[temeculaguy]

The fixed rate may help you sleep better in the coming years. Nobody knows exactly what will happen but the risk of inflation and/or higher rates is real. I can’t say when or how high, but there are a lot of possibilities and even more variables. There are no variables with a fixed rate. After reading Former’s analysis, I agree, go fixed, betting that rates average below 5.625% over 4 years doesn’t sound like a safe bet. It may feel like that now but looking back over my lifetime, sub 6% were rare periods and rarely sustained, probably equal to the amount of time it was double digits.

[temeculaguy]

The fixed rate may help you sleep better in the coming years. Nobody knows exactly what will happen but the risk of inflation and/or higher rates is real. I can’t say when or how high, but there are a lot of possibilities and even more variables. There are no variables with a fixed rate. After reading Former’s analysis, I agree, go fixed, betting that rates average below 5.625% over 4 years doesn’t sound like a safe bet. It may feel like that now but looking back over my lifetime, sub 6% were rare periods and rarely sustained, probably equal to the amount of time it was double digits.

[temeculaguy]

The fixed rate may help you sleep better in the coming years. Nobody knows exactly what will happen but the risk of inflation and/or higher rates is real. I can’t say when or how high, but there are a lot of possibilities and even more variables. There are no variables with a fixed rate. After reading Former’s analysis, I agree, go fixed, betting that rates average below 5.625% over 4 years doesn’t sound like a safe bet. It may feel like that now but looking back over my lifetime, sub 6% were rare periods and rarely sustained, probably equal to the amount of time it was double digits.

[temeculaguy]

The fixed rate may help you sleep better in the coming years. Nobody knows exactly what will happen but the risk of inflation and/or higher rates is real. I can’t say when or how high, but there are a lot of possibilities and even more variables. There are no variables with a fixed rate. After reading Former’s analysis, I agree, go fixed, betting that rates average below 5.625% over 4 years doesn’t sound like a safe bet. It may feel like that now but looking back over my lifetime, sub 6% were rare periods and rarely sustained, probably equal to the amount of time it was double digits.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=santeeman]Maybe Sean O is full of sh**, and not Sean O after all…..duh[/quote]

He passed the smell test, you can click on people’s name, see how long they have been a member and select “track,” then look at all the threads they have posted on. I did this for SeanO, he posted over a year ago and it was a well written and intelligent post consistent with who he claims to be. That’s good enough for me to ask a question.

It’s kinda easy to spot the posers, spammers and yahoos just by what they say. Writing style is also a good way to determine those who get born again with new screen names or switch between names.

You’d also be suprised by who reads blogs like this one

[temeculaguy]

[quote=santeeman]Maybe Sean O is full of sh**, and not Sean O after all…..duh[/quote]

He passed the smell test, you can click on people’s name, see how long they have been a member and select “track,” then look at all the threads they have posted on. I did this for SeanO, he posted over a year ago and it was a well written and intelligent post consistent with who he claims to be. That’s good enough for me to ask a question.

It’s kinda easy to spot the posers, spammers and yahoos just by what they say. Writing style is also a good way to determine those who get born again with new screen names or switch between names.

You’d also be suprised by who reads blogs like this one

[temeculaguy]

[quote=santeeman]Maybe Sean O is full of sh**, and not Sean O after all…..duh[/quote]

He passed the smell test, you can click on people’s name, see how long they have been a member and select “track,” then look at all the threads they have posted on. I did this for SeanO, he posted over a year ago and it was a well written and intelligent post consistent with who he claims to be. That’s good enough for me to ask a question.

It’s kinda easy to spot the posers, spammers and yahoos just by what they say. Writing style is also a good way to determine those who get born again with new screen names or switch between names.

You’d also be suprised by who reads blogs like this one

[temeculaguy]

[quote=santeeman]Maybe Sean O is full of sh**, and not Sean O after all…..duh[/quote]

He passed the smell test, you can click on people’s name, see how long they have been a member and select “track,” then look at all the threads they have posted on. I did this for SeanO, he posted over a year ago and it was a well written and intelligent post consistent with who he claims to be. That’s good enough for me to ask a question.

It’s kinda easy to spot the posers, spammers and yahoos just by what they say. Writing style is also a good way to determine those who get born again with new screen names or switch between names.

You’d also be suprised by who reads blogs like this one

[temeculaguy]

[quote=santeeman]Maybe Sean O is full of sh**, and not Sean O after all…..duh[/quote]

He passed the smell test, you can click on people’s name, see how long they have been a member and select “track,” then look at all the threads they have posted on. I did this for SeanO, he posted over a year ago and it was a well written and intelligent post consistent with who he claims to be. That’s good enough for me to ask a question.

It’s kinda easy to spot the posers, spammers and yahoos just by what they say. Writing style is also a good way to determine those who get born again with new screen names or switch between names.

You’d also be suprised by who reads blogs like this one

[temeculaguy]

Rt. 66, here’s why I dislike R/T and why I am skeptical about some of the data, perhaps the owner of forecloure radar can help explain some of it.

I just ran my zip code on realtytrac, foreclosure radar and foreclosure dot com. Wildly different results and R/T is always the highest.

R/T

704 nods
424 nots
537 bank owned

Radar

580 nods
302 nots
183 bank owned

f dot com

719 nods and nots (they combine them)
330 bank owned

Combined nod not for r/t is 30-50% more than the other 2 services and the bank owned is 3x what radar says. It makes me go hmmm, and sometimes causes me to pooh pooh the data from all of them.

How do three websites using the same county recorders office get wildly different numbers?

It’s like three network news weather guys, one says it will be 60 one says it will be 80 and one says it will be 100, just because you are planning to hang by the pool, don’t listen to the guy who says it will be hot and ignore the rest, they could all be wrong, at least two of them are.

I say you listen to all three weather guys, then look outside, then look at your own thermometer, then talk to the old guys at the barber shop and even if after all that, you decide to wear shorts, bring a jacket just in case.

BTW, Thanks for the compliment, see, even we can get along.

[temeculaguy]

Rt. 66, here’s why I dislike R/T and why I am skeptical about some of the data, perhaps the owner of forecloure radar can help explain some of it.

I just ran my zip code on realtytrac, foreclosure radar and foreclosure dot com. Wildly different results and R/T is always the highest.

R/T

704 nods
424 nots
537 bank owned

Radar

580 nods
302 nots
183 bank owned

f dot com

719 nods and nots (they combine them)
330 bank owned

Combined nod not for r/t is 30-50% more than the other 2 services and the bank owned is 3x what radar says. It makes me go hmmm, and sometimes causes me to pooh pooh the data from all of them.

How do three websites using the same county recorders office get wildly different numbers?

It’s like three network news weather guys, one says it will be 60 one says it will be 80 and one says it will be 100, just because you are planning to hang by the pool, don’t listen to the guy who says it will be hot and ignore the rest, they could all be wrong, at least two of them are.

I say you listen to all three weather guys, then look outside, then look at your own thermometer, then talk to the old guys at the barber shop and even if after all that, you decide to wear shorts, bring a jacket just in case.

BTW, Thanks for the compliment, see, even we can get along.

[temeculaguy]

Rt. 66, here’s why I dislike R/T and why I am skeptical about some of the data, perhaps the owner of forecloure radar can help explain some of it.

I just ran my zip code on realtytrac, foreclosure radar and foreclosure dot com. Wildly different results and R/T is always the highest.

R/T

704 nods
424 nots
537 bank owned

Radar

580 nods
302 nots
183 bank owned

f dot com

719 nods and nots (they combine them)
330 bank owned

Combined nod not for r/t is 30-50% more than the other 2 services and the bank owned is 3x what radar says. It makes me go hmmm, and sometimes causes me to pooh pooh the data from all of them.

How do three websites using the same county recorders office get wildly different numbers?

It’s like three network news weather guys, one says it will be 60 one says it will be 80 and one says it will be 100, just because you are planning to hang by the pool, don’t listen to the guy who says it will be hot and ignore the rest, they could all be wrong, at least two of them are.

I say you listen to all three weather guys, then look outside, then look at your own thermometer, then talk to the old guys at the barber shop and even if after all that, you decide to wear shorts, bring a jacket just in case.

BTW, Thanks for the compliment, see, even we can get along.

[temeculaguy]

Rt. 66, here’s why I dislike R/T and why I am skeptical about some of the data, perhaps the owner of forecloure radar can help explain some of it.

I just ran my zip code on realtytrac, foreclosure radar and foreclosure dot com. Wildly different results and R/T is always the highest.

R/T

704 nods
424 nots
537 bank owned

Radar

580 nods
302 nots
183 bank owned

f dot com

719 nods and nots (they combine them)
330 bank owned

Combined nod not for r/t is 30-50% more than the other 2 services and the bank owned is 3x what radar says. It makes me go hmmm, and sometimes causes me to pooh pooh the data from all of them.

How do three websites using the same county recorders office get wildly different numbers?

It’s like three network news weather guys, one says it will be 60 one says it will be 80 and one says it will be 100, just because you are planning to hang by the pool, don’t listen to the guy who says it will be hot and ignore the rest, they could all be wrong, at least two of them are.

I say you listen to all three weather guys, then look outside, then look at your own thermometer, then talk to the old guys at the barber shop and even if after all that, you decide to wear shorts, bring a jacket just in case.

BTW, Thanks for the compliment, see, even we can get along.

[temeculaguy]

Rt. 66, here’s why I dislike R/T and why I am skeptical about some of the data, perhaps the owner of forecloure radar can help explain some of it.

I just ran my zip code on realtytrac, foreclosure radar and foreclosure dot com. Wildly different results and R/T is always the highest.

R/T

704 nods
424 nots
537 bank owned

Radar

580 nods
302 nots
183 bank owned

f dot com

719 nods and nots (they combine them)
330 bank owned

Combined nod not for r/t is 30-50% more than the other 2 services and the bank owned is 3x what radar says. It makes me go hmmm, and sometimes causes me to pooh pooh the data from all of them.

How do three websites using the same county recorders office get wildly different numbers?

It’s like three network news weather guys, one says it will be 60 one says it will be 80 and one says it will be 100, just because you are planning to hang by the pool, don’t listen to the guy who says it will be hot and ignore the rest, they could all be wrong, at least two of them are.

I say you listen to all three weather guys, then look outside, then look at your own thermometer, then talk to the old guys at the barber shop and even if after all that, you decide to wear shorts, bring a jacket just in case.

BTW, Thanks for the compliment, see, even we can get along.

[temeculaguy]

sduuude’s intuition is probably correct and so is his analytical side. Since the majority of the market is not organic listings, they did not show up when the seasonal demand did, especially in family neighborhoods where people like to buy in spring and move in summer. The repos will list in fall and winter at the same rate as spring but the buyers will be fewer. In past makets, both sellers and buyers had the same seasonal psychology, this is different, wait for fall/winter. In some parts of S.D. it will take till fall/winter of 2010 for the pain train to reach it.

Then there is the painful truth that some parts of s.d. will always cost more than others. In your shopping, if you see houses that are overpriced and you zillow a few model matches to determine the 2001-2003 price and it’s still too much, time to put the kids in the car and find another area. Carlsbad will not reach Santee’s pre bubble price, it will reach Carlsbad’s pre bubble price. If the pad you like needs to revert to it’s 1980’s price, no amount of patience will serve you.

[Author]

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