[spdrun]

Nope. 😉

[spdrun]

rockingtime: what major event ignited the run up in prices during 2013? I honestly don’t think there was one. Interest rates didn’t change that much due to QE3, and foreclosures/shorts didn’t run out at once.

Purely herd behavior, which can work in both directions. At least at the lower end, the sheep are now being a bit more judicious before buying.

AN: agreed. Have you actually tried to work with engineers who don’t speak the language well long-distance, and where their middleman overstates their qualifications? US-based engineers aren’t going anywhere fast.

[spdrun]

There are properties in the area that will come close, if not cash flow.

e.g., a 2/1.5 condo went contingent last month at $200k. HOA about $250/mo. Landlord insurance, about $15/mo. Taxes about $200/mo.

Market rent is $1600/mo and it’s in an easy area to rent. That’s close to 7% pro forma. Catch was that there was an existing tenant there at $1300/mo, but if one had some patience, they could do well.

[spdrun]

Hahahahaha. Can you just change your nick to ifyousayso already? 😉 kaisersayso would also work.

[spdrun]

Hate is the wrong word for what I feel. More obliviousness in this instance.

[spdrun]

Regardless, the fact that it (and others like it) is sitting is reflective of pricing conditions vs last year. Is your repetition of “sure if you say so” indicative of drain bramage or just lack of creativity?

Maybe you should spend some time hanging out with people not just like you to improve your creative prospects.

[spdrun]

I’m posting numbers, you’re quacking “sure if you say so” repeatedly like an 4 year old in need of sleep. Got any more persuasive arguments?

I’m saying that there seem to be a number that DIDN’T change hands and gave one example. What makes $200k the right price vs $140k, BTW? $240,000 sure wasn’t right with the rent you quoted. That would represent about a 4% return, which is good for parts of Manhattan, not for a secondary part of San Diego.

[spdrun]

Not gonna work unless Dodd-Frank is changed, and that’s not going away any time soon. Debt-to-income is basically set in stone. Even the move to 3% down payments is a bit of a sham, since (a) they existed before 2013 anyway, and (b) down payment is limited by debt-to-income and appraisal for most people.

Interesting fact: 6927 Amherst #16 sold for $240,000 in late 2014. The unit I posted is sitting at $237,000 for much longer. They might be lucky to get $200,000 or $220,000. Seems that there might be a bit less demand for any junk that comes onto the market this year vs last. Funny, that.

There was a brief period in 2013-2014 where one could find a buyer for any turd that was thrown onto the market at an insane price. This period has passed and the herd has stopped stampeding.

[spdrun]

I’m not sure if we’re in the $200k range for those condos. Note that this unit is NOT selling at $237k or anything close to it.

Banks can’t relax lending standards more without Dodd-Frank going away, which isn’t happening for another 2-3 years at least. We’d probably need a GOP president for that, and the GOP is no friend of the GSEs and Mel “the skell” Watt. GOP control might lead to relaxation, but it might also lead to a more restrictive/privatized market as well.

[spdrun]

You yourself seem to be predicting a slow decline. Are you just trolling at this point?

And the decline this time it seems will take a lot longer since most of the ones that were sketchly financed last time aren’t even active right now.

[spdrun]

I do say so. Here’s one example of what I’m talking about as far as lower-end condos still (not) selling below their 2000s peak…

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-140052722-6927_Amherst_3_San_Diego_CA_92115

Last sale, $308k in 2005. On market over 6 months for $237k.

I’m not looking for 60% off. I’m looking for 20-30% off property in blue-collar areas that I can rent without too much difficulty.

[spdrun]

Looking at lower-end condo prices, I’ve seen quite a few that sold for $50k in the mid 80s and went for half that in the early 90s. So at least in some segments, there was a drop from the 80s through the 90s as well.

[spdrun]

Sell by owner or by flat-fee broker and parasitic transaction costs go waaaay down 🙂

[spdrun]

Fact is, you sarcastic little snit, starting to see more short sales list at the lower end. Tick. Tock. Tick. Tock.

We’re talking about properties that are still 30% below what they borrowed. Read about what’s going on in NJ. Distress can be delayed, but eventually the sales will move forward.

[spdrun]

They’re still active in the form of HELOCs and protections from the 2013 foreclosure law running out. Also, even a 10-20% decline will put a lot more people under water again. This will of course more likely happen at the lower to middle end of the market.

[Author]

Posts