[spdrun]

So basically it retraced its losses this week, Dow still down 5% this year. Recent volatility is certainly a good sign for those who want a correction. And despite Yellen, the Fed voting members are actually more conservative this year, which doesn’t bode well for QE.

We’ll see next week, I guess. Bonus points if something disruptive happens at the Olympics, which is always a possibility considering the political situation in Russia and their general level of incompetent mismanagement.

[spdrun]

CBO report — tempest in a teapot. Real unemployment in the US is probably 10-15%. If some people get out of the labor force or go part-time, there will be others more than willing and able to take their places.

Secondly, you don’t need to get a subsidy to benefit from the exchanges. Being able to buy individual insurance at what are essentially group rates is a benefit in itself. I’d suspect that some of the “dropouts” will go on to start small businesses, which they weren’t previously able to, since they were priced out of the individual market due to pre-existing conditions or whatever. Better for them than being tied to a job that they hate by the insurance system, and going to work every day wanting to kick their boss’s teeth in.

Lastly, if this leads to more couples working less than two full-time jobs between them, it will probably be good for the kids and reduce marital stress. Yeah, I’m a liberal who’s a big believer in the one to 1.5-job family.

[spdrun]

Nationally, home values have gone up about 10-15% in that time period, and the increases are very local. Fortunately (for me as a potential buyer), for example, the Northeast is still in the midst of a foreclosure storm. Vacant homes are hitting the market, auction sites, and Homepath site like a January blizzard (blow baby blow). Don’t confuse what happened in San Diego with the US as a whole.

As far as stocks, don’t confuse speculation with reality. Also, look at levels of margin debt — pretty much at 2007 levels. Not a recipe for further gains.

I’d say that the economy is muddling along nationally. Not wonderful but not horrible either.

[spdrun]

SD Co has some pretty depressing areas as well, for all it’s worth. Think El Cajon.

[spdrun]

I heard Austin is nice. Not San Diego nice, and not necessarily pleasant to relocate to per force, but that it doesn’t meet the worse stereotypes of TX either.

[spdrun]

If a large proportion of a company’s employees refuse the package, the only “stick” will be the one that the CEO is being beaten with.

This being said, thankfully, I work mostly with small businesses whose owners would rather make sweet love to a rabid squirrel than leave NYC 🙂

[spdrun]

Are there enough other tech companies and startups in San Diego to absorb the workforce? Frankly, a change of firm you’re working for isn’t the end of the world.

This being said, if the majority of the workforce wants to stay in San Diego, they need to show some testicular fortitude and tell management “N-O! And I’m not training a replacement either. If you move, it was nice working for you, but I’m not lifting a pinky to help you.” If they’re faced with losing ~80% of their employees suddenly and having to hire and train a lot of people, they might be forced to reconsider.

BTW – refusal to relocate a significant distance is not grounds for denial of unemployment benefits, either. Unless the job contract required travel, a job 1500 miles away is not considered “suitable work.”

[spdrun]

Americans work too much as it is. Ideal situation would allow the average American to kick the fuck back and work 30-40 hours a week while being comfortable. This would of course require a bit of deflation.

Why is “productivity” vs enjoyment of what you have the be-all and end-all of society anyway? What’s wrong with a country of happy lotus-eaters?

Life in this country is already too risky and stressful for the average person with no safety net to speak of! Why make this situation worse?

[spdrun]

As to what I believe in? How about: buying when investors in a given asset are self-defenestrating, all the while screaming “JUMP! JUMP!” like a demonic 80s pop star.

[spdrun]

^^^

The social safety net of this country sucks painfully. Therefore, people should be encouraged so have at least 6 months to a year in savings, since they can’t count on assistance from other sources. This isn’t happening. If money becomes more of an investment, I’d say GOOD!

Secondly — savings can always be invested in a business venture or spent outright. Investing in debt isn’t the only way to make money.

Lack of debt would actually improve returns on property, since purchase prices would go down if people buy without leverage.

[spdrun]

A flood also lifts all boats. Personally, I’m hoping for another 2008-style low tide soon.

[spdrun]

I read “5-year fixed” as “fixed for five years.” ARMs definitely always existed, even one or two years ago.

[spdrun]

From my read, expenses on the home ex-utilities would be about $2750/mo. Home is at least a 4-bd/3-ba, I’d guess — would it really be that difficult to find a tenant for $2500/mo in a nice area? Keep in mind that even one bedrooms in nice areas are renting for at least a grand a month if not $1250.

[spdrun]

I didn’t read this as a 5-yr amortization period. I read it as a loan with a 30-yr amortization period (or perhaps interest only) where the rate resets after five years.

In the 30-yr case, I’m getting $1879/mo through the end of the 5-yr period.

[spdrun]

If you can rent it out to decent folk at a profit or at a wash, then keep it. If it will cost you more than a few hundred $ per month and you can sell it at a profit, then consider selling.

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