[stop_the_bubble_hype]

SDR,

This is great and offers far more insight into what is going on than the generalities I have been seeing in other posts here.

Very interesting on that Santa Rosa home. The builder prices that I quoted in the other thread are likely the cause. I’m going to do some drive bys this weekend to see if I can gather more information on the developments and where builder prices are currently.

We (like you) are looking to buy for family reason and plan to stay put for the long haul. I don’t want to be in a neighborhood of flippers though, and welcome the weedout of those looking to turn a quick profit. My hope is that they will be out of the market sooner than later so we can stabilize (if not in price at least in the community being less transient).

I’ll write back to you after I do more investigating.

Thanks for your comments and for not getting caught up in the negativity that becomes rampant when someone questions the prevailing thought processes here.

Hype

[stop_the_bubble_hype]

SDR,

This is great and offers far more insight into what is going on than the generalities I have been seeing in other posts here.

Very interesting on that Santa Rosa home. The builder prices that I quoted in the other thread are likely the cause. I’m going to do some drive bys this weekend to see if I can gather more information on the developments and where builder prices are currently.

We (like you) are looking to buy for family reason and plan to stay put for the long haul. I don’t want to be in a neighborhood of flippers though, and welcome the weedout of those looking to turn a quick profit. My hope is that they will be out of the market sooner than later so we can stabilize (if not in price at least in the community being less transient).

I’ll write back to you after I do more investigating.

Thanks for your comments and for not getting caught up in the negativity that becomes rampant when someone questions the prevailing thought processes here.

Hype

[stop_the_bubble_hype]

Cyphire,

Can you let us know where those steep price reductions you spoke of earlier are located?

Also, just a quick note in your above comment — 20% down would not necessitate a second morgage unless a refi is invoved.

[stop_the_bubble_hype]

Cyphire,

Can you let us know where those steep price reductions you spoke of earlier are located?

Also, just a quick note in your above comment — 20% down would not necessitate a second morgage unless a refi is invoved.

[stop_the_bubble_hype]

Cyphire,

Where are these homes you mention? At the end of 2006, I was seeing big BIG discounts all over the place but not so much lately.

Case in point: We went to Talega in San Clemente in December. Saw a nice home priced about $1M, the builder was giving an incentive up to about $150K (maybe more) on the house and I believe it was snatched up for $900K’ish with some rate buy-down included. I called Talega recently (just to track the homes) they are down to their phase and selling models at an average price of $1.1M. I was convinced when I saw all the discounting last year and the beginning of this year that we were about to see higher priced homes go down, but to no avail just yet.

I’m hoping prices come down dramatically, but I just keep seeing people jump on the deals and I imagine many may be prepared to hold. Time will tell.

I’m interested though in knowing where these major discount homes are located, I’d like to visit just to get a sense of where the builders are in their willingness to deal.

Hype

[stop_the_bubble_hype]

Cyphire,

Where are these homes you mention? At the end of 2006, I was seeing big BIG discounts all over the place but not so much lately.

Case in point: We went to Talega in San Clemente in December. Saw a nice home priced about $1M, the builder was giving an incentive up to about $150K (maybe more) on the house and I believe it was snatched up for $900K’ish with some rate buy-down included. I called Talega recently (just to track the homes) they are down to their phase and selling models at an average price of $1.1M. I was convinced when I saw all the discounting last year and the beginning of this year that we were about to see higher priced homes go down, but to no avail just yet.

I’m hoping prices come down dramatically, but I just keep seeing people jump on the deals and I imagine many may be prepared to hold. Time will tell.

I’m interested though in knowing where these major discount homes are located, I’d like to visit just to get a sense of where the builders are in their willingness to deal.

Hype

[stop_the_bubble_hype]

SD,

I’d be very interested in seeing those cases.

Thanks, Hype

[stop_the_bubble_hype]

SD,

I’d be very interested in seeing those cases.

Thanks, Hype

[stop_the_bubble_hype]

We’ll see what appens at the end of the year with interest rates. That is the wild card that will decide what becomes of these ARM resets. I wouldn’t count the Fed’s out just yet and remember, rates are still low (historically speaking). From what I have seen over the past few years, the 10-year bond trends higher during the summer and decreases around mid-to-late July. We’ll see what happens.

[stop_the_bubble_hype]

We’ll see what appens at the end of the year with interest rates. That is the wild card that will decide what becomes of these ARM resets. I wouldn’t count the Fed’s out just yet and remember, rates are still low (historically speaking). From what I have seen over the past few years, the 10-year bond trends higher during the summer and decreases around mid-to-late July. We’ll see what happens.

[stop_the_bubble_hype]

I understand that many of you here are very strong in your convictions. I’m just sharing what I am seeing in the market. I wish everyone good luck, whether they decide to buy or rent. However, the steep drops that many here are projecting (and have been projecting for some time) are just not happening — not in areas others want to live in. Unless you are looking to buy 40-50 miles out, I’m just not seeing it.

Also, I don’t know many homebuyers today that are looking to turn a quick profit. I do see many who have already made a nice profit putting that money toward other homes, and this is one reason why prices continue to move.

As for Pulte in LCR, there are sold signs all over the place and their next available home is not ready until late 2007. Sorry SDRealtor, I think you need to do some better research.

Pulte in LCG is moving as well and inventory they had a few months back is completely gone. I’m not betting on 10-15% appreciation YOY, but I am betting against the declines you all suggest and stand by my earlier comment of backing Scruffy’s assessment.

[stop_the_bubble_hype]

I understand that many of you here are very strong in your convictions. I’m just sharing what I am seeing in the market. I wish everyone good luck, whether they decide to buy or rent. However, the steep drops that many here are projecting (and have been projecting for some time) are just not happening — not in areas others want to live in. Unless you are looking to buy 40-50 miles out, I’m just not seeing it.

Also, I don’t know many homebuyers today that are looking to turn a quick profit. I do see many who have already made a nice profit putting that money toward other homes, and this is one reason why prices continue to move.

As for Pulte in LCR, there are sold signs all over the place and their next available home is not ready until late 2007. Sorry SDRealtor, I think you need to do some better research.

Pulte in LCG is moving as well and inventory they had a few months back is completely gone. I’m not betting on 10-15% appreciation YOY, but I am betting against the declines you all suggest and stand by my earlier comment of backing Scruffy’s assessment.

[stop_the_bubble_hype]

P.S. The smaller homes (about 2000-2500 sq ft) were not moving. We asked why and the response was:

“People who bought up the bigger homes have a lot of equity that they are bringing to the table and they want a bigger house and are buying them up. The smaller homes are priced in the high 700’s to mid 800’s but most who are looking at those places are entry buyers who have much less money via downpayment.”

I suspect those sitting on a ton of equity will keep some of these places afloat for a long time to come.

Sorry Neeta about spelling your name wrong above.

Hype

[stop_the_bubble_hype]

P.S. The smaller homes (about 2000-2500 sq ft) were not moving. We asked why and the response was:

“People who bought up the bigger homes have a lot of equity that they are bringing to the table and they want a bigger house and are buying them up. The smaller homes are priced in the high 700’s to mid 800’s but most who are looking at those places are entry buyers who have much less money via downpayment.”

I suspect those sitting on a ton of equity will keep some of these places afloat for a long time to come.

Sorry Neeta about spelling your name wrong above.

Hype

[stop_the_bubble_hype]

I don’t know what planet most of you live on, but I have to agree with Scruffy and Neet.

Today my wife and I went to look at homes in Carmel Valley and we were absolutely shocked at the prices, but even more shocked by the fact that most of the homes in Pardee’s larger tract (Santa Rosa) were sold. They only have about 6 homes left ranging from $999K to $1.13M. The biggest lot was 8,300 sq ft and there were buyers there throughout our visit and more coming in as we left.

My wife asked about incentives and we were almost laughed out of the place. The agent told us that they were offering about 16K toward closing and maybe a flooring allocation. The agent said they were not having a problem selling so they were not forced to offer incentives.

I saw similar in Carlsbad at La Costa Greens and La Costa Ridge. Last week we drove to an open house in Encinitas Ranch and the home was selling for about $2.0-$2.2M — about 5K sq ft home on a small lot.

I’m sorry but we are just not seeing the discounting you all are speaking of in the more desirable areas.

We have been on the sidelines for a few years waiting for the crash, but will likely be purchasing within the next 6-12 months. If you’ve seen dramatic discounts in the areas I mention, please let me know.

Hype

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