you a little about what’s out there, you see for sale signs but you can’t buy them.
But here’s the rub, it should change a little later this year, in past markets, both buyers and sellers did a lot of business this time a year, especially for family sized homes. They all wanted to move in summer. But the children of the banks aren’t moving schools, so they aren’t tied to the spring like the buyers are. This October/November, there will be fewer buyers just because nobody wants to move in December, there also should be a push in inventory because of the foreclosure mratoriums expiration. The interest rate may tick up a tad, sending more to the sidelines temporarily, that’s the time to make offers.
It’s no secret that I’m optimistic about the area and this year, but what is happening now shouldn’t be trusted too much, prices should remain flat but I met my new neighbor yesterday who closed escrow last week, he paid 10% more than I did and for a smaller house (albeit his is in far better condition, almost turnkey, so it’s probably a tie), even I know that appreciation shouldn’t be happening, it’s the spring bounce, probably best to wait it out, not just this year, but every year, avoid spring. But he did pay about 50% off peak and was the winning bid, some of these bidding wars are only over a couple grand and start pretty low, so it’s not like there is a price increase frenzy.
I have another theory about spring that I’ve mentioned over the years. Most buyers are couples, couples often contain at least one female, the female of most mammals have a spring mating/nesting instinct. See where I’m going with this, we are still animals with some animal instincts, spring is a time to be outside, for change, for finding a new nest, to explore, while winter is a time to hunker down in the cave and stay put.
It helps to try and understand the behavior of others and to understand your own behavior, that way you can go against the grain a little. I’d give it till September at the least to see if it slows down. It will be a few years before prices go up, and even when they do it should be slow, so you have time to wait out the little upticks.
ParticipantCog, I think seasonally it is a horrible month to be buying, anywhere, throw in the interest rates and I guess we are where we are. The Fall/Winter is much better and may represent your best chance as far as competition goes. Inventory is lower than I’ve ever seen it right now. If you run a redfin of zip code 92592 and click the box to exclude the pendings and the shorts, there are four houses in redhawk for sale and 2 in morgan. On closer inspection, some were shorts but not designated on the listing except for in the narrative. under 40 south of temecula parkway total and 40 homes sold between may 1st and may 8th, so a one week supply is not a good time to sneak in and steal one.
It is actually a hotter market than it seems because of the way they list shorts, they keep them active in the mls with the low price to get bids and they just sit there active until escrow closes, sometimes many months later. When you call to inquire, there are more than a dozen offers well over that price, so it misleads you a little about what’s out there, you see for sale signs but you can’t buy them.
But here’s the rub, it should change a little later this year, in past markets, both buyers and sellers did a lot of business this time a year, especially for family sized homes. They all wanted to move in summer. But the children of the banks aren’t moving schools, so they aren’t tied to the spring like the buyers are. This October/November, there will be fewer buyers just because nobody wants to move in December, there also should be a push in inventory because of the foreclosure mratoriums expiration. The interest rate may tick up a tad, sending more to the sidelines temporarily, that’s the time to make offers.
It’s no secret that I’m optimistic about the area and this year, but what is happening now shouldn’t be trusted too much, prices should remain flat but I met my new neighbor yesterday who closed escrow last week, he paid 10% more than I did and for a smaller house (albeit his is in far better condition, almost turnkey, so it’s probably a tie), even I know that appreciation shouldn’t be happening, it’s the spring bounce, probably best to wait it out, not just this year, but every year, avoid spring. But he did pay about 50% off peak and was the winning bid, some of these bidding wars are only over a couple grand and start pretty low, so it’s not like there is a price increase frenzy.
I have another theory about spring that I’ve mentioned over the years. Most buyers are couples, couples often contain at least one female, the female of most mammals have a spring mating/nesting instinct. See where I’m going with this, we are still animals with some animal instincts, spring is a time to be outside, for change, for finding a new nest, to explore, while winter is a time to hunker down in the cave and stay put.
It helps to try and understand the behavior of others and to understand your own behavior, that way you can go against the grain a little. I’d give it till September at the least to see if it slows down. It will be a few years before prices go up, and even when they do it should be slow, so you have time to wait out the little upticks.
ParticipantCog, I think seasonally it is a horrible month to be buying, anywhere, throw in the interest rates and I guess we are where we are. The Fall/Winter is much better and may represent your best chance as far as competition goes. Inventory is lower than I’ve ever seen it right now. If you run a redfin of zip code 92592 and click the box to exclude the pendings and the shorts, there are four houses in redhawk for sale and 2 in morgan. On closer inspection, some were shorts but not designated on the listing except for in the narrative. under 40 south of temecula parkway total and 40 homes sold between may 1st and may 8th, so a one week supply is not a good time to sneak in and steal one.
It is actually a hotter market than it seems because of the way they list shorts, they keep them active in the mls with the low price to get bids and they just sit there active until escrow closes, sometimes many months later. When you call to inquire, there are more than a dozen offers well over that price, so it misleads you a little about what’s out there, you see for sale signs but you can’t buy them.
But here’s the rub, it should change a little later this year, in past markets, both buyers and sellers did a lot of business this time a year, especially for family sized homes. They all wanted to move in summer. But the children of the banks aren’t moving schools, so they aren’t tied to the spring like the buyers are. This October/November, there will be fewer buyers just because nobody wants to move in December, there also should be a push in inventory because of the foreclosure mratoriums expiration. The interest rate may tick up a tad, sending more to the sidelines temporarily, that’s the time to make offers.
It’s no secret that I’m optimistic about the area and this year, but what is happening now shouldn’t be trusted too much, prices should remain flat but I met my new neighbor yesterday who closed escrow last week, he paid 10% more than I did and for a smaller house (albeit his is in far better condition, almost turnkey, so it’s probably a tie), even I know that appreciation shouldn’t be happening, it’s the spring bounce, probably best to wait it out, not just this year, but every year, avoid spring. But he did pay about 50% off peak and was the winning bid, some of these bidding wars are only over a couple grand and start pretty low, so it’s not like there is a price increase frenzy.
I have another theory about spring that I’ve mentioned over the years. Most buyers are couples, couples often contain at least one female, the female of most mammals have a spring mating/nesting instinct. See where I’m going with this, we are still animals with some animal instincts, spring is a time to be outside, for change, for finding a new nest, to explore, while winter is a time to hunker down in the cave and stay put.
It helps to try and understand the behavior of others and to understand your own behavior, that way you can go against the grain a little. I’d give it till September at the least to see if it slows down. It will be a few years before prices go up, and even when they do it should be slow, so you have time to wait out the little upticks.
ParticipantSd, I think you are right in general terms, but there is always that one house with the crappiest lot in the worst shape that can pop lower than the norm. I’ll stick by my earlier observation, this is the top 10% of the stock, even in the midst of a meltdown it has a greater value, it’s not a median area or a median home, so to think it will hit the median price is foolish.
But you are in the trenches, not I, if one listed tomorrow in the 6’s, you know there would be thirty offers by sundown, inventory is so bad the shadow inventory isn’t even going to make it whole.
It’s this kind of stuff that makes me mildly bullish, we ran our formulas two years ago ingoring the msm and popular sentiment, why should we abandon that math now just because the msm and popular sentiment has changed.ParticipantSd, I think you are right in general terms, but there is always that one house with the crappiest lot in the worst shape that can pop lower than the norm. I’ll stick by my earlier observation, this is the top 10% of the stock, even in the midst of a meltdown it has a greater value, it’s not a median area or a median home, so to think it will hit the median price is foolish.
But you are in the trenches, not I, if one listed tomorrow in the 6’s, you know there would be thirty offers by sundown, inventory is so bad the shadow inventory isn’t even going to make it whole.
It’s this kind of stuff that makes me mildly bullish, we ran our formulas two years ago ingoring the msm and popular sentiment, why should we abandon that math now just because the msm and popular sentiment has changed.ParticipantSd, I think you are right in general terms, but there is always that one house with the crappiest lot in the worst shape that can pop lower than the norm. I’ll stick by my earlier observation, this is the top 10% of the stock, even in the midst of a meltdown it has a greater value, it’s not a median area or a median home, so to think it will hit the median price is foolish.
But you are in the trenches, not I, if one listed tomorrow in the 6’s, you know there would be thirty offers by sundown, inventory is so bad the shadow inventory isn’t even going to make it whole.
It’s this kind of stuff that makes me mildly bullish, we ran our formulas two years ago ingoring the msm and popular sentiment, why should we abandon that math now just because the msm and popular sentiment has changed.ParticipantSd, I think you are right in general terms, but there is always that one house with the crappiest lot in the worst shape that can pop lower than the norm. I’ll stick by my earlier observation, this is the top 10% of the stock, even in the midst of a meltdown it has a greater value, it’s not a median area or a median home, so to think it will hit the median price is foolish.
But you are in the trenches, not I, if one listed tomorrow in the 6’s, you know there would be thirty offers by sundown, inventory is so bad the shadow inventory isn’t even going to make it whole.
It’s this kind of stuff that makes me mildly bullish, we ran our formulas two years ago ingoring the msm and popular sentiment, why should we abandon that math now just because the msm and popular sentiment has changed.ParticipantSd, I think you are right in general terms, but there is always that one house with the crappiest lot in the worst shape that can pop lower than the norm. I’ll stick by my earlier observation, this is the top 10% of the stock, even in the midst of a meltdown it has a greater value, it’s not a median area or a median home, so to think it will hit the median price is foolish.
But you are in the trenches, not I, if one listed tomorrow in the 6’s, you know there would be thirty offers by sundown, inventory is so bad the shadow inventory isn’t even going to make it whole.
It’s this kind of stuff that makes me mildly bullish, we ran our formulas two years ago ingoring the msm and popular sentiment, why should we abandon that math now just because the msm and popular sentiment has changed.ParticipantI do remember it, I was actually thinking about it when I was trying to figure out what they would do with the school and writing that post, and that place was just an outpatient place. Now that I think of it, that would have made a terrible location for a strip club, but how about in the industrial park, seriously it’s like 50 miles to the nearest one, you’d think elsinore would have one by now, I’m all for keeping the residential areas residential but sometimes when you get the posse together for a night out, it’s nice to have that option, I’m just saying. I know the wine country would never get one but I already have thought up a bunch of cool names. “grapes and garters,” “Grape string divas,” “poles and vines” I can go on and on, I’ve had crazier ideas, this could work.
ParticipantI do remember it, I was actually thinking about it when I was trying to figure out what they would do with the school and writing that post, and that place was just an outpatient place. Now that I think of it, that would have made a terrible location for a strip club, but how about in the industrial park, seriously it’s like 50 miles to the nearest one, you’d think elsinore would have one by now, I’m all for keeping the residential areas residential but sometimes when you get the posse together for a night out, it’s nice to have that option, I’m just saying. I know the wine country would never get one but I already have thought up a bunch of cool names. “grapes and garters,” “Grape string divas,” “poles and vines” I can go on and on, I’ve had crazier ideas, this could work.
ParticipantI do remember it, I was actually thinking about it when I was trying to figure out what they would do with the school and writing that post, and that place was just an outpatient place. Now that I think of it, that would have made a terrible location for a strip club, but how about in the industrial park, seriously it’s like 50 miles to the nearest one, you’d think elsinore would have one by now, I’m all for keeping the residential areas residential but sometimes when you get the posse together for a night out, it’s nice to have that option, I’m just saying. I know the wine country would never get one but I already have thought up a bunch of cool names. “grapes and garters,” “Grape string divas,” “poles and vines” I can go on and on, I’ve had crazier ideas, this could work.
ParticipantI do remember it, I was actually thinking about it when I was trying to figure out what they would do with the school and writing that post, and that place was just an outpatient place. Now that I think of it, that would have made a terrible location for a strip club, but how about in the industrial park, seriously it’s like 50 miles to the nearest one, you’d think elsinore would have one by now, I’m all for keeping the residential areas residential but sometimes when you get the posse together for a night out, it’s nice to have that option, I’m just saying. I know the wine country would never get one but I already have thought up a bunch of cool names. “grapes and garters,” “Grape string divas,” “poles and vines” I can go on and on, I’ve had crazier ideas, this could work.
ParticipantI do remember it, I was actually thinking about it when I was trying to figure out what they would do with the school and writing that post, and that place was just an outpatient place. Now that I think of it, that would have made a terrible location for a strip club, but how about in the industrial park, seriously it’s like 50 miles to the nearest one, you’d think elsinore would have one by now, I’m all for keeping the residential areas residential but sometimes when you get the posse together for a night out, it’s nice to have that option, I’m just saying. I know the wine country would never get one but I already have thought up a bunch of cool names. “grapes and garters,” “Grape string divas,” “poles and vines” I can go on and on, I’ve had crazier ideas, this could work.
Participant[quote=ocrenter]And the winners, 5yearwaiter and TG
Submitted by 5yearwaiter on August 17, 2007 – 9:09pm.
The real worth for this kind of home when built was around 577K in the year of 2003. I will add 6% to this amount from that period which means it supposed to be worth of 737000.
Submitted by temeculaguy on August 17, 2007 – 10:32pm.
‘m guessing it’s gonna take a hit. I like what the others have said, 700k range,
10240 Paseo De Linda, San Diego, CA 92127
–5 beds, 5 baths, 3,574 sq ft
–03/09/2009: $720,000 ($201/sqft)[/quote]Sweet, oc, nice reset of a cool old thread, I especially like how on page 2 schizo called a bunch of us out by quoting us and bolding his analysis, I believe he said I was just plain wrong, I hope he sees this, how you like me know beee-otch, I’m co-champion with 5year.
After reading the whole thread, nearly two years later, I wonder where in the timeline we are right now, fundamentals put it at 700k, I wonder how far the overcorrection will take it, I honestly think we are entering the overcorrection and if the shadow hits as scheduled by the end of the year, we will see the low water marks, because we have reached equilibrium now. I still maintain that the 350k predictions will never happen maybe some 6’s will show up, slim chance of some 5’s but maybe.
I like that line about the olympic knife catching team too, I’m a little disapointed in my writing of late, I’ve lost my edge, happiness is the death of creativity. I’m all snuggled in my pad, enjoying my comfortable mortage, new gal pal is great, if the lakers finish off the rockets tomorrow, get by the nuggets and find an answer for lebron (which is probably not possible) then I think I’ll may not write anything funny or edgy until football season, I will have lost the drive, anger and frustration brings out the best in me. With the way they have played against such a depleted rockets team, I have a feeling I will get to be mad until football starts and my norv turner rage kicks in.
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