- This topic has 259 replies, 21 voices, and was last updated 2 years, 11 months ago by
scaredyclassic.
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January 20, 2021 at 12:38 PM #820454May 4, 2021 at 11:46 AM #821302
sdrealtor
ParticipantDelinquencies are dropping like a rock. March saw the biggest drop in 11 years, and the second-largest monthly improvement ever recorded. It dropped from 6.0% in February to 5.02% in March. From Black Knight’s Mortgage Monitor Report:
“Not only did March see the largest single-month improvement in delinquencies in 11 years, but all indications suggest more is yet to come,” said Graboske. “Several factors contributed to particularly strong mortgage performance in March, including the distribution of 159 million stimulus payments totaling more than $376 billion, broader economic improvement leading to nearly a million new jobs and 1.2 million forbearance plans reviewed for extension or removal, resulting in an 11% decline in plan volumes in the last 30 days. As many early forbearance plan adopters shifted to post-forbearance waterfalls to get back to performing on their mortgage payments, the inflow has continued to steadily improve as well. And, of the 7.1 million homeowners who have been in COVID-19 forbearance at one point or another, performance among those who have left plans has generally been strong. (Forbearance dropped to 2.23 million homeowners).
May 4, 2021 at 11:59 AM #821303
CoronitaParticipantTsunami of foreclosures…nope…..
More like a tsunami of buyers camping out in hotels from the bay area and other high cost areas waiting for a SFH to come on the market, and then be one of 30-50+ bidders on that one house…..
The only sad thing is. Maybe people locally might have been priced out by these buyers.
Those housing market crash in SD predictions as a result of covid? Turned to be 180 degrees the opposite.
San Diego Real Estate:
May 4, 2021 at 12:00 PM #821304gzz
ParticipantDelinquencies are dropping like a rock.
It was always stupid to count COVID forbearance as delinquency, at least in the headline delinquency rate.
If I wanted to track this closely, I’d exclude forbearance requests from employed people with high credit.
A bunch of people ignorantly or accidentally signed up for COVID forbearance, and banks encouraged it. It reduced prepayment risk when its safe credit clients signed up, and the US Gov was leaning on Chase and WFC to pump up forbearance signups.
In retrospect, the program was successful, and the stimulus package the US passed during COVID was well designed compared to Europe and Japan.
May 4, 2021 at 12:36 PM #821305ParticipantFriend was furloughed by Scripps for a month and reduced hours for a few. Took 3 month forebearance on her home and her car. Already refinanced into mortgage over 1/2% lower. Just sold car for about what she paid last year and is buying another. Didnt even leave a scratch on her life
May 5, 2021 at 10:54 AM #821314spdrun
ParticipantEviction moratorium was lifted by a Fed judge.
May 5, 2021 at 1:09 PM #821317profhoff
Participant[quote=spdrun]Eviction moratorium was lifted by a Fed judge.[/quote]
A Trump judge.
May 6, 2021 at 12:18 AM #821321temeculaguy
ParticipantI will happily call it a bubble right now. Mark my words as I will link this post in the future. The invisible hand has been stymied and nothing good ever comes from that, unless inflation counteracts it. Anecdotal case in point, my son and his wife have lived with me rent free through the pandemic and have a six figure down payment. Yes they are mid to late 20 somethings with degrees and a low six figure combined income and they cannot buy a starter home in Temecula. The last time this happened it was 2006 and we all know how that turned out. Haircuts are coming, the two freshly minted teachers rule is back in play, when two freshly minted teachers cannot buy a condo the bubble bursts, exhurbs get it first and gt it the worst, I smell Deja Vu! I like my house, just signed contracts for solar and tesla powerwalls, already got a fake lawn so I’m staying put but I’ll pick up a rental or two in the next crash, your results may vary. But thee current valuations are not sustainable.
The house I paid 270 for at the bottom in 2008 is worth 700-800, you have got to be kidding me, 500 maybe.
May 6, 2021 at 7:44 AM #821323
svelteParticipant[quote=temeculaguy]I will happily call it a bubble right now. Mark my words as I will link this post in the future… Haircuts are coming
[/quote]
This has to be true. Even Zillow is not keeping up with the price increases in my area. I am totally astounded by the April and May sales prices.I’ve been hearing people compare 2021 to the start of the roaring 1920s that also happened right after a pandemic. I’m not buying it. There were different forces at play in the 1920s. First, prices actually dropped by double-digits on things like automobiles. Second, returning WW1 soldiers are what made the 1920s roar. We don’t have a similar situation this time.
In the 2008 downturn, I was only able to position myself to weather the storm, not profit from it significantly. I’m in a different position now. I’m trying to get in a position to pounce when the bottom hits. Could I be wrong, could inflation take off and bail new home buyers out? It could happen, but I tend to think the inflation we are seeing right now is due to disrupted supply chains and will go away in 2022.
[quote=temeculaguy]
I like my house, just signed contracts for solar and tesla powerwalls
[/quote]This must mean you bought Tesla solar also as I’ve heard Tesla has announced only Tesla solar buyers can buy powerwalls now.
Two words of caution here:
1) If your roof is 20+ years old, I *strongly* recommend you replace the roof at the same time the solar panels are installed. (if you have a tile roof, replace the underlayment. If you have a shingle roof, replace the shingles).Why? Because your roof will likely start to leak in the next few years and when you need to re-roof, solar companies charge $150 per panel AND UP to remove them for the roof work and reinstall them. You do the math, it adds up quick!
I recommend the re-roof and solar install at the same time because of the chicken-and-egg thing: If roofers go first then solar, roofers could claim the solar installers voided your roof warranty. And if you do it the other way around (solar then roof) and use fly-by-nighters to remove/reinstall solar panels, then that will void your solar warranty. If you have both things done at the same time, those folks can talk to each other and work out how they each can do their work and not void the other’s warranty.
2) I have been reading reports where Tesla is upping costs by $10K+ on contracts that were already signed but not installed yet. Beware!
[quote=temeculaguy]
But these current valuations are not sustainable.
[/quote]I was reading off some recent sales prices in our area to my wife last night and finished by saying “so our house is now worth $x”. Without hesitating she said “for now”. These values have to be temporary. Prices will have to fall back to earth. I’m sorry that folks are going to get hurt…I wish more people would learn from the past. I guess the “buy now or be priced out forever” mantra is very powerful.
May 6, 2021 at 8:09 AM #821322The-Shoveler
ParticipantGood to see you post again TG,
Yea I agree sort of but right now “NOTHING” is allowed to crash. I kind of think as soon as (or if) the stimulus sugar high ends things may crash.But I do see two things that will give this a few more years yet to run IMO.
1) We are still way underbuilt so that may keep this going a few more years.
2) I think inflation will have a much larger roll to play this time so “If” they decide to end the stimulus sugar high, the crash will not be as large as last time.
I still think the last time was a once in a life time event.
One more #
3) The PTB are trying to pass a 15-25K first time buyer grant (yet more sugar LOL), and the loans being made now are not (yet) nearly as crazy as last time (still got a few years IMO).May 6, 2021 at 8:58 AM #821324scaredyclassic
Participant[quote=The-Shoveler]Good to see you post again TG,
Yea I agree sort of but right now “NOTHING” is allowed to crash. I kind of think as soon as (or if) the stimulus sugar high ends things may crash.But I do see two things that will give this a few more years yet to run IMO.
1) We are still way underbuilt so that may keep this going a few more years.
2) I think inflation will have a much larger roll to play this time so “If” they decide to end the stimulus sugar high, the crash will not be as large as last time.
I still think the last time was a once in a life time event.
One more #
3) The PTB are trying to pass a 15-25K first time buyer grant (yet more sugar LOL), and the loans being made now are not (yet) nearly as crazy as last time (still got a few years IMO).[/quote]There will be no crash in the 2020s. Financing is normal. Poorer people, including teachers, will rent. Money will only flow upward. wages will not keep pace with inflation, making wage earners poorer. This is the trend and it will continue. The next crash may not be in my lifetime. It will probably be the result of some unexpected catastrophe, perhaps environmental.
May 6, 2021 at 10:01 AM #821325svelteParticipant[quote=scaredyclassic][quote=The-Shoveler]Good to see you post again TG,
Yea I agree sort of but right now “NOTHING” is allowed to crash. I kind of think as soon as (or if) the stimulus sugar high ends things may crash.But I do see two things that will give this a few more years yet to run IMO.
[/quote]There will be no crash in the 2020s. Financing is normal. The next crash may not be in my lifetime. It will probably be the result of some unexpected catastrophe, perhaps environmental.[/quote]
Every crash is unique and a once-in-a-lifetime event. But if you look back over the last 100 years, about every decade something has went south.
Oil prices in the 70s. Black Monday in 1987. Dot Com in 2000. Housing Bubble in 2008.
We are due a financial calamity.
It may not be in 2021 – shoveler may be right they may keep juicing this thing along for a year or two.
But the saying the bigger they are the harder they fall was made for a reason.
May 6, 2021 at 10:25 AM #821327an
Participant[quote=svelte]
Every crash is unique and a once-in-a-lifetime event. But if you look back over the last 100 years, about every decade something has went south.Oil prices in the 70s. Black Monday in 1987. Dot Com in 2000. Housing Bubble in 2008.
We are due a financial calamity.
It may not be in 2021 – shoveler may be right they may keep juicing this thing along for a year or two.
But the saying the bigger they are the harder they fall was made for a reason.[/quote]
Yes, every crash is different. Not every crash cause everything to crash. Oil prices in the 70s caused massive inflation and housing went up almost 10x.We have never ever before talk about up to $10T in stimulus. I don’t think it’ll stop at $10T either. So, IMHO, we’ll probably see something along the line of late 70s again. If we can get $15/hr minimum wage, that’ll put a floor in and I’m seeing salary for engineers in San Diego going up high single digit to low double digits now compare to last year.
May 6, 2021 at 10:35 AM #821326ParticipantBubbles burst they don’t deflate. So much to disagree with but first is TG’s kid can afford a starter home. Maybe they are frustrated they can’t find what they want due to limited supply. Maybe they are being influenced by a father who has his feelings based upon his life experience. But sure as when there are too many bunnies the coyote population will surge to return balance, those kids could afford to buy a starter house in Temecula
More after my workout
May 6, 2021 at 11:03 AM #821328svelteParticipant[quote=an]
Yes, every crash is different. Not every crash cause everything to crash. Oil prices in the 70s caused massive inflation and housing went up almost 10x.
[/quote]The stock market crashed in the 70s.
[img_assist|nid=27356|title=December 1972 SP500|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=297]
[quote=an]
We have never ever before talk about up to $10T in stimulus. I don’t think it’ll stop at $10T either. [/quote]Perhaps, but I’m not convinced everything that Biden has proposed will actually be passed.
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