[temeculaguy]

I just like the general theme of the latest buyers’ overall plan. None of them are calculating an increase in value into their plan. Things like “the same as my rent,” “able to afford on one income if neccesary” and “a year of reserves” are catch phrases that warm the heart. None of them say “real estate will go up in value” or “I’ll just refi later when it adjusts.”

It’s also nice to see affordability for my brothers and sisters in S.D., six months ago, my hood was the only place it was happening, at the time I postulated that this trend would move into the other areas and markets and we all know how much I enjoy being right.

[temeculaguy]

I just like the general theme of the latest buyers’ overall plan. None of them are calculating an increase in value into their plan. Things like “the same as my rent,” “able to afford on one income if neccesary” and “a year of reserves” are catch phrases that warm the heart. None of them say “real estate will go up in value” or “I’ll just refi later when it adjusts.”

It’s also nice to see affordability for my brothers and sisters in S.D., six months ago, my hood was the only place it was happening, at the time I postulated that this trend would move into the other areas and markets and we all know how much I enjoy being right.

[temeculaguy]

I just like the general theme of the latest buyers’ overall plan. None of them are calculating an increase in value into their plan. Things like “the same as my rent,” “able to afford on one income if neccesary” and “a year of reserves” are catch phrases that warm the heart. None of them say “real estate will go up in value” or “I’ll just refi later when it adjusts.”

It’s also nice to see affordability for my brothers and sisters in S.D., six months ago, my hood was the only place it was happening, at the time I postulated that this trend would move into the other areas and markets and we all know how much I enjoy being right.

[temeculaguy]

I just like the general theme of the latest buyers’ overall plan. None of them are calculating an increase in value into their plan. Things like “the same as my rent,” “able to afford on one income if neccesary” and “a year of reserves” are catch phrases that warm the heart. None of them say “real estate will go up in value” or “I’ll just refi later when it adjusts.”

It’s also nice to see affordability for my brothers and sisters in S.D., six months ago, my hood was the only place it was happening, at the time I postulated that this trend would move into the other areas and markets and we all know how much I enjoy being right.

[temeculaguy]

Props GOUSC/radelow, groundbreaking stuff to get one to pencil out in La Jolla and your financial plan is well thought out and contains a lot of options and potential fallback positions. You may not realize it, but you and the half dozen other posters/buyers this week are laying out the blueprint for the other piggies. Heavy reserves, underextending, guarded optimism and a solid plan for what might or might not happen. Not one of you is banking on appreciation.

My hat is tipped to you!

[temeculaguy]

Props GOUSC/radelow, groundbreaking stuff to get one to pencil out in La Jolla and your financial plan is well thought out and contains a lot of options and potential fallback positions. You may not realize it, but you and the half dozen other posters/buyers this week are laying out the blueprint for the other piggies. Heavy reserves, underextending, guarded optimism and a solid plan for what might or might not happen. Not one of you is banking on appreciation.

My hat is tipped to you!

[temeculaguy]

Props GOUSC/radelow, groundbreaking stuff to get one to pencil out in La Jolla and your financial plan is well thought out and contains a lot of options and potential fallback positions. You may not realize it, but you and the half dozen other posters/buyers this week are laying out the blueprint for the other piggies. Heavy reserves, underextending, guarded optimism and a solid plan for what might or might not happen. Not one of you is banking on appreciation.

My hat is tipped to you!

[temeculaguy]

Props GOUSC/radelow, groundbreaking stuff to get one to pencil out in La Jolla and your financial plan is well thought out and contains a lot of options and potential fallback positions. You may not realize it, but you and the half dozen other posters/buyers this week are laying out the blueprint for the other piggies. Heavy reserves, underextending, guarded optimism and a solid plan for what might or might not happen. Not one of you is banking on appreciation.

My hat is tipped to you!

[temeculaguy]

Props GOUSC/radelow, groundbreaking stuff to get one to pencil out in La Jolla and your financial plan is well thought out and contains a lot of options and potential fallback positions. You may not realize it, but you and the half dozen other posters/buyers this week are laying out the blueprint for the other piggies. Heavy reserves, underextending, guarded optimism and a solid plan for what might or might not happen. Not one of you is banking on appreciation.

My hat is tipped to you!

[temeculaguy]

[quote=4plexowner]lots of rationalization about this and that – nobody addressed this undeniable fact:

3. what about the fact that previous real estate downturns in SoCal have been 6 to 7 years which puts a bottom in 2012 to 2014 at the earliest?[/quote]

I’ll address it, The six year cycle is not peak to bottom, it’s the peak to the start of the next cycle and it’s not always a flat line. The last cycle I timed completely wrong, bought in 1992 (chronilogically equivalent to 2006), was upside down for the next 5-6 years and was back to even in 1998, sold for what I paid, got my downpayment back and the transaction costs, but no profit to speak of. In that cycle, the actual bottom wasn’t 1998, things started to turn around in 1998, the best bargains weren’t in 1998. I did buy another house that year, I still got a decent deal, but 1995 and 1996 was when the real bargains could have been had. I couldn’t sell my place during that time, I tried, but I couldn’t sell without a loss until 1998. If I didn’t have a place that I needed to sell, if I had been older and wiser and possessed the balls to just keep my first house as a rental, I would have bought in 1995/1996, which was about three years after things peaked, not 6-7, by then, it was too late. Twice I have tried to time the cycle, but I was always both a seller and a buyer, and in time I learned that when you are both, it doesn’t matter so much. That is why this cycle I decided to rent during the decline.

2012-2014, anything can happen, we can be on the spam and ammo plan, who knows. But I’m gonna dance with the one that brung me, this is the third cycle I’ve watched and participated in, and my experience is that 2012-2014 will be too late, 2009/2010 is the buying season, as long as you don’t have to sell.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=4plexowner]lots of rationalization about this and that – nobody addressed this undeniable fact:

3. what about the fact that previous real estate downturns in SoCal have been 6 to 7 years which puts a bottom in 2012 to 2014 at the earliest?[/quote]

I’ll address it, The six year cycle is not peak to bottom, it’s the peak to the start of the next cycle and it’s not always a flat line. The last cycle I timed completely wrong, bought in 1992 (chronilogically equivalent to 2006), was upside down for the next 5-6 years and was back to even in 1998, sold for what I paid, got my downpayment back and the transaction costs, but no profit to speak of. In that cycle, the actual bottom wasn’t 1998, things started to turn around in 1998, the best bargains weren’t in 1998. I did buy another house that year, I still got a decent deal, but 1995 and 1996 was when the real bargains could have been had. I couldn’t sell my place during that time, I tried, but I couldn’t sell without a loss until 1998. If I didn’t have a place that I needed to sell, if I had been older and wiser and possessed the balls to just keep my first house as a rental, I would have bought in 1995/1996, which was about three years after things peaked, not 6-7, by then, it was too late. Twice I have tried to time the cycle, but I was always both a seller and a buyer, and in time I learned that when you are both, it doesn’t matter so much. That is why this cycle I decided to rent during the decline.

2012-2014, anything can happen, we can be on the spam and ammo plan, who knows. But I’m gonna dance with the one that brung me, this is the third cycle I’ve watched and participated in, and my experience is that 2012-2014 will be too late, 2009/2010 is the buying season, as long as you don’t have to sell.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=4plexowner]lots of rationalization about this and that – nobody addressed this undeniable fact:

3. what about the fact that previous real estate downturns in SoCal have been 6 to 7 years which puts a bottom in 2012 to 2014 at the earliest?[/quote]

I’ll address it, The six year cycle is not peak to bottom, it’s the peak to the start of the next cycle and it’s not always a flat line. The last cycle I timed completely wrong, bought in 1992 (chronilogically equivalent to 2006), was upside down for the next 5-6 years and was back to even in 1998, sold for what I paid, got my downpayment back and the transaction costs, but no profit to speak of. In that cycle, the actual bottom wasn’t 1998, things started to turn around in 1998, the best bargains weren’t in 1998. I did buy another house that year, I still got a decent deal, but 1995 and 1996 was when the real bargains could have been had. I couldn’t sell my place during that time, I tried, but I couldn’t sell without a loss until 1998. If I didn’t have a place that I needed to sell, if I had been older and wiser and possessed the balls to just keep my first house as a rental, I would have bought in 1995/1996, which was about three years after things peaked, not 6-7, by then, it was too late. Twice I have tried to time the cycle, but I was always both a seller and a buyer, and in time I learned that when you are both, it doesn’t matter so much. That is why this cycle I decided to rent during the decline.

2012-2014, anything can happen, we can be on the spam and ammo plan, who knows. But I’m gonna dance with the one that brung me, this is the third cycle I’ve watched and participated in, and my experience is that 2012-2014 will be too late, 2009/2010 is the buying season, as long as you don’t have to sell.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=4plexowner]lots of rationalization about this and that – nobody addressed this undeniable fact:

3. what about the fact that previous real estate downturns in SoCal have been 6 to 7 years which puts a bottom in 2012 to 2014 at the earliest?[/quote]

I’ll address it, The six year cycle is not peak to bottom, it’s the peak to the start of the next cycle and it’s not always a flat line. The last cycle I timed completely wrong, bought in 1992 (chronilogically equivalent to 2006), was upside down for the next 5-6 years and was back to even in 1998, sold for what I paid, got my downpayment back and the transaction costs, but no profit to speak of. In that cycle, the actual bottom wasn’t 1998, things started to turn around in 1998, the best bargains weren’t in 1998. I did buy another house that year, I still got a decent deal, but 1995 and 1996 was when the real bargains could have been had. I couldn’t sell my place during that time, I tried, but I couldn’t sell without a loss until 1998. If I didn’t have a place that I needed to sell, if I had been older and wiser and possessed the balls to just keep my first house as a rental, I would have bought in 1995/1996, which was about three years after things peaked, not 6-7, by then, it was too late. Twice I have tried to time the cycle, but I was always both a seller and a buyer, and in time I learned that when you are both, it doesn’t matter so much. That is why this cycle I decided to rent during the decline.

2012-2014, anything can happen, we can be on the spam and ammo plan, who knows. But I’m gonna dance with the one that brung me, this is the third cycle I’ve watched and participated in, and my experience is that 2012-2014 will be too late, 2009/2010 is the buying season, as long as you don’t have to sell.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=4plexowner]lots of rationalization about this and that – nobody addressed this undeniable fact:

3. what about the fact that previous real estate downturns in SoCal have been 6 to 7 years which puts a bottom in 2012 to 2014 at the earliest?[/quote]

I’ll address it, The six year cycle is not peak to bottom, it’s the peak to the start of the next cycle and it’s not always a flat line. The last cycle I timed completely wrong, bought in 1992 (chronilogically equivalent to 2006), was upside down for the next 5-6 years and was back to even in 1998, sold for what I paid, got my downpayment back and the transaction costs, but no profit to speak of. In that cycle, the actual bottom wasn’t 1998, things started to turn around in 1998, the best bargains weren’t in 1998. I did buy another house that year, I still got a decent deal, but 1995 and 1996 was when the real bargains could have been had. I couldn’t sell my place during that time, I tried, but I couldn’t sell without a loss until 1998. If I didn’t have a place that I needed to sell, if I had been older and wiser and possessed the balls to just keep my first house as a rental, I would have bought in 1995/1996, which was about three years after things peaked, not 6-7, by then, it was too late. Twice I have tried to time the cycle, but I was always both a seller and a buyer, and in time I learned that when you are both, it doesn’t matter so much. That is why this cycle I decided to rent during the decline.

2012-2014, anything can happen, we can be on the spam and ammo plan, who knows. But I’m gonna dance with the one that brung me, this is the third cycle I’ve watched and participated in, and my experience is that 2012-2014 will be too late, 2009/2010 is the buying season, as long as you don’t have to sell.

[temeculaguy]

Somewhere around 30% of the homes in the country have no mortgage (that’s a negotiable stat in CA, I couldn’t find a CA number I trusted). Many of these are owned by older people and here in CA, prop 13 creates a situation where it is more beneficial to keep a home in the family when people die or need different living arrangements. This is why I am hesitant to factor in pure baby boomer stats as future inventory. In my own family, we never parted with R/E that was purchased in the 1970’s or earlier, maybe one or two of the kids buys out the others, maybe it became a rental if nobody needed or wanted to live there, but you think long and hard about selling it because of the property tax implications. My grandmothers house which she bought in the 1950’s had a yearly tax bill of something like $500 and was worth 500k, that’s 1/10th of a percent and the taxes don’t reset if transfered between family members or kept in trust, you just dont give that up without careful consideration. Prop 13 was designed to help older homeowners and 30 years later, we will see if it has an effect, but if I was livig in a paid off house with a $50 monthly property tax bill, I don’t know if I’d leave until they carted me off, then my kids would probably think long and hard about selling the only house they will ever be able to have where they essentially don’t have to pay property taxes on.

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