[temeculaguy]

crap, that sfr is a short, my bad, but there are others that are similar that are not shorts, I try not to use shorts for examples. Unfortunately by the time I finish writing a post, the reo’s are sold and the link doesn’t work before the first person reads it, so maybe it’s better that I used that example.

[temeculaguy]

crap, that sfr is a short, my bad, but there are others that are similar that are not shorts, I try not to use shorts for examples. Unfortunately by the time I finish writing a post, the reo’s are sold and the link doesn’t work before the first person reads it, so maybe it’s better that I used that example.

[temeculaguy]

crap, that sfr is a short, my bad, but there are others that are similar that are not shorts, I try not to use shorts for examples. Unfortunately by the time I finish writing a post, the reo’s are sold and the link doesn’t work before the first person reads it, so maybe it’s better that I used that example.

[temeculaguy]

crap, that sfr is a short, my bad, but there are others that are similar that are not shorts, I try not to use shorts for examples. Unfortunately by the time I finish writing a post, the reo’s are sold and the link doesn’t work before the first person reads it, so maybe it’s better that I used that example.

[temeculaguy]

I like the “Mesa Corollary,” It fits into what I was trying to say about the mid level rental market.

I still believe in CA, I’ve been hearing for 40 years that everyone will leave, not that Econ’s argument is a cogent one as always, just that I’ve always seen it bounce back, I feel it always will. I also agree that other states have advantages, but i don’t want rental property too far away because I plan on managing it myself.

I’m skeptical of Mo Val, jobs are the only reason to live there and that can change, so there’s more speculation in that area.

Here’s why I am the Temec cheerleader, Vegas and Pheonix prices without the drive. Two examples, one sfr and one condoish apartmentish place, the links may not last, they were listed today, unlikely they will last the weekend (another reason I am still sidelined)

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/44830-Potestas-Dr-92592/home/6246905

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31359-Taylor-Ln-92592/home/6680030

The SFR’s fair rent is about 1400-1500 and the condo is about 1100-1300

Both are about 30 cents on the dollar from peak, the SFR is actually at it’s 1993 price. It is appealing to dog owners vs the condo, but lacks the amenities, it also has no hoa.

The condo will have hoa on the negative, however, pools, a gym, water, landscaping and trash, you have to factor that in, plus it’s newer. Neither are out on the outskirts, both are right in the middle of the most expensive zip code of the region with the best schools, they are the cheapest and smallest in that zip code, something I look for in a rental.

Just two examples of Pheonix and Vegas in your own backyard and a reason I feel the bottom in this area is upon us and a better deal than things in neigboring states. Neither of these are in a barrio, they are the cheapest way into top noth schools as well and in low crime areas with minimal rental stock.

The SFR looks and costs the same as my first house that I bought almost 20 years ago. Re-read that last sentence. For a good decade i kicked myself for selling that starter house and not making it a rental and it feels like i just stumbled onto a time machine. It is also fair to mention that when I bought that first house i think the interest rate was 8%.

The P&I for the entire $135k is $725, humor me for a minute, this falls into the affordability argument. A school teacher with a stay at home wife and a couple of babies can qualify for and comfortably afford that house, very comfortably. How 1950’s is that? I checked the comps, at peak they broke 400k for the sfr, that is no 400k house but imho, it’s no 135k house either, this is why I think it’s overshot the bottom because it costs about twice as much to rent than to buy after the tax deduction, when is the last time you saw that?

[temeculaguy]

I like the “Mesa Corollary,” It fits into what I was trying to say about the mid level rental market.

I still believe in CA, I’ve been hearing for 40 years that everyone will leave, not that Econ’s argument is a cogent one as always, just that I’ve always seen it bounce back, I feel it always will. I also agree that other states have advantages, but i don’t want rental property too far away because I plan on managing it myself.

I’m skeptical of Mo Val, jobs are the only reason to live there and that can change, so there’s more speculation in that area.

Here’s why I am the Temec cheerleader, Vegas and Pheonix prices without the drive. Two examples, one sfr and one condoish apartmentish place, the links may not last, they were listed today, unlikely they will last the weekend (another reason I am still sidelined)

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/44830-Potestas-Dr-92592/home/6246905

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31359-Taylor-Ln-92592/home/6680030

The SFR’s fair rent is about 1400-1500 and the condo is about 1100-1300

Both are about 30 cents on the dollar from peak, the SFR is actually at it’s 1993 price. It is appealing to dog owners vs the condo, but lacks the amenities, it also has no hoa.

The condo will have hoa on the negative, however, pools, a gym, water, landscaping and trash, you have to factor that in, plus it’s newer. Neither are out on the outskirts, both are right in the middle of the most expensive zip code of the region with the best schools, they are the cheapest and smallest in that zip code, something I look for in a rental.

Just two examples of Pheonix and Vegas in your own backyard and a reason I feel the bottom in this area is upon us and a better deal than things in neigboring states. Neither of these are in a barrio, they are the cheapest way into top noth schools as well and in low crime areas with minimal rental stock.

The SFR looks and costs the same as my first house that I bought almost 20 years ago. Re-read that last sentence. For a good decade i kicked myself for selling that starter house and not making it a rental and it feels like i just stumbled onto a time machine. It is also fair to mention that when I bought that first house i think the interest rate was 8%.

The P&I for the entire $135k is $725, humor me for a minute, this falls into the affordability argument. A school teacher with a stay at home wife and a couple of babies can qualify for and comfortably afford that house, very comfortably. How 1950’s is that? I checked the comps, at peak they broke 400k for the sfr, that is no 400k house but imho, it’s no 135k house either, this is why I think it’s overshot the bottom because it costs about twice as much to rent than to buy after the tax deduction, when is the last time you saw that?

[temeculaguy]

I like the “Mesa Corollary,” It fits into what I was trying to say about the mid level rental market.

I still believe in CA, I’ve been hearing for 40 years that everyone will leave, not that Econ’s argument is a cogent one as always, just that I’ve always seen it bounce back, I feel it always will. I also agree that other states have advantages, but i don’t want rental property too far away because I plan on managing it myself.

I’m skeptical of Mo Val, jobs are the only reason to live there and that can change, so there’s more speculation in that area.

Here’s why I am the Temec cheerleader, Vegas and Pheonix prices without the drive. Two examples, one sfr and one condoish apartmentish place, the links may not last, they were listed today, unlikely they will last the weekend (another reason I am still sidelined)

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/44830-Potestas-Dr-92592/home/6246905

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31359-Taylor-Ln-92592/home/6680030

The SFR’s fair rent is about 1400-1500 and the condo is about 1100-1300

Both are about 30 cents on the dollar from peak, the SFR is actually at it’s 1993 price. It is appealing to dog owners vs the condo, but lacks the amenities, it also has no hoa.

The condo will have hoa on the negative, however, pools, a gym, water, landscaping and trash, you have to factor that in, plus it’s newer. Neither are out on the outskirts, both are right in the middle of the most expensive zip code of the region with the best schools, they are the cheapest and smallest in that zip code, something I look for in a rental.

Just two examples of Pheonix and Vegas in your own backyard and a reason I feel the bottom in this area is upon us and a better deal than things in neigboring states. Neither of these are in a barrio, they are the cheapest way into top noth schools as well and in low crime areas with minimal rental stock.

The SFR looks and costs the same as my first house that I bought almost 20 years ago. Re-read that last sentence. For a good decade i kicked myself for selling that starter house and not making it a rental and it feels like i just stumbled onto a time machine. It is also fair to mention that when I bought that first house i think the interest rate was 8%.

The P&I for the entire $135k is $725, humor me for a minute, this falls into the affordability argument. A school teacher with a stay at home wife and a couple of babies can qualify for and comfortably afford that house, very comfortably. How 1950’s is that? I checked the comps, at peak they broke 400k for the sfr, that is no 400k house but imho, it’s no 135k house either, this is why I think it’s overshot the bottom because it costs about twice as much to rent than to buy after the tax deduction, when is the last time you saw that?

[temeculaguy]

I like the “Mesa Corollary,” It fits into what I was trying to say about the mid level rental market.

I still believe in CA, I’ve been hearing for 40 years that everyone will leave, not that Econ’s argument is a cogent one as always, just that I’ve always seen it bounce back, I feel it always will. I also agree that other states have advantages, but i don’t want rental property too far away because I plan on managing it myself.

I’m skeptical of Mo Val, jobs are the only reason to live there and that can change, so there’s more speculation in that area.

Here’s why I am the Temec cheerleader, Vegas and Pheonix prices without the drive. Two examples, one sfr and one condoish apartmentish place, the links may not last, they were listed today, unlikely they will last the weekend (another reason I am still sidelined)

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/44830-Potestas-Dr-92592/home/6246905

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31359-Taylor-Ln-92592/home/6680030

The SFR’s fair rent is about 1400-1500 and the condo is about 1100-1300

Both are about 30 cents on the dollar from peak, the SFR is actually at it’s 1993 price. It is appealing to dog owners vs the condo, but lacks the amenities, it also has no hoa.

The condo will have hoa on the negative, however, pools, a gym, water, landscaping and trash, you have to factor that in, plus it’s newer. Neither are out on the outskirts, both are right in the middle of the most expensive zip code of the region with the best schools, they are the cheapest and smallest in that zip code, something I look for in a rental.

Just two examples of Pheonix and Vegas in your own backyard and a reason I feel the bottom in this area is upon us and a better deal than things in neigboring states. Neither of these are in a barrio, they are the cheapest way into top noth schools as well and in low crime areas with minimal rental stock.

The SFR looks and costs the same as my first house that I bought almost 20 years ago. Re-read that last sentence. For a good decade i kicked myself for selling that starter house and not making it a rental and it feels like i just stumbled onto a time machine. It is also fair to mention that when I bought that first house i think the interest rate was 8%.

The P&I for the entire $135k is $725, humor me for a minute, this falls into the affordability argument. A school teacher with a stay at home wife and a couple of babies can qualify for and comfortably afford that house, very comfortably. How 1950’s is that? I checked the comps, at peak they broke 400k for the sfr, that is no 400k house but imho, it’s no 135k house either, this is why I think it’s overshot the bottom because it costs about twice as much to rent than to buy after the tax deduction, when is the last time you saw that?

[temeculaguy]

I like the “Mesa Corollary,” It fits into what I was trying to say about the mid level rental market.

I still believe in CA, I’ve been hearing for 40 years that everyone will leave, not that Econ’s argument is a cogent one as always, just that I’ve always seen it bounce back, I feel it always will. I also agree that other states have advantages, but i don’t want rental property too far away because I plan on managing it myself.

I’m skeptical of Mo Val, jobs are the only reason to live there and that can change, so there’s more speculation in that area.

Here’s why I am the Temec cheerleader, Vegas and Pheonix prices without the drive. Two examples, one sfr and one condoish apartmentish place, the links may not last, they were listed today, unlikely they will last the weekend (another reason I am still sidelined)

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/44830-Potestas-Dr-92592/home/6246905

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31359-Taylor-Ln-92592/home/6680030

The SFR’s fair rent is about 1400-1500 and the condo is about 1100-1300

Both are about 30 cents on the dollar from peak, the SFR is actually at it’s 1993 price. It is appealing to dog owners vs the condo, but lacks the amenities, it also has no hoa.

The condo will have hoa on the negative, however, pools, a gym, water, landscaping and trash, you have to factor that in, plus it’s newer. Neither are out on the outskirts, both are right in the middle of the most expensive zip code of the region with the best schools, they are the cheapest and smallest in that zip code, something I look for in a rental.

Just two examples of Pheonix and Vegas in your own backyard and a reason I feel the bottom in this area is upon us and a better deal than things in neigboring states. Neither of these are in a barrio, they are the cheapest way into top noth schools as well and in low crime areas with minimal rental stock.

The SFR looks and costs the same as my first house that I bought almost 20 years ago. Re-read that last sentence. For a good decade i kicked myself for selling that starter house and not making it a rental and it feels like i just stumbled onto a time machine. It is also fair to mention that when I bought that first house i think the interest rate was 8%.

The P&I for the entire $135k is $725, humor me for a minute, this falls into the affordability argument. A school teacher with a stay at home wife and a couple of babies can qualify for and comfortably afford that house, very comfortably. How 1950’s is that? I checked the comps, at peak they broke 400k for the sfr, that is no 400k house but imho, it’s no 135k house either, this is why I think it’s overshot the bottom because it costs about twice as much to rent than to buy after the tax deduction, when is the last time you saw that?

[temeculaguy]

Thanks JP,it’s usually about me, but it wasn’t this time, I was trying to illustrate how the sweeping bear comments just don’t make sense anymore. We are down to area specific anomolies. The region as a whole is fundamentally sound again, but some areas are not and some areas may have overshot and bounced a bit, some areas may still overshoot to the downside. There are still some ripples and wrinkles to be ironed out, bugs used to talk about the butterfly effect, that it wont drop everywhere at the same time, that it takes years to settle. I still think you will get what you want, you’ve always known your chosen location would be at the back of the line and you are patient. If i were you, I would still wait, a 15% drop from peak is unacceptable and unsustainable, but when it gets to it’s pre bubble numbers, then that’s it, you gotta switch camps.

I am rooting for you and you are one of the reasons I still love this place.

Enron, I dig that quote, it’s so easy to get caught up in hysteria and so difficult to slow down and have alittle perspective, thanks for providing mine today.

[temeculaguy]

Thanks JP,it’s usually about me, but it wasn’t this time, I was trying to illustrate how the sweeping bear comments just don’t make sense anymore. We are down to area specific anomolies. The region as a whole is fundamentally sound again, but some areas are not and some areas may have overshot and bounced a bit, some areas may still overshoot to the downside. There are still some ripples and wrinkles to be ironed out, bugs used to talk about the butterfly effect, that it wont drop everywhere at the same time, that it takes years to settle. I still think you will get what you want, you’ve always known your chosen location would be at the back of the line and you are patient. If i were you, I would still wait, a 15% drop from peak is unacceptable and unsustainable, but when it gets to it’s pre bubble numbers, then that’s it, you gotta switch camps.

I am rooting for you and you are one of the reasons I still love this place.

Enron, I dig that quote, it’s so easy to get caught up in hysteria and so difficult to slow down and have alittle perspective, thanks for providing mine today.

[temeculaguy]

Thanks JP,it’s usually about me, but it wasn’t this time, I was trying to illustrate how the sweeping bear comments just don’t make sense anymore. We are down to area specific anomolies. The region as a whole is fundamentally sound again, but some areas are not and some areas may have overshot and bounced a bit, some areas may still overshoot to the downside. There are still some ripples and wrinkles to be ironed out, bugs used to talk about the butterfly effect, that it wont drop everywhere at the same time, that it takes years to settle. I still think you will get what you want, you’ve always known your chosen location would be at the back of the line and you are patient. If i were you, I would still wait, a 15% drop from peak is unacceptable and unsustainable, but when it gets to it’s pre bubble numbers, then that’s it, you gotta switch camps.

I am rooting for you and you are one of the reasons I still love this place.

Enron, I dig that quote, it’s so easy to get caught up in hysteria and so difficult to slow down and have alittle perspective, thanks for providing mine today.

[temeculaguy]

Thanks JP,it’s usually about me, but it wasn’t this time, I was trying to illustrate how the sweeping bear comments just don’t make sense anymore. We are down to area specific anomolies. The region as a whole is fundamentally sound again, but some areas are not and some areas may have overshot and bounced a bit, some areas may still overshoot to the downside. There are still some ripples and wrinkles to be ironed out, bugs used to talk about the butterfly effect, that it wont drop everywhere at the same time, that it takes years to settle. I still think you will get what you want, you’ve always known your chosen location would be at the back of the line and you are patient. If i were you, I would still wait, a 15% drop from peak is unacceptable and unsustainable, but when it gets to it’s pre bubble numbers, then that’s it, you gotta switch camps.

I am rooting for you and you are one of the reasons I still love this place.

Enron, I dig that quote, it’s so easy to get caught up in hysteria and so difficult to slow down and have alittle perspective, thanks for providing mine today.

[temeculaguy]

Thanks JP,it’s usually about me, but it wasn’t this time, I was trying to illustrate how the sweeping bear comments just don’t make sense anymore. We are down to area specific anomolies. The region as a whole is fundamentally sound again, but some areas are not and some areas may have overshot and bounced a bit, some areas may still overshoot to the downside. There are still some ripples and wrinkles to be ironed out, bugs used to talk about the butterfly effect, that it wont drop everywhere at the same time, that it takes years to settle. I still think you will get what you want, you’ve always known your chosen location would be at the back of the line and you are patient. If i were you, I would still wait, a 15% drop from peak is unacceptable and unsustainable, but when it gets to it’s pre bubble numbers, then that’s it, you gotta switch camps.

I am rooting for you and you are one of the reasons I still love this place.

Enron, I dig that quote, it’s so easy to get caught up in hysteria and so difficult to slow down and have alittle perspective, thanks for providing mine today.

[temeculaguy]

Vegas scares me because I don’t know enough about it and it’s problems seem too large, too much based on tourism.

The I/E is tricky, gotta be picky with regards to communities. There are some opportunities appearing, probably the hardest hit areas are those around March AFB, it never recovered from the base closing or the last downturn. I’ve never actually been there because it’s an armpit and I have no reason to go there but there have been some developments lately that will cause a demand for rentals.

http://nctimes.com/news/local/swcounty/article_889d6fee-4ae3-56f6-98e8-77234209cac6.html

I can’t find the articles but there is also a korean rail car company and a korean household goods company (don’t know what that means, maybe spoons and blenders and walmart crap) that are setting up deals there to manufacture. The closed base area has freight access to LA, OC and SD, plus a cargo airport and is in some foriegn enterprise zone for taxes. I don’t know what it all means other than dirt cheap rentals and bunch of jobs for renter type demographics.

I want to add a grain of salt, the one that has kept me from the lower end neighborhoods and high density rentals. The lowest end jobs are the ones getting beat up the most, the welfare benefits are being reduced and illegal aliens are moving away and self deporting. This means less low end renters, at least it’s a fair argument and one that has me shying away from what are some good numbers.

The low end SD areas, you gotta ask someone else, but they are places that may suffer a similar fate. As a community, it’s not the worst thing in the world to have your poorest pack up in search of greener pastures, but as a landlord, it would suck because they are pretty much the only people that will live there.

I also keep reading stories regarding certain schools and districts that serve primarily spanish speaking students are losing enrollment, it’s a more transient demographic than others, I’m afraid of being left holding the bag if the shift increases.

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