[temeculaguy]

Hitler and desmond, those were funny, but you have to humor me here, I was being sincere and trying to pull a reverse jinx. Since his arrival I have said he was the problem and they lost in the playoffs, now I get on his bandwagon, perhaps I can change the course of history. You might find it amusing that I think that I can alter the results of a game by my actions, but the other maniacs will understand me. I’ve chosen to not watch certain games, to not eat certain foods while watching certain games, to watch certain games with certain people, all in the name of reproducing past success or avoid past failure. When you find a true sports fan, one who’s mood can be altered based on the outcome of a game, one who’s heart rate and blood pressure can be affected, then you will find someone who believes in jinx’s, the reverse jinx and the double reverse.

If the chargers win the superbowl, I will take full credit, I will be convinced that my support of Norv was the key, I will likely get into a future bar brawl because someone slighted him. But if they lose next week, I will keep searching for that magic formula and my role in their luck, eventually I’ll find it. This is about as hard to explain and someone’s religion, but it’s real to me so it’s real. I gotta go, the games start in a little while, I have my rituals to attend to.

[temeculaguy]

Hitler and desmond, those were funny, but you have to humor me here, I was being sincere and trying to pull a reverse jinx. Since his arrival I have said he was the problem and they lost in the playoffs, now I get on his bandwagon, perhaps I can change the course of history. You might find it amusing that I think that I can alter the results of a game by my actions, but the other maniacs will understand me. I’ve chosen to not watch certain games, to not eat certain foods while watching certain games, to watch certain games with certain people, all in the name of reproducing past success or avoid past failure. When you find a true sports fan, one who’s mood can be altered based on the outcome of a game, one who’s heart rate and blood pressure can be affected, then you will find someone who believes in jinx’s, the reverse jinx and the double reverse.

If the chargers win the superbowl, I will take full credit, I will be convinced that my support of Norv was the key, I will likely get into a future bar brawl because someone slighted him. But if they lose next week, I will keep searching for that magic formula and my role in their luck, eventually I’ll find it. This is about as hard to explain and someone’s religion, but it’s real to me so it’s real. I gotta go, the games start in a little while, I have my rituals to attend to.

[temeculaguy]

Hitler and desmond, those were funny, but you have to humor me here, I was being sincere and trying to pull a reverse jinx. Since his arrival I have said he was the problem and they lost in the playoffs, now I get on his bandwagon, perhaps I can change the course of history. You might find it amusing that I think that I can alter the results of a game by my actions, but the other maniacs will understand me. I’ve chosen to not watch certain games, to not eat certain foods while watching certain games, to watch certain games with certain people, all in the name of reproducing past success or avoid past failure. When you find a true sports fan, one who’s mood can be altered based on the outcome of a game, one who’s heart rate and blood pressure can be affected, then you will find someone who believes in jinx’s, the reverse jinx and the double reverse.

If the chargers win the superbowl, I will take full credit, I will be convinced that my support of Norv was the key, I will likely get into a future bar brawl because someone slighted him. But if they lose next week, I will keep searching for that magic formula and my role in their luck, eventually I’ll find it. This is about as hard to explain and someone’s religion, but it’s real to me so it’s real. I gotta go, the games start in a little while, I have my rituals to attend to.

[temeculaguy]

Hitler and desmond, those were funny, but you have to humor me here, I was being sincere and trying to pull a reverse jinx. Since his arrival I have said he was the problem and they lost in the playoffs, now I get on his bandwagon, perhaps I can change the course of history. You might find it amusing that I think that I can alter the results of a game by my actions, but the other maniacs will understand me. I’ve chosen to not watch certain games, to not eat certain foods while watching certain games, to watch certain games with certain people, all in the name of reproducing past success or avoid past failure. When you find a true sports fan, one who’s mood can be altered based on the outcome of a game, one who’s heart rate and blood pressure can be affected, then you will find someone who believes in jinx’s, the reverse jinx and the double reverse.

If the chargers win the superbowl, I will take full credit, I will be convinced that my support of Norv was the key, I will likely get into a future bar brawl because someone slighted him. But if they lose next week, I will keep searching for that magic formula and my role in their luck, eventually I’ll find it. This is about as hard to explain and someone’s religion, but it’s real to me so it’s real. I gotta go, the games start in a little while, I have my rituals to attend to.

[temeculaguy]

Ok I found one that answers the high end question a little better

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/43505-San-Fermin-Pl-92592/home/6199671

built and sold new for 800k in 1992, sold for 875k in 1998, out here, from 1992 to 1998, the market was flat, in 1998 200k got you a nice 2500 sq ft tract house, then they went nuts and tract homes jumped to 600k then back to about 300k, now that 200k 1998 house is 300-350k, still above it’s 1992-1998 numbers but well below 2006 prices.

So this high end place’s bottom was 875k, I’d guess it’s peak at over 2 mil, it listed a year ago as an organic listing for 2 mil, and has been reduces over time to 1.4. But it’s tax rolls list 4k sq ft and it now has 6k sq ft, so the current owners may have added 1/3 to the sq ft. Even without that, if the place went for let’s say 1.2, it would be 4x a nice tract home nearby and in 1992-1998 it was 4x as well, so I’d say it’s found it’s reality. This supports the notion that the ultra high end took it’s hit in 2009, while the mid to high took it in 2008. Things don’t always happen at the same time but they find a way to become balanced.

However, I think this place might go below 1.2, it may have an overshoot still in store, because the hefner pad in my previous post was 1.2 and I think this older one doesn’t come close. The only trick with these is that with such little data and comps, is the hefner pad just a steal or is this overpriced, I don’t know, my head hurts from thinking of how many maids and gardners you’d need for any of them. I have friends that have these pads, I attend their parties, then go home and the next day i mow my lawn in ten minutes, it’s better that way.

[temeculaguy]

Ok I found one that answers the high end question a little better

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/43505-San-Fermin-Pl-92592/home/6199671

built and sold new for 800k in 1992, sold for 875k in 1998, out here, from 1992 to 1998, the market was flat, in 1998 200k got you a nice 2500 sq ft tract house, then they went nuts and tract homes jumped to 600k then back to about 300k, now that 200k 1998 house is 300-350k, still above it’s 1992-1998 numbers but well below 2006 prices.

So this high end place’s bottom was 875k, I’d guess it’s peak at over 2 mil, it listed a year ago as an organic listing for 2 mil, and has been reduces over time to 1.4. But it’s tax rolls list 4k sq ft and it now has 6k sq ft, so the current owners may have added 1/3 to the sq ft. Even without that, if the place went for let’s say 1.2, it would be 4x a nice tract home nearby and in 1992-1998 it was 4x as well, so I’d say it’s found it’s reality. This supports the notion that the ultra high end took it’s hit in 2009, while the mid to high took it in 2008. Things don’t always happen at the same time but they find a way to become balanced.

However, I think this place might go below 1.2, it may have an overshoot still in store, because the hefner pad in my previous post was 1.2 and I think this older one doesn’t come close. The only trick with these is that with such little data and comps, is the hefner pad just a steal or is this overpriced, I don’t know, my head hurts from thinking of how many maids and gardners you’d need for any of them. I have friends that have these pads, I attend their parties, then go home and the next day i mow my lawn in ten minutes, it’s better that way.

[temeculaguy]

Ok I found one that answers the high end question a little better

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/43505-San-Fermin-Pl-92592/home/6199671

built and sold new for 800k in 1992, sold for 875k in 1998, out here, from 1992 to 1998, the market was flat, in 1998 200k got you a nice 2500 sq ft tract house, then they went nuts and tract homes jumped to 600k then back to about 300k, now that 200k 1998 house is 300-350k, still above it’s 1992-1998 numbers but well below 2006 prices.

So this high end place’s bottom was 875k, I’d guess it’s peak at over 2 mil, it listed a year ago as an organic listing for 2 mil, and has been reduces over time to 1.4. But it’s tax rolls list 4k sq ft and it now has 6k sq ft, so the current owners may have added 1/3 to the sq ft. Even without that, if the place went for let’s say 1.2, it would be 4x a nice tract home nearby and in 1992-1998 it was 4x as well, so I’d say it’s found it’s reality. This supports the notion that the ultra high end took it’s hit in 2009, while the mid to high took it in 2008. Things don’t always happen at the same time but they find a way to become balanced.

However, I think this place might go below 1.2, it may have an overshoot still in store, because the hefner pad in my previous post was 1.2 and I think this older one doesn’t come close. The only trick with these is that with such little data and comps, is the hefner pad just a steal or is this overpriced, I don’t know, my head hurts from thinking of how many maids and gardners you’d need for any of them. I have friends that have these pads, I attend their parties, then go home and the next day i mow my lawn in ten minutes, it’s better that way.

[temeculaguy]

Ok I found one that answers the high end question a little better

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/43505-San-Fermin-Pl-92592/home/6199671

built and sold new for 800k in 1992, sold for 875k in 1998, out here, from 1992 to 1998, the market was flat, in 1998 200k got you a nice 2500 sq ft tract house, then they went nuts and tract homes jumped to 600k then back to about 300k, now that 200k 1998 house is 300-350k, still above it’s 1992-1998 numbers but well below 2006 prices.

So this high end place’s bottom was 875k, I’d guess it’s peak at over 2 mil, it listed a year ago as an organic listing for 2 mil, and has been reduces over time to 1.4. But it’s tax rolls list 4k sq ft and it now has 6k sq ft, so the current owners may have added 1/3 to the sq ft. Even without that, if the place went for let’s say 1.2, it would be 4x a nice tract home nearby and in 1992-1998 it was 4x as well, so I’d say it’s found it’s reality. This supports the notion that the ultra high end took it’s hit in 2009, while the mid to high took it in 2008. Things don’t always happen at the same time but they find a way to become balanced.

However, I think this place might go below 1.2, it may have an overshoot still in store, because the hefner pad in my previous post was 1.2 and I think this older one doesn’t come close. The only trick with these is that with such little data and comps, is the hefner pad just a steal or is this overpriced, I don’t know, my head hurts from thinking of how many maids and gardners you’d need for any of them. I have friends that have these pads, I attend their parties, then go home and the next day i mow my lawn in ten minutes, it’s better that way.

[temeculaguy]

Ok I found one that answers the high end question a little better

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/43505-San-Fermin-Pl-92592/home/6199671

built and sold new for 800k in 1992, sold for 875k in 1998, out here, from 1992 to 1998, the market was flat, in 1998 200k got you a nice 2500 sq ft tract house, then they went nuts and tract homes jumped to 600k then back to about 300k, now that 200k 1998 house is 300-350k, still above it’s 1992-1998 numbers but well below 2006 prices.

So this high end place’s bottom was 875k, I’d guess it’s peak at over 2 mil, it listed a year ago as an organic listing for 2 mil, and has been reduces over time to 1.4. But it’s tax rolls list 4k sq ft and it now has 6k sq ft, so the current owners may have added 1/3 to the sq ft. Even without that, if the place went for let’s say 1.2, it would be 4x a nice tract home nearby and in 1992-1998 it was 4x as well, so I’d say it’s found it’s reality. This supports the notion that the ultra high end took it’s hit in 2009, while the mid to high took it in 2008. Things don’t always happen at the same time but they find a way to become balanced.

However, I think this place might go below 1.2, it may have an overshoot still in store, because the hefner pad in my previous post was 1.2 and I think this older one doesn’t come close. The only trick with these is that with such little data and comps, is the hefner pad just a steal or is this overpriced, I don’t know, my head hurts from thinking of how many maids and gardners you’d need for any of them. I have friends that have these pads, I attend their parties, then go home and the next day i mow my lawn in ten minutes, it’s better that way.

[temeculaguy]

AN, your numbers are even tighter, the banks could easily churn through their crap in most hoods right now. Nor, you are right, I see deals all over but they supply is so tight you almost need to be an insider to get a crack at them, if the increase in supply is more than a blip, it they really are releasing inventory, then it will just make the market healthy not kill it and with work, deals will be found. querty, I shouldn’t have made a blanket statement like that, I should have qualified it. The high end tract homes or normal lots have seen the most appreciation, the further south the better, the newer the better, but stuff on land may still be falling depending on what it is, I guess that could be considered very high end. However that as a blanket statement isn’t true either, some mini ranches have appreciated, it all depends if they took their hit when they were supposed to, in 08, some didn’t and are taking it now. Redfin has a neat feature when you enter a zip code, you can pick tabs and see the 40 places that sold most recently, the 40 most expensive and the 40 with the most recent price reductions, the ranches are taking the biggest reductions and most of them but they were the most overpriced in the first place.

Here’s an example:

This is what I consider middle high end, south temecula, gated, redhawk, sold new in 2004 for 400k, listed for 365k, organic listing, it will probably sell at this price but not in one day. A trashed repo or a short that is comparable will list at 300k and have a dozen buyers on day one, last year, mid to high 2’s could have been had. My house is newer and bigger but nearby and pretty similar, 12 months ago, I got for 100k less, I firmly believe that when i bought it was the overcorrection, this is more balanced and prices aren’t jumping around right now.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45160-Jumi-Cir-92592/home/6468809

However, some of the ranches are still screaming deals, things over 600k don’t seem to have the same bounce going.

Here’s some examples:

This is a closed listing, 6900 sq feet on over 2 acres, brand new, sold for under 700k, looks like the developer crapped out and the whole street sold for about that, even in 2008, those would have been over a million.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/33203-Wolfe-St-92592/home/7648718

but ultra high end ones like this aren’t flying off the shelves, they are still having reductions

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/44509-Verde-Dr-92592/home/17343266

and this closed one went for half off, recently

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/43701-Manzano-Dr-92592/home/6199686

granted these last ones are the “in-town” mansions, not mcmansions,and not way out in wine country, the are the have your own tennis courts type hood, and admittedly, it’s not a price point I study too much, but it just seems that market still has bargains, in fact since they didn’t decline much in 2008, they are having them for the first time right now. The whoppers are pretty hard to track because they are so unique.

This is my favorite house, it is new so you can’t get peak prices, but I’d say 2-2.5 mil would have been it’s price, it listed at 1.9 and is in escrow as a short at 1.2. Sure, 1.2 isn’t affordable and seems crazy by Temecula standards, but it is right in the middle of town, a it’s freaking gorgeous, if I had the cash and the need for that size, I’d be all over that one, and judging from the the 30% less than list, they aren’t having the same experience that the tract homes are.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/43422-Calle-De-Velardo-92592/home/6327065

Did you click on the the second page of pics, the outside bar and pool, I don’t even want to think about the parties I could throw there because mowing that lawn almost gives me hives. But sweet jesus, can you just imagine the volume of ass you could pull with a pad like that, it would be hefner-esque, few things make me feel envy, and at 1.2 it’s not lotery wishing, but alas, I’m too much of a minimalist to want to deal with the upkeep, but damn.

[temeculaguy]

AN, your numbers are even tighter, the banks could easily churn through their crap in most hoods right now. Nor, you are right, I see deals all over but they supply is so tight you almost need to be an insider to get a crack at them, if the increase in supply is more than a blip, it they really are releasing inventory, then it will just make the market healthy not kill it and with work, deals will be found. querty, I shouldn’t have made a blanket statement like that, I should have qualified it. The high end tract homes or normal lots have seen the most appreciation, the further south the better, the newer the better, but stuff on land may still be falling depending on what it is, I guess that could be considered very high end. However that as a blanket statement isn’t true either, some mini ranches have appreciated, it all depends if they took their hit when they were supposed to, in 08, some didn’t and are taking it now. Redfin has a neat feature when you enter a zip code, you can pick tabs and see the 40 places that sold most recently, the 40 most expensive and the 40 with the most recent price reductions, the ranches are taking the biggest reductions and most of them but they were the most overpriced in the first place.

Here’s an example:

This is what I consider middle high end, south temecula, gated, redhawk, sold new in 2004 for 400k, listed for 365k, organic listing, it will probably sell at this price but not in one day. A trashed repo or a short that is comparable will list at 300k and have a dozen buyers on day one, last year, mid to high 2’s could have been had. My house is newer and bigger but nearby and pretty similar, 12 months ago, I got for 100k less, I firmly believe that when i bought it was the overcorrection, this is more balanced and prices aren’t jumping around right now.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45160-Jumi-Cir-92592/home/6468809

However, some of the ranches are still screaming deals, things over 600k don’t seem to have the same bounce going.

Here’s some examples:

This is a closed listing, 6900 sq feet on over 2 acres, brand new, sold for under 700k, looks like the developer crapped out and the whole street sold for about that, even in 2008, those would have been over a million.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/33203-Wolfe-St-92592/home/7648718

but ultra high end ones like this aren’t flying off the shelves, they are still having reductions

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/44509-Verde-Dr-92592/home/17343266

and this closed one went for half off, recently

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/43701-Manzano-Dr-92592/home/6199686

granted these last ones are the “in-town” mansions, not mcmansions,and not way out in wine country, the are the have your own tennis courts type hood, and admittedly, it’s not a price point I study too much, but it just seems that market still has bargains, in fact since they didn’t decline much in 2008, they are having them for the first time right now. The whoppers are pretty hard to track because they are so unique.

This is my favorite house, it is new so you can’t get peak prices, but I’d say 2-2.5 mil would have been it’s price, it listed at 1.9 and is in escrow as a short at 1.2. Sure, 1.2 isn’t affordable and seems crazy by Temecula standards, but it is right in the middle of town, a it’s freaking gorgeous, if I had the cash and the need for that size, I’d be all over that one, and judging from the the 30% less than list, they aren’t having the same experience that the tract homes are.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/43422-Calle-De-Velardo-92592/home/6327065

Did you click on the the second page of pics, the outside bar and pool, I don’t even want to think about the parties I could throw there because mowing that lawn almost gives me hives. But sweet jesus, can you just imagine the volume of ass you could pull with a pad like that, it would be hefner-esque, few things make me feel envy, and at 1.2 it’s not lotery wishing, but alas, I’m too much of a minimalist to want to deal with the upkeep, but damn.

[temeculaguy]

AN, your numbers are even tighter, the banks could easily churn through their crap in most hoods right now. Nor, you are right, I see deals all over but they supply is so tight you almost need to be an insider to get a crack at them, if the increase in supply is more than a blip, it they really are releasing inventory, then it will just make the market healthy not kill it and with work, deals will be found. querty, I shouldn’t have made a blanket statement like that, I should have qualified it. The high end tract homes or normal lots have seen the most appreciation, the further south the better, the newer the better, but stuff on land may still be falling depending on what it is, I guess that could be considered very high end. However that as a blanket statement isn’t true either, some mini ranches have appreciated, it all depends if they took their hit when they were supposed to, in 08, some didn’t and are taking it now. Redfin has a neat feature when you enter a zip code, you can pick tabs and see the 40 places that sold most recently, the 40 most expensive and the 40 with the most recent price reductions, the ranches are taking the biggest reductions and most of them but they were the most overpriced in the first place.

Here’s an example:

This is what I consider middle high end, south temecula, gated, redhawk, sold new in 2004 for 400k, listed for 365k, organic listing, it will probably sell at this price but not in one day. A trashed repo or a short that is comparable will list at 300k and have a dozen buyers on day one, last year, mid to high 2’s could have been had. My house is newer and bigger but nearby and pretty similar, 12 months ago, I got for 100k less, I firmly believe that when i bought it was the overcorrection, this is more balanced and prices aren’t jumping around right now.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45160-Jumi-Cir-92592/home/6468809

However, some of the ranches are still screaming deals, things over 600k don’t seem to have the same bounce going.

Here’s some examples:

This is a closed listing, 6900 sq feet on over 2 acres, brand new, sold for under 700k, looks like the developer crapped out and the whole street sold for about that, even in 2008, those would have been over a million.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/33203-Wolfe-St-92592/home/7648718

but ultra high end ones like this aren’t flying off the shelves, they are still having reductions

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/44509-Verde-Dr-92592/home/17343266

and this closed one went for half off, recently

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/43701-Manzano-Dr-92592/home/6199686

granted these last ones are the “in-town” mansions, not mcmansions,and not way out in wine country, the are the have your own tennis courts type hood, and admittedly, it’s not a price point I study too much, but it just seems that market still has bargains, in fact since they didn’t decline much in 2008, they are having them for the first time right now. The whoppers are pretty hard to track because they are so unique.

This is my favorite house, it is new so you can’t get peak prices, but I’d say 2-2.5 mil would have been it’s price, it listed at 1.9 and is in escrow as a short at 1.2. Sure, 1.2 isn’t affordable and seems crazy by Temecula standards, but it is right in the middle of town, a it’s freaking gorgeous, if I had the cash and the need for that size, I’d be all over that one, and judging from the the 30% less than list, they aren’t having the same experience that the tract homes are.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/43422-Calle-De-Velardo-92592/home/6327065

Did you click on the the second page of pics, the outside bar and pool, I don’t even want to think about the parties I could throw there because mowing that lawn almost gives me hives. But sweet jesus, can you just imagine the volume of ass you could pull with a pad like that, it would be hefner-esque, few things make me feel envy, and at 1.2 it’s not lotery wishing, but alas, I’m too much of a minimalist to want to deal with the upkeep, but damn.

[temeculaguy]

AN, your numbers are even tighter, the banks could easily churn through their crap in most hoods right now. Nor, you are right, I see deals all over but they supply is so tight you almost need to be an insider to get a crack at them, if the increase in supply is more than a blip, it they really are releasing inventory, then it will just make the market healthy not kill it and with work, deals will be found. querty, I shouldn’t have made a blanket statement like that, I should have qualified it. The high end tract homes or normal lots have seen the most appreciation, the further south the better, the newer the better, but stuff on land may still be falling depending on what it is, I guess that could be considered very high end. However that as a blanket statement isn’t true either, some mini ranches have appreciated, it all depends if they took their hit when they were supposed to, in 08, some didn’t and are taking it now. Redfin has a neat feature when you enter a zip code, you can pick tabs and see the 40 places that sold most recently, the 40 most expensive and the 40 with the most recent price reductions, the ranches are taking the biggest reductions and most of them but they were the most overpriced in the first place.

Here’s an example:

This is what I consider middle high end, south temecula, gated, redhawk, sold new in 2004 for 400k, listed for 365k, organic listing, it will probably sell at this price but not in one day. A trashed repo or a short that is comparable will list at 300k and have a dozen buyers on day one, last year, mid to high 2’s could have been had. My house is newer and bigger but nearby and pretty similar, 12 months ago, I got for 100k less, I firmly believe that when i bought it was the overcorrection, this is more balanced and prices aren’t jumping around right now.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45160-Jumi-Cir-92592/home/6468809

However, some of the ranches are still screaming deals, things over 600k don’t seem to have the same bounce going.

Here’s some examples:

This is a closed listing, 6900 sq feet on over 2 acres, brand new, sold for under 700k, looks like the developer crapped out and the whole street sold for about that, even in 2008, those would have been over a million.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/33203-Wolfe-St-92592/home/7648718

but ultra high end ones like this aren’t flying off the shelves, they are still having reductions

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/44509-Verde-Dr-92592/home/17343266

and this closed one went for half off, recently

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/43701-Manzano-Dr-92592/home/6199686

granted these last ones are the “in-town” mansions, not mcmansions,and not way out in wine country, the are the have your own tennis courts type hood, and admittedly, it’s not a price point I study too much, but it just seems that market still has bargains, in fact since they didn’t decline much in 2008, they are having them for the first time right now. The whoppers are pretty hard to track because they are so unique.

This is my favorite house, it is new so you can’t get peak prices, but I’d say 2-2.5 mil would have been it’s price, it listed at 1.9 and is in escrow as a short at 1.2. Sure, 1.2 isn’t affordable and seems crazy by Temecula standards, but it is right in the middle of town, a it’s freaking gorgeous, if I had the cash and the need for that size, I’d be all over that one, and judging from the the 30% less than list, they aren’t having the same experience that the tract homes are.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/43422-Calle-De-Velardo-92592/home/6327065

Did you click on the the second page of pics, the outside bar and pool, I don’t even want to think about the parties I could throw there because mowing that lawn almost gives me hives. But sweet jesus, can you just imagine the volume of ass you could pull with a pad like that, it would be hefner-esque, few things make me feel envy, and at 1.2 it’s not lotery wishing, but alas, I’m too much of a minimalist to want to deal with the upkeep, but damn.

[temeculaguy]

AN, your numbers are even tighter, the banks could easily churn through their crap in most hoods right now. Nor, you are right, I see deals all over but they supply is so tight you almost need to be an insider to get a crack at them, if the increase in supply is more than a blip, it they really are releasing inventory, then it will just make the market healthy not kill it and with work, deals will be found. querty, I shouldn’t have made a blanket statement like that, I should have qualified it. The high end tract homes or normal lots have seen the most appreciation, the further south the better, the newer the better, but stuff on land may still be falling depending on what it is, I guess that could be considered very high end. However that as a blanket statement isn’t true either, some mini ranches have appreciated, it all depends if they took their hit when they were supposed to, in 08, some didn’t and are taking it now. Redfin has a neat feature when you enter a zip code, you can pick tabs and see the 40 places that sold most recently, the 40 most expensive and the 40 with the most recent price reductions, the ranches are taking the biggest reductions and most of them but they were the most overpriced in the first place.

Here’s an example:

This is what I consider middle high end, south temecula, gated, redhawk, sold new in 2004 for 400k, listed for 365k, organic listing, it will probably sell at this price but not in one day. A trashed repo or a short that is comparable will list at 300k and have a dozen buyers on day one, last year, mid to high 2’s could have been had. My house is newer and bigger but nearby and pretty similar, 12 months ago, I got for 100k less, I firmly believe that when i bought it was the overcorrection, this is more balanced and prices aren’t jumping around right now.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45160-Jumi-Cir-92592/home/6468809

However, some of the ranches are still screaming deals, things over 600k don’t seem to have the same bounce going.

Here’s some examples:

This is a closed listing, 6900 sq feet on over 2 acres, brand new, sold for under 700k, looks like the developer crapped out and the whole street sold for about that, even in 2008, those would have been over a million.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/33203-Wolfe-St-92592/home/7648718

but ultra high end ones like this aren’t flying off the shelves, they are still having reductions

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/44509-Verde-Dr-92592/home/17343266

and this closed one went for half off, recently

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/43701-Manzano-Dr-92592/home/6199686

granted these last ones are the “in-town” mansions, not mcmansions,and not way out in wine country, the are the have your own tennis courts type hood, and admittedly, it’s not a price point I study too much, but it just seems that market still has bargains, in fact since they didn’t decline much in 2008, they are having them for the first time right now. The whoppers are pretty hard to track because they are so unique.

This is my favorite house, it is new so you can’t get peak prices, but I’d say 2-2.5 mil would have been it’s price, it listed at 1.9 and is in escrow as a short at 1.2. Sure, 1.2 isn’t affordable and seems crazy by Temecula standards, but it is right in the middle of town, a it’s freaking gorgeous, if I had the cash and the need for that size, I’d be all over that one, and judging from the the 30% less than list, they aren’t having the same experience that the tract homes are.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/43422-Calle-De-Velardo-92592/home/6327065

Did you click on the the second page of pics, the outside bar and pool, I don’t even want to think about the parties I could throw there because mowing that lawn almost gives me hives. But sweet jesus, can you just imagine the volume of ass you could pull with a pad like that, it would be hefner-esque, few things make me feel envy, and at 1.2 it’s not lotery wishing, but alas, I’m too much of a minimalist to want to deal with the upkeep, but damn.

[temeculaguy]

Be careful mojo, you are going to get the tsuinami crowd all pissed off by using numbers and such. Might I suggest you mention relationships, child rearing or politics to take the focus off of numbers, especially those numbers that suggest the bottom has passed. Might I suggest that you attack the validity of the employment estimates because the estimator is a woman and probably hates short men, or that Obama forced them to put out rosy estimates, it just makes it more fun, nobody wants to swallow bitter pills.

[Author]

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