Forum Replies Created
-
AuthorPosts
-
svelteParticipantI read recently that the Dalai Lama thinks there should be no more Dalai Lamas after he dies.
svelteParticipantI’m not sure why you’d want the trust to specify what is done with the house at all. Let the successor trustee and beneficiaries decide the best way to proceed.
Situations change, often drastically, so it is impossible to tell how the beneficiaries lives will be structures decades in advance.
State how much each beneficiary gets, either in terms of dollars or percentages, and let them figure it out.
That’s what we’ve done. As it has turned out, only one of our children has remained in the area so we predict he will take the house as his share along with some cash while the others will likely take all cash as their share. We would prefer our house be used as a primary residence for a family member, so that arrangement would be A-OK with us. But it’s early yet, we’re hoping they don’t have to cross that bridge for decades. 🙂
In any case, pick a successor trustee who will be fair and impartial and everything should turn out fine. My parents picked me. If you don’t have kids that fall into that category pick someone outside of the family tree as the successor trustee. We know families who have done that.
I don’t know how you protect against a new spouse walking in last minute and taking lion’s share. I had worried about that with my Dad as he remarried what I considered to be a golddigger. He caught on and divorced her after a couple of years. When he passed, I went through his papers and found out they had signed a pre-nup. No one had told me about that.
svelteParticipant[quote=an][quote=svelte]
Totally bogus claim.[/quote]what development in Mira Mesa in 1987 was going for 100-105k for a 3/2 1500 sqft house?[/quote]I can’t recall the name and I didn’t save any brochures. All I can tell you is that it was south of MM Blvd and west of Westonhill. I can’t remember any more than that.
svelteParticipant[quote=The-Shoveler]hmmm don’t have exact figures but it seems to me home prices in LA went up about 4x from 1970 to 1980.
I remember my father bragging about paying off the ~1971 30 year mortgage with the Christmas bonus about 1980 or so.
Then it seems they went up about 2x between 1980 ad 1988 most of that was inflation IMO. Then 90’s defense crash in LA and 94 quake I think prices were about 40% lower in 1995 or so (from 1988).
Home prices were basically flat from 1996 – 1999 Late 1999 prices started to sky rocket with the internet bubble.
After the Stock Market crash of 2000 no one wanted anything to do with stocks LOL so they put it all in RE.[/quote]I’m trying to remember what my dad paid in 1978…he bought a similar 3/2 1500SF house about 5 miles away in a much better neighborhood with a bigger yard. I think he paid about $50K plus or minus five…in 1970 he had paid $21K so housing prices had roughly doubled in the central valley in 8 years. Two years later he sold and bought again, this time a 3/2 2000SF house and I think he paid $70-75K. Can’t remember the exact amount but he told these stories so many times I can remember the ballpark. That price indicates to me prices were still increasing a bit, but since it is apples to oranges I can’t say exactly how much.
Yes if you cherry pick an area such as NYC I am sure you can point to some examples of astounding price increases!
svelteParticipant[quote=an][quote=svelte][quote=an]
Yes, every crash is different. Not every crash cause everything to crash. Oil prices in the 70s caused massive inflation and housing went up almost 10x.
[/quote]The stock market crashed in the 70s.[/quote]
But not housing. Like I said, not everything crashes. Housing went up almost 10x.[/quote]That is an absurd claim. I was going to spend time this weekend researching it and show you, but I just figured out I already have two data points that demonstrate how outlandish it is.
I’ve stated previously that my father purchased a 3/2 1500 SF house in the central valley for $21K in 1970.
When I arrived in San Diego in 1987, a single family 3/2 1500 SF house – brand new – was selling for $100K-105K in Mira Mesa. I distinctly remember taking my dad over to show him those ridiculous prices.
San Diego, including Mira Mesa, has always been more expensive that the central valley.
If my dad’s 1970 house had went up 10x in the 1970s, it should have been worth $210K in 1980. It most definitely was not, and the fact that anyone could walk into a new development in Mira Mesa in 1987 and buy a brand new 3/2 1500 SF for $100K demonstrates that even at 17 years, prices hadn’t even went up 5x yet.
Totally bogus claim.
svelteParticipantI think I’ve been crossing back and forth between two topics in this thread and haven’t made myself clear.
Do I think housing prices will drop? Yes, at some point in the next fews years. As bad as 2008? Nope. It may not hit 20% down as sdr points out.
What I do think will happen is that stocks will crash. Probably greater than 20%, perhaps 30, unsure about 40. And I’m totally unsure of the timing of that.
I could totally be behind the times. Perhaps we are drawing so many tech jobs that housing prices won’t dip. Certainly a possibility.
Another thing I may not be factoring in is just what sdr pointed out. House price increases aren’t linear. At least in my neighborhood, we are coming off a few years of not impressive price increases. Then this year hit. Perhaps it is making up for past years when we got overlooked, and when viewed through that lens perhaps 30% increase is justified.
I don’t know. I’m not an expert. I just play one on the internet.
svelteParticipant[quote=scaredyclassic]
it is almost hard to visualize a longlasting crash. even I, a pessimist that bums out the other pessimists, didn’t sell when the pandemic hit, just kept buying. I was like, eh, nothings real anyway. i capitulate to insanity.not that I’ll actually do it, but it seems like a logical thing to do. which means it’s probably insane. the more likely thing I’ll do is pay off my stupid mortgage. stupid.[/quote]
It is pretty darn rare for assets to stay down over 10 years. I think the Great Depression is the only period I can point to like that in the US. So you’re probably right.
But we could certainly end up like Japan where things are down for decades.
Or AN could be right, perhaps inflation will stay high for much longer than I think.
The crystal ball is sure hazy. As it always is.
I’m not sure enough about anything to go all in on any strategy. I’ve kind of hedged my bets. I have money on the side so I can react should things tank. I have money in the market in case it keeps rising.
I’m still paying off my house though because i will sleep better when I know it is mine and as long as prop taxes and insurance are paid it is mine forever. I’m in a position right now where practically everyone in the US would have to be in dire straights before I would find myself in trouble. I’d like to keep it that way.
I’m not trying to have the biggest stack of cash possible when I pass. Just trying to create an enormous safety buffer around me so I can live out my final years worry free. That’s all I want. A worry-free retirement.
svelteParticipant[quote=an]
Yes, every crash is different. Not every crash cause everything to crash. Oil prices in the 70s caused massive inflation and housing went up almost 10x.
[/quote]The stock market crashed in the 70s.
[img_assist|nid=27356|title=December 1972 SP500|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=297]
[quote=an]
We have never ever before talk about up to $10T in stimulus. I don’t think it’ll stop at $10T either. [/quote]Perhaps, but I’m not convinced everything that Biden has proposed will actually be passed.
svelteParticipant[quote=scaredyclassic][quote=The-Shoveler]Good to see you post again TG,
Yea I agree sort of but right now “NOTHING” is allowed to crash. I kind of think as soon as (or if) the stimulus sugar high ends things may crash.But I do see two things that will give this a few more years yet to run IMO.
[/quote]There will be no crash in the 2020s. Financing is normal. The next crash may not be in my lifetime. It will probably be the result of some unexpected catastrophe, perhaps environmental.[/quote]
Every crash is unique and a once-in-a-lifetime event. But if you look back over the last 100 years, about every decade something has went south.
Oil prices in the 70s. Black Monday in 1987. Dot Com in 2000. Housing Bubble in 2008.
We are due a financial calamity.
It may not be in 2021 – shoveler may be right they may keep juicing this thing along for a year or two.
But the saying the bigger they are the harder they fall was made for a reason.
svelteParticipant[quote=temeculaguy]I will happily call it a bubble right now. Mark my words as I will link this post in the future… Haircuts are coming
[/quote]
This has to be true. Even Zillow is not keeping up with the price increases in my area. I am totally astounded by the April and May sales prices.I’ve been hearing people compare 2021 to the start of the roaring 1920s that also happened right after a pandemic. I’m not buying it. There were different forces at play in the 1920s. First, prices actually dropped by double-digits on things like automobiles. Second, returning WW1 soldiers are what made the 1920s roar. We don’t have a similar situation this time.
In the 2008 downturn, I was only able to position myself to weather the storm, not profit from it significantly. I’m in a different position now. I’m trying to get in a position to pounce when the bottom hits. Could I be wrong, could inflation take off and bail new home buyers out? It could happen, but I tend to think the inflation we are seeing right now is due to disrupted supply chains and will go away in 2022.
[quote=temeculaguy]
I like my house, just signed contracts for solar and tesla powerwalls
[/quote]This must mean you bought Tesla solar also as I’ve heard Tesla has announced only Tesla solar buyers can buy powerwalls now.
Two words of caution here:
1) If your roof is 20+ years old, I *strongly* recommend you replace the roof at the same time the solar panels are installed. (if you have a tile roof, replace the underlayment. If you have a shingle roof, replace the shingles).Why? Because your roof will likely start to leak in the next few years and when you need to re-roof, solar companies charge $150 per panel AND UP to remove them for the roof work and reinstall them. You do the math, it adds up quick!
I recommend the re-roof and solar install at the same time because of the chicken-and-egg thing: If roofers go first then solar, roofers could claim the solar installers voided your roof warranty. And if you do it the other way around (solar then roof) and use fly-by-nighters to remove/reinstall solar panels, then that will void your solar warranty. If you have both things done at the same time, those folks can talk to each other and work out how they each can do their work and not void the other’s warranty.
2) I have been reading reports where Tesla is upping costs by $10K+ on contracts that were already signed but not installed yet. Beware!
[quote=temeculaguy]
But these current valuations are not sustainable.
[/quote]I was reading off some recent sales prices in our area to my wife last night and finished by saying “so our house is now worth $x”. Without hesitating she said “for now”. These values have to be temporary. Prices will have to fall back to earth. I’m sorry that folks are going to get hurt…I wish more people would learn from the past. I guess the “buy now or be priced out forever” mantra is very powerful.
svelteParticipantIt’s just total nuts all over. I just checked, my house in San Marcos is up more than 30% in one year. In. Sane.
svelteParticipant[quote=gzz]Zillow keeps sending me e-mails saying I am charging too little rent. I won’t because I am too soft, I have never raised rent in my six years a-landlording.[/quote]
I like that gzz. If you have good permanent tenants, you’re obviously factoring that in to the equation – not only is it the nice thing to do, it might actually be costing you little to nothing since the places are occupied 100%…
When we were in school up north, the landlord (“Chip”) gave us a rent break because he knew we took excellent care of the place, paid on time or earlier, and helped him keep an eye on the other units since he lived elsewhere. It was win-win. A man knocked on my door one day and asked what I paid in rent, because he was considering buying the next building over. I told him but explained we got a rent break so it was not representative. Didn’t help, he cursed and stomped off saying that’s not close to what the seller next door was saying… Sorry!
How does Zillow know how much you are charging? Or is it telling you what they should rent for and you’re extrapolating…
svelteParticipantSomething I never would have believed in my younger days, but a number of my male friends have had at least one pedicure. They recommend I get one too. Haven’t done it yet.
I think what is going on is now that they have more $$, their wives are getting manicures/pedicures and they tag along on one of them and BAM they are sitting in a chair! And end up enjoying it.
Perhaps you should try it scaredy. maybe one day I will too.
svelteParticipant[quote=scaredyclassic]I prefer my car damaged.[/quote]
lol I keep most of my cars mint. Any damage fixed immediately.
About 5 years ago I had to leave at about 3 AM to go to the airport. While backing out of the garage groggy from lack of sleep I was just a wee bit close to our car on the left and its mirror (undamaged) left a crease in my truck’s front left fender. Very slight.
The more I looked at it, the more it looked like it should have been there all along! It actually looks good! Every so often I ask folks to find the one dent on the truck. Nobody has found it yet. They even question me when I point it out and tell them I put it there, I have to walk over to the other side to show them it isn’t on that side too.
It didn’t crack the paint so it is now a permanent new line on my pickup. 🙂
-
AuthorPosts