So nobody wants to guess the peak-to-bottom percent drop.
Chickens!!!
I’ll do it. I would bet that San Marcos will be down about 50% peak-to-bottom when all is said and done, plus or minus 5 percent. That is for apples-to-apples comparisons (ie, owner-occupied sales at peak and bottom….run down foreclosures along the way could obviously go for a much lower figure). Even apples-to-apples could go lower, but I just don’t see it happening.
Right now, in the neighborhood I am most familiar with, prices appear to be down 30-35% from peak which is an astonishing number in itself. There’s more to fall, I’m sure, but I doubt that we’re only halfway down the slide.
With 50% off, a newer home that had sold for $600K in 06 would be going for $300K at bottom. That sounds about right to me. Already, I have seen a model-match of $595 at peak to $400K today. Yikes!
It will sure be interesting to see where we stand one year from now.
PS – and yes DWCAP, if someone is considering buying a house right now, it certainly does matter how much more the market is going to drop, whether that is measured it in percentages or some other concrete method. I don’t consider “on par with rent” concrete since as has been discussed rents may change. Feel free to disagree.
No one wants to guess as to what percentage off the peak we’ll fall (peak to bottom) here in San Diego county? Or in San Diego city? Or in the city of your choice?
No one wants to guess as to what percentage off the peak we’ll fall (peak to bottom) here in San Diego county? Or in San Diego city? Or in the city of your choice?
No one wants to guess as to what percentage off the peak we’ll fall (peak to bottom) here in San Diego county? Or in San Diego city? Or in the city of your choice?
No one wants to guess as to what percentage off the peak we’ll fall (peak to bottom) here in San Diego county? Or in San Diego city? Or in the city of your choice?
No one wants to guess as to what percentage off the peak we’ll fall (peak to bottom) here in San Diego county? Or in San Diego city? Or in the city of your choice?
