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September 29, 2008 at 6:38 PM in reply to: Off Topic Clip of Peloski’s speech that cratered deal. She should resign. #278061September 29, 2008 at 6:38 PM in reply to: Off Topic Clip of Peloski’s speech that cratered deal. She should resign. #278098
stockstradr
ParticipantI just watched the Pelosi video of her speech on the floor of the house.
I think it is a great speech, a heroic and honest speech. Hooray for Pelosi!
Her speech is to blame for the failed vote? What a ridiculous idea that is.
The republicans don’t have the courage to vote yes, so they spin it, and try to place the blame for the failed vote upon Pelosi’s speech. Cheap political trickery.
September 29, 2008 at 6:38 PM in reply to: Off Topic Clip of Peloski’s speech that cratered deal. She should resign. #278110ParticipantI just watched the Pelosi video of her speech on the floor of the house.
I think it is a great speech, a heroic and honest speech. Hooray for Pelosi!
Her speech is to blame for the failed vote? What a ridiculous idea that is.
The republicans don’t have the courage to vote yes, so they spin it, and try to place the blame for the failed vote upon Pelosi’s speech. Cheap political trickery.
ParticipantSorry to break this news to yah regarding the Japanese economy (now in recession)
If that link doesn’t work, just look for the story at Marketwatch.com, TITLE: Survey likely points to recession in Japan
ParticipantSorry to break this news to yah regarding the Japanese economy (now in recession)
If that link doesn’t work, just look for the story at Marketwatch.com, TITLE: Survey likely points to recession in Japan
ParticipantSorry to break this news to yah regarding the Japanese economy (now in recession)
If that link doesn’t work, just look for the story at Marketwatch.com, TITLE: Survey likely points to recession in Japan
ParticipantSorry to break this news to yah regarding the Japanese economy (now in recession)
If that link doesn’t work, just look for the story at Marketwatch.com, TITLE: Survey likely points to recession in Japan
ParticipantSorry to break this news to yah regarding the Japanese economy (now in recession)
If that link doesn’t work, just look for the story at Marketwatch.com, TITLE: Survey likely points to recession in Japan
ParticipantI think it easy to predict what happens next for San Diego.
Unemployment rates climb ABOVE 10% during the next 12-18 months of recession.
So to the existing ramp-up in foreclosures due to subprime resets (and also well-employed homeowners walking away from upside-down mortgages), we now have the middle and upper-middle class losing their jobs. So we’ll finally see the previously strong upper-middle class real estate areas (Ex.: Carmel Valley) now lose significant value, but that could take twelve to eighteen months.
This analysis ignores the likely intervention of our government in writing down mortgages, as our government is now the major residential mortgage holder.
ParticipantI think it easy to predict what happens next for San Diego.
Unemployment rates climb ABOVE 10% during the next 12-18 months of recession.
So to the existing ramp-up in foreclosures due to subprime resets (and also well-employed homeowners walking away from upside-down mortgages), we now have the middle and upper-middle class losing their jobs. So we’ll finally see the previously strong upper-middle class real estate areas (Ex.: Carmel Valley) now lose significant value, but that could take twelve to eighteen months.
This analysis ignores the likely intervention of our government in writing down mortgages, as our government is now the major residential mortgage holder.
ParticipantI think it easy to predict what happens next for San Diego.
Unemployment rates climb ABOVE 10% during the next 12-18 months of recession.
So to the existing ramp-up in foreclosures due to subprime resets (and also well-employed homeowners walking away from upside-down mortgages), we now have the middle and upper-middle class losing their jobs. So we’ll finally see the previously strong upper-middle class real estate areas (Ex.: Carmel Valley) now lose significant value, but that could take twelve to eighteen months.
This analysis ignores the likely intervention of our government in writing down mortgages, as our government is now the major residential mortgage holder.
ParticipantI think it easy to predict what happens next for San Diego.
Unemployment rates climb ABOVE 10% during the next 12-18 months of recession.
So to the existing ramp-up in foreclosures due to subprime resets (and also well-employed homeowners walking away from upside-down mortgages), we now have the middle and upper-middle class losing their jobs. So we’ll finally see the previously strong upper-middle class real estate areas (Ex.: Carmel Valley) now lose significant value, but that could take twelve to eighteen months.
This analysis ignores the likely intervention of our government in writing down mortgages, as our government is now the major residential mortgage holder.
ParticipantI think it easy to predict what happens next for San Diego.
Unemployment rates climb ABOVE 10% during the next 12-18 months of recession.
So to the existing ramp-up in foreclosures due to subprime resets (and also well-employed homeowners walking away from upside-down mortgages), we now have the middle and upper-middle class losing their jobs. So we’ll finally see the previously strong upper-middle class real estate areas (Ex.: Carmel Valley) now lose significant value, but that could take twelve to eighteen months.
This analysis ignores the likely intervention of our government in writing down mortgages, as our government is now the major residential mortgage holder.
ParticipantSo as far as the market is concerned are we near a stock market bottom?
Roubini has been one of the most accurate economists, in terms of predicting these horrific events gripping our economy and financial markets.
To paraphrase his recent comments:
1) In case of NO MAJOR BAIL OUT OF FINANCIAL FIRMS/BANKS, then we might expect an L-shaped recession similar to what gripped the Japanese economy for a decade. This probably implies overall deflation, and certainly implies long-term deflation specifically for housing prices (which fell for over ten straight years in Japan)
2) In case of PASSAGE OF HELPFUL BAIL OUT OF FINANCIAL FIRMS/BANKS…then a deep U-shaped recession is still certain (probably has already been underway for several months) that lasts AT LEAST twelve to eighteen months, where countrywide unemployment would reach at least 8%.
Either way he remarks the stock markets can be expected to fall approximately 35% to 40% from their Oct ’07 highs, maybe more.
The NASDAQ is already down 30% off the Oct ’07 highs. So another bad day tomorrow and Roubini’s prediction would already be realized (for the NASDAQ). That would only have me conluding he’s under-estimated how far down this bear market will take stock values.
ParticipantSo as far as the market is concerned are we near a stock market bottom?
Roubini has been one of the most accurate economists, in terms of predicting these horrific events gripping our economy and financial markets.
To paraphrase his recent comments:
1) In case of NO MAJOR BAIL OUT OF FINANCIAL FIRMS/BANKS, then we might expect an L-shaped recession similar to what gripped the Japanese economy for a decade. This probably implies overall deflation, and certainly implies long-term deflation specifically for housing prices (which fell for over ten straight years in Japan)
2) In case of PASSAGE OF HELPFUL BAIL OUT OF FINANCIAL FIRMS/BANKS…then a deep U-shaped recession is still certain (probably has already been underway for several months) that lasts AT LEAST twelve to eighteen months, where countrywide unemployment would reach at least 8%.
Either way he remarks the stock markets can be expected to fall approximately 35% to 40% from their Oct ’07 highs, maybe more.
The NASDAQ is already down 30% off the Oct ’07 highs. So another bad day tomorrow and Roubini’s prediction would already be realized (for the NASDAQ). That would only have me conluding he’s under-estimated how far down this bear market will take stock values.
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