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November 11, 2022 at 3:46 PM in reply to: Reminder: People never shut up about crypto gains, never mention the losses #826937
svelteParticipant[quote=carlsbadworker]
2. “Why does anybody think that governments are going to let untraceable money stand?…governments will be left with no choice other than to take action.”Why does anybody think that governments are going to let free speech to be mediated by a few large company like Facebook? Again, if you take a US centric view, maybe there is more to lose than what the government could gain. But Chinese government is already minting cash digitally, in a re-imagination of money that could shake a pillar of American power.
[/quote]Don’t follow your analogy but that’s OK.
News articles are starting to appear showing the US government can indeed trace crypto to a large degree. So it’s not untraceable. I still think it will be regulated somehow but it may take a major crisis of some sort to make that happen.
[quote=carlsbadworker]
That all, said, I have no doubt that crypto is in bubble territorial, but bubble is maybe what we need for every technology revolution. In fact, you look at history, every major technology change comes with a financial bubble. Industry revolution -> South Sea Bubble; Railroad -> Railway Mania; Age of Oil/Automobile -> The roaring 20s; Internet -> Dotcom bubble. It is the bubble that provides the financial capital to lay out the infrastructure to allow the next generation of entrepreneurs to take advantage of it.I do not personally own crypto…other than the free credit from my coinbase account. But I think it is wrong to completely discredit crypto…and there might be good investment opportunities after all the dust has settled.[/quote]
I do agree with you on the bubble aspect. It’s now worth half what it was when you wrote the above.
And we haven’t even reached a point where unemployment is high. I would imagine it will go much lower when that happens.
svelteParticipant[quote=sdrealtor]There’s one problem with this hypothesis. SLO is 10 miles from the coast and is really more coastal then inland in location. . It is basically San Marcos equivalent. It’s the same distance as SDSU to Ocean Beach[/quote]
Which may explain why SLO is not all that conservative judging by the Dem vs Rep registration. There are much more conservative areas of the state.
And coastal = Dem inland = Rep is an overgeneralization but pretty accurate if you subtract out inland big cities which also tend Dem.
svelteParticipant2020 Numbers
California Inland College Town Counties
SLO County…..37% Dem 34% Rep
Fresno County..39% Dem 32% Rep….(Fresno State)
Butte County…35% Dem 35% Rep….(Chico State)
Riverside Co…39% Dem 32% Rep….(UC Riverside)Want to see some really conservative counties?
Kern County….34% D 36% R….spread 2%
Tulare Co……33% D 38% R….spread 5%
Inyo Co…….33% D 39% R….spread 6%
Madera Co……32% D 39% R….spread 7%
Del Norte Co…29% D 39% R….spread 10%
Colusa Co……31% D 41% R….spread 10%
Siskiyou Co….30% D 40% R….spread 10%
Sutter Co……30% D 40% R….spread 10%
El Dorado Co…30% D 41% R….spread 11%
Placer Co……30% D 41% R….spread 11%
Yuba Co……..28% D 39% R….spread 11%
Sierra Co……28% D 42% R….spread 14%
Plumas Co……29% D 44% R….spread 15%
Tuolumne Co….29% D 44% R….spread 15%
Glenn County…28% D 44% R….spread 16%
Mariposa Co….28% D 45% R….spread 17%
Amador Co……28% D 46% R….spread 18%
Shasta Co……23% D 41% R….spread 18%
Calaveras Co…27% D 46% R….spread 19%
Tehama Co……28% D 47% R….spread 19%
Modoc County…21% D 54% R….spread 33%
Lassen County..18% D 54% R….spread 36%I’ve lived in a few of those counties for a number of years – they are conservative!
Many of the counties on this list are north-northeast of Sacramento. If you drive in that area you’ll see plenty of “State of Jefferson” signs…they want to break off from California and form their own state! A whole different world than the California coast I can tell you. I have friends and family there so I visit often.
Note that the only inland college town county that starts to lean red is Butte, which is north-northeast of Sacramento.
https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/ror/15day-gen-2020/county.pdf
svelteParticipantPretty much anything that is not coastal is very conservative in California.
svelteParticipantStarting to hear rumblings that AirBnB hosts are starting to feel pain nationwide. This may be less of a problem in San Diego, I don’t know, but it is something to keep an eye on.
If AirBnB owners in SD start to bail, we may see another leg down.
svelteParticipantPigs vs Humans
Story that has fascinated me this week: four twenty-something men take off on their bicycles at 8 PM on Sunday apparently for a night of thievery. They never return home. That Friday their chopped-up bodies are found in a river south of town. A nearby junk yard owner disappears on the run. He was 9 years in to a 10 year postponement of a felony charge. Guess he’ll probably be back in the pokey soon.
Just another week in Okmulgee.
Moral of the story: a junkyard owner is meaner than four grown men.
I now return you to the pigs.
October 14, 2022 at 4:08 PM in reply to: Krugman: interest rates would return to virtually nothing once the inflation fight is over #826813svelteParticipant[quote=an]Wonder when the inflation fight will be over. It’s transitory, right?[/quote]
You’re implying it’ll be a while and I think you are right.
Interest rates may indeed go low again but I bet it will take a few years. Just my opinion.
This sure feels like a replay of the 1970s even with OPEC ratcheting down production. History doesn’t repeat itself but it rhymes.
October 8, 2022 at 10:14 AM in reply to: You folks that took out 30 year loans / refinances at 3% or lower…you’re banking now. #826801svelteParticipant[quote=scaredyclassic]So if you have no extra monies and refinance, I agree, it’s all gravy. But if you have a 500k mortgage and much more than that in monies to possibly pay it off, and you refi, you are gambling you can do better than the interest rate you’re paying, after tax.
Gambling. Yep. Not a bad bet, but gambling.[/quote]
Agreed.
I can see both sides of the coin – nobody’s going to get severely burned whether they cash-out refied at a low rate and put that into CDs, or whether they paid off their mortgage and kept expenses low. Both are reasonable courses of action.
And neither course is going to have a major impact on finances. One isn’t drastically better than the other.
But I tend to think that folks who see a big pile of money in their accounts will think they can spend more. So there is a chance that it will get frittered away and the financial advantage (if interest rates continue to rise and there becomes a financial advantage – I don’t believe the numbers work at the moment) would disappear if that happened.
October 7, 2022 at 4:38 PM in reply to: You folks that took out 30 year loans / refinances at 3% or lower…you’re banking now. #826795svelteParticipant[quote=sdrealtor]Huge for mine also. I crave safety and security. I always pay my own way. Having minimal fixed monthly expenses changes everything about my being. It allows me a sense of calm and to fully be myself[/quote]
+1
“All I want is to have my peace of mind”
– BostonOctober 4, 2022 at 6:04 PM in reply to: You folks that took out 30 year loans / refinances at 3% or lower…you’re banking now. #826758svelteParticipant[quote=Coronita]
But it’s not your cash to begin with.. it’s borrowed. And if it was taken on a primary.. your equity was just sitting there doing nothing anyway. Your primary isn’t earning money..[/quote]
Neither is the money your borrowed.
Let’s say you borrowed 500,000 at 3%. That’s costing you $15K per year.
Let’s say you put that 500,000 in a CD earning 4.25%. That’s 21,250
21250- 15K = 6250.
Say you pay 30% taxes, state and fed. 21250 x .30 = 6375. You’re underwater.
Let’s be very generous and say you pay 25% taxes, state and fed.
21250 x .25 = 5312. you made $900.
October 4, 2022 at 3:33 PM in reply to: You folks that took out 30 year loans / refinances at 3% or lower…you’re banking now. #826756svelteParticipant[quote=Coronita][quote=scaredyclassic]well…really, you’re just breaking even after tax. not quite a winner yet[/quote]
Yes, but we know that this will change consider we still have a boatload of rate hikes coming….[/quote]
Imagine that cash will still be worth less every year when taking into account inflation. Even after more rate hikes.
svelteParticipantFat Leonard will! He’ll live the life of a millionaire in Venezuela! Grrrrr.
svelteParticipantThis entire situation is simply amazing to me, from the corruption that kicked it all off right up through Venezuela. The amount of bungling, incompetence, greed, corruption, stupidity, insanity and carelessness. Just amazing.
Yes we as a species never learn. Each generation makes the same stupid decisions and mistakes.
svelteParticipant[quote=scaredyclassic] I’m of the opinion lately that we are incapable of changing and deserve to just die out.in fact im certain of it.[/quote]
I’m with you scaredy. I’ve slowly come to that opinion myself over the last 10-20 years.
Not sure if any of you watch the music reaction videos on YouTube, my wife and I are kind of addicted to them. It is fun to see a song through someone’s eyes/ears the first time they hear it. Brad & Lex’s channel is one of our favorites. They were just talking about change in a video they released this week covering David Bowie’s “Changes”:
Watch their conversation towards the end of the video.
I think of them as very young, yet they are already saying the folks younger than them are weird! The circle of life is making another revolution. Yet not much has changed.
Time may change me. But I can’t trace time.
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